Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[fishnbowljoe]

Thanks to 0895 for pointing out (as have I in the past) the games distributors play. Case discounts, pshaw!

 

Thanks to Macdad for bringing up the issue of regional sales. Yes, it would be nice to see regional sales figures. Maybe that way we could make better sense of the what’s, why’s and wherefores of this business. We all know that Weller sells in Texas, and they get their fair share. It also sells here in Illinois, and we get a decent amount, but not near as much as Texas. I’m gonna guess that BT sells much better here in Illinois, more so than it does in a Texas. A pattern maybe?

 

Yet another thing which again has been posted about by myself, and mentioned by others including Vosgar. For a few years now, restaurants and bars have been getting a much, much larger piece of the pie than they have before. I know this to be fact for more than one reason. In the past, Vosagar and I attended different spirits tastings put on by a couple of nice restaurants in our area. If the sprit was bourbon or rye, the local off premise (bar and restaurant) account sales rep for a well known distributor was always on hand. He basically told us as much. Unfortunately he retired not too long ago. I really miss seeing the guy at local tastings and such. He was a really nice guy. I personally think he retired for one; because he could. For two; ‘cause he got tired of all the bs. Another reason I know this is fact is because of a bar/restaurant I had lunch at yesterday. It had been a while since my wife and I had eaten there. I knew they had a nice bar, but.....  My wife and I ordered our lunch, and I meandered up to the bar just to take a look see. My jaw almost dropped.   Here’s a list of just the BT offerings they had. Blanton’s, Rock Hill Farms, ETL, EHT small batch & single barrel, Stagg JR, Weller SR/Antique/12, BT, ER, and Baby Saz. Here’s the crazy thing. While this was a fairly nice place, it was by no means ritzy, or overly upscale. Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmm. 

 

Biba! Joe

[0895]

1 hour ago, Harry in WashDC said:

It gonna TAKE a double wide to get all that liquid in there.  I have visions of some future archeologist finding me and all that bourbon and speculating about what kind of royal poobah warranted a FBB (Full Bourbon Burial).   Imagine the post grad theses (plural of thesis and not related to feces) some students will get to write about THAT!

 

Leave your SB.com screen name in there on a plaque, so when that gets posted in “dusty finds” in the year 3000 whatever, you get some credit. 

[HoustonNit]

It gonna TAKE a double wide to get all that liquid in there.  I have visions of some future archeologist finding me and all that bourbon and speculating about what kind of royal poobah warranted a FBB (Full Bourbon Burial).   Imagine the post grad theses (plural of thesis and not related to feces) some students will get to write about THAT!

Wow I’m going to be Harry when I grow up.

[BottledInBond]

Have we reached a peak yet? We’ll never know for sure when until it’s already happened. But douchebaggery gouging like this confirms we aren’t there yet if they sell out right away. But really, are there that many people stupid enough to pay $299 for a 6 year bourbon just because it’s a WFE label? Unfortunately until proven otherwise, the answer will continue to be yes 

[Phil T]

10 minutes ago, BottledInBond said:

Have we reached a peak yet? We’ll never know for sure when until it’s already happened. But douchebaggery gouging like this confirms we aren’t there yet if they sell out right away. But really, are there that many people stupid enough to pay $299 for a 6 year bourbon just because it’s a WFE label? Unfortunately until proven otherwise, the answer will continue to be yes 

 

Are there people stupid enough to pay $299 for any bourbon? Apparently so. I have no problem with it. It will not be me however.

 

A HH 6yr can be had for $11. And it is a very solid bourbon. Is the WFE 6yr barrel strength worth  $288 more? Sadly, yes, in today's crazy environment. 

 

[dad-proof]

9 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

Yet another thing which again has been posted about by myself, and mentioned by others including Vosgar. For a few years now, restaurants and bars have been getting a much, much larger piece of the pie than they have before.

 

I know some will object, but I am personally all for restaurants and bars getting a larger piece of the allocated pie than before.

 

Restaurants/bars have their own mark-up issues and abuses (like the pics of that Chicago restaurant posted here recently). And it would definitely be nice to be able to have bottles of GTS, WLW and MB#2 at home for whenever the mood strikes. However, the games the bars/restaurants play are at least legal, even when the ethics are up for debate. As noted above so much of the boom and run on BT/Saz/VW products in particular has been fueled by social media. Cravat wearers aside, the regional FB groups and (illegal) secondary markets, and to a lesser extent "what did you purchase today" threads have disproportionately glorified the hunt and rewarded the hunters. 

That's why I added "personally" above - there are people with enough time to hang out at shops for events, wait in long lines, chase distributor trucks around town, take multiple hour road trips, and google map every liquor store between Topeka and the beach come vacation time. Good for them, as long as they aren't flippers. And more power to those not with just the time, but the ability to develop great relationship with their local mongers. But with very rare exceptions, that's not me.  I'm at the stage of life with young kids, high risk/reward job, and multiple competing interests for most waking moments (and with a teething toddler, the sleeping ones too). And while I'm an enthusiast,  I'm also a lightweight! 

 

So yes, I miss the days of not being able to walk into my local for a RHF anytime I wanted to celebrate a good month or gift a client. But I am still able to walk into a few restaurants that I know of and get a pour for under $20 (and sometimes much less), so spending more bucks a pour in exchange for saving time that I can't afford is a solution that works best for me. (And the plus side of the job is entertaining clients a few times a quarter at restaurants that I may or may not choose for their whisk(e)y selection!)

 

Bourbon is my pressure-release valve, and I come to SB.com to escape the rest of life's crazy, not to add to it. So I join those that are enjoying the find-able pours, whether it be by the pour or bottle, and eagerly await the results of all these distiller expansions.

  

 

[jfw]

$300 for willett 6 year is just crazy.    While I can afford it i just say no.   No just no.   I can get BT for under $25.  

 

Joe

[The Black Tot]

Stay calm for a few more years.

 

The BT fermenters just made the jump to light speed.

[ThirstyinOhio]

Even with all of the fermenters coming on line, I'm not sure that the bubble is going to pop anytime soon.  Ohio released two Jefferson's private picks today (the state has not gotten into the barrel picking game since the state stores can't individually do it) and check out the line for that release.  We aren't talking Pappy or BTAC, just your basic Jefferson's picks that sit just about everywhere else in this country.....this was just ONE of the stores that got some of the bottles.

Edited October 11, 2019 by ThirstyinOhio

[HoustonNit]

Even with all of the fermenters coming on line, I'm not sure that the bubble is going to pop anytime soon.  Ohio released two Jefferson's private picks today (the state has not gotten into the barrel picking game since the state stores can't individually do it) and check out the line for that release.  We aren't talking Pappy or BTAC, just your basic Jefferson's picks that sit just about everywhere else in this country.....this was just ONE of the stores that got some of the bottles.

Wow that stinks, no wonder your thirsty. Looks like a trip across the river is needed.

[PaulO]

4 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Wow that stinks, no wonder your thirsty. Looks like a trip across the river is needed.

 

Have you not seem some of his other posts? 

[fishnbowljoe]

On 9/18/2019 at 5:32 PM, The Black Tot said:

The BT fermenters just made the jump to light speed.

The BT fermenters have been at light speed for a while. Joining them recently have been one of the old, late 1800’s fermenter unearthed a few years ago, plus four brand new fermenters. A new cooling tower and four new cookers have also joined the bourbon journey.  “Looking good Billy Ray! “ 

 

Biba! Joe

[The Black Tot]

2 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

The BT fermenters have been at light speed for a while. Joining them recently have been one of the old, late 1800’s fermenter unearthed a few years ago, plus four brand new fermenters. A new cooling tower and four new cookers have also joined the bourbon journey.  “Looking good Billy Ray! “ 

 

Biba! Joe

Yeah, but unless I've got it wrong, the 4 new fermenters installed during the summer shutdown in August are the biggest they've ever put in. 

 

It's too long ago for me to remember the numbers, but I remember thinking "OK, the bottleneck will be fixed in August"

Edited October 12, 2019 by The Black Tot

[The Black Tot]

8 hours ago, ThirstyinOhio said:

Even with all of the fermenters coming on line, I'm not sure that the bubble is going to pop anytime soon.  Ohio released two Jefferson's private picks today (the state has not gotten into the barrel picking game since the state stores can't individually do it) and check out the line for that release.  We aren't talking Pappy or BTAC, just your basic Jefferson's picks that sit just about everywhere else in this country.....this was just ONE of the stores that got some of the bottles.

 

Just by eyeball, if you had one more barrel of the stuff at this store, everyone would get more than one.

 

With every distillery having tripled-to-quadrupled-to-octupled their production, we're headed to that kind of increase in supply in the not-too-distant future. For 6-7yr products we're only a few years away now (apart from BT, whose last serious bottleneck was removed only this August).

[GeeTen]

8 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

The BT fermenters have been at light speed for a while. Joining them recently have been one of the old, late 1800’s fermenter unearthed a few years ago, plus four brand new fermenters. A new cooling tower and four new cookers have also joined the bourbon journey.  “Looking good Billy Ray! “ 

 

Biba! Joe

"Feeling good, Louis!"   

 

[GoCubs85]

On 9/16/2019 at 11:04 AM, dad-proof said:

 

I know some will object, but I am personally all for restaurants and bars getting a larger piece of the allocated pie than before.

 

Restaurants/bars have their own mark-up issues and abuses (like the pics of that Chicago restaurant posted here recently). And it would definitely be nice to be able to have bottles of GTS, WLW and MB#2 at home for whenever the mood strikes. However, the games the bars/restaurants play are at least legal, even when the ethics are up for debate. As noted above so much of the boom and run on BT/Saz/VW products in particular has been fueled by social media. Cravat wearers aside, the regional FB groups and (illegal) secondary markets, and to a lesser extent "what did you purchase today" threads have disproportionately glorified the hunt and rewarded the hunters. 

That's why I added "personally" above - there are people with enough time to hang out at shops for events, wait in long lines, chase distributor trucks around town, take multiple hour road trips, and google map every liquor store between Topeka and the beach come vacation time. Good for them, as long as they aren't flippers. And more power to those not with just the time, but the ability to develop great relationship with their local mongers. But with very rare exceptions, that's not me.  I'm at the stage of life with young kids, high risk/reward job, and multiple competing interests for most waking moments (and with a teething toddler, the sleeping ones too). And while I'm an enthusiast,  I'm also a lightweight! 

 

So yes, I miss the days of not being able to walk into my local for a RHF anytime I wanted to celebrate a good month or gift a client. But I am still able to walk into a few restaurants that I know of and get a pour for under $20 (and sometimes much less), so spending more bucks a pour in exchange for saving time that I can't afford is a solution that works best for me. (And the plus side of the job is entertaining clients a few times a quarter at restaurants that I may or may not choose for their whisk(e)y selection!)

 

Bourbon is my pressure-release valve, and I come to SB.com to escape the rest of life's crazy, not to add to it. So I join those that are enjoying the find-able pours, whether it be by the pour or bottle, and eagerly await the results of all these distiller expansions.

  

 

Totally agree here.  Plenty of available stuff that’s excellent.  The better hunt for me is finding gems like WT Rare Breed and EW BIB and being able to tell me local friends about it and they can also go buy.

 

Sure, it’s also fun to find those rare bottles but it’s not at all necessary nor would I ever spend much more then $150 on any bottle.

[HoustonNit]

Have you not seem some of his other posts? [emoji1787]

Hehe, yeah I’m sure he’s very good at navigating the Ohio River.

[DCFan]

5 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

Hehe, yeah I’m sure he’s very good at navigating the Ohio River.

 

Maybe he's not up to date on his shots?  

[The Black Tot]

If you got a retail bottle of GTS for 90 bucks, a 1.50z (42ml) pour costs 90x42/750=5 bucks. 

 

Most bars I've been in these days change more than 30 bucks a pour.

 

If paying a minimum of 6x retail is doing us a favor, I'd hate to see what a rip off would look like.

 

I think the solution is pretty simple. BT could take control of the situation tomorrow.

 

You want Pappy or BTAC? You register on a list with the distillery with a photo ID, and a random lottery will result.

 

If you win, you have 12 months to pick your bottles up from the distillery gift shop, AT RETAIL. If you can't produce your photo ID, you don't get your bottle.

 

The people who don't show up in 12months, the bottles get rolled over into next years lottery.

 

You will sell EVERY bottle. EVERY bottle will be sold at retail. Even the distributor markup will actually go to the producer, instead of a retailer.

 

Flippers won't be able to scam a lottery. Even if they register a boatload of people, they would have to arrange every single person they register to be willing to go to BT and pick up the bottle with their ID. The travel for which isn't going to be cost effective.

 

And yeah, I get it. If you're far from Kentucky, you won't think this is fair. But I live in London, and I think it's fair, and better than all the crap we deal with year over year with the present system which breaks harder every season.

 

No bars. No restaurants. Just the fans. Remember when it used to be said that BTAC and Pappy were about thanking their loyal customers for their year's patronage? That's why the MSRP is still under a hundred bucks. Selling to bars and restaurants ensures the fans get screwed.

 

I think the number of bottles of BTAC/Pappy that get sold for retail is probably down to a sliver of the pie these days. BT could fix it with the above if they wanted to, and even make more money in the process (capturing all the retail mark up for their own gift shop). It will even boost your distillery tourism - maybe someone will buy a t-shirt or cap while they're there picking up a bottle. Most will take a tour.

 

Sure, go after the flippers like BT says they're going to this year. But most of your flippers are now retailers.

 

I could write the code for such a lottery in an afternoon, and I'm not even a professional programmer.

[HoustonNit]

BTAC and Pappy are a thanks to there loyal customers. There loyal retail customers who bought crap from Sazerac all year.

[dad-proof]

6 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

If paying a minimum of 6x retail is doing us a favor, I'd hate to see what a rip off would look like.

Most of the food and beverage stuffs served at a restaurant will be 6x or more the price of retail. And most - eggs, salad, cheese, soda, beer, etc. - are ubiquitous commodities. I can even cook/prepare/open most of those items just as well as any restaurant, yet I still eat out and buy those things when convenient. So yeah, when I can find GTS at a restaurant for "only" 4-6x retail that I otherwise could not find at all, they are doing me a bit of a favor. 

 

I'm ok with the economy of convenience.

 

[lcpfratn]

If you got a retail bottle of GTS for 90 bucks, a 1.50z (42ml) pour costs 90x42/750=5 bucks. 
 
Most bars I've been in these days change more than 30 bucks a pour.
 
If paying a minimum of 6x retail is doing us a favor, I'd hate to see what a rip off would look like.
 
I think the solution is pretty simple. BT could take control of the situation tomorrow.
 
You want Pappy or BTAC? You register on a list with the distillery with a photo ID, and a random lottery will result.
 
If you win, you have 12 months to pick your bottles up from the distillery gift shop, AT RETAIL. If you can't produce your photo ID, you don't get your bottle.
 
The people who don't show up in 12months, the bottles get rolled over into next years lottery.
 
You will sell EVERY bottle. EVERY bottle will be sold at retail. Even the distributor markup will actually go to the producer, instead of a retailer.
 
Flippers won't be able to scam a lottery. Even if they register a boatload of people, they would have to arrange every single person they register to be willing to go to BT and pick up the bottle with their ID. The travel for which isn't going to be cost effective.
 
And yeah, I get it. If you're far from Kentucky, you won't think this is fair. But I live in London, and I think it's fair, and better than all the crap we deal with year over year with the present system which breaks harder every season.
 
No bars. No restaurants. Just the fans. Remember when it used to be said that BTAC and Pappy were about thanking their loyal customers for their year's patronage? That's why the MSRP is still under a hundred bucks. Selling to bars and restaurants ensures the fans get screwed.
 
I think the number of bottles of BTAC/Pappy that get sold for retail is probably down to a sliver of the pie these days. BT could fix it with the above if they wanted to, and even make more money in the process (capturing all the retail mark up for their own gift shop). It will even boost your distillery tourism - maybe someone will buy a t-shirt or cap while they're there picking up a bottle. Most will take a tour.
 
Sure, go after the flippers like BT says they're going to this year. But most of your flippers are now retailers.
 
I could write the code for such a lottery in an afternoon, and I'm not even a professional programmer.

I don’t think it would be as easy as that because of the three legged stool legalities of the liquor business...distilleries, wholesalers and retailers. Neither BT nor any other distillery can control the retail distribution like you propose. The distilleries are apparently allowed a few exclusive gift shop only labels...I’m not sure if that is due to special state laws or what, but I believe distillery gift shops are still technically licensed as retail liquor stores and the store inventory actually goes through a wholesaler...at least on paper. If anyone knows if I’m wrong about that, please correct me. So, unless the three legged stool of the business is changed, the distribution will continue like it is.

I also don’t blame ALL of the retailers, bars and restaurants for the situation we find ourselves in. Certainly some of them deserve our scorn, but the secondary market, in my opinion, is really what is behind all of this. Retailers get tired of seeing the stuff they sell at retail ending up in the secondary market at multiples of the price the sold it for, so many have decided they’re going to share in some or all of that extra profit, especially when they likely had to buy a lot of other long term inventory in order to get the allocated bottles they got anyway. The restaurants know about the secondary market value too, of course, and they likely have to purchase a good bit of other inventory in order get some of those special bottles. They don’t want those special bottles disappearing too soon, and know that they are a special pour for their business, so of course they are going to price them at a higher price point than their regular menu items. You and I generally agree on a lot, and we’re probably not really differing too much here, but just wanted to add my thoughts.

I certainly don’t condone some of the ridiculous prices by retailers that I’ve seen on the “what did you pass on” thread. Doubling retail or maybe a bit more on some things is understandable, but $200 for W12 or $500 for CYPB or something similar for WFP are ridiculous prices. As I’ve said many times on this forum, I’ve found that if you can find three or four stores that you patronize regularly, and really get to know the staff and owners, you’d be surprised what you can get at a reasonable price. I know that may be hard to do in some areas, and may be hard for you since you travel so much, but it has worked for me. Cheers...I’ll have one for you since I know you can’t right now!

[The Black Tot]

I don't blame all the retailers. But by now, it appears I'm blaming most of them for one form of rip off or another. It's certainly a common enough problem now that something could be done if the will was there. But fair enough., it is not.

 

I already had the three or four patronized stores. I even had 6 or 7. One by one and year over year they all went to the $400/GTS side.

 

$200 for W12 is ridiculous, but apparently it's a desirable price if you pay by the pour. That doesn't add up to me, but clearly this model is working for the establishments.

 

I'm not sure about BT not being allowed to sell the limiteds from the distillery, but you probably know the rules better than I. 4R used to sell their limiteds that way (from the distillery, one per named/ID'd person, although you could designate other people to pick them up so it could have been exploited by flippers of the day), plus a whole pile of single barrels. But even if BT formed an alliance with one distributor +one store or chain under the condition that they sold at MSRP, they could get it done.

 

Anyway, boom rant over. 

[flahute]

9 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

I don't blame all the retailers. But by now, it appears I'm blaming most of them for one form of rip off or another. It's certainly a common enough problem now that something could be done if the will was there. But fair enough., it is not.

 

I already had the three or four patronized stores. I even had 6 or 7. One by one and year over year they all went to the $400/GTS side.

 

$200 for W12 is ridiculous, but apparently it's a desirable price if you pay by the pour. That doesn't add up to me, but clearly this model is working for the establishments.

 

I'm not sure about BT not being allowed to sell the limiteds from the distillery, but you probably know the rules better than I. 4R used to sell their limiteds that way (from the distillery, one per named/ID'd person, although you could designate other people to pick them up so it could have been exploited by flippers of the day), plus a whole pile of single barrels. But even if BT formed an alliance with one distributor +one store or chain under the condition that they sold at MSRP, they could get it done.

 

Anyway, boom rant over. 

They can sell from the distillery if they want. Willett does this as you know. As Jeff said above, the adherence to the 3 tier system must be observed but for items like this it can handled on paper. There is a law that limits the amount of distillery exclusives as to not undercut retailers so some of what you release has to be made available to retailers. Willett does this by making a small number of cases available in the wild. (Now that their barrel picks are out there again they might be able to keep the extra aged barrels all in house).

Four Roses as you know does sell limiteds from the distillery but they also put most of them through normal channels.

[JoeTerp]

the lines waiting outside stores on truck days have been getting bigger with more and more people showing up before opening and doing it for less and less restricted items.