Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[LW25]

I've been recovering from some surgery and wasn't cleared to return to work yet, but I got a bit stir crazy at the house so I spent the last week doing a bit of hunting around maybe a dozen local stores, and talking with the owners/managers at each one specifically about this topic. 

 

In general they agreed that bourbon spending was down, but so far all that's translated to is that these stores are doing less barrel picks than before, and they aren't eagerly trying to add new SKU's to the shelves like they used to.  Prices haven't moved.....yet.  About half the owners said that they foresee no adjustment to pricing, because even if the balloon pops, everyday volume whiskey like Jack/Beam/Kentucky Gentleman are still going to sell, and allocated bourbon is still desirable and will still sell, just albeit to maybe a smaller group of customers.  The adjustment will be the mid-level bottles - Russells SB and Bakers 7 and Angel's Envy will get ordered less. Or the store may opt to not carry the entire Old Forester lineup anymore (drop Statesman and 1870) or get rid of products like Old Elk (stuff that's $50-80 that doesn't move fast) - get rid of the worst sellers and opt for a more stars & scrubs approach.   Some craft distillers like Barrell have already started dropping their prices, and the owners I talked to said if the producer drops it they'll obviously follow suit, but they don't expect that to happen frequently. 

 

The other half that do anticipate having to lower prices to move inventory said that they'll probably do it via bundling.  Instead of selling that Weller Antique for $100 when they get it, you'll have to buy it plus Larceny Small Batch + Maker's 46 for $180 or something along those lines.  Without outright saying it their feelings were "allocated bottles are still going to sell, and a bourbon enthusiast going for allocateds both has the money for and won't mind also picking up some other bottles in the process".  

 

No idea what the museums are going to do that are sitting on $800 CYPB's and $400 Rock Hill Farms.  I hope they hold those prices high until the end and take them home with them after their Going Out of Business Sale.

[Mule Skinner]

I saw a mark down on ECBP Private Barrel Selection.  $63.00  I had already bought a Rare Breed, so I passed on it.  

[mbroo5880i]

3 hours ago, Mule Skinner said:

I saw a mark down on ECBP Private Barrel Selection.  $63.00  I had already bought a Rare Breed, so I passed on it.  

 

That's still not a bad price on an ECBP Private Barrel.  I typically see them between $75 - $100.  The ages and proofs are all over the place.

[LW25]

On 10/23/2024 at 7:11 PM, mbroo5880i said:

 

That's still not a bad price on an ECBP Private Barrel.  I typically see them between $75 - $100.  The ages and proofs are all over the place.

Seems like every store that does picks has an EC pick that's still lingering on their shelf.  And yes, ages and proofs everywhere.  I kind of take the "I can't buy them all, so I won't buy any" approach, and just stick with ECBP instead. 

[JT3NSB]

No shortage of Hancocks in NM..Looks like the old days to me…

 

Edited October 26, 2024 by JT3NSB

[0895]

4 hours ago, JT3NSB said:

No shortage of Hancocks in NM..Looks like the old days to me…

 

 

In the old days it was $45 though…

[Richnimrod]

9 hours ago, JT3NSB said:

No shortage of Hancocks in NM..Looks like the old days to me…

 

THIS is a hyooooge shelf display of a Bourbon I see very rarely on shelves here in The Mitten State.  I can't recall ever seeing ANY brand having a shelf width like this dedicated to it.

Not that I'd stock up at a hundred bux.   At $45, I'd grab a few.

[jvd99]

I haven't been shopping the LS as much lately, but I went to pick up something yesterday and noticed the proliferation of new or returning age statements. I'm sure this has been brought up before, but seems like adding the age statements back is an indication supply levels are becoming healthier. Still not there yet though because lots of products still unavailable at retail.

[flahute]

2 hours ago, jvd99 said:

I haven't been shopping the LS as much lately, but I went to pick up something yesterday and noticed the proliferation of new or returning age statements. I'm sure this has been brought up before, but seems like adding the age statements back is an indication supply levels are becoming healthier. Still not there yet though because lots of products still unavailable at retail.

Fresh from the TTB

 

[smokinjoe]

42 minutes ago, flahute said:

Fresh from the TTB

 

Fitting that your post is on page 101 of this thread!   

[Richnimrod]

3 hours ago, jvd99 said:

I haven't been shopping the LS as much lately, but I went to pick up something yesterday and noticed the proliferation of new or returning age statements. I'm sure this has been brought up before, but seems like adding the age statements back is an indication supply levels are becoming healthier. Still not there yet though because lots of products still unavailable at retail.

If one subscribes to one of the multitude of conspiracy theories... The "shortages" that result in 'empty shelves', when it comes to certain brands may be intentional, albeit real.   ...Or according to another theory, artificial, and intentional.

Personally, I think it's likely just the slow-to-react industry lagging the production/consumption equation.

[jvd99]

Just seems like when supplies got tight a few years ago, age statements were the first to go. Lots of NAS products in the years since. The trend is in the other direction now it seems. If the producers overshoot their production increases, we could see supplies back to what was normal 7-10 years ago (but not prices) and maybe another glut

[flahute]

7 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

Fitting that your post is on page 101 of this thread!   

I totally planned that!

But wow, kudos to my brother for noticing that! I was clueless.

[mbroo5880i]

1 hour ago, flahute said:

I totally planned that!

But wow, kudos to my brother for noticing that! I was clueless.

 

I was totally awestruck by @smokinjoe's observation.  Totally cool.

[ThirstyinOhio]

My group has been inundated with private barrel offerings the last several months including Four Roses which had kept us shut out for the last several years (and they offered barrels to several other bars/groups in Ohio as well) so it feels like they are starting to feel the slow down.  Heaven Hill gave us a barrel pick of Elijah Craig Toasted Barrel Proof so maybe with all of the standard ECBP collecting dust on the shelves, they are hoping it inject some life into the EC line.    I also have a friend who owns a relatively new NDP and the barrels he has been offered lately has greatly increased in quantity and age with a big drop in cost.  I fully believe the bubble has popped.

[LW25]

2 hours ago, ThirstyinOhio said:

My group has been inundated with private barrel offerings the last several months including Four Roses which had kept us shut out for the last several years (and they offered barrels to several other bars/groups in Ohio as well) so it feels like they are starting to feel the slow down.  Heaven Hill gave us a barrel pick of Elijah Craig Toasted Barrel Proof so maybe with all of the standard ECBP collecting dust on the shelves, they are hoping it inject some life into the EC line.    I also have a friend who owns a relatively new NDP and the barrels he has been offered lately has greatly increased in quantity and age with a big drop in cost.  I fully believe the bubble has popped.

 

An EC Toasted Barrel Proof?!?!? Oh man now I gotta try this...

[ThirstyinOhio]

This pretty much says it all

 

https://www.fredminnick.com/2024/11/07/mgp-to-scale-back-whiskey-production-in-2025/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0xMp4dKJa18j_RGOFdWie2erDZhXt-Vq5OPcIfpIeSp_TEeW3aUXsW5rE_aem_xolR5uxbAe3Gvl6M3VLn9w

[jvd99]

On 10/28/2024 at 10:57 AM, ThirstyinOhio said:

My group has been inundated with private barrel offerings the last several months including Four Roses which had kept us shut out for the last several years (and they offered barrels to several other bars/groups in Ohio as well) so it feels like they are starting to feel the slow down.  Heaven Hill gave us a barrel pick of Elijah Craig Toasted Barrel Proof so maybe with all of the standard ECBP collecting dust on the shelves, they are hoping it inject some life into the EC line.    I also have a friend who owns a relatively new NDP and the barrels he has been offered lately has greatly increased in quantity and age with a big drop in cost.  I fully believe the bubble has popped.

EC18 has been popping up on the regular recently. Just waiting for the EC23 to come back….remember that one from years ago?

[fishnbowljoe]

The article by Fred mentions MGP. A semi-educated guess here is that their sales may have dropped for a couple of reasons. Some companies that used to buy distillate from them are now producing their own. Bardstown Bourbon Company, and probably others are contract distilling for various entities. MGP is still the big boy on the block, but others kids have moved into the neighborhood. Just my opinion, and like I said, a semi-educated guess. YMMV

[Kepler]

Same news about MGPi, different article

 

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2024/11/mgp-to-scale-down-whiskey-production/?fbclid=IwY2xjawGbZzJleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHSiq_evw0oZoS3WYlWYYwhIXP1nJbA9qYUNhBU2u99e42Arq1nv1rzqwmw_aem_2gXUxB_NPh7B5VwPIIU7EA

[PaulO]

Article says they plan to shift focus toward branded spirits.  Now that MGP owns Luxco and Limestone Branch, how will those be affected.  I'm particularly thinking Luxco, since they for years bought whiskey from HH to supply their brands, plus have been doing some distilling of their own.  The easy way to tell - anything that changes the label to read "Distilled in Indiana".

[Jazz June]

7 hours ago, PaulO said:

Article says they plan to shift focus toward branded spirits.  Now that MGP owns Luxco and Limestone Branch, how will those be affected.  I'm particularly thinking Luxco, since they for years bought whiskey from HH to supply their brands, plus have been doing some distilling of their own.  The easy way to tell - anything that changes the label to read "Distilled in Indiana".

It is tricky for them with the labeling rules on blending distillates from different states. I have been surprised they haven’t had more luck with growing their Remus and Rossville Union brands. Availability and the number of markets they are in have increased but neither brand seems to get much buzz. Remus Repeal was getting some attention but then they cut the quality and upped the price. The Gatsby Reserve is underwhelming and expensive. This new Babe Ruth release is young and really expensive. My thought would be to use the Sazerac model - put out some truly special quality releases at reasonable prices to build the hype, but that’s a bit of a longer term play and given the short term financial pressures, I’m guessing they are looking for quicker fixes.

[Richnimrod]

Just a thought here... if it's even that...

Sazerac runs their own business, and doesn't have a "board of directors" (if I understand it correctly) to demand profits NOW.   MGPi isn't in that same boat.   

Remember when 4-Roses parent company's BofD demanded Jim Rutledge's head instead of using that distiller's/blender's genius for all it was worth and listening to him rather than telling him he didn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.....   Now they're selling the future for big short term profits . . . IMO.    Anybody beating down the doors of private pick 4-R retailers any more?     Corporate boards aren't necessarily good for preserving quality . . . or even for ramping up demand long term.   I imagine once in while one will get it right, at least for a period of time; even  blind squirrel and all that, eh?

[mbroo5880i]

Despite a few antecdotes and wishful thinking, I think the boom still has legs.  We won't know when it peaked until well after it peaked. The peak will occur years before we realize it.

[flahute]

17 hours ago, Richnimrod said:

Anybody beating down the doors of private pick 4-R retailers any more?

Their private pick schedule is completely full so demand is still there.