Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Vosgar]

5 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

Yeah but even BT sometimes and in certain markets get scarce. I don’t see beam getting low on stand Beam, BF with standard Jack etc. I was specifically referring to WSR which is very scarce in a lot of markets.

 

Sorry, I've never considered WSR part of their "base offering"

 

Your BT stiffy is raging again......

[Harry in WashDC]

On 12/15/2019 at 8:03 PM, GeeTen said:

Actually they were there at 11pm last night (if you're referring to the store that I think you are) and dying for the local Starbucks to open at 5:30am this morning.  "It was a cold and windy night."  

 

Um, were you sitting/standing toasty inside laughing at the taters?  OR, were you sitting toasty warm inside feeling sorry for those deluded humans waiting for overpriced stuff while they could be spending that same amount of money on a case of perfectly desirable mid-shelf?  I know the answer- this is a rhetorical question.  Good man, Frank. 

[HoustonNit]

Sorry, I've never considered WSR part of their "base offering"

 

Your BT stiffy is raging again......

 

Yeah it’s one of my many faults. Still not sure if they severely underestimated future demand for there products or there marketing geniuses.

 

Also I mean WSR is the base offering within the Weller line. It does seem crazy to add another product to this line when they can’t even keep the base one on the shelf. Although not from a business standpoint. If I’m an automotive company for example with demand out reaching my production line capacity and I know my customers will buy my premium offerings why wouldn’t use that limited capacity to focus on premium offerings?

[lcpfratn]

How much BT do you want? We've got boatloads of it for as low as $21.49

Yeah but even BT sometimes and in certain markets get scarce. I don’t see beam getting low on stand Beam, BF with standard Jack etc. I was specifically referring to WSR which is very scarce in a lot of markets.

Sorry, I've never considered WSR part of their "base offering"
 
Your BT stiffy is raging again......

I never thought I’d see it in my area since we used to swim in BT and WSR, but they both will periodically disappear from shelves for short periods of time these days. Knob Creek Single Barrel is even occasionally not available! Rowan’s Creek has also been out of stock at the distributor for several months. The boom is still raging!

[fosmith]

16 hours ago, mal00768 said:

Lots and lots of Weller out there these days..

Huh?  Even WSR is really hard to find out here in CA.  Antique has become a ghost.  W12 or FP?  Fuggedaboutit...

[JCwhammie]

14 minutes ago, fosmith said:

Huh?  Even WSR is really hard to find out here in CA.  Antique has become a ghost.  W12 or FP?  Fuggedaboutit...

My assumption is that he meant Weller has a lot of different labels these days.

WSR, W12, OWA, CYPB, FP, and now SiB. It's gotten ridiculous. At the same time I see folks on social media trying to collect the entire collection, so the people at BT are taking advantage of the market. 

[fosmith]

1 hour ago, JCwhammie said:

My assumption is that he meant Weller has a lot of different labels these days.

WSR, W12, OWA, CYPB, FP, and now SiB. It's gotten ridiculous. At the same time I see folks on social media trying to collect the entire collection, so the people at BT are taking advantage of the market. 

Oh yeah.  That makes more sense.  With these new labels, it seems like they are moving to reposition Weller as premium brand. 

[mal00768]

2 hours ago, fosmith said:

Oh yeah.  That makes more sense.  With these new labels, it seems like they are moving to reposition Weller as premium brand. 

Exactly. There doesn’t seem to be enough to keep SR readily available but plenty to continue fragmenting the label.

[Supercharger]

As long as ORVW and GTS are “good finds” at $350, it’s not over. 

[The Black Tot]

52 minutes ago, Supercharger said:

As long as ORVW and GTS are “good finds” at $350, it’s not over. 

 

Lol.

 

"Good entertainment" for us, at least.

 

SOMEONE has to put these liquor store owners' kids through college.

 

Or keep the local strip club lights on. Either or...

[tanstaafl2]

On 12/27/2019 at 6:16 PM, The Black Tot said:

Lol.

 

"Good entertainment" for us, at least.

 

SOMEONE has to put these liquor store owners' kids through college.

 

Or keep the local strip club lights on. Either or...

Probably more the later. Of course all those young ladies are just trying to work their way through school so I guess the result is the same...

[The Black Tot]

1 hour ago, tanstaafl2 said:

Probably more the later. Of course all those young ladies are just trying to work their way through school so I guess the result is the same...

 

Comforting thoughts, all

[AndyD]

On 12/27/2019 at 5:16 PM, The Black Tot said:

Lol.

 

"Good entertainment" for us, at least.

 

SOMEONE has to put these liquor store owners' kids through college.

 

Or keep the local strip club lights on. Either or...

a good portion of members in this site would pay 350$ for a GTS.  So it’s not just the newbs that are doing this.

 

personally I think all the pappy and btac crap should get a 400% hike across the board.  

[The Black Tot]

16 minutes ago, AndyD said:

a good portion of members in this site would pay 350$ for a GTS.  So it’s not just the newbs that are doing this.

 

Still entertaining, for another many of us who would never.

 

Most people who would spend $350 on a GTS wouldn't approve of what I (over)spend my money on, either. That's OK.

 

It may not just be the newbies that are doing it...

 

...but it IS a noob move...

Edited December 30, 2019 by The Black Tot

[The Black Tot]

18 minutes ago, AndyD said:

personally I think all the pappy and btac crap should get a 400% hike across the board.  

Also, 

A ) It isn't crap.

B ) If you think they should be 400% of MSRP, you're in luck - because that's exactly the price you can buy everything on secondary - all day, every day. How many will you buy now that you know it is available to you at your appropriate price point?

[EarthQuake]

400% is a bit extreme, but BT should raise the price 20% or so every year until people stop showing up by the hundreds at local shops across the country just to have a chance to buy this stuff.

 

LE bourbon is insane at the moment. At least with Scotch you simply pay more for the fancier, longer aged stuff. Distilleries should charge more until they hit the consumer's pain point. Otherwise the only people who benefit are the flippers (and the 1/1000 lucky fellows who find it at retail). It's a stupid business model.

Edited December 30, 2019 by EarthQuake

[The Black Tot]

Buncha masochists on this forum tonight!  

[EarthQuake]

39 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

Buncha masochists on this forum tonight!  

Eh, merely disinterested at this point. BTAC and Pappy are already a bit expensive for what they are at retail, plus the opportunity cost of actually finding a bottle, it just really isn't worth the trouble. As far as I'm concerned, they might as well charge what the market will bear and milk the taters and FOMO crowd directly. If there's going to be big money changing hands for these bottles I would prefer it go to the distillery rather than some creepy dude who follows the delivery truck to each store.

Edited December 30, 2019 by EarthQuake

[BottledInBond]

11 hours ago, EarthQuake said:

400% is a bit extreme, but BT should raise the price 20% or so every year until people stop showing up by the hundreds at local shops across the country just to have a chance to buy this stuff.

 

LE bourbon is insane at the moment. At least with Scotch you simply pay more for the fancier, longer aged stuff. Distilleries should charge more until they hit the consumer's pain point. Otherwise the only people who benefit are the flippers (and the 1/1000 lucky fellows who find it at retail). It's a stupid business model.

For now, the distilleries and distributors have figured out that this pricing/hype/scarcity model helps them drive sales of their entire portfolios of products. They have huge demand from consumers asking their stores about these bottles constantly, then they tell the store owners they need to support everything they sell across the board if they want some LEs to keep some of their good (or just loud) customers happy. So they leverage a few underpriced but overhyped bottles into tons of cases of all kinds of other crap sold. If they increased the prices of BTAC/Pappy etc. 400% or something like that it may help get the supply/demand equation to equilibrium but they would lose all that leverage they currently enjoy with all the other products.  For every bottle of LE a store gets during the year how many cases of Fireball or crap vodka or some random wine that the distributor needs to move does that store take? Quite a few, and the profits on all that junk are higher than if they just jacked up the price on that one bottle of LE, so they keep rolling with this model. 
 

What’s going to change it? I hate to encourage more government intervention, but it would be nice if various government entities would enforce laws that are supposed to stop these types of sales practices by the distributors. While on this rant it would be nice if the TTB actual did a consistent and thorough job with label approvals but I digress.

 

I don’t know what the answer is. Some producers have gone the route of trying to charge closer to gouge / secondary type prices and we all seem to bash them for it (Willett, Michter’s, WhistlePig, Kentucky Owl, etc.) so it seems like a little bit of damned if the do damned if they don’t. I do know that I’m not paying $1k for Michter’s 20 this year, nor am I buying any $500 range WhistlePig products. With the relationships I have and a little initiative I do know that I can still get some LEs at or close to MSRP still, so I guess I’ll still consider this the lesser of evils for now as long as that is the case. The whole situation is still very ugly though indeed. 
 

What shelf was I supposed to grab that bourbon zen from? 

[Bbstout]

The situation will remain ugly with the 3 Tier system that refuses to change. The only good news is with the increased capacity some of the allocated bourbon will be more available although at higher prices.

[The Black Tot]

1 hour ago, BottledInBond said:

Some producers have gone the route of trying to charge closer to gouge / secondary type prices and we all seem to bash them for it (Willett, Michter’s, WhistlePig, Kentucky Owl, etc.) so it seems like a little bit of damned if the do damned if they don’t. I do know that I’m not paying $1k for Michter’s 20 this year, nor am I buying any $500 range WhistlePig products.

 

Excellent point. Be careful what you wish for.

[The Black Tot]

1 hour ago, BottledInBond said:

What shelf was I supposed to grab that bourbon zen from? 

 

You must find the shelf within.

[mal00768]

4 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

 

You must find the shelf within.

Remove the FOMO you must.

Edited December 30, 2019 by mal00768

[Richnimrod]

15 hours ago, mal00768 said:

Remove the FOMO you must.

Wisdom from Yoda... ignore it at your peril folx!

[KyleCBreese]

I see people on Instagram buying BT OFC 1994 for $2,600 and people commenting how good of a score it is. I think business is still booming.