Possible insights from Heaven Hill in the near term?

[flaminiom]

I have the feeling neither you nor I would buy 10 EC12's just to get the 11th free. Eleven EC12 would cost $297 pretax now, and $330 after the price increase. Would you want to spend $297 now for eleven EC12 or spend $30 later for one EC12 and have $267 left over to spend on a variety of other bottles that might enhance your taste experience beyond EC12? While enjoying my one bottle of EC12, I would sure like the thought of what better finds $267 might buy. But then I'm always looking for something newer and better.

No, I'm not doing that. Buy 10 and get one free was a joke like someone might buy boxes of Mac and Cheese at the megamart. Although I did buy some extra bottles last week. In part because of the price hike also to have a couple bottles of the old label to stash away to reference down the road if things change.

But still, I know/see/hear people spending that much on buying 1-2 bottles of Bourbon on hype alone. And that's not even talking about the secondary market. In a crazy world, it's all relative.

[Chris m]

If you have 'had a majority of the American Whiskies out there', then at one time you must have must have tasted newer and better things than EC12.

Or, perhaps, once someone has enough experience they understand what they like and how to spend their money. Which is why you’ll see folks on this forum—with much more experience than you or I—enthusiastically enjoying OGD114.

[amg]

Or, perhaps, once someone has enough experience they understand what they like and how to spend their money. Which is why you’ll see folks on this forum—with much more experience than you or I—enthusiastically enjoying OGD114.

This guy knows what he's talking about.

[ethangsmith]

This guy knows what he's talking about.

X2. I did the expensive or rare bourbon/rye thing. And I've come full circle. My cabinet is once again full of Old Grand Dad, Elijah Craig 12, Evan Williams 1783, Beam Black, Old Ezra 101, Wild Turkey 101, Rittenhouse, Old Overholt, and other bourbons and ryes that most would consider "basic." I've gotten to the point that I don't want/need to spend big bucks or hours finding a specific whiskey. If it's not convenient and affordable, I don't go after it anymore. Wild Turkey Rare Breed was my go-to bourbon for a long time. When it got hard to find, more expensive, and the proof and profile changed, I quit buying it. Simple as that. If EC12 gets rare or expensive, it will leave my shelf too.

[Madhatter]

If you have 'had a majority of the American Whiskies out there', then at one time you must have must have tasted newer and better things than EC12.

Or, perhaps, once someone has enough experience they understand what they like and how to spend their money. Which is why you’ll see folks on this forum—with much more experience than you or I—enthusiastically enjoying OGD114.

You quoted part of what I said, then gave a response that had nothing to do with what I said. That strategy never works.

[flahute]

If you have 'had a majority of the American Whiskies out there', then at one time you must have must have tasted newer and better things than EC12.

You quoted part of what I said, then gave a response that had nothing to do with what I said. That strategy never works.

I think what he's trying to say is, yes, perhaps I've had newer bourbons that were better than EC12, but if they are a lot more expensive and a pain to get (or impossible to get), which is pretty likely since EC12 is a mid $20's bourbon, than heck, there's nothing wrong with loading up on one you know you like a lot so you can get a case discount and hedge against future price increases that you know are coming.

[TheNovaMan]

I've been meaning to try this one for a while, so I bought a bottle a few days ago. It's pretty good, and it also lends itself quite well to vatting.

[Spade]

When EC18 is reintroduced later this year, it's going to see quite a big price increase from the last time it was available. From NC's ABC website:

http://abc.nc.gov/Pricing/ViewItem/86232

The price there will be $130. Times have changed.

[amg]

When EC18 is reintroduced later this year, it's going to see quite a big price increase from the last time it was available. From NC's ABC website:

http://abc.nc.gov/Pricing/ViewItem/86232

The price there will be $130. Times have changed.

Wow, those last six years of aging must be a lot more costly than the first twelve.

[Jazz Nut]

Wow, those last six years of aging must be a lot more costly than the first twelve.

[kjbeggs]

I've already started buying EC12 by the handle, instead of the 750. If it starts to become more scarce (which will likely happen after the next EC18 release, ala' Weller 12 and it's "Pappyness"), I'll likely buy a case, like I should have done with ETL two or three years ago.

Then Larceny will likely move to the front of the daily drinker list.

[mbroo5880i]

Not to offend anyone because I know several folks in the forum really like EC18, EC21, etc. However, for me it is way too woody. I would be better off spending my $130 on four ricks of firewood.

[Josh]

In the words of Smoky, I second that emotion.

[flahute]

Not to offend anyone because I know several folks in the forum really like EC18, EC21, etc. However, for me it is way too woody. I would be better off spending my $130 on four ricks of firewood.

[meadeweber]

I've already started buying EC12 by the handle, instead of the 750. If it starts to become more scarce (which will likely happen after the next EC18 release, ala' Weller 12 and it's "Pappyness"), I'll likely buy a case, like I should have done with ETL two or three years ago.

Then Larceny will likely move to the front of the daily drinker list.

I'm not sure I agree with or understand your explanation of an impending scarcity of EC12.

[nd2005]

I'm not sure I agree with or understand your explanation of an impending scarcity of EC12.

Everyone seems to be freaking out about EC12 after they changed the label, speculating that quality will drop or they will ditch the age statement. Lot of posts of people buying it up by the case.

I don't get it either.

[squire]

Scarcity doesn't seem likely, EC12 has grown into a big seller and HH has the resources to keep it going.

[kjbeggs]

I'm not sure I agree with or understand your explanation of an impending scarcity of EC12.

My point was just that there are so many uneducated Bourbon buyers out there now, that started buying up all the Weller 12 because someone told then 'it's basically Pappy", I could see the same thing happening if they are chasing elusive bottles of EC18, only to be told the bottles of EC12 that were gathering dust a week before are "basically the same as EC18"...

[BonVivant84]

Everyone seems to be freaking out about EC12 after they changed the label, speculating that quality will drop or they will ditch the age statement. Lot of posts of people buying it up by the case.

I don't get it either.

I just received my case of EC12 today. For me at least i purchased it because I love it and got an amazing price on it ($22 a bottle). I personally dont think EC12 is going anywhere or even will have it's quality drop BUT I do just have a feeling that a its going to go up significantly in price. Recently the new price for EC18 has started to trickle out around the $130 mark. After seeing that the EC12 label change suddenly made a lot of sense to me. EC12 at $26 and EC18 at $130 is a massive gap and I have to imagine that they will bridge it. Given the label change i see it going sometime in the future a new EC NAS around $25, EC12 around $40 ECBP around $70 and EC 18 around $130. If the markets swing that way I will still buy EC12 (albeit not as often) because its consistently awesome, high quality and will still be priced competitively with other Bourbons around that age, but for right now why not get while the gettin is good.

[Spade]

Scarcity doesn't seem likely, EC12 has grown into a big seller and HH has the resources to keep it going.

I agree. It wouldn't surprise me if EC12 jumped in price over the next few years. It still goes for around $25, which is a great value relative to comparable offerings from other distilleries. I wouldn't even be shocked if it jumped quite a bit. If this were an everyday pour for me, I might put a few aside given the expected price increase. But, I'd be surprised if it became as scarce as ETL or Weller. Even after everyone on reddit and twitter freaked out over the new label, I still see plenty of the old label EC12 in stores around here. I don't think EC18 has nearly the cachet of PVW amongst new bourbon drinkers, but who knows?

Rather than any potential scarcity of EC12, I'm just blown away that a regular release (I assume EC18 will still be a regular release rather than an annual release but could of course be wrong on this) is going for such a high price. $130 is NDP territory.

After seeing that the EC12 label change suddenly made a lot of sense to me. EC12 at $26 and EC18 at $130 is a massive gap and I have to imagine that they will bridge it. Given the label change i see it going sometime in the future a new EC NAS around $25, EC12 around $40 ECBP around $70 and EC 18 around $130.

This makes perfect sense to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if exactly this scenario happened.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Spade

[fozzy71]

I just received my case of EC12 today. For me at least i purchased it because I love it and got an amazing price on it ($22 a bottle). I personally dont think EC12 is going anywhere or even will have it's quality drop BUT I do just have a feeling that a its going to go up significantly in price. Recently the new price for EC18 has started to trickle out around the $130 mark. After seeing that the EC12 label change suddenly made a lot of sense to me. EC12 at $26 .....

I agree. It wouldn't surprise me if EC12 jumped in price over the next few years. It still goes for around $25, .....

EC12 went up a month or two ago here in MI from $27 to $30, right around the time of the label change.

[meadeweber]

My point was just that there are so many uneducated Bourbon buyers out there now, that started buying up all the Weller 12 because someone told then 'it's basically Pappy", I could see the same thing happening if they are chasing elusive bottles of EC18, only to be told the bottles of EC12 that were gathering dust a week before are "basically the same as EC18"...

People would fall for that? Think of it in scotch terms. I'm looking for Highland Park 18. We don't have it, just get the standard 12 year it's "basically the same."

[kjbeggs]

People would fall for that? Think of it in scotch terms. I'm looking for Highland Park 18. We don't have it, just get the standard 12 year it's "basically the same."

Not anyone here, but there are so many people out there now just chasing the new hot thing. It won't work for long, as they'll quickly find out they can't flip the EC12 for a profit (unless of course they really do buy it all up).

Maybe at that point they'll decide to actually open it up and discover a nice Bourbon, before they move on to flavored tequila or whatever the next big thing is...

[flahute]

My point was just that there are so many uneducated Bourbon buyers out there now, that started buying up all the Weller 12 because someone told then 'it's basically Pappy", I could see the same thing happening if they are chasing elusive bottles of EC18, only to be told the bottles of EC12 that were gathering dust a week before are "basically the same as EC18"...

I think these are different scenarios. With Weller 12, you have a product that was somewhat limited already and you have a corresponding Van Winkle product of the same age that is essentially the same thing (I know, I know.....honey barrels, etc., but enough the same to get people to buy it as a Pappy substitute). You also have a product (PVW) that is the most hyped of all the bourbons.

With EC12 and EC18, there's the obvious 6yr age difference, and while though desirable, the EC18 and it's higher aged brothers (21 and 23) are not brands that people get as worked up over. Many a time this fall I watched as people showed up for BTAC and when it ran out were offered EC23 and they turned it down every time.

[kjbeggs]

I think these are different scenarios. With Weller 12, you have a product that was somewhat limited already and you have a corresponding Van Winkle product of the same age that is essentially the same thing (I know, I know.....honey barrels, etc., but enough the same to get people to buy it as a Pappy substitute). You also have a product (PVW) that is the most hyped of all the bourbons.

With EC12 and EC18, there's the obvious 6yr age difference, and while though desirable, the EC18 and it's higher aged brothers (21 and 23) are not brands that people get as worked up over. Many a time this fall I watched as people showed up for BTAC and when it ran out were offered EC23 and they turned it down every time.

I agree with all your points, (although I never had a problem finding Weller12 until just after the last PVW release, and I know TX is the W12 promised land). I don't seriously think Elijah Craig will disappear (I didn't say 12, because the age statement could still disappear), I was just using it as an example for my grumbling about the current craze and it's affect on stock.

Then again, I didn't expect ETL to disappear from shelves like it did. Hopefully no one will let slip that Elijah Craig has died (a couple hundred years ago).