Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[fishnbowljoe]

28 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

 

BOOM!!!

Thanks brother. May I have another?  
 

Biba! Joe

[flahute]

7 minutes ago, fishnbowljoe said:

Thanks brother. May I have another?  
 

Biba! Joe

What............is happening?

[Vosgar]

6 hours ago, flahute said:

What............is happening?

This happens occasionally when he gets into his Canadian whiskey. Lord only knows what he'd be like after some Scotch.

[mal00768]

14 hours ago, Vosgar said:

This happens occasionally when he gets into his Canadian whiskey. Lord only knows what he'd be like after some Scotch.

Well as long as the clothes stay on..

[fishnbowljoe]

I was being rhetorically smart assed in my Boom rant.  

 

As I've said before, I believe that the boom is basically over. It's just that certain entities are prolonging our agony by trying to squeeze every last dollar they can out of the situation. This includes, but is probably not limited to;  collectors, speculators, flippers, taters, and stores that are of the same ilk.  

 

Biba! Joe

 

 

[lcpfratn]

From my perspective, the boom is still far from over. It will never be over for some of the LE products as long as they continue to truly be limited in quantity and high in quality. And as far as the standard currently allocated products go, the boom will eventually end, but I think the five year prediction that I made for the end a few years ago needs a few more years added at this point.

I base this on the fact that there are even more items allocated and hard to find now than just a few years ago. Production has definitely increased and more expansion is ongoing, but we all know that it takes quite awhile for the current production increase to eventually start hitting store shelves. In the mean time, demand is rising as more folks are getting interested in spirits of all kinds, but especially bourbon...just look at how many new members have joined SB in the last year, not to mention the growth of the many YouTube channels related to brown spirits.

The flippers, collectors and taters certainly share part of the blame for the boom craziness...many of us have probably fallen into the last two categories in some fashion during our time pursuing this “hobby.” Some stores may also share some of the blame, but the issue with them most of the time has more to do with their business practices rather than whether or not they have any impact on the boom. Retail stores are always at the mercy of the monopolistic suppliers they have to deal with and that sometimes results in poor business decisions. However, distilleries and wholesalers have a vested interest in perpetuating the boom as long as they can, and while increased demand has certainly impacted their ability to get ahead of the boom, they continue to do things to perpetuate the boom...and if I was in the distillery or wholesale business, I’d probably do that too!

[DCFan]

1 hour ago, fishnbowljoe said:

As I've said before, I believe that the boom is basically over.

When we can walk into any LS in the country and pick and choose from all bourbons the boom will be over. We will never see that or even come close. 

[mal00768]

People are still camping out overnight at liquor stores for Willet and whatever random Weller variation.. Boom is far from over.

[Supercharger]

I still read about people talking about $300 Old Rip being a “no brainer” and $400 GTS being fair. We’re far from over. 

[GeeTen]

1 hour ago, mal00768 said:

People are still camping out overnight at liquor stores for Willet and whatever random Weller variation.. Boom is far from over.

Actually they were there at 11pm last night (if you're referring to the store that I think you are) and dying for the local Starbucks to open at 5:30am this morning.  "It was a cold and windy night."  

 

[smokinjoe]

28 minutes ago, Supercharger said:

I still read about people talking about $300 Old Rip being a “no brainer” and $400 GTS being fair. We’re far from over. 

GTS is arguably the best yearly whiskey release in the world.  If any other whisk(e)y can command that price and be argued as being a “fair” price, then GTS certainly can.  Doesn’t mean I or anyone else might/will/should pay it, but if any whiskey meets that standard, this one certainly does.  

[AndyD]

I’d have to agree with a few replies above. The boom is not done.  Weller FP hype is proof of that.  So incredibly silly for what people are willing to do for this stuff.

[mal00768]

15 minutes ago, GeeTen said:

Actually they were there at 11pm last night (if you're referring to the store that I think you are) and dying for the local Starbucks to open at 5:30am this morning.  "It was a cold and windy night."  

 

Yup, that’s the store. Yeesh, I thought it was crazy that they were asking $175 for 7 year old Willet bourbon and $90 for the Weller FP. To each their own I guess.. it’s their money.
 

On the plus side for me at least, there’s never any lines for the RR or 4R SB picks.

Edited December 16, 2019 by mal00768

[Bourbon Sabbath]

I've only been semi serious about whiskey the past few years so i don't a very long history with prices. My taste has changed as my pallette becomes more experienced and i will say i never dreamed I'd pay $60 for a 750 of Pikesville or Elijah Craig barrel proof but that's my limit. So my boom is over.  I'm just as happy sticking with the lower shelf staples like OGD BIB, Evan Williams BIB, and Rittenhouse BIB. Most everyone can strum a guitar,  shoot a decent game of eight ball, or handicap golf, but you'll never be great at it. And most whiskey drinkers will never have the alleged refined taste budsof a Fred Minnick or Chuck Cowery. So save the lower to mid shelf stuff for this ol coutry boy please. 

[The Black Tot]

As smokinjoe said it a while back there is a difference between the boom and the bubble. The boom is the general rising trend in US whiskey purchases (which appears poised to continue for a decade at least), and the bubble is the feverish flipping and store camp-outs and gouge pricing.

 

It's the burst of the bubble we're primarily interested in as the major change for us.

 

I'd say the bubble is burst when, to modify DCfan's point above, we may not have EVERYTHING on the shelf everywhere, but it shouldn't take more than a few big stores to find ETL, Booker's, Blanton's, OWA (and now Full Proof), ECBP, and even EC18.  That's probably about 2-3 years off, I'd say, with 5-6 for the OWA.

 

The store shelves are still shadows of their former selves (say it 5x fast...). Beam and Turkey seem to be propping everything up right now with their seemingly endless supply of KCSB and RRSB, but Beam's Booker's inventories are still under heavy fire and young. Four Roses punched above their weight class giving us single barrels all over the place for a while, but they got worn out and the age statements fell dramatically along with the price increases.

 

Now the much-maligned NDP companies from five years ago have nice 10yr cask strength MGP product - still too expensive, but the point is some nice whiskey of decent age is returning to the shelves.

 

I haven't checked this year but I know we were pretty close to matching peak production in the 70s last year, or the year before. I would bet given the continued manic expansions in KY this year that we're probably now filling more barrels per year of US whiskey than we have ever done in history.

 

Trends change, and fashion is fickle. The baby boom has unprecedented disposable income. The generations coming up below them do not, on average. 

 

We're about to see two computer processor die-shrinks year over year, which we haven't seen since the late 90s. Computing and everything with a computer brain (which is just about EVERYTHING electronic) is about to violently surge forward, and if you think the public has an addiction problem with smart phones, wait until you can get into virtual reality with 500 bucks or less of hardware, which is also about 2yrs away.

 

Rightly or wrongly, people might have other things to do in the upcoming years than run around to liquor stores - or even drink whiskey in the first place. It could very easily return to being roundly ignored by an upcoming generation for being "A grandpa drink". 

 

So much is changing in our world these days, and fast, that I'm surprised to see some of you use words like "never" and "always".

 

At the same time as the above, the only thing I know is that they're making a hell of a lot more bourbon than they used to. More than ever before. And Scotland is making more malt. And the Caribbean is making more rum, and Mexico is making more tequila.  These industries have one plan - people will drink more, more, MORE!!! But there are limits to how much people want to drink, or can drink. 

 

So yes, the bubble is going to burst, and hard. There will be too much to drink, and it will be a price war again, and the barrels will get older again. And who knows if people will care so much about limiteds once they're not so limited - humanity loves a scarce or limited edition thing, and once there are more of them, they're not so special anymore. The flipper class gets off on cornering the market on what is rare. But once there's enough supply that they can't choke the supply anymore, flipping becomes pointless, and they'll move on to the next rare thing*. One could reasonably expect to get ORVW10 in a big city like Chicago in 10 years, on a shelf.

 

And if not, it doesn't matter - by then there will be so many rack houses and so many honey barrels to choose from that with a little bit of effort and organization, we'll be able to pick our own Weller FP that suits our own individual tastes better than JVW can, anyway.

 

Guys - it's going to be very good.

 

But as with all things whiskey - there's still a few more years of waiting to be done.

 

*and virtual reality might turn the concept of having "rare things" totally on it's head. When you can copy and live in a virtual mansion in the same way you can copy a CD (and for the same price), materialism in the real world is set to lose a lot of its shine for young people.

[PaulO]

I thought "boom" is the sound the air makes rushing behind Fishnbowljoe's vehicle, as he breaks the sound barrier, on his way pt get more Weller SR.

[GeeTen]

5 minutes ago, PaulO said:

I thought "boom" is the sound the air makes rushing behind Fishnbowljoe's vehicle, as he breaks the sound barrier, on his way to get more Weller SR.

 

FIFY.   

 

[fishnbowljoe]

12 minutes ago, PaulO said:

I thought "boom" is the sound the air makes rushing behind Fishnbowljoe's vehicle, as he breaks the sound barrier, on his way pt get more Weller SR.

 

5 minutes ago, GeeTen said:

 

FIFY.   

 

Aw c'mon guys.....  VROOOOM! 

 

Biba! Joe

[lcpfratn]

I thought "boom" is the sound the air makes rushing behind Fishnbowljoe's vehicle, as he breaks the sound barrier, on his way pt get more Weller SR.

Now that’s funny! [emoji23]

[Richnimrod]

2 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

 

Aw c'mon guys.....  VROOOOM! 

 

Biba! Joe

So... Not a 'sonic boom'?   ... OK, then.    I was not sure which way this trend would settle.       VROOOOM is much more within the bounds of sanity.   

[mal00768]

Rumor has it that there is going to be a Weller single barrel release now. Lots and lots of Weller out there these days..

Edited December 16, 2019 by mal00768

[HoustonNit]

Rumor has it that there is going to be a Weller single barrel release now. Lots and lots of Weller out there these days..

Saz guys are marketing geniuses.

Demand forecasting not so much. Currently they can’t keep up with national demand for there base offering.

[clearmoon247]

1 hour ago, mal00768 said:

Rumor has it that there is going to be a Weller single barrel release now. Lots and lots of Weller out there these days..

Well, there's a TTB filing for it, so I would not quite call it a rumor.

[Vosgar]

4 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

Saz guys are marketing geniuses.

Demand forecasting not so much. Currently they can’t keep up with national demand for there base offering.

 

How much BT do you want? We've got boatloads of it for as low as $21.49

[HoustonNit]

How much BT do you want? We've got boatloads of it for as low as $21.49

Yeah but even BT sometimes and in certain markets get scarce. I don’t see beam getting low on stand Beam, BF with standard Jack etc. I was specifically referring to WSR which is very scarce in a lot of markets.