Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[squire]

I'm all in? Hardly, I really don't care what they do and certainly don't expect any business, foreign or domestic, to overlook profit opportunities.

[johnnyflake45]

Johnny doesn't that presuppose they actually give a rip about our messages?

That is a very valid point! However, when you hurt them in the pocket book, after awhile, they do start to give a RIP.

[KyleCBreese]

American whiskey exports down in the first quarter of 2015...

http://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2015/06/us-whiskey-declines-hit-us-spirits-exports/

[squire]

Had no idea Brandy was soaring in popularity.

[WhiskyRI]

I wonder if the % volume drop of US exports is representative of supply issues more than anything else. If you can't keep your product on US shelves, why go through the hassle to export it? The Boom is in full flower but as someone pointed out earlier on this thread, eventually production will catch up, and there'll be the inevitable glut, like there always is. Even though "this time is different". (it always is and isn't). EWSB is off the shelves up here - or rather what's on the shelves is either 2006 or they are empty. And the joke someone made earlier about gin being the new hot spirit isn't far from the mark - I've tasted some amazing new gins that are quite enjoyable and tasted so good I bought a bottle. Just as people have discovered the joys of a full flavored liquor like whisky, my hope is the masses will also discover the joys of Gin and maybe take some pressure off of Bourbon.

[El Vino]

American whiskey exports down in the first quarter of 2015...

http://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2015/06/us-whiskey-declines-hit-us-spirits-exports/

The dollar has risen more than 20% over the last year, so it is going to have a negative impact on our exports - including whiskey.

[TunnelTiger]

Had no idea Brandy was soaring in popularity.

I wonder if they are seeing similar domestic growth? Other than my self I don't know a single person that drinks brandy.

I bet the bottle I have now is over two years old.

[squire]

Same here TT, everyone seems to have a bottle in their home bar but it usually just sits there. The last time I touched a bottle of brandy was to show a friend's wife how to make a Brandy Alexander.

[dcbt]

I only add it as an ingredient in our sangria. That's it.

[jsrudd]

American whiskey exports down in the first quarter of 2015...

http://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2015/06/us-whiskey-declines-hit-us-spirits-exports/

This has definitely been my experience living in Tokyo. Lots of NDP brands are being discontinued and its getting harder and harder to find standard expressions. The market is very different than it was just a year ago, and this is not because of low demand in Japan.

[Grain Belt]

I wonder if they are seeing similar domestic growth? Other than my self I don't know a single person that drinks brandy.

I bet the bottle I have now is over two years old.

Domestic Brandy is incredibly popular in Minnisota and Wisconsin. E&J and Korbels are staples at almost every supper club and hunting/fishing cabin I have ever been to. I have looked into it and can't quite understand why? Thankfully my old man bucked the trend and showed me how to enjoy a good sour mash while playing cards with our brandy sippin' buddies.

[squire]

Friends from Milwaukee tell me it's cultural as many early settlers to the area were from Scandinavia or Northern Europe which were not traditionally whisky drinking cultures.

[BigBoldBully]

The brandy old fashioned is a common drink here in WI. I was pretty surprised when shortly after moving I was asked to make an old fashioned and then ridiculed for using whiskey (apparently the preference for brandy does relate to the Scandinavian ancestries). Yet, rye whiskey sells quite well compared to other areas. So I try to keep that in mind when monitoring the "boom."

[T Comp]

Domestic Brandy is incredibly popular in Minnisota and Wisconsin. E&J and Korbels are staples at almost every supper club and hunting/fishing cabin I have ever been to. I have looked into it and can't quite understand why? Thankfully my old man bucked the trend and showed me how to enjoy a good sour mash while playing cards with our brandy sippin' buddies.

Friends from Milwaukee tell me it's cultural as many early settlers to the area were from Scandinavia or Northern Europe which were not traditionally whisky drinking cultures.

The brandy old fashioned is a common drink here in WI. I was pretty surprised when shortly after moving I was asked to make an old fashioned and then ridiculed for using whiskey (apparently the preference for brandy does relate to the Scandinavian ancestries). Yet, rye whiskey sells quite well compared to other areas. So I try to keep that in mind when monitoring the "boom."

More here on brandy drinking in Wisconsin albeit 2004. Highlights being 1/3 of Korbel's production goes to Wisconsin but per capita consumption is bigger in DC and Minnesota. Also a 2001 wine magazine source has Californian, New York and Illinois consuming more. Having been to many Wisconsin Supper Clubs, throughout the state, a house Old Fashioned or Manhattan is always with brandy.

http://onmilwaukee.com/bars/articles/brandy.html

[Duxnutz]

God I miss living in Wisconsin.

[cpfoutz]

Order a Manhattan in Wisconsin and it will be made with Brandy by default.

[The Black Tot]

I'm starting to see a lot of phrases on the selling sites that read like "Need to make some space in the bunker..." and "Have some bills to pay so...".

I think some of the heavy buyers are starting to hit the "responsibility wall" that some of us here have been predicting.

BTAC season should still be a frenzy in 2015, sadly. 2015 has shown up to this point that there doesn't seem to be too much to be excited about - the limiteds keep either lowering in appeal or else rising sharply in price.

Maybe this winter is when the wives and girlfriends put their feet down after another fall of extreme effort to hoard man-treasure

All the while, the greatest amount of whiskey since the 70's sleeps in the wood...

[ethangsmith]

I know I've hit whiskey finder's fatigue. I've thinned down the bunker a lot over the past few months. I've given up searching for rare and hard to find bourbons and ryes and just stick to the affordable and easy to find stuff. I've found that the expensive, rare stuff just isn't that much better than the common stuff. I find others starting to share my mindset as well. I think the tide is slowly turning.....

[squire]

The tide is high and I'm moving on.

[MTNBourbon]

Since moving to CO, I've seen alot of CO whiskey/bourbon's.

[BigBoldBully]

Not a ton to report, but I am noticing both locally and through mentions on here, that some lower to mid-shelf offerings are undergoing significant price revisions. For example, EWBIB could be had for $13 a liter and less around here until very recently. Suddenly, it is up to about $17. OGD BIB of course skyrocketed prior to that. And I hear Bulleit is escalating. Will try to collect other examples, along with examples of prices going down (ha!).

[The Black Tot]

The fall limited release season shit show is a hard time to gauge the peak.

I don't think the lower shelf increases can hold for long. Last to rise, first to fall sort of thing.

The intensity of last fall was off-putting for a lot of older hands who were around when the limiteds were easy, but the new young bucks had a lot of fun storming it.

The YBs aren't tired of the battle, yet. But the producers have put the brakes on with across the board price increases, and REALLY high prices for the new limiteds.

A lot of the heavy hitters and heavy flippers I see on facebook are in their mid-20s with girlfriends and recent wives in their photos.

I stick with my statement that wives are not going to tolerate a multi-thousand dollar annual bourbon budget for very much longer. This bubble will be burst by whip.

This season will be completely wild, but I predict that this time there will be a significant increase in unpleasant domestic aftermath about it, after which we will see what happens in 2016.

Children and responsibilities are coming for the young buck limited-chasers who presently clear the shelves.

I'm kind of surprised it's still going this strong, but a flame that burns twice as bright burns only half as long, and this boom is burning brighter and brighter with each passing month.

[Spade]

Not a ton to report, but I am noticing both locally and through mentions on here, that some lower to mid-shelf offerings are undergoing significant price revisions. For example, EWBIB could be had for $13 a liter and less around here until very recently. Suddenly, it is up to about $17. OGD BIB of course skyrocketed prior to that. And I hear Bulleit is escalating. Will try to collect other examples, along with examples of prices going down (ha!).

I haven't noticed any major price increases for lower or mid-shelf bottles. For example, EW BIB can still be had for around $11, which is what I paid the last time I bought some a year or two ago. I actually keep a spreadsheet of prices for bottles I buy only occasionally — in other words, things that I'm not paying close attention to. I started it a few years ago out of curiosity. Some things have gone up, but I haven't noticed any systematic changes in the last few years.

[WhiskyRI]

@Blacktot from your keyboard to the bourbon Gods' ears. Personally I've given up actively searching for dusties although a few weeks ago I popped into a local packy and found 3 members of bourbon heritage collection (Weller Centennial, Old Charter Proprietor's Reserve and VSOF 12yr). It was a store I'd been in several times and those 3 weren't there before. Needless to say I saw them and had them on the counter and in my car in seconds. Otherwise if I see a Weller 12 at "reasonable" prices I'll pick it up and the same for ECBP.

[Flyfish]

I stick with my statement that wives are not going to tolerate a multi-thousand dollar annual bourbon budget for very much longer. This bubble will be burst by whip.