Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[PaulO]

19 hours ago, Canarse said:

A portion of every boom market is smoke and mirrors.  Speculators drive up prices along with consumers.  The jokers clearing the shelves of ER10 will get left holding the bag eventually.  On the other hand the short supply bourbons like BTAC and Pappy will continue to be rare by the producers design.  They keep supply low which drives a lot of talk...

Yes, this is part of it too.  We've also heard the stories of people in the supply chain giving the offer.  If you don't buy enough A, B, or C, you won't get any bottles of X, Y, or Z.

[starhopper]

Guilty as charged - I'm proudly contributing to the "bourbon boom"!

I am 57 years old an only started drinking bourbon in Oct of last year (2015).  It was never on my radar until I fell in love with the show "Justified" and was seeing just about every Buffalo Trace product in the show.  Curiosity got the best of me and I went out and bought a bottle of ETL, WT101 and BT...I was hooked.  After doing a lot of reading online, especially on THIS forum, I realized that I had come into this "hobby" in the middle of a "bourbon boom" where  it was becoming increasingly harder and harder to find once easily found bottles, and age statements were quickly disappearing - and prices were going up to boot.

I therefore took it upon myself to actively search out the bottles that many found desirable (ETL, EC12, ECBP, FRSmBLE, etc) and acquire them before they were no longer available, or their price was beyond my reach. I would buy just one, try it out, and if I liked it, I would go back and buy another four or five if the price was reasonable.  Unfortunately, the BTAC and Pappy lines are way beyond my ability to justify at current prices.

So, now after 5 months, I have a collection of about 75 bottles (much to the chagrin of my wife).  I think just about every distillery is represented in the collection.  My favorite bourbons so far are ECBP, Stagg Jr (batch 4), SAOS 10 and OGDBiB.

Do I feel guilty for "bunkering"? - Nope.  Do I feel lucky to have come into this "hobby" just in time to get my hands on some of the good stuff before it becomes more scarce and more expensive - you bet your bottle of PVW23 I do!

Cheers

Edited February 28, 2016 by starhopper

[Canarse]

28 minutes ago, starhopper said:

Guilty as charged - I'm proudly contributing to the "bourbon boom"!

I am 57 years old an only started drinking bourbon in Oct of last year (2015).  It was never on my radar until I fell in love with the show "Justified" and was seeing just about every Buffalo Trace product in the show.  Curiosity got the best of me and I went out and bought a bottle of ETL, WT101 and BT...I was hooked.  After doing a lot of reading online, especially on THIS forum, I realized that I had come into this "hobby" in the middle of a "bourbon boom" where  it was becoming increasingly harder and harder to find once easily found bottles, and age statements were quickly disappearing - and prices were going up to boot.

I therefore took it upon myself to actively search out the bottles that many found desirable (ETL, EC12, ECBP, FRSmBLE, etc) and acquire them before they were no longer available, or their price was beyond my reach. I would buy just one, try it out, and if I liked it, I would go back and buy another four or five if the price was reasonable.  Unfortunately, the BTAC and Pappy lines are way beyond my ability to justify at current prices.

So, now after 5 months, I have a collection of about 75 bottles (much to the chagrin of my wife).  I think just about every distillery is represented in the collection.  My favorite bourbons so far are ECBP, Stagg Jr (batch 4), SAOS 10 and OGDBiB.

Do I feel guilty for "bunkering"? - Nope.  Do I feel lucky to have come into this "hobby" just in time to get my hands on some of the good stuff before it becomes more scarce and more expensive - you bet your bottle of PVW23 I do!

Cheers

You are free to do as you wish, but I think you may regret spending all that money on booze that you will likely never have time to drink!  Many of the brands you mention will never go away, they can just be a challenge to find.  That will get better with time, not worse.  There are and will be many great bourbons available.  OTOH, I can see bunkering something that will never come back.  I grabbed a few handles of EC12.  

[starhopper]

9 minutes ago, Canarse said:

You are free to do as you wish, but I think you may regret spending all that money on booze that you will likely never have time to drink!  Many of the brands you mention will never go away, they can just be a challenge to find.  That will get better with time, not worse.  There are and will be many great bourbons available.  OTOH, I can see bunkering something that will never come back.  I grabbed a few handles of EC12.  

Fortunately, my wife has joined me in my new-found love of bourbon, so I think the bottles will last a few years at least, but not certainly my lifetime (knock on wood).  REALLY looking forward to the Smooth Ambler Bourbon that is distilled in house!

[Birdie1212]

This is my point from earlier, ignoring the members who started building bunkers years ago, just take those of us that joined this journey in the last 12 months. Say, for math sake, that is 25% of this forum, and 50% of those have no bunker that leaves 12.5% that have built a bunker somewhere between 75 and 100 bottles. (Canarse got to 75 in 5 months).

And say there is 1000 members on this board that means up to 12,500 bottles are off the shelf and in a closet.

Obviously I made the math up to prove a point but you see what I mean, if there was a way to plug in real numbers I bet the number of 12,500 is way low, I know people who are way past 100 bottles in 12 months.

And this is just our forum, how many people know others who are not part of this forum that have built bunkers.

Just imagine if just 20% of all the bottles in bunkers where put back on the shelf tomorrow.

 

[T Comp]

20 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

I know, Paul.  But, you said that when these shelf clearing people stop bunkering, "sales will drop to very low rates".   That is implying that the sales of today's boom are fueled primarily by these people bunkering, with seemingly no regard to the millions and millions of potentially new long term customers that are and will surely have bourbon as part of their spirits portfolio.  I simply reject that notion.  There are 1,000 of the latter for every 1 shelf clearing bunker builder. 

 

Your being conservative Joe. Probably more like 5,000 to 10,000. I've helped many who have discovered bourbon in the last couple of years and don't know one who has or would shelf clear. Most wouldn't think of  picking up even two of the same. BBQ and craft beer have been booming much longer than bourbon and no signs to me that they are peaking either. 

[Thig]

22 hours ago, Canarse said:

I have fun trying to find some of the rare bourbons, but I plan to drink them.

I really believe most people on this forum do plan to drink what they buy, that doesn't mean I don't buy multiples when I find one I like at a good price.  If there are flippers on here they probably are not brave (or stupid) enough to come out of the closet and admit it.

[Charlutz]

I think it's difficult to make conclusions on market trends based on anecdotal evidence among individuals, even a larger group of individuals as we have here on the forum. I think it's especially difficult to make those conclusions when a cross-section of this forum is decidedly not representative of the general public. This would be true when discussing stocks or something publicly traded, and even more so when discussing something where the only public market is gray market websites. 

People's motivations and actions are all over the map. I think it's fun to discuss purchases and motivations, but I think the reliability of conclusions drawn from those discussions are speculative. 

I have 3 bottles of eagle rare at this moment on my shelf and one in the trunk of my car (thanks Harry). There was a sale, I like how it tastes and most places charge $36 instead of the $22 I paid. Does my posting this here mean that more or less people will clear ER off the shelf the next time they see it?

[flahute]

8 minutes ago, Charlutz said:

I have 3 bottles of eagle rare at this moment on my shelf and one in the trunk of my car (thanks Harry). There was a sale, I like how it tastes and most places charge $36 instead of the $22 I paid. Does my posting this here mean that more or less people will clear ER off the shelf the next time they see it?

I think the shelf clearing of ER has already happened, so you're good.

[starhopper]

1 hour ago, flahute said:

I think the shelf clearing of ER has already happened, so you're good.

Eagle Rare is all over the place here in Middle Georgia - had no idea it was in demand!

[fishnbowljoe]

I've waited quite a while before posting here. I really wanted to see what others have to say, and I also had to sort out my own feelings, and figure out where I figure in to all this. I may have posted some of my comments elsewhere on the site previously, so please bear with me y'all.

As for the main topic here, IMHO, I think the boom has probably peaked. Peaked, subsided just a bit, and leveled off for the time being, to be more precise. At least for the near future, I think we're still going to see many of the same problems that we've been seeing for a while, although probably to a bit lesser of an extent. I still foresee rolling shortages on many offerings, but availability will more than likely be a little better than it has been. LE's are still LE's, and will still be hard to come by. Maybe even a little harder, considering that most, if not all distilleries are still suffering from a shortage of aged stocks. As far as any more bourbons losing their age statement, or proof point, that's anyone's guess. I think that all of the distilleries are doing what they can, in the best way they think possible to weather the storm, and still keep changes to a minimum. 

Now on to part two. Ahhhhhh…. the old bunkering and/or hoarding conundrum. Since the bunkering and hoarding factor has been related here, I reckon I'll weigh in on that too.  Do I have enough bourbon in my bunker, or should I buy more? Should I only buy more of what I like when I can, or should I buy stuff just because others are buying it too and they say it's good?  Gotta keep up with the Jones' ya' know. Been there. Done that. When I first joined this site, I really wanted to fit in. I asked questions. I read post after post. I searched the archives. And I bought anything and everything I could.  In a relatively short amount of time, my bunker swelled to around 200 bottles. Gone are those days for me. I finally "got it" so to speak. It's kinda like in the movie City Slickers, you just have to figure out what "it", or that "one" thing is. Bourbon Zen perhaps?   In one way or another, I've pared down my bunker to what I think is a more manageable, appropriate level. A little over half what it once was. Still, it's hard to drink or pare down your bunker when you keep buying things.  Some of the bourbons that I like are one's that are on allocation, or are in short supply around where I live. However, they will show up on the shelves here occasionally. Even though I may have a few of these in my bunker, and regardless of the fact that I probably have more than enough bourbon to last me the rest of my life, it's tough to resist buying a bottle or two. Especially when that little voice in the back of my head keeps telling me to go ahead and buy them because you don't know when you might see them again, if ever.  Yeah I know. This might be contradictory to what I said in the beginning of my post, but what the heck? You never can tell. 

Cheers! Joe

 

 

 

 

 

[Prof_Stack]

There's still some EC12 here in town, but the new NAS bottles are showing up, some with the store tag still showing EC12.

[flahute]

3 hours ago, starhopper said:

Eagle Rare is all over the place here in Middle Georgia - had no idea it was in demand!

There was some panic buying that occurred a year or more ago when news of the allocations and supply challenges were reported by BT in their yearly reports (or whatever that is), and when they moved the age statement which made people think it was precursor to it going away. Now that everyone has enough stashed, there's plenty available.

[mbroo5880i]

On ‎2‎/‎24‎/‎2016‎ ‎10‎:‎32‎:‎31‎, Paddy said:

It's still so bad here now that people will actually bid their children out for anything Weller. 

Speaking of, anybody need their yard mowed or driveway shoveled? 

In Indiana, you may be shoveling your driveway one day and mowing your lawn the next.

[mbroo5880i]

On ‎2‎/‎21‎/‎2016‎ ‎5‎:‎50‎:‎47‎, squire said:

Harry I think the renewed interest in cocktails may be a contributing factor.

It definitely is with respect to rye.  There are a lot of bars and restaurants who have shifted to rye as the source of alcohol in their cocktails.  They identify specific ryes used in the cocktails which in turn prompts the consumer to purchase the rye.

[Canarse]

11 hours ago, Birdie1212 said:

This is my point from earlier, ignoring the members who started building bunkers years ago, just take those of us that joined this journey in the last 12 months. Say, for math sake, that is 25% of this forum, and 50% of those have no bunker that leaves 12.5% that have built a bunker somewhere between 75 and 100 bottles. (Canarse got to 75 in 5 months).

 

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa, baby...that is not me.  

I have a long illustrious relationship with bourbon.  32 years and running.  My collection has swelled in the last couple of years, but mostly from trying many of the different bourbons now available.  Most are pretty good, but a few are definitely not to my liking.  I keep a 2-3 bottle supply of my favorites, but that's about it.  I did buy a few handles of EC12 because it's my favorite cocktail bourbon.  I don't clear shelves of ER10 or anything of that nature.  I have a couple unicorns that I bought at retail price back in the 90s and early 2000s.  I had no idea they would be worth thousands.  I think bourbon is better than ever.  Great products on the shelf.  That said, I do like tasting bourbon from decades ago.  I inherited a bottle of Beam from the 70s.  Good stuff, but pretty simplistic.  I would be glad to share a taste with anyone so interested and local.  

Sorry for the rant, but I've had a few samples tonight and saw my comments a bit misrepresented.  (Not intentionally I'm sure)  Cheers!

[Birdie1212]

My apologies Canarse you were in fact quoting Starhopper, did not mean to misrepresent you in any way.

[PaulO]

As to shortages, some of us I'm sure remember when Makers Mark and Knob Creek anounced shortages.  In real life, that means some stores were not able to buy as much as they wanted.  For us, it was definitely still around.  Maybe every store did not have full shelves.

It doesn't bother me if somebody wants a whole case or more of Eagle Rare.  It's not something I would buy.  I can think of some good reasons to do so: if a person really likes it and the sale price was low, could not find it locally, was going to serve it at a wedding or big party, etc...

[jsrudd]

I agree that the boom has peaked. For about six - eight months lots of normal (higher end but not LE) bottlings have been hard to find in Tokyo, but recently I've been seeing more and more on shelves. My reasoning is that America gets first crack at any supply and then, if there's any left over, Japan (and the rest of the world) gets some bottles.

   

[The Black Tot]

On 2/28/2016, 9:56:59, Richnimrod said:

I'd be happy to sign, if the e-mail wasn't a required field.    I don't care to publish it anybody and everybody, sorry.

Understood, Rich. I know you're in our corner.

[The Black Tot]

OK, let's have a go at this. There are going to be a lot of graphs in these next few posts. I'll try and break them up. I'm not very experienced with posting pics so bear with me.

I went to the DISCUS website, and found sales data for the various spirits categories from 2002-2015. Some of the categories didn't have 2015 data, and a few didn't even have 2014, but what data was there is included.

I also found a site that had a record of alcohol consumption in the US from right after prohibition to 2009. Not the most current, I'll allow, but the best I could find in the limited time I'm going to devote to this.

Source website for long term consumption trend here

What I found was very interesting, and a lot of it was rather surprising. Hopefully this similarly gives you guys something to go "hmm" about.

First, I'll start with surprise #1 for me:

Alcohol, and specifically spirits consumption, is on the rise (not surprising), BUT, we are far from the high water mark in US history for consumption (this I didn't know, because the peak was before my time).

I'll post this so far before I time out after wrestling with dropbox to get this to work!

[The Black Tot]

...right, looks like it's working so far.

So, this graph is interesting to me because from the articles you read, you'd think we were at a record high of alcohol sales in the US. But in fact, we're not. Peak consumption years appear to have been from the mid-60s to the mid-80s, with the spirits category taking the biggest nose-dive, and also the biggest ramp up in the 60s. What seems worthy of note is that the ramp up in spirits we've seen this last while is nothing compared to the ramp up in the 60's.

All this is before my time, but one of the sites I was reading said that through the 80's there was a large surge in people getting treatment for alcoholism, which kicked off the downward spirits trend, since a lot of the quantity in the category was driven by heavy users.

So, my argument about Americans being at the limits of what they can drink isn't in fact true, we're still well below our peak years, although those peak years were allegedly achieved significantly by problem drinkers, which are less socially tolerated these days? Anyone of course is welcome to discuss this - as I say, I wasn't there.

OK, that's point 1. Now check this out:

Here we have DISCUS data on the number of 9L cases (x1000) over the 2002-2015 period.

Very interesting indeed. We don't seem to be in a bourbon boom, we seem to be in a vodka boom, with a bourbon/Tennesee whiskey uptick! Also interesting was how closely the trend of tequila has followed bourbon during these last 13yrs.

America IS buying more spirits year over year. Here are the above graphs summed into a how many cases of general spirits are we buying:

So, we're on the increase for sure (driven mostly by vodka, but also the increases in bourbon/Tenn whiskey and tequila), but we're not at record levels for a little while yet.

(posting this now to keep it broken up a bit)

[tanstaafl2]

Interesting that rum seems to have flattened out a bit after stronger growth in the early 2000's. Perhaps a lot of rum drinkers have migrated to whiskey and tequila?

[The Black Tot]

Now, my thrust is to try to shed light on the bourbon boom specifically and how to get some data which points to how much is being hoarded.

Unfortunately this is kind of impossible to do, because there isn't any good data on sales vs. consumption. Consumption is evaluated based on sales - that's how it's been done. So as far as these stats are concerned, there are no bunkers, and people like me have been drinking more than 100 bottles/yr, haha.

HOWEVER, I now have another interesting series of graphs which break the spirit types up into value, premium, high premium, and super premium categories. And HERE we've got something to talk about, because it is pretty quickly evident that many of the spirit categories are growing case sales in the high premium and super premium categories, where the value and premium categories are in many cases flat and even sometimes negative.

 

 

[tanstaafl2]

I suppose it is worth noting, presuming it is true of course, that designations for value, premium, high premium, etc are based solely on what the bottle costs and have little or nothing to do with actual quality! Did you find the monetary values used to define each category?