Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[DonutsNBourbon]

Thank you for correcting me. Seeing the pic on a phone is not great and neither is the EC going NAS. It is a shame.

sorry, I took a crappy pic, so it totally looks like the BP bottles, I'm kinda thinking they wanted that confusion though.

[garbanzobean]

Thank you for correcting me. Seeing the pic on a phone is not great and neither is the EC going NAS. It is a shame.

Haha "correcting" sounds awfully formal. We're all wrong sometimes. Me personally? Quite often. Constantly, if my wife is to be believed.

[flahute]

The EC barrel proof bottle has a dark brown label. The standard has a beige label like pictured above and the age is stated on the back label. It's nice to know that it's still 12 yrs old, but I do like that red 12 on the old one.

[Madhatter]

My hope is that this thread can serve as a place to collect our observations and other evidence relevant to whether the bourbon boom has finally reached its zenith. .......................

What have you noticed recently that makes you think the boom (bubble?) is continuing to intensify, is peaking, or is busting?

One thing that could peak the bourbon boom is the millennial generation beginning to question whether an increase in throat and esophagus cancer is related to alcohol consumption. Alcohol removing the mucous lining of the esophagus, plus ingestion of carcinogens extracted from charred oak surfaces by alcohol doesn't sound like a healthy combination for long term exposure. I have no evidence; just conjecture for now.

[Flyfish]

One thing that could peak the bourbon boom is the millennial generation beginning to question whether an increase in throat and esophagus cancer is related to alcohol consumption. Alcohol removing the mucous lining of the esophagus, plus ingestion of carcinogens extracted from charred oak surfaces by alcohol doesn't sound like a healthy combination for long term exposure. I have no evidence; just conjecture for now.

If all of us made a point of decrying the downside to bourbon consumption, there might be more bourbon available for us to consume. None but the brave deserve the upper shelf! (And the middle. And the lower.)

[ThirstyinOhio]

One thing that could peak the bourbon boom is the millennial generation beginning to question whether an increase in throat and esophagus cancer is related to alcohol consumption. Alcohol removing the mucous lining of the esophagus, plus ingestion of carcinogens extracted from charred oak surfaces by alcohol doesn't sound like a healthy combination for long term exposure. I have no evidence; just conjecture for now.

The increase in throat and esophagus cancer will probably linked to the increased coffee and other high temperature beverage consumption.

[Madhatter]

The increase in throat and esophagus cancer will probably linked to the increased coffee and other high temperature beverage consumption.

caffeine, heat, and tannins vs. alcohol and carcinogens. Hot button question.

[Josh_NC]

Joe's post did get me thinking about how my own behavior has changed due to the boom. And, even though I made fun of it, I do think that we geeks contribute to the problem.

This has been one of the most interesting threads I've seen in my short time lurking on this board. I really agree with Harry's comment. I got Clay Risen's book for Christmas in 2013 and at that time, the only 'special' release I knew of was the Van Winkle line.

A few months ago I bought the storage cabinet that was so big I'd never fill it. I'm having trouble getting it closed now, like a lot of others on this site. On one hand, I don't want to push up demand by hoarding, but on the other hand, I see many posts here suggesting that quality is in the rear view mirror and crap is in the near-term future.

[smokinjoe]

I see many posts here suggesting that quality is in the rear view mirror and crap is in the near-term future.

I couldn't disagree more with this statement. How do you get to this conclusion ?

[Josh_NC]

I couldn't disagree more with this statement. How do you get to this conclusion ?

Loss of age statements on many brands, increasing gimmick releases, and the fact that standard offerings of the past are hard to find now. I just bought Chuck Cowdery's book from 2004, and last night I read a chapter on suggested tastings from each active distillery. Many of what must have been common bottles back then are hard for me to find today.

Do you think that 3 years from now, your local liquor store will have a better bourbon selection than they do now? Will prices be higher (inflation adjusted) than they are now? Those are two factors I would use to define pre/post boom. I guess I'm betting on lower quality and higher prices, so bunkering becomes rational.

[smokinjoe]

Loss of age statements on many brands, increasing gimmick releases, and the fact that standard offerings of the past are hard to find now. I just bought Chuck Cowdery's book from 2004, and last night I read a chapter on suggested tastings from each active distillery. Many of what must have been common bottles back then are hard for me to find today.

Do you think that 3 years from now, your local liquor store will have a better bourbon selection than they do now? Will prices be higher (inflation adjusted) than they are now? Those are two factors I would use to define pre/post boom. I guess I'm betting on lower quality and higher prices, so bunkering becomes rational.

Of the reasons you give that the best of bourbon quality is "in the rearview mirror" only the loss of some age statements can directly be cited as evidence. And, even that is debatable. Ask Harry on his thoughts on the VOB BIB dropping the 6 yr age statement. He's posted them several times here. Not missed a beat from what I remember. I concur. "Gimmick releases" and hard to find "standard" releases are just what they are, and in no way support your negative outlook on the quality of bourbon quality in the future. As to age statements, they are just a number, and not the end all in determining a whiskeys "quality ", and certainly not a precursor to it becoming "crap" as you predict. Yes, some labels have dropped their age statements on these tight times, but outside of the predictable angst due to change, I haven't noticed an outpouring of negative reviews.

Sure, you can't find bourbons from 10 years ago. So? You expect every brand to last forever? I don't want to speak for Chuck, but I'm sure he'll tell you there were plenty bourbons from those years that were plain shite. See his review of Yellowstone .

If you want to stock up on your faves, have it . I do it all the time. But, to suggest that bourbon quality is gone and going to be crap in the near future is simply ludicrous. It may be more expensive, and harder to find our individual favorites at times, but the majors are putting out some of the best bourbon whiskies ever.

[The Black Tot]

I don't think there's going to be a loss of quality. The big distilleries may be dropping some age statements, but they all very much care about their taste profiles.

I think the opposite is true. Production keeps ramping up, and at the same time, distilleries are experimenting with how to maximize barrel extraction, understanding why we have barrel variations the way we do, etc. Some of these studies are inevitably going to make the whiskey BETTER, over the long term, in my opinion.

While I am certainly among the group who wishes some of the old style flavors would return to the market, the present whiskeys are excellent in their own way, and I expect will only get better over time as we understand more over what makes 'em great.

Prices only rise when people are willing to pay 'em. People will get tired of spending high dollars on bottles sooner or later. Either when they have enough at home, when times get harder and the dollars aren't there, or when production catches up and competition explodes.

The popularity of whiskey ain't a linear thing. Nothing stays on top forever.

But as gets frequently said around here, any day of the week there are plenty of fantastic bottles out there under $30. If they go up to $35 before they stabilize back lower, your pour just cost you 35 more cents. Not really a big deal.

Bunkering is like the term "middle class". Everyone thinks they know what it means, and everyone's idea is probably different. Some of what people would call bunkering is definitely NOT rational. Mine certainly has drifted away from rational quite frequently. It's hard to be rational when your prediction of the future is a guess, however educated.

But people aren't doing it to be rational. We're doing it for fun.

3 yrs from now there will be hundreds of new offerings from micro distilleries, some of which might actually be pretty good. So yes, the stores will have better selection than they do now. It will probably get pretty hard to keep track of the width of choices. That means width of competition also, which probably means LOWER prices, not higher.

At present, regardless of how dour the scramble for some products may appear, good bourbon is easy to get, and time is definitely on the bourbon drinker's side.

Edited May 18, 2015 by The Black Tot

[The Black Tot]

Joe beat me to it. We said it different ways, at least

[garbanzobean]

Not to pile on, but I've focusing on mid shelf easy sippers the last couple months, and the previous excellent options all still seem excellent to my palate. In a way, I almost don't care what was available in the past, because I'm very happy with the present. As to the bleakness of the landscape, here's a fun read:

http://recenteats.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-state-of-american-whiskey.html

There is plenty to be hopeful about, and plenty to enjoy today. Most of it cost less (far less) than $40 a bottle.

[The Black Tot]

That IS a supercool article. Eric. I had missed that one. Yikes.

Maybe THAT's how we should call the peak of the boom, when the number of distillery expansions levels out?

[garbanzobean]

That IS a supercool article. Eric. I had missed that one. Yikes.

Maybe THAT's how we should call the peak of the boom, when the number of distillery expansions levels out?

I think that would be one indicator. Being a selfish consumer, I'm almost more interested in which smaller distilleries are specifically increasing bourbonmaking capacity (many of the distilleries listed do malt and/or rye) to the point of being legitimate players, as well as which craft distilleries are aging stock to 4 years and beyond. For every distillery like Tom's Foolery and Smooth Ambler, we probably have 50 distilleries hoping 1-12 months in small barrels is good enough. Or it could be far more or less than that. I'd love to see a searchable database with stuff like that.

[The Black Tot]

I think that would be one indicator. Being a selfish consumer, I'm almost more interested in which smaller distilleries are specifically increasing bourbonmaking capacity (many of the distilleries listed do malt and/or rye) to the point of being legitimate players, as well as which craft distilleries are aging stock to 4 years and beyond. For every distillery like Tom's Foolery and Smooth Ambler, we probably have 50 distilleries hoping 1-12 months in small barrels is good enough. Or it could be far more or less than that. I'd love to see a searchable database with stuff like that.

Would the taxation records of barrel inventories be available to the public? That would be a pretty serious indicator of what's piling up in the aging chain.

[garbanzobean]

Would the taxation records of barrel inventories be available to the public? That would be a pretty serious indicator of what's piling up in the aging chain.

I guess that depends on state laws. I'm barely familiar with KY tax laws relating to liquor, let alone the laws of the other 48 states with whiskey distilleries. It is an excellent idea, though.

[Josh_NC]

If you want to stock up on your faves, have it . I do it all the time. But, to suggest that bourbon quality is gone and going to be crap in the near future is simply ludicrous. It may be more expensive, and harder to find our individual favorites at times, but the majors are putting out some of the best bourbon whiskies ever.

[mosugoji64]

One of the benefits of this board is help in identifying quality bottles that others overlook due to their position on the shelf. I'm most happy these days stocking up on value pours. I don't find the quality slipping on those despite the admittedly worrying loss of age statements. We'll see how things pan out, but I don't foresee everything turning to crap because of the boom. Reeling in the occasional whale bottle is fun, too, but I'm comfortable with knowing I can walk into a store and get something good without clawing and fighting my way to it.

Edited May 19, 2015 by mosugoji64

[johnnyflake45]

I am still pretty new at this, but I feel strongly that the discontinuing of age statements, will effect the way we buy, especially the newer people coming into this hobby. So far, for me, age statements have been very important in peaking my interest!

[The Black Tot]

I read somewhere that we have the most bourbon in rackhouses that we have had in the US since 1977, and we're still on the increase year over year.

Whatever happens in the short term, the long term is that in 7 years + we'll have more bourbon coming out per year than we had during the formation of the glut.

Although they still can't say for sure, there is big speculation that part of what turned people away from bourbon was young people not wanting to drink what their parents drank.

Fortunately, THAT could never happen again. We're on track for perfectly linear increasing demand for bourbon, forever.

Er...

[fozzy71]

I read somewhere that we have the most bourbon in rackhouses that we have had in the US since 1977, and we're still on the increase year over year.

Whatever happens in the short term, the long term is that in 7 years + we'll have more bourbon coming out per year than we had during the formation of the glut.

Although they still can't say for sure, there is big speculation that part of what turned people away from bourbon was young people not wanting to drink what their parents drank.

Fortunately, THAT could never happen again. We're on track for perfectly linear increasing demand for bourbon, forever.

Er...

[like]

:drinking:

I am in my early 40's and finally loving what my dad/mom used to drink.

IIRC my dad liked bourbon and my mom liked Canadian whisk(e)y

[WhiskyRI]

The boom hasn't peaked, and that's a good thing. Right now as more and more capacity is coming on-line chasing interest - stocks are building. And that is a very good thing. The boom has been gathering steam long enough now that production increases from 4 and 5 years ago are ready to be dumped. In another 2 years you'll have even more 4 year old bourbon, and the amount of 7 year old will be greater as well. In another 5 years many of the young craft distillers will either be gone, or will have survived by taking advantage of the new price points and will finally have oldish product aged in full-size barrels. Some of it will be crap and some of it will be excellent - what it won't all be is MGP, and that's a good thing. Not that I don't like me some MGP - but the promise of "craft" distilling will finally begin to start living up to the hype. Sure the craft distillers won't have any 12 year or 15 year whiskey that had Stitzel Weller whispered near it but they will have learned a few lessons and hopefully some of them will survive the coming glut.

Right now I'm living mostly off of my hoard and my wallet mostly comes out for private barrels from people whose palates I know and trust. And when it comes out and I find something I like I just buy a case or two, if allowed. It's amazing how cheap a case of OWA is - even if there are 12 bottles in an OWA case. The peak hasn't happened, you rarely know you've hit the peak until it's receded behind you. Sure we are starting to see a little softening - but this is mostly driven by rapacious pricing - most people can easily leave $800 VW12 behind. But I bet if it was $300 - some of us (not me of course) would open our wallets. What I find interesting is that it's assumed if you find a wine you like you buy cases of it - but if you try to buy cases of bourbon you are seen as a hoarder. I like going down to my bunker and pulling out a bottle of something fun, and the only way I can do that is to buy and hold, buying more than I drink. And continuing to do so for a while. Right now I'm buying aged Armagnacs because the quality to price ratio is off the charts - it won't be that way for long.

Back to the boom - things move in cycles. I'm excited for all the capacity and all the stock in warehouses. I know that in another 5 years, if not sooner, private barrel programs will start opening up again and you'll be able to find some great bourbons. In another 10 years there'll be a new KBD, or maybe even the original KBD will be putting out more private barrels, picking and choosing honey barrels. Good whisky takes time and rewards patience. Right now I'm drinking what I like when it's available and making do when it isn't.

[onewman]

I personally see this as 2 part question. The first question is whether the price of exceptional bourbon has peaked or not. The answer to this is no. Look to the new Col E H Taylor Cured Oak. Quality or not, the price rose instantly on the secondary market to $300 - $500 per bottle - if you can find it. The price has not peaked. The second question is whether or not the release of exception bourbon has peaked or not. I submit that the overall question to this is yes. While we may see the occasional exceptional bourbon released these days, the average bourbon released these days is just.................average. Not to say that they are bad, but they are not deserving of the prices being charged for them.