Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[OldScoutGuy]

12 hours ago, EarthQuake said:

Smooth Ambler was founded in 2009, and stopped putting out MGP sourced bottles in what, late 2017 / early 2018? So they theoretically could have released a 10-ish year that spent most of its life in their rack house, if they bought it shortly after it was barreled and transferred it to their location. So maybe they did get some barrels early on, which aged primarily at SA's facilities. Maybe they bought some and aged it for only a year or two. Maybe they bought some barrels near the end that went straight into production. Perhaps all of these things happened to some degree. If there is a reliable source of information on how long those barrels aged at SA, that would be interesting to see.

I don't know how "reliable" I am, but I'll share what I believe to be correct.

 

You can can derive an idea of how long a barrel spent at Smooth Ambler by its barrel number. Barrels aren't assigned a number until they actually arrive at SA. Numberwise, they're just assigned whatever is next in line and these are mixed in with the numbering of their own distillate. For example, the oldest barrel I know of currently on the property is #10, a barrel of their own wheat distillate. Compare that with barrel #214, the very first (and best) LE Rye they released, and you get an idea that's a barrel they had on site for a while. I don't know the actual aging split, but you get an idea.

 

i feel like the SA MGP bourbon sweet spot was 8-10 year around 120 proof. That stuff was liquid gold. You'll  usually find barrels of it anywhere from #500 - #4500. That has to be the first batch they bought and slowly started moving over to West Virginia. That stuff is long gone, and the world realized how great it was way too late.  I hope someone can find that magic spot again.  

 

The next wave of MGP they had was oddly around 100 proof. Good, but IMO not as good as the older stuff. They still have some of this around that they're slowly putting out in the gift shop. Some of it's up to 14 years. You'll see barrel numbers on 100 proof stuff as low as the late 2000's and now up into 10,000 - 15000's. That tells me that most of that has just been sitting in Indiana.  But again, that's JUST my thoughts.

 

I have other thoughts, but I'll leave it here. 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by OldScoutGuy

[EarthQuake]

2 hours ago, OldScoutGuy said:

I don't know how "reliable" I am, but I'll share what I believe to be correct.

 

You can can derive an idea of how long a barrel spent at Smooth Ambler by its barrel number. Barrels aren't assigned a number until they actually arrive at SA. Numberwise, they're just assigned whatever is next in line and these are mixed in with the numbering of their own distillate. For example, the oldest barrel I know of currently on the property is #10, a barrel of their own wheat distillate. Compare that with barrel #214, the very first (and best) LE Rye they released, and you get an idea that's a barrel they had on site for a while. I don't know the actual aging split, but you get an idea.

 

i feel like the SA MGP bourbon sweet spot was 8-10 year around 120 proof. That stuff was liquid gold. You'll  usually find barrels of it anywhere from #500 - #4500. That has to be the first batch they bought and slowly started moving over to West Virginia. That stuff is long gone, and the world realized how great it was way too late.  I hope someone can find that magic spot again.  

 

The next wave of MGP they had was oddly around 100 proof. Good, but IMO not as good as the older stuff. They still have some of this around that they're slowly putting out in the gift shop. Some of it's up to 14 years. You'll see barrel numbers on 100 proof stuff as low as the late 2000's and now up into 10,000 - 15000's. That tells me that most of that has just been sitting in Indiana.  But again, that's JUST my thoughts.

 

I have other thoughts, but I'll leave it here. 

 

 

Thanks, that's very good info. So yeah, it sounds like they had some barrels earlier on, and some of the more recent stuff probably didn't spend much time aging in their facilities. I would be curious to know when they first started getting the MGP barrels in, just to get an idea of what portion of aging was done in their facility.

 

The difference in proof is interesting too. Perhaps down to different aging conditions (or different locations in whatever rack house it lived in). The latest Blaum 12 batch I have here is 106pf I think, so it's probably reasonable to suggest those are from similar barrels - recently purchased barrels aged at MGP? I've had earlier batches of Blaum 10 and 12 that were closer to 120 though, released in the last year-ish. So maybe MGP is running low on well aged, higher proof barrels? I wonder how much of that is barrel selection and how much is aging location.

Edited August 28, 2019 by EarthQuake

[HoustonNit]

Didn’t someone say that MGP rickhouse where conductive to a lowering of proof. Perhaps lower proof MGP barrels spent more time at MGP aging vs higher proof ones?

[JCwhammie]

1 hour ago, HoustonNit said:

Didn’t someone say that MGP rickhouse where conductive to a lowering of proof. Perhaps lower proof MGP barrels spent more time at MGP aging vs higher proof ones?

I thought I also read that fairly recently. Maybe Nancy said that when she explained her process of choosing barrels for Magnus? 

[Whiskeythink.com]

On 8/27/2019 at 6:44 PM, EarthQuake said:

Probably because they're better at making and selling bourbon in bulk than they are at marketing directly to consumers. With MGP's latest retail endeavors, they seem to be having a little more success, but I don't think they're nearly as good at designing and marketing products as SA or Willett. Whoever is in charge of retail releases at MGP seems to be about 5-10 years behind recent consumer trends..

This certainly seems to be the case. I picked up a bottle of the Remus Repeal Reserve Series 2 (the 100 proof) & its really excellent. Yet it just sits on the shelf while the sourced bottles fly off. No one seems to care that this is a serious blend of 10yr MGP barrels, picked by their master distiller himself & presented in limited quanities, priced below what a CS sourced SB goes for. I guess their marketing is not tater-centric enough? Fine with me...

[HoustonNit]

I thought I also read that fairly recently. Maybe Nancy said that when she explained her process of choosing barrels for Magnus? 

I believe it was Nancy.

[EarthQuake]

33 minutes ago, Whiskeythink.com said:

This certainly seems to be the case. I picked up a bottle of the Remus Repeal Reserve Series 2 (the 100 proof) & its really excellent. Yet it just sits on the shelf while the sourced bottles fly off. No one seems to care that this is a serious blend of 10yr MGP barrels, picked by their master distiller himself & presented in limited quanities, priced below what a CS sourced SB goes for. I guess their marketing is not tater-centric enough? Fine with me...

Same, these Remus bottles seem to be sitting around here as well (to my delight, I will wait for the local grocery stores to discount them). As are the Redemption barrel proof bottles, which a couple years ago seemed too expensive. I grabbed a new label Redemption 10 year high rye, which Total Wine in Madison somehow had priced at $80, while the old label 9 year was $100. Anyway, the Redemption was one of the best bottles I've bought all year.

 

With all this MGP chatter, I had to crack open my Blaum 12 106pf tonight. I gotta say, I don't think it's as good as the last batch I had (114pf). Lower quality (and proof) because it was aged at those crappy MGP rack houses, or just poor barrel selection now that they're onto the dregs of their stock? We may never know. 

[DCFan]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-spirits-even-at-529-a-shot-japanese-whisky-is-selling-out-fast-11567698000?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2

 

Article in the 9/6 WSJ about the insane demand for Japanese whiskeys.  It's a paywall but you can read the first 2 paragraphs to get a feel.  $100 shots just so someone can crow about it on social media.  $529 for a 2 ounce pour of another.  We haven't come close to hitting the peak.

[BMartin42]

Binny’s Springfield got Weller 107 in and apparently sold out in hours without ever putting it out for $$59.99. The insanity continues and I fear continues upward. Just crazy.

[mal00768]

A year and a half ago I purchased a bottle of EHT small batch for $35. Now its no where to be found. I guess the only way to consistently drink anything other than crap is to clear the shelves.

Edited September 7, 2019 by mal00768

[Richnimrod]

1 hour ago, mal00768 said:

A year and a half ago I purchased a bottle of EHT small batch for $35. Now its no where to be found. I guess the only way to consistently drink anything other than crap is to clear the shelves.

I don't take your meaning here, mal.   

If you're suggesting there is no longer any Bourbon on shelves that's worth drinking (I assume you mean for similar, or at least reasonable, prices?), I can't agree... at least in Michigan.   

Or, are you saying you regret not clearing the shelf a year and a half back of that EHT?     (Was that the only decent brand in your area at that time... or now?)

Either way, I'd say looking at any number of other brands around that price should yield a good number that aren't "crap" unless your area is really a Bourbon wasteland.

[HoustonNit]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-spirits-even-at-529-a-shot-japanese-whisky-is-selling-out-fast-11567698000?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2
 
Article in the 9/6 WSJ about the insane demand for Japanese whiskeys.  It's a paywall but you can read the first 2 paragraphs to get a feel.  $100 shots just so someone can crow about it on social media.  $529 for a 2 ounce pour of another.  We haven't come close to hitting the peak.

This quote from the article was interesting,

“Japanese whisky isn’t unique for its scarcity and high prices, but unlike other hot brands such as Pappy Van Winkle, the notoriously hard-to-get bourbon, the widespread absence of Japanese whisky from the market isn’t deliberately manufactured. Rather, Japanese whisky makers didn’t foresee the rapid increase in demand for their products in the early 2010s in time to start producing more.”

[fanostra]

On 8/28/2019 at 8:01 PM, Whiskeythink.com said:

This certainly seems to be the case. I picked up a bottle of the Remus Repeal Reserve Series 2 (the 100 proof) & its really excellent. Yet it just sits on the shelf while the sourced bottles fly off. No one seems to care that this is a serious blend of 10yr MGP barrels, picked by their master distiller himself & presented in limited quanities, priced below what a CS sourced SB goes for. I guess their marketing is not tater-centric enough? Fine with me...

Tonight I opened my bottle of Remus Repeal Reserve 2 after reading your post. I bought this a few months ago on the basis of Binny's recommendation but had it stashed away until I finished off a few open bottles. I wholeheartedly concur with you. Kind of wish I had opened it up sooner to get another bottle with the Binny's coupon yesterday...

[PaulO]

On 9/7/2019 at 7:53 PM, mal00768 said:

A year and a half ago I purchased a bottle of EHT small batch for $35. Now its no where to be found. I guess the only way to consistently drink anything other than crap is to clear the shelves.

My solution is to forget about anything from Sazerac.

I find that mid shelf products from the legacy distillers to be quite good, and not hard to find.  I'm talking about: WT, HH, Beam, 4R.  Lately B-F has come out with some good ones: ET BIB, OF Rye, JDSB.  

[kevinbrink]

On 9/7/2019 at 7:53 PM, mal00768 said:

A year and a half ago I purchased a bottle of EHT small batch for $35. Now its no where to be found. I guess the only way to consistently drink anything other than crap is to clear the shelves.

For my tastes there are better bourbons on the shelf all the time than EHT and pretty much all BT/Saz products which seem to be the source of 90% of the forlorn bourbon drinkers woes

[flahute]

15 hours ago, kevinbrink said:

For my tastes there are better bourbons on the shelf all the time than EHT and pretty much all BT/Saz products which seem to be the source of 90% of the forlorn bourbon drinkers woes

PREACH brother kevinbrink.

[Mako254]

5 hours ago, flahute said:

PREACH brother kevinbrink.

 

I have found that if you shift your focus away from BT products the boom isn’t as boom-ish. I’m happy with what I like and how accessible it is to me. 

 

[BigSkyDrams]

On 9/8/2019 at 5:30 AM, HoustonNit said:

 

This quote from the article was interesting,

“Japanese whisky isn’t unique for its scarcity and high prices, but unlike other hot brands such as Pappy Van Winkle, the notoriously hard-to-get bourbon, the widespread absence of Japanese whisky from the market isn’t deliberately manufactured. Rather, Japanese whisky makers didn’t foresee the rapid increase in demand for their products in the early 2010s in time to start producing more.”

 

Is it indeed the consensus that BT/Saz is creating an artificial scarcity? That doesn’t make much sense to me, because clearly the aging required to meet the statements on those limited-release bottles imposes some level of scarcity on how much they can release any given year, and they also don’t want to age product indefinitely. At what point does withholding already aged product (e.g. 20+ PVW) from release in order to release some extra cases of an even more aged product (e.g. 23+) become a “robbing Peter to pay Paul” situation?  Or is the article suggesting that they’re bottling significantly more PVW (or similar) than they’re releasing each year? 

 

I’ll profess complete ignorance on this subject, and the way these legacy distillers make decisions for bottles at the top of their product line, but I find it a very interesting question from an economics perspective.

[flahute]

8 hours ago, BigSkyDrams said:

Is it indeed the consensus that BT/Saz is creating an artificial scarcity?

That is a popular conspiracy theory but I would stop way short of saying there's any consensus.

 

I've said this on this many a time at this point: when a newbie just getting into bourbon is told that Pappy and BTAC is the best and then finds out they can't get them, what do they do?

They turn to other products made by the same distiller. Hence the constant run on all BT products. This was the case even before all the articles came out saying "if you can't find Pappy, get Weller 12" and so forth.

[Harry in WashDC]

On 9/12/2019 at 10:05 AM, kevinbrink said:

For my tastes there are better bourbons on the shelf all the time than EHT and pretty much all BT/Saz products which seem to be the source of 90% of the forlorn bourbon drinkers woes

YEP!  I never chase the EHTs.  If I see one at MSRP AND IF I am in the mood and ALSO don't have one, I MAY pick it up, just because . . .

 

Sometimes, I must admit, I only buy it when I forget it is in my "second tier" of faves.  Getting old is not for sissies OR for bourbon geeks.

[HoustonNit]

Is it indeed the consensus that BT/Saz is creating an artificial scarcity?

That is a popular conspiracy theory but I would stop way short of saying there's any consensus.

Yeah the whole reason I posted the quote was the way the WSJ writer posted the statement like it was a fact that everyone agrees with the BT product shortage is artificial unlike Suntory not anticipating a huge spike in demand in Japanese whisky.

I respect the knowledge and opinions of a lot of people here more than some writer posting articles at the WSJ and no one here has ever really pushed this claim of an artificial shortage.

There may be some argument that Saz/BT could pump out more of stuff like THH, Stagg or WLW but there not really in the business of selling BTAC. They are in the business of Fireball and just happened to plan very poorly for future demands in regional products like Weller. Unlike the guys at Campari that run their business a little better.

[PaulO]

This is just an observation.  When the VW brands changed to be all sourced from BT - the Weller disappeared.

 

Also, whatever line of consumer goods, the maker tends to keep the volume of high end product low.  If it's rare, must be worth more, or appear so.

[Harry in WashDC]

10 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 

 

Yeah the whole reason I posted the quote was the way the WSJ writer posted the statement like it was a fact that everyone agrees with the BT product shortage is artificial unlike Suntory not anticipating a huge spike in demand in Japanese whisky.

I respect the knowledge and opinions of a lot of people here more than some writer posting articles at the WSJ and no one here has ever really pushed this claim of an artificial shortage.

There may be some argument that Saz/BT could pump out more of stuff like THH, Stagg or WLW but there not really in the business of selling BTAC. They are in the business of Fireball and just happened to plan very poorly for future demands in regional products like Weller. Unlike the guys at Campari that run their business a little better.

Another indication - if Saz BT were artificially withholding product, I'd expect they'd be jacking up their wholesale prices commensurately.  Otherwise, why withhold product?  Just to be a--holes?  For-profit entities don't usually intentionally act like a--holes without a good reason.  Campari Group had revenues of about 1.7Billion Euros (US$1.89Billion) in 2018, and Saz/BT had revenues then of about US$1Billion (900Million Euros).  Saz is the second largest spirits company in the US albeit many (most?) of its brands are NDP or down market.  IIRC, Saz BT has spent a TON of money on their BT/Barton distilleries over the last five years to meet expected demand.  That means that beaucoup basic BT, supposedly 5-6 years old, should be hitting the shelves starting next year.  I only hope I live long enough to see us awash in it.

[HoustonNit]

Another indication - if Saz BT were artificially withholding product, I'd expect they'd be jacking up their wholesale prices commensurately.  Otherwise, why withhold product?  Just to be a--holes?  For-profit entities don't usually intentionally act like a--holes without a good reason.  Campari Group had revenues of about 1.7Billion Euros (US$1.89Billion) in 2018, and Saz/BT had revenues then of about US$1Billion (900Million Euros).  Saz is the second largest spirits company in the US albeit many (most?) of its brands are NDP or down market.  IIRC, Saz BT has spent a TON of money on their BT/Barton distilleries over the last five years to meet expected demand.  That means that beaucoup basic BT, supposedly 5-6 years old, should be hitting the shelves starting next year.  I only hope I live long enough to see us awash in it.

Ha this is an excellent point there not really jacking up prices so there artificially creating this demand there not doing a very job of it.

[HoustonNit]

This is just an observation.  When the VW brands changed to be all sourced from BT - the Weller disappeared.
 
Also, whatever line of consumer goods, the maker tends to keep the volume of high end product low.  If it's rare, must be worth more, or appear so.

Are you saying the Weller stock disappeared because VW line took a good chunk of stock or because the demand for Weller skyrocketed and stock ran out because VW basically endorsed Weller?