Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[bin31z]

No end of the bourbon boom in sight. I think it will take a huge stock market drop or something similar to 2008 to dissuade people from buying limited edition bourbons. It just seems too many people have spare cash on hand nowadays. This is true for the scotch whisky industry as well. I've pretty much given up on getting limited release stuff, every little shop that gets them marks them up to 299.99 or 599.99 or 1299.99. Craft beer it is for me!

[flahute]

I've noticed certain hard to find but not limited edition bourbons being more available as of late (such as OWA and WSR and to a lesser extent, ETL), but the true LE market is still booming hard. I monitor some of the secondary market sites and there is no slow down or price drops occurring at the moment. Lots of people out there are still willing to spend very large sums of money for BTAC, PVW, etc.

[Golzee]

I'm not sure things are returning to post boom levels,  I still haven't seen ETL in the wild.  Also, OWA, while in supply around town is marked up to $50 in most places.   Also, the only (1) LE in town is hundreds of dollars above MSRP.  I think with the growing market abroad, LE bourbons will never return to post boom levels.

[PaulO]

Some of the products Steve mentioned will always be only released in small numbers by their producers design.  Other brands may eventually catch up.  $50 for OWA is about double the regular price.  For that much I can find MM barrel proof on sale.  I regard paying normal retail prices the same as the sportsmanship of fly fishing or bow hunting.  

[Spade]

I haven't seen an ETL in close to two years. The last OWA I saw was probably at least a year ago. I've seen Baby Saz a couple of times, although in one case, the price was $40. I don't usually keep an eye out for ER10, but I've been looking for one for six months or so and haven't come across one. In summary, it seems to me that BT products (save for BT, WSR, AAA10* and some of the CHET line) are still pretty difficult to find.

Edited March 24, 2016 by Spade

[Louisiana]

As stated earlier hard to find bottles are becoming a little more available.

Limited Edition once a year releases are still incredibly hard to get.

The word has been out. These are the "Cream of the Crop".

[PaulO]

23 hours ago, Spade said:

I haven't seen an ETL in close to two years. The last OWA I saw was probably at least a year ago. I've seen Baby Saz a couple of times, although in one case, the price was $40. I don't usually keep an eye out for ER10, but I've been looking for one for six months or so and haven't come across one. In summary, it seems to me that BT products (save for BT, WSR, AAA10* and some of the CHET line) are still pretty difficult to find.

This is pretty close to my own experience except that I can easily find ER 10.  I don't think AAA 10* is sold in Indiana.  I have not seen an ETL in the wild since before the commemorative came out.  I doubt the few that came our way even touched a shelf.

[jvd99]

Chicago has a fair amount of ETL and, to a lesser extent OWA, in smaller stores not named Binny's.  No shortage of ER10 or Blantons - these are even at most grocery stores around me.  We're spoiled living a great bourbon market and certainly don't suffer as much as other parts of the country which seems to be much more akin to a bourbon desert

 

[The Black Tot]

Yeah I think ETL, Blanton's, ER10, OWA, ECBP, and even W12 are more in the "rare" than extinct status in most places.

Even if they aren't in your area, you usually are aware of the few stores in town or the part of the country where they can be had.

[HOF44]

I have taken to looking for dusties to purchase.  With the secondary prices for the new releases going into the stratoshpere unless I luck onto a straight retail price I don't bother. 

[DonutsNBourbon]

On 3/25/2016 at 4:26 PM, jvd99 said:

Chicago has a fair amount of ETL and, to a lesser extent OWA, in smaller stores not named Binny's.  No shortage of ER10 or Blantons - these are even at most grocery stores around me.  We're spoiled living a great bourbon market and certainly don't suffer as much as other parts of the country which seems to be much more akin to a bourbon desert

 

I'd almost say it's the other way around, I see OWA at most places I frequent, and rarely ETL or W12.  ER10 and Blanton's are quite easy to find, and at grocery stores for $55 for Blanton's!  it usually goes for $65+ at many liquor stores.  either way though, I'd agree with you, we do seem to get a good variety of bourbon here in Chicago.  ECBP is one I'd like to see more availability of though.

[ThirstyinOhio]

 First I'd like to say how much I've enjoyed this discussion that has taken place on this subject.  Now as to my perception of the boom and bubble and if its subsiding and who is at fault. 

  I don't see the boom or the bubble ending any time soon.  I too follow a few secondary market sites and have watched the prices on all limited edition bottles going up and up.  The problem with trying to dissect all of the data and to pin point what the cause to this boom is extremely difficult when we complain about not being able to find limited editions that are put out in volumes less than 5,000 bottles.  I've read countless times on there about people swearing off the chase, no more hunting for the hard to gets unless it falls into your lap, and so on.  The truth is that for every one that decides to stop chasing another 3 take their place.  People were not knowledgeable about Bourbon like they are today and the access to information is even easier thanks to the internet explosion that occurred since the late 90s.  People didn't even know these super limited bourbons even existed for the most part 15 years ago, but now a massive amount has heard about Pappy or the whiskey that is just like Pappy but cheaper.  People's tastes might change, but knowledge won't go away nearly as quickly. 

  Look at the number of visitors on the bourbon trail over the past 5 years, they have seen the numbers skyrocket from 400,000 in 2010 to 900,000 in 2015.  These are people who have a genuine interest in bourbon, maybe not avid drinkers or collectors and I'm sure were spouses dragged along as well, but 500,000 increase in just 5 years is staggering.  Many of these people travel from out of state and spend a moderate amount of money (http://kybourbontrail.com/kentucky-bourbon-trail-visits-skyrocket-with-900000-guests-in-2015/).  These are people who won't think twice about dropping $40 on a bottle of super premium bourbon. 

  I am neither new to bourbon or an old timer.  I started getting into learning and drinking about bourbon 6 years ago and hit the trail for the first time in 2011.  What I can tell you is that the first couple of years there was no worry about tours being sold out and most of my fellow travelers were in their 30s and 40s.  Now in my most recent visits (twice in the last 4 weeks) tours are sold out hours in advance and there were a lot of 55+ people and that demographic tends to have a lot more expendable income than those in their 30s. 

  As to many of these super premiums being more available on the shelves, it makes sense if you think that many of these are 6-9 year old whiskies and have benefitted from the ramp up in production that started at the distilleries in the 2005-2008 when the boom began but make no mistake that the ultra rare stuff such as BTAC, Pappy, and 4Roses LE will not be getting easier to find unless they drastically increase production.

  I really don't believe that the hoarders/bunkers are responsible for how difficult it is to find many of the standard premium brands.  Here on this page is a great sampling of some of the most extreme bourbon aficionados and I don't see multiple cases of ER10 and Blantons in peoples pictures.  I have over 400 bottles of whiskey in my collection now, with 65+ open, but very few do I have more than 2 of any single brand/release.  Why so many?  Because there are so many brands and releases that I wanted to try that I was buying up every variety I could get my hands on.  I live in Ohio who doesn't get the variety that many other states enjoy and as a result the bars can't carry a great selection either so I had no choice but to track down full bottles.  Now a days, I don't buy as many as I have already purchased/tried many of the brands out on the market today so I chase after the new releases while replacing my favorite daily drinkers as I consume them. 

Edited March 31, 2016 by ThirstyinOhio

[T Comp]

I'd recommend  anyone who has posted their thoughts here should read, if you haven't already, David Driscoll's Saturation posts of 5/17/16 and 5/19/16 in his Spirits Journal blog. He makes astute points on causes beyond the flipper-hoarder phenomena, including how spirits have become fashion, no one wants what they can easily get, the insanity of the micro distillery boom and the death of brand loyalty. 

 

http://spiritsjournal.klwines.com/klwinescom-spirits-blog/2016/5/17/saturation.html

 

http://spiritsjournal.klwines.com/klwinescom-spirits-blog/2016/5/19/saturation-part-ii.html

 

 

 

 

[starhopper]

Heck, I think things are just getting started.  I just saw the new Jack Daniel's "Sinatra Century" release at my local liquor store - $499!

[garbanzobean]

Much if not most of BT's fall releases appear to have been allocated  (in Maryland) to on premise accounts in 2015.  I understand that was pushed by Sazerac and may not be limited to my market.  If true, I am curious to see if this speeds up or slows down the premium whisky/whiskey bust, or if it shifts the majority of consumption to a new demographic.  My gut feeling is that it will hasten it, but I still think it is quite a number of years away.

 

One thing I find to be interesting is Dave Driscoll's assertion that the scotch whisky industry keeps having to come up with new releases because they can't get consumers to purchase, on average, more than one bottle of a given release at a time.  If true, it explains a lot of the NAS releases (Laphroaig, I'm looking at you).  If true, it explains that industry's nervousness about the future, especially when you combine it with the limp blend market.  Better to use up all the young spirit now when consumers' ADHD is focused entirely on whisky and not the aged spirits market as a whole.  Hard times are a coming if their 5 bottle a month purchasers turn into purchasers of one bottle a month each of scotch, bourbon, tequila, rum, and brandy.

Edited June 4, 2016 by garbanzobean

[Swoboda]

At our house, the boom has peaked and ended. 

 

We have lots of bourbon to drink. 

[Special Reserve]

I think I bought one bottle of bourbon or any other liquor in the past year.  I found a ETL at the state minimum price and had to pull the trigger.

 

I might buy a bottle of Master's Keep in the near future.

[mark fleetwood]

On 6/3/2016 at 4:03 PM, T Comp said:

I'd recommend  anyone who has posted their thoughts here should read, if you haven't already, David Driscoll's Saturation posts of 5/17/16 and 5/19/16 in his Spirits Journal blog. He makes astute points on causes beyond the flipper-hoarder phenomena, including how spirits have become fashion, no one wants what they can easily get, the insanity of the micro distillery boom and the death of brand loyalty. 

 

http://spiritsjournal.klwines.com/klwinescom-spirits-blog/2016/5/17/saturation.html

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

http://spiritsjournal.klwines.com/klwinescom-spirits-blog/2016/5/19/saturation-part-ii.html

 

 

 

 

5000 new distilleries by 2016! Good grief. Get the feeling that there are going to be quite a few cheap, used stills available in about 10-15 years. That, or this country is more drunk than ever before.

 

 

[The Black Tot]

On 6/6/2016 at 5:57 PM, mark fleetwood said:

 

 

 

 

 

5000 new distilleries by 2016! Good grief. Get the feeling that there are going to be quite a few cheap, used stills available in about 10-15 years. That, or this country is more drunk than ever before.

 

 

 

Yup, but try 5yrs instead. A lot of these stills were bought with debt.

 

Driscoll's articles are quite good. How many gins do they think the market can absorb is an excellent (correctly loaded) question-into-observation.

 

"Gin is how small distilleries got started recently, it must be how we'll all do it going forward" Seems to have been the thought process.

 

Even in the last six months, we've seen distilleries get more and more brazen with the bubble. KC2001 at $139 instead of being allowed for private selections, Booker's Rye MSRP set at $300, even 4R re-introducing their single barrel ltd, but at $120 instead of the $90 it was when it disappeared 2yrs ago.

 

I'm thinking that 10%+ year over year increases in ltd pricing are finally going to start to do a good job of putting some brakes on the bubble.

 

Probably any remaining exciting release in 2016 will either be no surprise when it is shock-priced, diverted to on-premise, or otherwise a significantly less enjoyable purchase experience than even 6mo ago.

 

Scottish malt is trying to hold on to the fever with all kinds of special editions, bourbon seems to be seeing just how far they can push their fan base price-wise. Tequila is doing well and growing fast because their supply rise-time is 4yrs or less. Rum remains a hot mess.

 

Me, I'm enjoying my $30 bottles of CR Northern Harvest. Probably I'm going to get around to finding some good uses for some very affordable upcoming craft gins.

 

 

 

 

[jcal1985]

On Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 3:35 PM, Spade said:

I haven't seen an ETL in close to two years. The last OWA I saw was probably at least a year ago. I've seen Baby Saz a couple of times, although in one case, the price was $40. I don't usually keep an eye out for ER10, but I've been looking for one for six months or so and haven't come across one. In summary, it seems to me that BT products (save for BT, WSR, AAA10* and some of the CHET line) are still pretty difficult to find.

The problem here in Atlanta is that stores No longer put that stuff on the shelves. They hoard it away for their friends. One store in particular has several bottle of OWA and ETL hiding in their office with names stuck on the bottles. Those same bottles have been in there for months. Then you have other stores that will only release their allocated bourbons in "gift sets" packages with stuff they can't sell. It's ridiculous.

[squire]

They can keep that stuff in the back room for all I care, I'm way past the point where marketing can dent my wallet. 

[Niner Outlaw]

In further proof that the boom isn't going anywhere soon, one of my local stores got hit by a Locust--someone that cleaned off the shelves and left nothing behind. Most of the same things had been on the shelves for a couple of months at least, and whoosh, all gone in one day. All the ER (6), all the Stagg Jr (4), the RYSB10 (3), Jefferson's Ocean (4), Blanton's (2), and Blood Oath (2). The GM told me that the buyer seemed strangely giddy when he bought it all. It was all overpriced imo, but that didn't stop this guy. Something tells me that the buyer was from out of town b/c those bottles had been there for months. 

 

[garbanzobean]

11 hours ago, Niner Outlaw said:

In further proof that the boom isn't going anywhere soon, one of my local stores got hit by a Locust--someone that cleaned off the shelves and left nothing behind. Most of the same things had been on the shelves for a couple of months at least, and whoosh, all gone in one day. All the ER (6), all the Stagg Jr (4), the RYSB10 (3), Jefferson's Ocean (4), Blanton's (2), and Blood Oath (2). The GM told me that the buyer seemed strangely giddy when he bought it all. It was all overpriced imo, but that didn't stop this guy. Something tells me that the buyer was from out of town b/c those bottles had been there for months. 

 

At least the feller was happy, no?

 

This happens around me every once and awhile.  I'll see the same stuff for months and then all of a sudden someone will take a serious go at one thing or another.  Most recently it was what was left of age stated Japanese Whisky in the area.  It sort of disappeared all at once from the random stores in the area that still had any.  There is maybe one place left with some Miyagikyo 12, but that's about it.

 

I also sometimes see folks gleefully loading up on Eagle Rare 10 or other random Buffalo Trace products that don't really go out of stock here, but I figure whatever's going on there is none of my concern.

[Sluffo]

And Four Roses is in the middle of expanding their distillery.  Adding a new still and doubler which will effectively double their production capacity.  They are convinced the boom is more of a renaissance and won't end any time soon.  That's a lot of coin for a major producer to invest without some inside information.

[flahute]

1 hour ago, Sluffo said:

And Four Roses is in the middle of expanding their distillery.  Adding a new still and doubler which will effectively double their production capacity.  They are convinced the boom is more of a renaissance and won't end any time soon.  That's a lot of coin for a major producer to invest without some inside information.

Not sure what sort of inside information you allude to. They look at trends and growth over time and other metrics in order to forecast their capacity needs.