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lcpfratn

Weller price increase

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georgemoe
15 hours ago, lcpfratn said:


I’m confused because you are comparing the price of W12 that you bought this year to the price of OWA last year. W12 has always been higher priced than OWA, so I don’t get your point. Anyway, BT is raising the price on OWA substantially. The price increase may not have impacted all markets yet, but it’s coming. I haven’t heard of an official price increase on W12, but I can’t imagine that BT is going to price W12 lower than OWA, so I’m sure a price increase on W12 is imminent. Since OWA in my market is expected to be priced around $50 retail in my area, I expect W12 will be around $60. Of course some stores already price OWA and W12 higher than that anyway, but that’s a different issue.

I compared them because last year they were both $30 in my market. Sorry my post was confusing to you.

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Clueby
16 hours ago, lcpfratn said:


I’m confused because you are comparing the price of W12 that you bought this year to the price of OWA last year. W12 has always been higher priced than OWA, so I don’t get your point. Anyway, BT is raising the price on OWA substantially. The price increase may not have impacted all markets yet, but it’s coming. I haven’t heard of an official price increase on W12, but I can’t imagine that BT is going to price W12 lower than OWA, so I’m sure a price increase on W12 is imminent. Since OWA in my market is expected to be priced around $50 retail in my area, I expect W12 will be around $60. Of course some stores already price OWA and W12 higher than that anyway, but that’s a different issue.

Yeah..this isn't going to make much difference in the local market since many stores price OWA at $99 and W12 and $199 already.  $40 for OWA and $50 for W12 is the most I've ever historically gone and that was for a PS of OWA and a 1L of W12..and only because I was totally out.  My last bottles of OWA were in the $25-ish range and $20 for W12 in the spring.

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lcpfratn
Yeah..this isn't going to make much difference in the local market since many stores price OWA at $99 and W12 and $199 already.  $40 for OWA and $50 for W12 is the most I've ever historically gone and that was for a PS of OWA and a 1L of W12..and only because I was totally out.  My last bottles of OWA were in the $25-ish range and $20 for W12 in the spring.

It may not have an immediate effect on pricing in your area, but over time it will increase regular retail availability at the new higher price, which should eventually have a downward impact on secondary prices.
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Clueby
4 minutes ago, lcpfratn said:


It may not have an immediate effect on pricing in your area, but over time it will increase regular retail availability at the new higher price, which should eventually have a downward impact on secondary prices.

Possibly.  Bourbon, however, hasn't historically played by a lot of established economic rules!

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mosugoji64

Passed on OWA for $99 this past weekend. That's ridiculous, but $50 is still too much.

 

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fishnbowljoe

I’m not sure how things will play out, but I’m doing some “research” on the Weller price increase and the yearly amount of time that BT distills their wheated mashbill. If anything comes to fruition, I’ll post here ASAP.

 

Biba! Joe

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JoeTerp
19 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

That is just another example of a store gouging pricing in step with secondary pricing.  I don’t think that is reflective of any increase he may have received from this rumored increase from Sazerac.  

I don't really think this is in line with secondary as I believe secondary typically has OWA for around $70.

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smokinjoe
5 hours ago, JoeTerp said:

I don't really think this is in line with secondary as I believe secondary typically has OWA for around $70.

Thanks Joe.  I’m not involved with the secondary market, so I don’t know.  Better to have said, an example of store gouging pricing in step with secondary market mentality. 

OTOH, $70 ain’t really that bad for a buyer. :D

 

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JoeTerp
On 12/14/2018 at 8:23 AM, smokinjoe said:

Thanks Joe.  I’m not involved with the secondary market, so I don’t know.  Better to have said, an example of store gouging pricing in step with secondary market mentality. 

OTOH, $70 ain’t really that bad for a buyer. :D

 

I've seen a bunch of liquor stores price significantly above secondary and there are certainly people who buy on secondary that own liquor stores.  While it's not as profitable as receiving from the distributor you don't have to worry about allocations.

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fishnbowljoe

Okay, here's what I could find out. 

 

As far as a price increase, yes Sazerac will be adjusting/correcting prices. Saz is aware of retailers charging inflated prices, so it is hard to know how this will affect certain markets. 

 

I was kinda half right about the distillation time of their wheated mash bill. :huh: I thought it was around a month or so. They can usually distill their wheat requirements within an eight week period.

 

Biba! Joe

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tanstaafl2
15 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

Okay, here's what I could find out. 

 

As far as a price increase, yes Sazerac will be adjusting/correcting prices. Saz is aware of retailers charging inflated prices, so it is hard to know how this will affect certain markets. 

 

I was kinda half right about the distillation time of their wheated mash bill. :huh: I thought it was around a month or so. They can usually distill their wheat requirements within an eight week period.

 

Biba! Joe

Might have been only a month until the recent past and they have simply increased the amount of time for wheated bourbon production. If they can't meet demand then perhaps they can't meet their wheated requirements in an eight week period. Although it is important to remember as they increase (or decrease) production they are doing so whilst looking in their crystal ball to predict demand 6 years down the road. So maybe in a few years it will be more available. At the newly established market price of course!

 

Then again they may be perfectly happy with the amount they make because it generates the perception of something rare and allocated and therefore worth raising the price for. And making more wheated bourbon would also likely impact how much rye bourbon they can make (as well as the two rye whiskey mashbills they make although that is likely even less time than the wheated bourbon production) and cut into the availability of good old BT which can, for the moment, still generally be found in stock most of the time in most places at a reasonable price. Although it seems likely that will start going up in price too.

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bourbon4all

I wonder what the other six wheaters will be adjusted to before next October/November.

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Bbstout

I have heard rumors for awhile about this and have been sceptical untill I saw this posted in a local Facebook group. I googled Alan Tenniswood and it looks like he is a consumer affairs associate at Buffalo Trace.

 

I still find this quite surprising if true considering the backlash against Bookers doubling prices. 

 

I think this community shouldn't be effected considering the massive bunkers our members have. The one positive takeaway is that OWA will only be bottled at 750ml so potentially more bottles on the market.

Screenshot_2019-01-10-13-50-23.jpg

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mwmac

Almost doubling the price of OWA from current retail (in Idaho, where it is a lottery item already) is a little much to swallow especially when read with the sentence about "aren't doing this for more money".  From Buffalo Trace's perspective, this move will coincide nicely when the juice from their expansion (announced 2016) begins to enter the market (doubling price plus increase in supply).  From my perspective, I will continue my bourbon journey down other roads while enjoying sips from the Weller bunker while it lasts.

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fishnbowljoe

Just in case anyone is wondering, we had two threads going so I merged them.

 

Joe

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lcpfratn
Almost doubling the price of OWA from current retail (in Idaho, where it is a lottery item already) is a little much to swallow especially when read with the sentence about "aren't doing this for more money".  From Buffalo Trace's perspective, this move will coincide nicely when the juice from their expansion (announced 2016) begins to enter the market (doubling price plus increase in supply).  From my perspective, I will continue my bourbon journey down other roads while enjoying sips from the Weller bunker while it lasts.

I believe that the problem from Buffalo Trace/Sazerac’s perspective was that too much of the OWA was being priced at that price point or higher by some retailers and secondary flippers, so they decided to take some of the incentive away from the flippers to buy and resell in hopes that more people will be now able to get their hands on it at the retail level. In some markets, there were also many buyers that were buying more than they needed when they found it at the old price point (I’m guilty) in case the pricing increased or it became even harder to find. I think this will slow down the buying some, and those that haven’t been able to find it in the past may start finding it occasionally...albeit at a higher price.

I am surprised that the Weller 12 price wasn’t also increased, but that’s probably just the next shoe to drop.

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Bob_Loblaw

Totally missed this thread until today. I literally liquidated my entire stash of non store pick W107 this December!  Oops. Guess that’s just gonna be the side effect from thinning the bunker. 

 

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mbroo5880i

I am not certain this will impact the Indy market.  Weller rarely shows up here and when it does it has been selling for more than the new MSRPs.

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PaulO

Indy area gets a steady uninterrupted supply of ER 10 and BT at the same prices for many years.  Literally no shortage of it, even while other places grumble.

Meanwhile, Weller anything is like trying to buy some type of contraband.

OWA is non age stated mass produced item.  BT has had a long time to sort it out.  Don't be a sucker. 

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The Black Tot
On 12/9/2018 at 10:51 PM, PaulO said:

How difficult is it for BT to make Weller?  They can keep the shelves stocked with  Buffalo Trace and Eagle Rare - no problem.

OWA and SR are only around six years old since the age statement was dropped.

This ^

On 12/10/2018 at 10:33 PM, PaulO said:

Joe, with the demand, wouldn't you think they'd distill it more than one month a year.  That does help explain the short supply.

Mash bill #1 is my least favorite of the BT lineup.  Too bad that's the one always available.

And this ^

On 12/18/2018 at 9:41 AM, tanstaafl2 said:

 If they can't meet demand then perhaps they can't meet their wheated requirements in an eight week period.

And this^

 

If BT is still only making the wheated mashbill for less than 2mo/yr then that is some seriously bizarre decision making. Pappy went nuts more than 8 years ago. Any increase in wheated mashbill production would have been selling like hotcakes right now with a legit OWA 7yr age statement.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but they're expanding furiously right now, so they're certainly TRYING to exercise some foresight. Are they predicting that we're all going to suddenly switch to idolizing regular BT and ER?

 

Nearly any bourbon lover could have told them that the wheated recipe was a core brand strength for them. I can understand problems with MB2 since there may be some Age International business weirdness affecting that decision, but the wheated mashbill doesn't suffer from those restrictions (if in fact they are even there).

 

The only allocated BT bourbons from mashbill #1 are GTS and ER17. And if you made regular BT or ER allocated because you spent too much time making wheaters and MB#2, hardly anyone would care.

 

By raising the price to $50 for OWA instead of distilling it, say 4-6mo/yr (so that it can be the same price as BT and ER due to supply and efficiency), BT is taking one particular big risk, in the form of competition.

 

ANY NEW DISTILLERY CAN MAKE WHEATED BOURBON THAT IS 7YRS OLD AT THE $50 PRICE POINT 

 

In the wheater realm, they're now a non-craft distillery charging craft prices for non aged stated bourbon which is now at craft distillery age (5-6yrs).

 

So OK then - now Larceny is a WAY better deal for the wheated drinker. Larceny tastes different than Weller and Larceny doesn't float my boat - but it will float the boat of many a defector, now.

 

MGP has been making wheated mashbills to order for years now - those are about to come out of the back woods rack houses and potentially be a solid competitor.

 

With this move BT has opened the door for Castle and Key, the upcoming Jim Rutledge distillery, Bardstown Bourbon Co, and whoever else wants to have a go, to make a competitive or even lower-priced product and grab a whole heap of the Weller wheated prestige out from under them.

 

With the accelerating science of reverse-engineering yeast strains, it's only a matter of time before it's much easier and more accessible to make wheater bombs that taste like Stitzel Weller's finest.

 

BT has had the monopoly on the Weller profile for nearly 20 years. If they want to handle it by under-producing, allocating, and now overcharging, then someone will step in and fill the vacuum. That too is the "textbook example of how the thing is supposed to work with a limited supply and high demand product" 

 
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smokinjoe

You cant squeeze blood out of a turnip.  

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PaulO

I was remembering around ten or more years ago, when I started to get really interested in this.

Maker's Mark and OWA both sat on shelves with a similar price - just a little more than $20.  Weller seemed like a deal with the age statement and higher proof (somewhat different taste profile too).

Fast forward to today.  MM price and availability hasn't changed much, and they've introduced several new products.  How about a single barrel 7 year age stated 107 proof non-chill filtered MM?

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The Black Tot
1 hour ago, smokinjoe said:

You cant squeeze blood out of a turnip.  

...but you CAN squeeze some bourbon out of a stalk of wheat.

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lcpfratn
And this^
 
If BT is still only making the wheated mashbill for less than 2mo/yr then that is some seriously bizarre decision making. Pappy went nuts more than 8 years ago. Any increase in wheated mashbill production would have been selling like hotcakes right now with a legit OWA 7yr age statement.
 
Hindsight is 20/20, but they're expanding furiously right now, so they're certainly TRYING to exercise some foresight. Are they predicting that we're all going to suddenly switch to idolizing regular BT and ER?
 
Nearly any bourbon lover could have told them that the wheated recipe was a core brand strength for them. I can understand problems with MB2 since there may be some Age International business weirdness affecting that decision, but the wheated mashbill doesn't suffer from those restrictions (if in fact they are even there).
 
The only allocated BT bourbons from mashbill #1 are GTS and ER17. And if you made regular BT or ER allocated because you spent too much time making wheaters and MB#2, hardly anyone would care.
 
By raising the price to $50 for OWA instead of distilling it, say 4-6mo/yr (so that it can be the same price as BT and ER due to supply and efficiency), BT is taking one particular big risk, in the form of competition.
 
ANY NEW DISTILLERY CAN MAKE WHEATED BOURBON THAT IS 7YRS OLD AT THE $50 PRICE POINT 
 
In the wheater realm, they're now a non-craft distillery charging craft prices for non aged stated bourbon which is now at craft distillery age (5-6yrs).
 
So OK then - now Larceny is a WAY better deal for the wheated drinker. Larceny tastes different than Weller and Larceny doesn't float my boat - but it will float the boat of many a defector, now.
 
MGP has been making wheated mashbills to order for years now - those are about to come out of the back woods rack houses and potentially be a solid competitor.
 
With this move BT has opened the door for Castle and Key, the upcoming Jim Rutledge distillery, Bardstown Bourbon Co, and whoever else wants to have a go, to make a competitive or even lower-priced product and grab a whole heap of the Weller wheated prestige out from under them.
 
With the accelerating science of reverse-engineering yeast strains, it's only a matter of time before it's much easier and more accessible to make wheater bombs that taste like Stitzel Weller's finest.
 
BT has had the monopoly on the Weller profile for nearly 20 years. If they want to handle it by under-producing, allocating, and now overcharging, then someone will step in and fill the vacuum. That too is the "textbook example of how the thing is supposed to work with a limited supply and high demand product" 
 

I agree with a lot of this Paul, but believe it or not, BT mashbill #1 products are also allocated in many markets, so BT is behind the curve and playing catch-up on every mashbill in many markets.

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The Black Tot
7 minutes ago, lcpfratn said:


I agree with a lot of this Paul, but believe it or not, BT mashbill #1 products are also allocated in many markets, so BT is behind the curve and playing catch-up on every mashbill in many markets.

Perfect opportunity for an illustration:

 

1. Do you care that you can't get BT or ER in those markets?

2. If you could choose one to come back first, would it be BT/ER or OWA?

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