Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[PaulO]

12 hours ago, Pjcowboy said:

Until you can walk in and buy any BT allocated bottle for MSRP, the boom is still alive.  Too many labels and bottles of also rans doen’t mean the demand for the true allocated bottles has died off. 

It comes down to some items being marketed as luxury goods.  The supply could be low for a variety of reasons.  One reason may even be the producer only makes and releases a relatively small quantity - to keep up the scarce image, justify prices.

Some BT brands, like BTAC and VW, are such a small percentage overall, supply and demand not likely to change much.

 

[M777]

Run of the mill releases (reg blanton's, any Weller, stagg ect) are being snatched in under 30 mins at all my local stores (multiple cases at a time even with the one bottle per customer limit). It's basically impossible to guess the relese time and be there within 20 mins. The best I've been able to do all year were two w12's, two eht smb's, one OF bp store pick, and one RR store pick (for limited releases). If anything I seen more activity on my local Fb bourbon groups lately vs last year. 

[Jazzhead]

As for special releases,  let 'em have their fun.   Those who seek to invest in bourbon have different objectives from those who seek to drink it.    

[PaulO]

As much as I don't want to fan the flames surrounding the craze of BT/Sazerac/Age International -

Their stuff sat on the shelf years ago.  OWA was the same price as regular MM (the only MM back then).

When items vanished, people thought the distillery would eventually catch up with demand.

No, those particular items have been rebranded as luxury goods.

I believe Chuck and the other people talking about full warehouses and production at capacity.  But that is not exactly the same.

[fishnbowljoe]

4 hours ago, PaulO said:

As much as I don't want to fan the flames surrounding the craze of BT/Sazerac/Age International -

Their stuff sat on the shelf years ago.  OWA was the same price as regular MM (the only MM back then).

When items vanished, people thought the distillery would eventually catch up with demand.

No, those particular items have been rebranded as luxury goods.

I believe Chuck and the other people talking about full warehouses and production at capacity.  But that is not exactly the same.

Not long ago I posted here in response to another members post. I mentioned that I had been in contact with Mark Brown, the CEO of Sazerac. I told Mark I’d been seeing allocated items more frequently and asked if supply was catching up to demand. His answer: “Yes, supply is beginning to catch up with demand.”

 

Items haven’t been rebranded as luxury goods. It’s tater stores and flippers (maybe even distributors) that are trying to perpetuate the image that there’s still not enough “good stuff” to go around. The don’t want to lose the cash cow wave they’ve been riding for a while now. Pretty sad. Even my local Binny’s is starting to get fed up with the flippers/collectors. One group in particular from a local auto dealership is a pain. Salesmen take a break and come over to check things out. If they find something, a call is made and more  people from the dealership come over and buy all they can. Binny’s has gotten wise. They’ve figured out who’s who, and the basic times when they’re likely to show up. They wait to put things out on the shelf. 
 

One more thing. Speaking of Blanton’s, I can go out to a few different stores right now and get a bottle. I won’t pay the prices of $299, $229, $189 etc though. I’ll wait. When Binny’s has it, I believe the price was around  $82.99 last I heard. Another stores price was $75.99 when in stock. The best is a store that has it at msrp, which was just raised to $72.99. 
 

Rant over. The Weller Whore is done for now. Carry on.

[PaulO]

I'll say rebranded as luxury goods is not a legal or official term, like single barrel or bottled in bond.  It's more a matter of opinion.

OWA case in point - used to be a competitor of MM.

After its' popularity greatly increased, BT decided not to up production, but to raise the retail price dramatically (like $25 to $60).  And good luck even finding it at that.  The packaging on the Weller line also changed.

One thing in defense of BT (or other distillers), they have very little control what happens once the distributor has the product.

[Kepler]

On 12/31/2024 at 11:29 AM, PaulO said:

I'll say rebranded as luxury goods is not a legal or official term, like single barrel or bottled in bond.  It's more a matter of opinion.

OWA case in point - used to be a competitor of MM.

After its' popularity greatly increased, BT decided not to up production, but to raise the retail price dramatically (like $25 to $60).  And good luck even finding it at that.  The packaging on the Weller line also changed.

One thing in defense of BT (or other distillers), they have very little control what happens once the distributor has the product.

 

Yeah I was also thinking OWA here.  BT definitely capitalized on the boom market by making this former run-of-the-mill bottle suddenly be a premium bottle and jacked up the price overnight.

[BourbonGuy]

America’s Bourbon Boom Is Over. Now the Hangover Is Here.

 

[RWBadley]

Yes it appears the market is softening. Craft producers will be hit hardest, not having the capital to sit on barrels for long. The Majors will ride it out. We'll see aged brands coming back and prices easing to whatever it takes to sale.

 

Prices at auction are softening- tho the truly rare items will remain pretty strong, even that will be hit. They're not making 2002 Stagg, 2008 Pappy 15yo, Hirsch Blue Wax 16, or Tornado Warehouse C anymore...

 

 

[Patrick_OKC]

12 hours ago, BourbonGuy said:

America’s Bourbon Boom Is Over. Now the Hangover Is Here.

 

I logged in to send the link to this WSJ article, but you beat be me to it. You must be drinking bourbon.

 

 

[RWBadley]

What timing this group has- Brown-Forman just announced major layoffs... Bummer, and the shutdown of its cooperage   That hurts

 

I guess it's Not just the small Craft hit hard with this one

Edited January 14 by RWBadley

[Richnimrod]

55 minutes ago, RWBadley said:

What timing this group has- Brown-Forman just announced major layoffs... Bummer, and the shutdown of its cooperage   That hurts

 

I guess it's Not just the small Craft hit hard with this one

BF Shutting Down it's Cooperage?!?!?!?!   What about JD's?   BF may be the largest American cooperage next behind Independent Stave.   

Ooooh, am I calling that wrong?   (Having a senior moment, maybe.)   I think it's Independent Stave . . . in Lebanon KY...?

[markandrex]

46 minutes ago, Richnimrod said:

BF Shutting Down it's Cooperage?!?!?!?!   What about JD's?   BF may be the largest American cooperage next behind Independent Stave.   

Ooooh, am I calling that wrong?   (Having a senior moment, maybe.)   I think it's Independent Stave . . . in Lebanon KY...?

From what I’ve read it is their Louisville cooperage with about 210 employees.  Their executives are being restructured/consolidated in roles also.

The 12% reduction would mean an additional 450 reduction is necessary.

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/life/food/spirits/bourbon/2025/01/14/brown-forman-to-close-louisville-cooperage-amid-strategic-initiatives/77690085007/

 

Edited January 14 by markandrex
Link added

[LW25]

15 minutes ago, markandrex said:

From what I’ve read it is their Louisville cooperage with about 125 employees.  Their executives are being restructured/consolidated in roles also.

Does this mean they still have another/other cooperages in operation?  Or they have enough inventory of barrels to last X amount of time, and then they'll reevaluate opening the Louisville one?  

[markandrex]

7 minutes ago, LW25 said:

Does this mean they still have another/other cooperages in operation?  Or they have enough inventory of barrels to last X amount of time, and then they'll reevaluate opening the Louisville one?  

The article talked like moving to a sourcing/ contract operation in Louisville.  No mention of the JD cooperage.

Another article spoke to selling off the Louisville cooperage site for an expected $30 million.

[markandrex]

The OF division has been selling a lot of their 10+ year offerings (1924 & OFPC) in the past few months.  I just got a 1924 today and three OFPC in 2024.

 

[0895]

2 hours ago, markandrex said:

The OF division has been selling a lot of their 10+ year offerings (1924 & OFPC) in the past few months.  I just got a 1924 today and three OFPC in 2024.

 

 

Do you know,

Are they offering PC via other outlets besides just after tours at the Louisville gift shop now?

[markandrex]

8 minutes ago, 0895 said:

Do you know,

Are they offering PC via other outlets besides just after tours at the Louisville gift shop now?

I’m not certain if Mo. is on their ship to state list but go their website and check and see.  If it is, sign up for notifications.  Online email with a time, normally just a few hours notice, to buy.  It is a zoo, but perseverance pays off.

 

I checked for you, no luck unless you have friends/family.  From their website:

At this time spirits are only legally permitted to be shipped to Kentucky, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Washington D.C. 

[Richnimrod]

5 hours ago, markandrex said:

The article talked like moving to a sourcing/ contract operation in Louisville.  No mention of the JD cooperage.

Another article spoke to selling off the Louisville cooperage site for an expected $30 million.

I believe BF sold off their Alabama cooperage last year . . . or even maybe in late '23.   Can't recall.    ...And, I'm too damned lazy to look it up.

[flahute]

2 hours ago, Richnimrod said:

I believe BF sold off their Alabama cooperage last year . . . or even maybe in late '23.   Can't recall.    ...And, I'm too damned lazy to look it up.

They did indeed sell it.

[Jazz June]

They sold it to ISC, but I was told it will still exclusively make barrels for JD.

[Skinsfan1311]

On 1/14/2025 at 2:28 PM, markandrex said:

From what I’ve read it is their Louisville cooperage with about 210 employees.  Their executives are being restructured/consolidated in roles also.

The 12% reduction would mean an additional 450 reduction is necessary.

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/life/food/spirits/bourbon/2025/01/14/brown-forman-to-close-louisville-cooperage-amid-strategic-initiatives/77690085007/

 

Well that sucks.

Mrs. Skinsfan & I  toured the cooperage back in 2019 and had a blast.  The people were friendly,  the Coopers are/were very skilled and it was amazing to watch them work.   I hope that the employees find good jobs elsewhere....

[VWIndy]

Love the throwback redskins hat.  Favorite running back as a kid was Larry Brown.  

 

[smokinjoe]

Chuck’s view of the situation.  
 

“But the sky is not falling.”
 

https://whiskyadvocate.com/Is-There-a-Whiskey-Glut

 

[Jazz June]

15 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

Chuck’s view of the situation.  
 

“But the sky is not falling.”
 

https://whiskyadvocate.com/Is-There-a-Whiskey-Glut

 

 

Good article, thanks for posting it. As usual, Chuck's view is well-informed and reasonable. I think he is right that the majors will not suffer nearly as badly as during the previous glut, but many of the craft and NDP entities are in trouble. It's like Las Vegas - when they relied primarily on gambling they were considered recession proof, but as they came to rely on dining and shopping for significant parts of their revenue, they opened themselves up more to broader economic forces. Large distillers selling mid and lower shelf whiskeys may take a hit, but it won't be a death blow. But smaller producers that rely on high bottle prices and people visiting their tasting rooms and distilleries, will be in trouble. I'm also dubious that we are anywhere near the end of LEs/new styles/experiments/finishes. I certainly wish we were as I strongly prefer good straight bourbon and rye, but those products get a lot of attention and are, at least for short bursts of time, the darlings of the market. Last year I bought only a single American whiskey from VA ABC that wasn't a group barrel pick - Wild Turkey 8/101 70th Anniversary. Drop the LE aspect of it off and that's what I'm looking for in a typical bourbon - quality distiller, good age, good proof, and a reasonable price ($50 being "reasonable" for a more everyday level product is certainly a change from only a few years ago, but that is where the market has gone).