Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Harry in WashDC]

On 8/1/2024 at 12:22 PM, Skinsfan1311 said:

I misspoke.

The 750s are ubiquitous, but I've never seen a handle of it.

 

AHA!!  Westbard is the store I hit the most, BUT it never carries OGD BIB or JW Dant honded.  Hence, Kensington (which I always have to Google/MapQuest to find) is an acceptable option.

[Kepler]

On 8/3/2024 at 4:11 PM, b1gcountry said:

I think the 4RSBBP will start to come down soon, but ECBP is at around $80 here. Russell's Single Barrel is 6yr at around $60. The RR10 is pretty cheap for 10 year, but it isn't barrel proof, and I usually prefer rare breed.

 

Some of those are really good value bourbons. That doesn't mean it's the standard though. 

 

WT and 4R are my two favorite distillers, and I don't mind paying a little premium over the value pours if I want a specific bottle. 

Russell's SiB is probably more like 8 year, not 6.

[Richnimrod]

Chuck Cowdery's publication will address this issue in the soon-to-be-in-my-mailbox edition of his Bourbon Country Reader.    I assume that, as usual his insights will offer an authoritative perspective about the 'next Bourbon glut', if that is how it plays out.   The teaser on Chuck's blog indicates it just might be becoming a 'glut'.   IMO, it's too soon to say so; but, as always, I'll defer to those with the best (inside?) info, ie. Chuck Cowdery.

[flahute]

18 hours ago, Kepler said:

Russell's SiB is probably more like 8 year, not 6.

Correct. Every RRSiB pick I've done has been in the 8 to low 9's

 

9 hours ago, Richnimrod said:

Chuck Cowdery's publication will address this issue in the soon-to-be-in-my-mailbox edition of his Bourbon Country Reader.    I assume that, as usual his insights will offer an authoritative perspective about the 'next Bourbon glut', if that is how it plays out.   The teaser on Chuck's blog indicates it just might be becoming a 'glut'.   IMO, it's too soon to say so; but, as always, I'll defer to those with the best (inside?) info, ie. Chuck Cowdery.

Check always said in the early to mid days of the boom that if bourbon ever really took off in China that we will not have made enough.

If it doesn't, we will have made too much. 

Will be curious to hear his thoughts!

[fishnbowljoe]

24 minutes ago, flahute said:

Correct. Every RRSiB pick I've done has been in the 8 to low 9's

 

Check always said in the early to mid days of the boom that if bourbon ever really took off in China that we will not have made enough.

If it doesn't, we will have made too much. 

Will be curious to hear his thoughts!

I believe at one time there was also talk of expanding the liquor market in India. At least in the states that allow it.

[Skinsfan1311]

3 minutes ago, fishnbowljoe said:

I believe at one time there was also talk of expanding the liquor market in India. At least in the states that allow it.

Most of my Indian friends drink Scotch.......

[lcpfratn]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:46 PM, Skinsfan1311 said:

Most of my Indian friends drink Scotch.......

Or one of the fine Single Malt whiskys made in India…such as Paul John, Amrut and others. 

[flahute]

Was at Total Wine today looking for rums. (Yes rum, don't worry, just looking to perfect my Mai Tai recipe.) I walked through the bourbon aisle - because that's what we do - and saw Henry McKenna on the shelf? Wow. Limit 1 per customer but still - first time it's been on the shelf since Minnick sent it to the stratosphere. 

[b1gcountry]

55 minutes ago, flahute said:

Was at Total Wine today looking for rums. (Yes rum, don't worry, just looking to perfect my Mai Tai recipe.) I walked through the bourbon aisle - because that's what we do - and saw Henry McKenna on the shelf? Wow. Limit 1 per customer but still - first time it's been on the shelf since Minnick sent it to the stratosphere. 

When you perfect it, let us know! 

[fishnbowljoe]

23 minutes ago, b1gcountry said:

When you perfect it, let us know! 

What needs perfecting? 🫨

[flahute]

55 minutes ago, b1gcountry said:

When you perfect it, let us know! 

Will do! I'm getting close!

[Clueby]

Got an email from local retailer that held a mini "lottery" and I had a RR15 waiting for me if I wanted. So I spent too much today! They had the OE7 for $37 as well while I was there. Haven't seen that south of $50 in a long time.

[Kepler]

5 minutes ago, Clueby said:

Got an email from local retailer that held a mini "lottery" and I had a RR15 waiting for me if I wanted. So I spent too much today! They had the OE7 for $37 as well while I was there. Haven't seen that south of $50 in a long time.

 

Great pickup on that RR15.  I'm still holding my breath for a phone call on that one.

 

[Clueby]

Well..I realize I put it in the wrong thread! But guess it is proof the boom is still going.

[Kepler]

2 minutes ago, Clueby said:

Well..I realize I put it in the wrong thread! But guess it is proof the boom is still going.

 

Maybe for the RR15 it's not the right thread, but for that OE7 price reduction to $37, it seem like the correct thread!

 

[Richnimrod]

OE7 @ $7?   Solid pour at reasonable cheddar!

[b1gcountry]

On 8/9/2024 at 10:55 PM, fishnbowljoe said:

What needs perfecting? 🫨

I started a new topic to keep this one on target...

[fishnbowljoe]

34 minutes ago, b1gcountry said:

I started a new topic to keep this one on target...

[Harry in WashDC]

On 8/6/2024 at 3:42 PM, fishnbowljoe said:

I believe at one time there was also talk of expanding the liquor market in India. At least in the states that allow it.

Living here in WashDC, my wife and I used to get exposed to LOTS of foreign mid-level business people and gov’t workers.  She worked for a nonprofit that did int’l hospitality and education; I hung around when she had to work a crowd- I was to keep them happy, included, and well fed.  India’s patent and trademark laws pretty much allow for lots of copying by them.  Plus, some of their “scotches and other brown whiskies” are pretty good.  It’s been awhile since I stood elbow to elbow with Indian subcontinent makers and drinkers, but back then, they weren’t too concerned about “foreign spirits” competition.  The Chinese?  When traveling there, I’ve never been treated to such bad, almost undrinkable spirits anyplace else including some US micro distillers that no longer exist.  Hence, I’d expect that market is ripe.  I wonder how Japanese whiskey is received over there.

[lemonman]

I was talking with the manager of the liquor section at a large store today; he's been there for years and we've chatted before. We shared our disgust at the absurd pricing on some bottles lately, and he told me his whiskey sales are down significantly. He also said the younger crowd is, in his opinion, moving on to tequila as the next big thing. Interesting perspective.

 

 

[smokinjoe]

9 minutes ago, lemonman said:

I was talking with the manager of the liquor section at a large store today; he's been there for years and we've chatted before. We shared our disgust at the absurd pricing on some bottles lately, and he told me his whiskey sales are down significantly. He also said the younger crowd is, in his opinion, moving on to tequila as the next big thing. Interesting perspective.

 

 

The young are chasing tequila as the next big thing.  .  Yeah, I think a some folks might be a decade, or so, ahead of y’all there.  

[lemonman]

Yeah, I knew it was popular, but just never paid much attention to it, I think it's hot garbage.

 

 

[Richnimrod]

Ta-Killya?   No thanx.   With the exception of a well-made Margharita.   Those find my favor for certain.   But, Tequila as a neat pour?  Reminds me of what I imagine drinking fuel oil might be like.

 

As to the Boom/Peak question posed by the thread title...

The latest edition of Chuck Cowdery's publication, The Bourbon Country Reader, does give some insight from an industry market analyst suggesting we're on the cusp of 'over-supply' being a problem... at least for independent/contract distillers, and particularly their NDP customers.   This opinion makes some projections, that although informed, are still prognostications, not certainties.   Chuck weighs in offering some slants to consider, as well.   The 'facts' cited indicate that supply is much higher at present than ever before, though.   Foreign markets may yet siphon off some of that excess, and some of the "bigs" are betting on at least some mitigation from that.    But, issues surrounding international trade may limit the effect, and in some instances certainly will.

My advice?    Buy what you like, drink those; and don't "invest" too heavily in 'on-spec', high-end bottles for your retirement income.   You, of course may feel differently about that strategy, and if one is selective enough and picks "winners" (as with the stock market) you may do well in spite of the risks.   My horizon isn't long enough for me to worry much about it.

[kcgumbohead]

7 hours ago, Richnimrod said:

Ta-Killya?   No thanx.   With the exception of a well-made Margharita.   Those find my favor for certain.   But, Tequila as a neat pour?  Reminds me of what I imagine drinking fuel oil might be like.

 

As to the Boom/Peak question posed by the thread title...

The latest edition of Chuck Cowdery's publication, The Bourbon Country Reader, does give some insight from an industry market analyst suggesting we're on the cusp of 'over-supply' being a problem... at least for independent/contract distillers, and particularly their NDP customers.   This opinion makes some projections, that although informed, are still prognostications, not certainties.   Chuck weighs in offering some slants to consider, as well.   The 'facts' cited indicate that supply is much higher at present than ever before, though.   Foreign markets may yet siphon off some of that excess, and some of the "bigs" are betting on at least some mitigation from that.    But, issues surrounding international trade may limit the effect, and in some instances certainly will.

My advice?    Buy what you like, drink those; and don't "invest" too heavily in 'on-spec', high-end bottles for your retirement income.   You, of course may feel differently about that strategy, and if one is selective enough and picks "winners" (as with the stock market) you may do well in spite of the risks.   My horizon isn't long enough for me to worry much about it.

I wonder if the owners of the recently launched Whiskey House of KY are finding a goods nights sleep a bit elusive these days?

[b1gcountry]

Tequila can be amazing. Some of the extra anejo has more in common with good bourbon than you might expect. Agave takes 10-12 years to reach maturity, so every quality Blanco has about as much care as a 12 year whiskey.