Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[flahute]

1 hour ago, FacePlant said:

 

For me....Val Kilmer best role ever. I can't see Tombstone enough.......

Same!

[smokinjoe]

17 hours ago, FacePlant said:

 

For me....Val Kilmer best role ever. I can't see Tombstone enough. Thanks for this great reminder.

Underrated actor, and I agree, fantastic in Tombstone.  

 

[Jazz June]

I heard rumors about some pretty well known NDPs being close to bankruptcy. Things are definitely turning…

[smokinjoe]

4 hours ago, Jazz June said:

I heard rumors about some pretty well known NDPs being close to bankruptcy. Things are definitely turning…

Yep.  Signs that the “Bubble” may be/ is ending.  But, I’m also convinced we are in the midst of a glut, all around.  Supply has gone beyond demand.  I believe that the large legacies are busting at the seams.  And, some new stills aren’t even pumping out new make, yet.  

[Harry in WashDC]

Was in a Virginia ABC store today that I visit occasionally.  The store had my OGD BIB @ $25 and also had bunches of HH 7yr BIB @ $45 or so.  When asked, the clerk told me that ABC HQ was considering taking the HH 7 off allocation ALONG WITH Buffalo Trace brands.  "Including basic BT?" I asked.  "Yes."  Apparently.I was told, ABC HQ has received some indications from Saz/BT that regular deliveries of ordered brands may resume "soon" to replace the current quarter/semiannual allotments.  This fits with what I was told by another VA ABC store last week when I asked about multiple ER 10yrs sitting on a shelf - "Any limit?" ANS - No.

 

Now, if only they'd drop prices a bit.

 

 

[FasterHorses]

Store down here had an unplanned and uncelebrated release of w12 and stagg jr last week. Not normal at all. The HH7 and  HMcK10 is nearly in every other store  at this point. 

[meadeweber]

On 7/26/2024 at 9:54 PM, Harry in WashDC said:

Was in a Virginia ABC store today that I visit occasionally.  The store had my OGD BIB @ $25 and also had bunches of HH 7yr BIB @ $45 or so.  When asked, the clerk told me that ABC HQ was considering taking the HH 7 off allocation ALONG WITH Buffalo Trace brands.  "Including basic BT?" I asked.  "Yes."  Apparently.I was told, ABC HQ has received some indications from Saz/BT that regular deliveries of ordered brands may resume "soon" to replace the current quarter/semiannual allotments.  This fits with what I was told by another VA ABC store last week when I asked about multiple ER 10yrs sitting on a shelf - "Any limit?" ANS - No.

 

Now, if only they'd drop prices a bit.

 

 

Somewhat related to this: Baby Saz in both the 750 ml and handle have been on the shelf and "no limit" for the past probably 9 months here in MD.

[Skinsfan1311]

On 7/29/2024 at 1:37 PM, meadeweber said:

Somewhat related to this: Baby Saz in both the 750 ml and handle have been on the shelf and "no limit" for the past probably 9 months here in MD.

Yeah...it's pretty easy to find in the Baltimore Metro area... Pikesville Rye and JDSBBP are on a lot of shelves too.

[Harry in WashDC]

On 7/30/2024 at 7:17 PM, Skinsfan1311 said:

Yeah...it's pretty easy to find in the Baltimore Metro area... Pikesville Rye and JDSBBP are on a lot of shelves too.

I’ve not seen the Baby Saz handles near WDC, but the 750s and the Pikesville and that JD are available without too much hunting.  Maybe the lack of handles is a Montgomery County thing.  Going to have to ask . . .

 

[Kepler]

You all saying Baby Saz and JDSiBBP were sometimes hard to find blows my mind. 

[b1gcountry]

Baby saz in st louis was pretty rare. 

[Richnimrod]

FWIW, my experience in The Mitten State was that Baby Saz was very infrequently available for quite a few years.   ...Not that I ever really sought it out.     In fact during that time, I don't recall seeing it 'on a shelf' at all, until about a year ago or so.    I don't love it all that much, but usually have had one open for its easy-drinkability, as well as for guests who prefer toned-down whiskey when they have a neat pour.

[Double C's]

There was a news story the other day that Diageo report a sales drop from the first time since the pandemic started. This could be an overall indicator that alcohol consumption as a whole may be going down, which should lead to more bottles on the shelf for us to buy. I am seeing big sales coming from the distributors on a few bourbons in my area recently, which brings hope that certain products are not selling like the producers had hoped for. Couple these things with all the production increases that the legacy distillers have been doing for a while should lead to us starting to see those allocated bottles starting to become available on a more frequent basis. I believe the allocated bourbon availability won't improve overnight, but I am hopeful that over the next year or two, things will greatly improve. For now, I am happy to just see some of the prices coming down on certain bottles.

[meadeweber]

13 hours ago, Harry in WashDC said:

I’ve not seen the Baby Saz handles near WDC, but the 750s and the Pikesville and that JD are available without too much hunting.  Maybe the lack of handles is a Montgomery County thing.  Going to have to ask . . .

 

Harry, MoCo is where I've seen the Baby Saz handles.  It's pretty much the only stores I go into now since I have almost reached bourbon zen and don't really hunt much anymore.  You can check their website for availability in stores near you if you are looking for it.  I find that makes a nice old fashioned. 

[Skinsfan1311]

13 hours ago, Harry in WashDC said:

I’ve not seen the Baby Saz handles near WDC, but the 750s and the Pikesville and that JD are available without too much hunting.  Maybe the lack of handles is a Montgomery County thing.  Going to have to ask . . .

 

I misspoke.

The 750s are ubiquitous, but I've never seen a handle of it.

 

[Richnimrod]

Just my own opinion, based upon only my experience and common sense (if I have any of that?).   The idea of allocating, and 'shortages' or limited releases are all marketing/sales/profits genius, whether or not they are intentional even a little bit.    Anybody paying attention has seen, from a long while ago, that these strategies allow for premium prices.   ...Premium prices not necessarily based, or at least not entirely based, on increased costs to produce, package and distribute such products.    The very fact they are often hard to obtain, and often seen as 'must-haves' (or whatever one might want to call 'em) allows for the makers to charge a significant premium.    This makes 'em very profitable, therefore an ideal strategy.   Couple these factors with the relatively recent rise in popularity of brown spirits (especially premium Bourbons) driven by often younger buyers with little experience and lotsa spendable income, and you have a situation unlikely to change anytime soon.   

Now, don't get me wrong.    The lower shelf offerings from the legacy distillers will likely suffer first and most from a "glut" (though this will never again be anything like the 70's thru90's) if/when the 'boom' does a meaningful slowdown.    I predict that won't mean the high-end (expensive, rare) stuff will get less expensive, nor more very much more readily available.    Those factors may eventually moderate; but, it will be slow and fitful; and, I doubt I will live long enough to see it in any meaningful way.   Not that it matters.   I have so much Bourbon, I probably never have to buy another bottle. HA!

[meadeweber]

5 minutes ago, Richnimrod said:

 I have so much Bourbon, I probably never have to buy another bottle. HA!

But you will!  Hahahaha

 

[0895]

14 hours ago, Kepler said:

You all saying Baby Saz and JDSiBBP were sometimes hard to find blows my mind. 

 

13 hours ago, b1gcountry said:

Baby saz in st louis was pretty rare. 

It was definitely a lottery bottle for years in STL.

Still not what I would describe as common yet.

[FasterHorses]

Email went out at 2pm for monthly allocations. I was hoping theyd do it yesterday when i was off. Really wanted a shot at RR15. The manager is a friend and i stopped by to see him at 7pm. Still cases of blantons and baby blantons left, multiples of EHT Sm Batch, multiples of kosher rye and straight rye, cases of ER, wsr, and blood oath still sit unpurchased at msrp. Glut is upon us. 

[mbroo5880i]

On 7/26/2024 at 9:54 PM, Harry in WashDC said:

Was in a Virginia ABC store today that I visit occasionally.  The store had my OGD BIB @ $25 and also had bunches of HH 7yr BIB @ $45 or so.  When asked, the clerk told me that ABC HQ was considering taking the HH 7 off allocation ALONG WITH Buffalo Trace brands.  "Including basic BT?" I asked.  "Yes."  Apparently.I was told, ABC HQ has received some indications from Saz/BT that regular deliveries of ordered brands may resume "soon" to replace the current quarter/semiannual allotments.  This fits with what I was told by another VA ABC store last week when I asked about multiple ER 10yrs sitting on a shelf - "Any limit?" ANS - No.

 

Now, if only they'd drop prices a bit.

 

OGD BIB has been on the shelves in most stores in Indy for $25 for awhile.  HH7 is everywhere and has been for awhile.  I can find it for $40.  Baby Saz and BT sporadically disappear but show up quite often with BT @ $25 and Baby Saz $25-30.  ER is still allocated.  Blanton's and Stagg Jr. are lottery stuff.  

 

Availability of old favorites continues to improve as Taters continue to chase FR BS Store Picks @ $120 or anything from a major that is over $100.  I don't even think they know what they are buying.  It could be Heaven Hill Liquid Shit in a Bottle.  As long as it is a label that they have never seen, there are less than 4 bottles on the shelf, and the price is over $100, they are all over it.  

 

As soon as they move out of my way, I grab a bottle of OGD 114 for $25.  They look at me like I am an old timer who just doesn't get it.  They are right.  I just don't get Heaven Hill Liquid Shit in a Bottle for $100 when I can get OGD 114 for $25.  Being a Cheap Bastard doesn't even figure into the equation.  Common sense does. 

[b1gcountry]

OGD BIB and OGD114 are both around the same price here, which is kind of amazing. I actually like the BIB better. 

 

I have to say, I like the $100 bottle from any of the majors over just about any of the $100 bottles from the craft distillers.

 

I will say, the BT is definitely worth the $25. I actually think $100 is a fair price for 4R Private Barrels too, but I definitely perverted $60.

[kcgumbohead]

I disagree that 4R SBBP is fair. 10-11 yrs ago even at the distillery ( which used to be the only place these were available) it was 50 something and 4R wasn’t losing money. The program expanded and for a good while it seemed every LBS had a pick or 2, they were consistently good-great and about 55. Even factoring in inflation, glass shortages or whatever else, 100.00 is too damn much. I love 4R and thankfully stocked up back in the day, as it is 4R and WT are my top 2 and I would continue buying today were it not for the excessive pricing. (WT thankfully remains mostly sane excluding MK and extra aged RR variants).

The market will bear what it will but this market is IMO distorted. While Pappy, BTAC or others may be the “King” to many palates a great 4RSBBS is my personal peak for bourbon nirvana but I will not support extravagant pricing. Where these at say 70-75 I’d be a buyer. ECBP is 75 and 12ish yrs, my personal preference for 4R has proven over many bottles/ recipes to be 10.5yrs. 100+ is too much and my sincere hope is that demand slows and pricing will recede to a more reasonable level, at that point I will return, if not vive le bunker!!

[b1gcountry]

17 hours ago, b1gcountry said:

 

I will say, the BT is definitely worth the $25. I actually think $100 is a fair price for 4R Private Barrels too, but I definitely perverted $60.

Lol.  "Preferred"  !!!

Edited August 3 by b1gcountry

[b1gcountry]

4 hours ago, kcgumbohead said:

I disagree that 4R SBBP is fair. 10-11 yrs ago even at the distillery ( which used to be the only place these were available) it was 50 something and 4R wasn’t losing money. The program expanded and for a good while it seemed every LBS had a pick or 2, they were consistently good-great and about 55. Even factoring in inflation, glass shortages or whatever else, 100.00 is too damn much. I love 4R and thankfully stocked up back in the day, as it is 4R and WT are my top 2 and I would continue buying today were it not for the excessive pricing. (WT thankfully remains mostly sane excluding MK and extra aged RR variants).

The market will bear what it will but this market is IMO distorted. While Pappy, BTAC or others may be the “King” to many palates a great 4RSBBS is my personal peak for bourbon nirvana but I will not support extravagant pricing. Where these at say 70-75 I’d be a buyer. ECBP is 75 and 12ish yrs, my personal preference for 4R has proven over many bottles/ recipes to be 10.5yrs. 100+ is too much and my sincere hope is that demand slows and pricing will recede to a more reasonable level, at that point I will return, if not vive le bunker!!

I think the 4RSBBP will start to come down soon, but ECBP is at around $80 here. Russell's Single Barrel is 6yr at around $60. The RR10 is pretty cheap for 10 year, but it isn't barrel proof, and I usually prefer rare breed.

 

Some of those are really good value bourbons. That doesn't mean it's the standard though. 

 

WT and 4R are my two favorite distillers, and I don't mind paying a little premium over the value pours if I want a specific bottle. 

[mbroo5880i]

I am an avowed Cheap Bastard.  However, in today's price environment, I can certainly understand paying $100 for a FR BS store pick.  It won't be me.  But, I don't believe the price is out of line with some of the other NDP stuff that sells for more.  It is our money.  We are all free to spend it how we wish.