Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[JCwhammie]

32 minutes ago, KyleCBreese said:

I see people on Instagram buying BT OFC 1994 for $2,600 and people commenting how good of a score it is. I think business is still booming. 

That's crazy, but at the same time it doesn't really surprise me. It makes me curious what the percentage of people saying it's a good score have actually tried a pour. I assume it's very low, but I may be dead wrong. 

[The Black Tot]

1 hour ago, KyleCBreese said:

I see people on Instagram buying BT OFC 1994 for $2,600 and people commenting how good of a score it is. I think business is still booming. 

 

These are precisely the people who will switch to spending their money on almost ANYTHING else as soon as it takes the place of bourbon for being cool this year.

 

Still, all of this fever builds the rack houses and fills barrels. It's an absolute win for us in the long run.

[DEH1212]

Just got an email on Liquor Barns limited release for this week!  Regular Buffalo Trace now being tatered to limited along with Eagle Rare.  

 

Yeah the boom is still yet to peak..

 

 

[smokinjoe]

On 12/31/2019 at 4:30 PM, The Black Tot said:

 

These are precisely the people who will switch to spending their money on almost ANYTHING else as soon as it takes the place of bourbon for being cool this year.

 

This explains rums bump...  

[The Black Tot]

2 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

This explains rums bump...  

 

You, sir, are on fire tonight.

[HoustonNit]

400% is a bit extreme, but BT should raise the price 20% or so every year until people stop showing up by the hundreds at local shops across the country just to have a chance to buy this stuff.
 
LE bourbon is insane at the moment. At least with Scotch you simply pay more for the fancier, longer aged stuff. Distilleries should charge more until they hit the consumer's pain point. Otherwise the only people who benefit are the flippers (and the 1/1000 lucky fellows who find it at retail). It's a stupid business model.

Personal taste preferences aside there’s much more of a cost perspective to producing a premium Scotch over a premium bourbon. If Sazerac was going to start charging what Scotch does for there high end bottles people would make this realization. There’s also still a much bigger market for premium Scotch over premium bourbon.

Additionally Saz keeps the price low on LEs as a thank you to loyal stores and other customers who spent the whole year buying cases of Fireball and other crap.

[The Black Tot]

25 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

Personal taste preferences aside there’s much more of a cost perspective to producing a premium Scotch over a premium bourbon.

 

 

I think we went WAY beyond the cost perspective in whiskey pricing, and whisky pricing, 7 years ago.

 

If anything Scotch has gotten cheaper to produce with the advent of 6-row barley and more bourbon casks pumping out of Kentucky than they know what to do with these days.

 

In Scotch, above 200GBP (and arguably way below when it comes to most bottles), you really are more paying for nostalgia or showoff factor. The diminishing returns curve goes almost to flat after that in terms of pure flavor experience.

 

Bourbon pricing following the scotch model is nothing to wish for. You'll end up with the equivalent of your cousin in law Ned, who wants to impress you with that bottle of Johnny Walker Blue he bought at the duty free that he's been keeping on the mantle for the last 20 years. He knows is the best because it was expensive. Lots of scotches at $250 and above end up like that. PVW is already starting down the road of occupying cousin Ned's shelf. Higher MSRP would encourage more purchasing by people who proverbially know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Edited January 3, 2020 by The Black Tot

[HoustonNit]

 
I think we went WAY beyond the cost perspective in whiskey pricing, and whisky pricing, 7 years ago.
 
If anything Scotch has gotten cheaper to produce with the advent of 6-row barley and more bourbon casks pumping out of Kentucky than they know what to do with these days.
 
In Scotch, above 200GBP (and arguably way below when it comes to most bottles), you really are more paying for nostalgia or showoff factor. The diminishing returns curve goes almost to flat after that in terms of pure flavor experience.
 
Bourbon pricing following the scotch model is nothing to wish for. You'll end up with the equivalent of your cousin in law Ned, who wants to impress you with that bottle of Johnny Walker Blue he bought at the duty free that he's been keeping on the mantle for the last 20 years. He knows is the best because it was expensive. Lots of scotches at $250 and above end up like that. PVW is already starting down the road of occupying cousin Ned's shelf. Higher MSRP would encourage more purchasing by people who proverbially know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Ha awesome post, yes Scotch has gotten cheaper to produce in some ways but still not as cheap as bourbon. Barley is still much more expensive than corn. Premiums, the ones priced above LEs are dependent on sherry barrels. Who the heck do you know that drinks Sherry? I think at this point the Spanish fortified wine business is only around to support barrel production for the Scotch industry.

[The Black Tot]

1 minute ago, HoustonNit said:

Ha awesome post, yes Scotch has gotten cheaper to produce in some ways but still not as cheap as bourbon. Barley is still much more expensive than corn. Premiums, the ones priced above LEs are dependent on sherry barrels. Who the heck do you know that drinks Sherry? I think at this point the Spanish fortified wine business is only around to support barrel production for the Scotch industry.

 

 

^ All true. And yes, gone are most of the grannies who drank up the world's sherry output. I had heard that a lot of it gets dumped now, and is made purely to create casks for malt maturation.

 

They should all switch to making Pedro Ximinez sherry. I DO at least use that in cocktails, and it's my favorite finishing cask type, apart from Demerara rum, which happens too rarely to mention.

[HoustonNit]

 
^ All true. And yes, gone are most of the grannies who drank up the world's sherry output. I had heard that a lot of it gets dumped now, and is made purely to create casks for malt maturation.
 
They should all switch to making Pedro Ximinez sherry. I DO at least use that in cocktails, and it's my favorite finishing cask type, apart from Demerara rum, which happens too rarely to mention.

I’m happy to drink any well made barrel aged spirit at a good price. That being said what’s at a good price these days. Do I need to drink Bulgarian plum brandy? Bourbon at least the allocated, LE side has jumped the shark. Scotch is overpriced, rum has now become overpriced. What’s left?

[The Black Tot]

1 minute ago, HoustonNit said:

I’m happy to drink any well made barrel aged spirit at a good price. That being said what’s at a good price these days. Do I need to drink Bulgarian plum brandy? Bourbon at least the allocated, LE side has jumped the shark. Scotch is overpriced, rum has now become overpriced. What’s left?

 

 

You don't really feel this desperation. I see you drinking great value pours regularly. You know exactly what to do and you're doing it. But if you want additional diversification ideas:

 

-put together a repertoire of at least 5 great cocktails, and put your spin on them to take them to the next level and make 'em yours. Then make them for as many of your friends and family as you can.

-take some time off of bourbon, get on youtube and learn to cook something exotic (I've already seen many grill pics in your posts) that you don't yet know how to do.

-try some well-rated $15 wines for fun. Pair 'em with dinners.

 

It's all flavor, man.

 

Nobody needs to drink Bulgarian plum brandy. Although Smokinjoe will probably tell you it's better than rum.

 

 

[flahute]

1 hour ago, The Black Tot said:

Nobody needs to drink Bulgarian plum brandy. Although Smokinjoe will probably tell you it's better than rum.

Waiting for it in 3.....2......1.......

[beasled]

3 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

 

They should all switch to making Pedro Ximinez sherry. I DO at least use that in cocktails, and it's my favorite finishing cask type, apart from Demerara rum, which happens too rarely to mention.

 

I'm sorry I can't resist as you said Demerara and 'too rarely'... 

[Bbstout]

LOL

[Harry in WashDC]

10 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

 

Y

 

Nobody needs to drink Bulgarian plum brandy.

 

Lemme say this about that - In Fall of 1990, I spent a month in Sophia, Bulgaria, for work.  About the only food available consisted of rancid olive oil, furry meat, and some of the best tomato, cucumber, small lettuce, Bulgarian feta salads ANYWHERE.  We preferred the plum brandy (AKA slivovitz) to Bulgarian red wine when eating the meat.  The salads we ate with beers.  The red wines looked good in the glass.

[Marekv8]

14 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

 

Nobody needs to drink Bulgarian plum brandy.

 

 

 

My Bulgarian taxi driver in NY greets me with homemade plum brandy (made by his grandfather) and sardines when he collects me from Laguardia-- it's great in the right context and in the company of comrades.

[JCwhammie]

4 hours ago, Bbstout said:

LOL

So according to this ass hat Will Price, any bourbon with wheat is 'poor man's pappy.' I hate the internet, except for all you SBers. 

[HoustonNit]

LOL

I actually started reading this crap, quote from the article.

“The barrel proof version of Heaven Hill Distillery’s affordable, well-loved Larceny bourbon is made with the same mashbill as its predecessor and therefore falls in the category bourbon drinkers call “wheaters.” Where most bourbon recipes are comprised of corn, rye and malted barley, a select few substitute wheat for barley. The category has experienced a small whiskey nerd renaissance as it’s rode the coattails of Pappy and Weller.”

Guy can’t even get the mashbill right.

[parksmart]

Taters gonna tate!!!

[EarthQuake]

On 1/2/2020 at 11:23 PM, The Black Tot said:

 

I think we went WAY beyond the cost perspective in whiskey pricing, and whisky pricing, 7 years ago.

 

If anything Scotch has gotten cheaper to produce with the advent of 6-row barley and more bourbon casks pumping out of Kentucky than they know what to do with these days.

 

In Scotch, above 200GBP (and arguably way below when it comes to most bottles), you really are more paying for nostalgia or showoff factor. The diminishing returns curve goes almost to flat after that in terms of pure flavor experience.

 

Bourbon pricing following the scotch model is nothing to wish for. You'll end up with the equivalent of your cousin in law Ned, who wants to impress you with that bottle of Johnny Walker Blue he bought at the duty free that he's been keeping on the mantle for the last 20 years. He knows is the best because it was expensive. Lots of scotches at $250 and above end up like that. PVW is already starting down the road of occupying cousin Ned's shelf. Higher MSRP would encourage more purchasing by people who proverbially know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

I would argue that cousin Ned is a well established customer in the bourbon market at this point, that PVW etc is no different than the high priced, nostalgic scotch bottles (diminishing returns even if you're lucky enough to pay retail for it), and that we're at the point where many (most?) of the high priced bottles (either retail or markup / secondary) are being purchased by people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Certainly, there are well informed enthusiasts on sites like this, and plenty of the same in the scotch field, but the rest of the whiskey buying populace is closer to cousin Ned than the extremely well informed users that hang out here.

 

The bourbon industry continually lies to itself about what the price should be for certain products. So customers clear shelves, and sell the bottles back to each other. There is very little of this in the scotch market, because they've got supply and demand figured out to a greater extent. Distilleries attempt to hold prices close to historic levels to please their well established customers (which make up a relatively small fraction of the growing market), so the retail price never sees a sane, fair market correction, and we end up with the absurd difference between MSRP and actual demand for some of these bottles, which in turn feeds the secondary. The cost of grains, production, and aging of bourbon vs scotch is so far removed from what many are willing to pay for these bottles that it's barely worth mentioning.

 

I'll say it again, even though I know many will disagree. Distilleries should raise prices until consumers stop hoarding, following delivery trucks around, and creating illegal black market groups just to resell the extremely high demand products. Whistlepig and a few others have done this, and while we can easily mock them for it, they've essentially cut these products out of the secondary market tomfoolery entirely. Will bourbon nerds complain? Of course, but then they'll move on to all of the great, well supplied whiskey that is available every day on every shelf in every store in the country. The unicorn bottles, which are not all that special to begin with, will become even more of a status symbol for the wealthy and the show offs than they are now. But those of us who enjoy bourbon because of how it tastes, not which dead guy's name is on the bottle, will move on and continue to live a full and meaningful life. Maybe some of the status seekers, flippers, and other miscreants will get turned off by the high pricing and eventually leave the market - and we'll be better off for it. That's wishful thinking I know, but a boy can dream.

 

All that said, I do want to call attention to @BottledInBond's excellent response to my post a bit further up the thread, and all the reasons he gives for why the major bourbon players are unlikely to change their pricing models. The hype is real and it is a very effective marketing tool for their lower tier products (it still baffles me that WSR is considered anything but a bottom shelf mixer). So it's all a bit moot in any case.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2020 by EarthQuake

[KyleCBreese]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/mgp-ingredients-stock-is-plunging-on-disappointing-whiskey-sales-numbers-51579279726

 

MGP reports weak sales numbers. Seems like the aged barrels are too expensive and the young stuff is sitting on store shelves everywhere.

[Clueby]

200 people lined up for a chance at a store pick Blanton's @ $80.  Sadly, I'm one of them. Boom ain't over.

[MJWP]

21 minutes ago, Clueby said:

200 people lined up for a chance at a store pick Blanton's @ $80.  Sadly, I'm one of them. Boom ain't over.

For Blantons ? That is insane indeed. 

[jwperry]

200 people lined up for a chance at a store pick Blanton's @ $80.  Sadly, I'm one of them. Boom ain't over.

There were over 400 for the Bern's Steakhouse release last year.

A store pick Blanton's will sell out in 2 days @$150 on the I-4 corridor.

[Clueby]

1 hour ago, MJWP said:

For Blantons ? That is insane indeed. 

Pretty much the only way to get it here is by lottery.