Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[oldpatct]

I have spent time getting knowledgeable about bourbons over the last 5+ years and when I am shopping I share my thoughts etc. with the owner etc of the store.  I was lucky enough over the last few weeks after spending 15-20 minutes chatting and sharing opinions to be offered my favorite ETL and a CEHT that were in the back and one per customer allocation.  I think they figured out i really enjoyed the sip and am not a flipper.  One man's experience but still can'f find ER anywhere ... DARN

[Kepler]

On 12/3/2016 at 2:03 PM, mbroo5880i said:

I passed on a FRSB today (on sale) for $31.  I thought long and hard about it and even picked it up and looked at it.  But, in the end, there are other options in the $30-40 price range that I prefer right now.  

By "FRSB" do you mean Single Barrel (FRSiB) or Small Batch (FRSmB)?  Both are fine bourbons.  What other options in that price range do you prefer?  

[miller542]

I have to feel like the price increase Beam just announced for Booker's is another step towards cooling off this boom.  I'm not saying it's "the" event to pop the bubble, but it's one domino falling.  Get a few more events to fall like this and by next December the bourbon landscape may be much different than it is today.  Understanding of course that no one reacts overnight and it will be years before we see the results of the cooling effect.

Edited December 12, 2016 by miller542

[mbroo5880i]

20 hours ago, Kepler said:

By "FRSB" do you mean Single Barrel (FRSiB) or Small Batch (FRSmB)?  Both are fine bourbons.  What other options in that price range do you prefer?  

 

I was referencing the standard single barrel.  I opted for several other bottles that were also on sale including a store select 1792, bottled at 98.6 proof, a store select ER 10, both of which were less than $30.  I also grabbed a bottle of WTR01 in the mid-$30s and a KCSB store select for $39.99 at another store the same day.  The FRSB was $36.99 but would have been $31.44 on sale.  The FRSB didn't make the cut that day.

 

In the past, grabbing a bottle of FR would have been an easy decision.  However, the most recent 2 standard FRSBs that I had were less than stellar.  Right now, if I am spending $35 on a bottle, I am more likely to hunt down a KCSB or a store select, or step down, if you want to call it that, to EC NAS which I find exceptional for $25.

 

 

[Bbstout]

5 minutes ago, Three quarks said:

The elevator operator suggested I buy more Bookers.

LOL....this "rumor" became reality when I saw a bottle priced at $70.

[smokinjoe]

8 hours ago, miller542 said:

I have to feel like the price increase Beam just announced for Booker's is another step towards cooling off this boom.  I'm not saying it's "the" event to pop the bubble, but it's one domino falling.  Get a few more events to fall like this and by next December the bourbon landscape may be much different than it is today.  Understanding of course that no one reacts overnight and it will be years before we see the results of the cooling effect.

I'm not sure I wouldn't call this move with the Booker's price as another brick in the "Boom" growth wall, rather than a contributor to any fall of the "Bubble". 

[Kepler]

4 hours ago, mbroo5880i said:

 

I was referencing the standard single barrel.  I opted for several other bottles that were also on sale including a store select 1792, bottled at 98.6 proof, a store select ER 10, both of which were less than $30.  I also grabbed a bottle of WTR01 in the mid-$30s and a KCSB store select for $39.99 at another store the same day.  The FRSB was $36.99 but would have been $31.44 on sale.  The FRSB didn't make the cut that day.

 

In the past, grabbing a bottle of FR would have been an easy decision.  However, the most recent 2 standard FRSBs that I had were less than stellar.  Right now, if I am spending $35 on a bottle, I am more likely to hunt down a KCSB or a store select, or step down, if you want to call it that, to EC NAS which I find exceptional for $25.

 

 

Thanks. I'm always on the lookout for recommendations, and yours caught my eye because I reckon a bourbon has to be pretty good to beat 4R single barrel in the mid-30's.  Those are all good suggestions, thanks.

[ken_mays]

On December 12, 2016 at 9:53 PM, smokinjoe said:

I'm not sure I wouldn't call this move with the Booker's price as another brick in the "Boom" growth wall, rather than a contributor to any fall of the "Bubble". 

 

Same here.  Obviously Beam sees demand at the $100 mark for something perceived as LE.  The fact that the exact same liquor sat largely ignored on the shelf at $50 means there are a lot of ignorant bourbon buyers armed with $100 bills and a Buzzfeed education about The Top Ten Bourbons You Simply Must Own: the apotheosis of the boom buyer.

[mosugoji64]

16 hours ago, ken_mays said:

 

Same here.  Obviously Beam sees demand at the $100 mark for something perceived as LE.  The fact that the exact same liquor sat largely ignored on the shelf at $50 means there are a lot of ignorant bourbon buyers armed with $100 bills and a Buzzfeed education about The Top Ten Bourbons You Simply Must Own: the apotheosis of the boom buyer.

 

Your post reminded me of the story I heard in a college marketing class about how L'eggs brand panty hose was a failure when released because they were TOO CHEAP. Customers passed them buy because the price made people think they were junk. As soon as they RAISED the price they were flying off shelves and became a hit. Maybe this is exactly what Beam will accomplish with Bookers. The big bump in price may give its reputation and sales a big bump as well. 

[flahute]

2 hours ago, mosugoji64 said:

 

Your post reminded me of the story I heard in a college marketing class about how L'eggs brand panty hose was a failure when released because they were TOO CHEAP. Customers passed them buy because the price made people think they were junk. As soon as they RAISED the price they were flying off shelves and became a hit. Maybe this is exactly what Beam will accomplish with Bookers. The big bump in price may give its reputation and sales a big bump as well. 

You're not the only ones thinking this way.

I have't seen anyone mention yet what Minnick said in his story on this. He recounts a story of being in a liquor store and being asked for a recommendation from another customer for a bourbon to take to a dinner. He recommended Four Roses Small Batch. The woman asking him thought it looked too cheap and wanted to buy the Rabbit Hole Bourbon instead. Hmmmm......that tells you everything you need to know right there.

[Limegoldconvertible68]

Ironic this move with turn all of us on SB.com into the people drinking the bottom shelf bourbon because it will be the best bourbon for the buck. 

[WhiskyInTheBoro]

Perhaps some small progress in middle Tennessee... Plenty of 1792 Full Proof, Noah's Mill, Rebel Yell Single Barrel, and CEHT Rye was on the shelves this evening.

[Paddy]

We've only seen the tip of the iceberg. 

[Louisiana]

10 hours ago, Paddy said:

We've only seen the tip of the iceberg. 

 

 

^^^^^ I agree.

 

 

 

[smokinjoe]

On December 15, 2016 at 7:26 AM, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

Ironic this move with turn all of us on SB.com into the people drinking the bottom shelf bourbon because it will be the best bourbon for the buck. 

Pretty much SB members already drink the best bourbons for the buck.  That comes with knowledge, experience, and each persons palate and situation.  And frankly, some of those "best for the buck" bourbons DO cost $100, and more.

[WhiskyInTheBoro]

12 hours ago, Paddy said:

We've only seen the tip of the iceberg. 

 

Count me with the minority that believes the worm is about to turn.

[amg]

18 minutes ago, WhiskyInTheBoro said:

 

Count me with the minority that believes the worm is about to turn.

Something is about to something, that's for sure.

[smokinjoe]

2 minutes ago, amg said:

Something is about to something, that's for sure.

I'm not sure how you meant this, but if you meant this like I think you meant this, and I am taking it that way, then that is well done and gave me a good laugh...for which I thank you! 

[dcbt]

27 minutes ago, amg said:

Something is about to something, that's for sure.

Unless it doesn't and nothing happens.

[fishnbowljoe]

The bourbon bug bit me about ten years ago. Like I've said before, there's one thing I learned pretty early on in this endeavor, and that is about the only thing constant is change. Depending on your point of view, sometimes change for the better, most times not. I consider myself very fortunate. At the time I got into this, I could still find some nice dusties, and procuring specialty items (Pappy, BTAC, LE's etc...) was fairly easy. Finding SB, and being a member here also helped me in oh so many ways. I've met a helluva lot of good folks, and they've shared their bounty and knowledge with me and others. FWIW, I've tried to do the same back. IMHO, we're kinda like a family here. Many of us get together when and if we can. We share good times and bad with each other. We also have some pretty interesting discussions. Sometimes we see eye to eye on things, and sometimes we don't. Arguments and disagreements happen once in a while, but that's just the nature of the beast. Just like family. Know what I mean Vern? Shit happens.  All that aside......

 

The current state of the bourbon industry is, and has been a little confusing for me lately. Is this the beginning or the end of the boom? What other bourbons will lose their age statement, or be discontinued?  Just WTF is going on? I have no inside information whatsoever, but I tend to think that (at least) the major distilleries probably have some kind of idea of what the future holds in store. I think they're being pretty tight lipped about things because they don't want to compromise themselves or others with their positions in this whole mess. No one wants to upset the apple cart for gosh sakes.  

 

Nothing derogatory aimed at anyone or anything here, but I've grown weary of this whole mess lately. Maybe it's because I've possibly achieved my bourbon Zen, or maybe it's because I just don't give a rats ass anymore. I really don't know for sure. But Booker's at $100.00 a bottle? No freakin' way. I also refuse to participate in raffles and such, and pay $$$ just for the chance to possibly get a bottle of something deemed hard to find. Furthermore, there's no way in hell I'll pay secondary market prices for specialty stuff. Hopefully I can continue to purchase occasional "fill in"  items like BT at a decent price around here now and then. In that same vein, I hope I'll still be able to get a bottle or three of HH 6 BIB every now and then on my trips to KY.   That's pretty much where I'm at right now. I'll be fairly content to drink my bunker down and weather the storm as best as I can. Something tells me I probably won't have a problem in doing so.  Just my thoughts, but YMMV.

 

Cheers! Joe

 

[WhiskyInTheBoro]

4 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

I'm not sure how you meant this, but if you meant this like I think you meant this, and I am taking it that way, then that is well done and gave me a good laugh...for which I thank you! 

Care to elucidate?

[Harry in WashDC]

On 12/17/2016 at 5:31 PM, fishnbowljoe said:

. . .  Finding SB, and being a member here also helped me in oh so many ways. [The good folks here have] shared their bounty and knowledge with me and others. FWIW, I've tried to do the same back . . .

 

The current state of the bourbon industry is, and has been a little confusing for me lately. Is this the beginning or the end of the boom? What other bourbons will lose their age statement, or be discontinued?  Just WTF is going on? I have no inside information whatsoever, but I tend to think that (at least) the major distilleries probably have some kind of idea of what the future holds in store. I think they're being pretty tight lipped about things because they don't want to compromise themselves or others with their positions in this whole mess. No one wants to upset the apple cart for gosh sakes.  

 

Nothing derogatory aimed at anyone or anything here, but I've grown weary of this whole mess lately. Maybe it's because I've possibly achieved my bourbon Zen, or maybe it's because I just don't give a rats ass anymore. I really don't know for sure. But Booker's at $100.00 a bottle? No freakin' way. I also refuse to participate in raffles and such, and pay $$$ just for the chance to possibly get a bottle of something deemed hard to find. Furthermore, there's no way in hell I'll pay secondary market prices for specialty stuff. Hopefully I can continue to purchase occasional "fill in"  items like BT at a decent price around here now and then. In that same vein, I hope I'll still be able to get a bottle or three of HH 6 BIB every now and then on my trips to KY.   That's pretty much where I'm at right now. I'll be fairly content to drink my bunker down and weather the storm as best as I can. Something tells me I probably won't have a problem in doing so.  Just my thoughts, but YMMV.

 

Cheers! Joe

 

I sort of edited this to fit closer to some rambling thoughts I've had lately but gave up since I generally agree with what Joe posted.  The thoughts still aren't really organized, yet, but I don't want to take the weeks I know it will take to mentally write and revise the treatise I know is in my head.  Here's what's whirling in there (well, in "here" is it's in my head).  At the WP/Hillrock tasting I reported on,  I was wowed by the "finished" bourbons although I liked the traditional offerings, too.  And as I posted on the WR Brandy finish thread, I passed due to past experiences with these experiments.  On the recommendation of a few of you, I bought a bottle and tasted it.  I loved it.  Then, I read all the posts and links in the Jos. A. Magnus thread and thoroughly enjoyed the external link article.  I bought a bottle of the triple cask finish and loved it.  THEN, I read Charlutz's post on some thread about how he didn't really like sherry finishes and finished bourbons like Angel's Envy (did I get that right,Charlie? - don't want to misrepresent) but did like what he tasted.  ALL THAT got me thinking (a danger for retirees, BTW, since we have no deadlines or budgets or bosses telling us to DECIDE!!).

 

[EDIT - On 19 DEC 2016, I ,moved the rest of this really long comment to the "Thoughts on Finished Bourbon" thread.

https://www.straightbourbon.com/community/topic/23347-thoughts-on-finished-bourbons/  ]

]

Edited December 19, 2016 by Harry in WashDC

[mbroo5880i]

4 hours ago, amg said:

Something is about to something, that's for sure.

 

Haha...I read it the same way as Joe!  Good job!

[WhiskyInTheBoro]

1 hour ago, mbroo5880i said:

 

Haha...I read it the same way as Joe!  Good job!

 

I'm new to this board guys, so help me out. Is the hubris level of the poster usually directly proportional to his number of posts?

[mbroo5880i]

54 minutes ago, WhiskyInTheBoro said:

 

I'm new to this board guys, so help me out. Is the hubris level of the poster usually directly proportional to his number of posts?

 

No offense intended. If you felt my general response was directed toward your post, I apologize for any sense of such.   I took Andrew's post to be a humorous response to the predictive powers most of us would love to have. I have seen nothing to predict a top of the boom or that it still has more legs. History tells us that the more obvious the signs, the more likely we are to miss them. We won't know when the boom has peaked until long after the fact.