Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[The Black Tot]

I'm waiting for the Cliff Notes version...

Cliff notes version: The author is stuck on a boat off the coast of Mexico with nothing else to do, and even less to drink.

[smokinjoe]

Cliff notes version: The author is stuck on a boat off the coast of Mexico with nothing else to do, and even less to drink.

Heehee. Well, a toast to your speedy and safe return to the sanctity of your bunker.

:toast:

[BigBoldBully]

Nice posts, Tot! Doesn't bother me that there are so many ways of defining Boom and Bubble, by focusing on different aspects of the situation. One thing I failed to clarify in my most recent post, caused by a misguided attempt at poetic brevity, is what I meant by individual Bubbles surviving the demise of the Boom. I was thinking of things such as disproportionate demand (in historic terms) for things like Pappy and BTAC, and an arguably unreasonable willingness for many to try dubious (for the price) offerings like Blood Oath and extremely young "craft" whiskey. Those areas of undue demand, Bubbles if you will, could conceivably persist after the greater boom has subsided (whether that occurs due to people moving on to something else, atrophied foreign demand, or bunkerers taking time out to imbibe their accumulated stocks).

It was late so it tickled my imagination to see this as the leftover froth laying on the beach after the crashing of an enormous wave.

[flahute]

Every time we think we've reached a new high (the peak?), or "low" as the case may be, something new comes along to tell us we're not quite there yet.

Seen on reddit, so I can't confirm the truth, but seems pretty legit: people following trucks and waiting in line for OFBB, and those who missed out were given this shirt.....

[oke&coke]

That is actually pretty funny.

[BigBoldBully]

I'd be disappointed if I went in hopes of a free t-shirt and instead got a chance to buy OFBB at the current MSRP.

[The Black Tot]

I'd be disappointed if I went in hopes of a free t-shirt and instead got a chance to buy OFBB at the current MSRP.

[jvd99]

Can't imagine us getting over the giant hump-of-a-boom for 3-4 more years. Insatiable isn't a strong enough descriptor for the hoard that has descended. Example - I made it to a store down south for the very first time a few weeks ago. Had known about it for a while but it's about an hour south and I never found a good amount of free time to go until then. Happen to find a few Four Roses picks, one with a particularly unique label and backstory. Grabbed a couple bottles because it's my favorite of the 10 recipes.

I get home, check Facebook, and bang! A guy posts the same bottle in quantity. Now he was neither flipping (thankfully) nor discussing the quality of that particular juice but I know for a fact that the store sold out the very next day. Because of a single, comment-less, picture. Apparently that is all that's all you need to speculate these days.

That particular bottle is excellent. Finished one off and have another in reserve. It's also possible the $44.95 price tag for a FR private barrel had almost as much, if not more, influence on it flying off the shelf considering Binny's is about $20 more expensive. However, I've never seen a barrel sell out so quickly from that location. Too bad social media is screwing with the supply there.

[jp_stargazer]

Speaking of OFBB, I was fortunate enough to get a bottle this year (or unfortunate perhaps considering MSRP). I had talked to a store employee and got on "the list" to have a bottle on hold if they received an allocation. Sure enough, I got a call one morning around 10:00 that they received 6 bottles and I was one of 6 people on the list. I told the employee I'd be in that afternoon to pick it up, then gleefully posted on the OFBB thread in the Premium/Specialty board. I went in that afternoon after work to get my bottle and the employee was telling me I was lucky to be one of the 6 to get a bottle (and I was the last to pick mine up). She said, "We've had dozens of calls today asking if we have it and we had to tell them all the bottles were already on hold for people."

Now 5 other people received a bottle from that store, so any one of them could have announced it to bourbon-loving friends. But part of me knows that there are likely flippers lurking in the Premium/Specialty board, using it as a source of information on where to hunt. I'm guessing the same thing with Facebook groups, Reddit, etc. Was that the case here? Coincidental that the day it arrives (without fanfare) the store received a bunch of calls. Or maybe I'm just making this little conspiracy up in my head.

I guess in summary, when I started seriously getting into bourbon (not just having a couple basic bottles for mixing after college), I never thought it would be this intense. I'm sure it was this way ~2.5 years ago when I started, it was just not apparent to my noob self at the time. Maybe it's the ease with which we have access to social media, blog news and reviews, and great forums like this one, which play a part in enabling the "buy quickly, buy in quantity" mentality. (To be clear, I am not condemning any of those methods for learning about or discussing bourbon.) Certainly third party sales are aided by the internet. Also I feel someone in this to make a profit on flipping bottles will always have more time and motivation than I do when hunting limited bottles. I'm okay with that though, I have plenty of things to enjoy that are easily obtainable and it makes the limited bottles I do find even sweeter.

TL;DR - OFBB story, conspiracy theory, and "kids these days" rambling

Jason

[BigBoldBully]

Jason, I suspect there are indeed some "flipper" types (as well as legit bourbon enthusiasts) reacting to posts in the premium area. Maybe at this point the requirement of being a member to view is not a high enough bar, and there should be a 100 post minimum added or some other minimal insurance of genuine interest in bourbondom?

[RWBadley]

Every time we think we've reached a new high (the peak?), or "low" as the case may be, something new comes along to tell us we're not quite there yet.

Seen on reddit, so I can't confirm the truth, but seems pretty legit: people following trucks and waiting in line for OFBB, and those who missed out were given this shirt.....

I'd rather have the shirt.

I Bet we'll see it on Ebay bid up to $150 :cool:

[BonVivant84]

Every time we think we've reached a new high (the peak?), or "low" as the case may be, something new comes along to tell us we're not quite there yet.

Seen on reddit, so I can't confirm the truth, but seems pretty legit: people following trucks and waiting in line for OFBB, and those who missed out were given this shirt.....

I really like this shirt, there was another one i saw from a liquor store that said in huge letters YES and then in small print.....we have NO Pappy. It's only healthy to laugh at the crazyness

[babermac]

Afternoon, everyone.

This has been a really interesting thread. Just wanted to add this little tidbit:

On another popular whiskey forum this afternoon someone posted a driver's seat bottle shot of Elijah Craig 23 Year with the heading, "Local place had this, any good?"

Not meaning to talk smack at all, but if that doesn't perfectly sum up the state of things I don't know what does. That's a $200 bottle purchased blind, with the question of whether or not it tastes good posed after the fact. This just goes to show how much demand there is for anything a) aged more than 12 years and priced higher than $50. I'm sure it was those two factors that told this person he/she better go ahead and buy it and ask questions later. (Plus, the existence of the secondary market ensures that if the consensus is, "not worth it", he/she can probably offload it and get the money back.)

I can't imagine there were many folks making $100+ purchases blind a handful of years ago—at least not in the American whiskey world. Correct me if I'm wrong, of course.

Loving this forum, by the way. Time to drink some $20 bourbon. =)

- DB

[squire]

Welcome aboard DB, well, let's hope he opens it and enjoys his purchase.

[The Black Tot]

True, babermac.

This is also the sort of behavior that people eventually grow out of as they get experienced - it doesn't even take very long.

I bought an EC22 and was all jazzed about it - it wasn't my thing. Nothing "wrong" with it, it just didn't float my boat. At EC12 prices, EC is for me. Above that, it's not my brand of personal choice.

I think a lot of the bubble wave of consumers will soon be having similar experiences - with many of them not caring for the stuff they bought (maybe they'll not care for MY faves - that's how it goes).

Probably the best/fastest cure for busting the high priced limited market is to drink the most expensive ones and try to figure out why they cost so much. Sometimes there appears to be no reason at all, which is a healthy lesson indeed.

Lots of people talk about bias and if you spent a lot you're going to love it just because you're invested - but I wanted to like that EC22 to the tune of about $180, and it still fell flat for me.

[johnnybogey]

Afternoon, everyone.

This has been a really interesting thread. Just wanted to add this little tidbit:

On another popular whiskey forum this afternoon someone posted a driver's seat bottle shot of Elijah Craig 23 Year with the heading, "Local place had this, any good?"

Not meaning to talk smack at all, but if that doesn't perfectly sum up the state of things I don't know what does. That's a $200 bottle purchased blind, with the question of whether or not it tastes good posed after the fact. This just goes to show how much demand there is for anything a) aged more than 12 years and priced higher than $50. I'm sure it was those two factors that told this person he/she better go ahead and buy it and ask questions later. (Plus, the existence of the secondary market ensures that if the consensus is, "not worth it", he/she can probably offload it and get the money back.)

I can't imagine there were many folks making $100+ purchases blind a handful of years ago—at least not in the American whiskey world. Correct me if I'm wrong, of course.

Loving this forum, by the way. Time to drink some $20 bourbon. =)

- DB

hah. I saw that. I replied only one way to find out!!

[squire]

I clearly recall a conversation with some HH employees, gosh maybe 30 years ago, where we were talking about unsold Bourbon left too long in the barrel, and being told they actually bottled up stuff 23 years and older to be shipped to Japan where it sold for a premium. Followed by collective head shakes and comments like, "can't imagine why anybody would drink that stuff".

Fast forward to the present day where 20+ stuff is all the rage for those who follow rages. Until proven otherwise I maintain most of this overaged stuff has been carefully filtered to make it drinkable.

[babermac]

Afternoon, everyone.

This has been a really interesting thread. Just wanted to add this little tidbit:

On another popular whiskey forum this afternoon someone posted a driver's seat bottle shot of Elijah Craig 23 Year with the heading, "Local place had this, any good?"

Not meaning to talk smack at all, but if that doesn't perfectly sum up the state of things I don't know what does. That's a $200 bottle purchased blind, with the question of whether or not it tastes good posed after the fact. This just goes to show how much demand there is for anything a) aged more than 12 years and priced higher than $50. I'm sure it was those two factors that told this person he/she better go ahead and buy it and ask questions later. (Plus, the existence of the secondary market ensures that if the consensus is, "not worth it", he/she can probably offload it and get the money back.)

I can't imagine there were many folks making $100+ purchases blind a handful of years ago—at least not in the American whiskey world. Correct me if I'm wrong, of course.

Loving this forum, by the way. Time to drink some $20 bourbon. =)

- DB

UPDATE: apparently OP was being sarcastic. My bad, but I suppose it says something that I took it seriously.

And yes, TBT, you're absolutely right about folks growing out of the obsession with "premium". I think there's a natural tendency among young people with newfound disposable income to gravitate toward the top shelf. We all want to project the image of having good taste, so naturally we want "the good stuff". I was certainly this way about whiskey a few years ago. I think the first bottle of bourbon I had in my studio apartment after finally ridding myself of roommates was Black Maple Hill. Why? Because it had a beautiful label and I'd seen it on a menu at Bourbon & Branch, about the fanciest bar I'd ever been to. Michter's was another brand I was drawn to in my early days. Funny how both of those are sourced whiskeys with little to no transparency. At the same time I was turning my nose up at brands like Knob Creek or Buffalo Trace because they were "mainstream" or something. The big guys. The Man.

Needless to say it's been a great pleasure to discover how wrong I was. Buffalo Trace is positively delicious, and I can get it anywhere. Spend a little bit more and I've got a Henry McKenna SiB or Elijah Craig 12, both of which taste luxuriously good to me. And when I'm at a bar that's only got the standards, an Evan Williams on the rocks is mighty fine. Mighty fine indeed.

To quote another commenter on the aforementioned forum, on a thread about OFBB and the bourbon boom: "Most of us have experienced this emotional cycle. Rest assured that it ends with acceptance."

Amen. Acceptance, and the realization that the shelves are still full of delicious bottles just begging us to take them home.

Cheers!

[Flyfish]

Every time we think we've reached a new high (the peak?), or "low" as the case may be, something new comes along to tell us we're not quite there yet.

Seen on reddit, so I can't confirm the truth, but seems pretty legit: people following trucks and waiting in line for OFBB

In 2012 on the Bourbon Trail there was a truck behind a distillery (not saying which one) that our guide said was there to pick up a shipment. The trailer had graphics suggesting that it was transporting orange juice. Guide said this was to mislead potential highjackers. I don't recall seeing any trucks on the highway that even vaguely suggested they were carrying OFBB or any other bourbon. Perhaps your experience differs.

[flahute]

In 2012 on the Bourbon Trail there was a truck behind a distillery (not saying which one) that our guide said was there to pick up a shipment. The trailer had graphics suggesting that it was transporting orange juice. Guide said this was to mislead potential highjackers. I don't recall seeing any trucks on the highway that even vaguely suggested they were carrying OFBB or any other bourbon. Perhaps your experience differs.

I don't have any experience following trucks so I can't say, but I wouldn't doubt they would do that. On the other hand, I've been on I-71 in Kentucky and seen distillery branded trucks as well.

All that said, I think what the reddit poster was referring to is people following trucks from the distributor. I've heard of this happening and believe it. Either people get tips from a distributor insider (I have first hand experience hearing about one of these tips and then seeing it come true down to the exact bottle count) or people just follow trucks when they know the time is close.

[BigBoldBully]

I have never understood these "people following the trucks" reports. The stores I have been to do not sell product the instant it comes off of a truck. It has to be processed, added to inventory, etc., and this usually takes them a day or more to get around to. Nor is trying to get them to hurry likely to go well. Hell, I have had retailers refuse to sell me product that was already sitting on the sales floor because they did "not have a price for it yet" and the person responsible would not be in until later in the week.

[flahute]

I have never understood these "people following the trucks" reports. The stores I have been to do not sell product the instant it comes off of a truck. It has to be processed, added to inventory, etc., and this usually takes them a day or more to get around to. Nor is trying to get them to hurry likely to go well. Hell, I have had retailers refuse to sell me product that was already sitting on the sales floor because they did "not have a price for it yet" and the person responsible would not be in until later in the week.

Doesn't work that way here. Two different big box stores here have the ability to process deliveries off the truck in an hour or so. People will wait for that to happen.

[willmohawk5]

I have never understood these "people following the trucks" reports. The stores I have been to do not sell product the instant it comes off of a truck. It has to be processed, added to inventory, etc., and this usually takes them a day or more to get around to. Nor is trying to get them to hurry likely to go well. Hell, I have had retailers refuse to sell me product that was already sitting on the sales floor because they did "not have a price for it yet" and the person responsible would not be in until later in the week.

Lol well it happens. Nerds with no social lives know exactly the delivery days for each liquor store. Most of them live with their parents or somehow have time during the middle of the day or morning to follow them. While people like us are at work.

And ive also hear stories where these "customers" get into arguments with the manager because they haven't put the product out on the shelf to be sold yet. It's pathetic and sad.

[squire]

That's close to stalking.

[smokinjoe]

Nerds with no social lives know exactly the delivery days for each liquor store. Most of them live with their parents or somehow have time during the middle of the day or morning to follow them. While people like us are at work...It's pathetic and sad...

Maybe, these "nerds" work at night, and instead of sleeping or complaining during their off hours, they are getting off their asses and working to get the whiskies they want. Maybe, they're just richer than you,

having worked hard to make all their money, and are using their well earned leisure time to go hunt bottles. Maybe, their social life is taking all of these great bottles and throwing a great party at a great club for friends and family. What I find sad and pathetic is that so many here are begrudging the industrious among us who are simply out-working, out-hustling, and out-smarting those who would call them names and question their character, without knowing a single thing about them.