Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[smokinjoe]

16 minutes ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

The Boom is Dead!  No way it can continue. First off, we have multiple states completely shutting down. Liquor Stores closed. Distributors are now idled in many areas. Cases of bourbon are stacking up everywhere.  Unemployment is ramping up at an insane level. Many are expecting it to top out somewhere between 30-50%.  When/if these people get there jobs back they will be way behind on their bills and all that “fun money” they used to buy expensive bourbon with simply won’t be there. Couple all that with the fact that ALL the majors have greatly increased production and we now have a glut. Plus this is a world wide epidemic. Goodbye Asian demand as well. It’s over. For that matter, I’m wondering if it’s not time to crack open my good bottles. Imagine dying from this virus and leaving behind amazing bourbon that I never tasted. Every thing is going to be different going forward.  

Be calm. And yes, don’t wonder any more if you should open the good bottles.  It doesn’t take something like this to get you there.  Open just one, and enjoy it while counting your blessings and have faith and confidence we’ll all get through this.  We will get through this.  

[CUfan99]

1 hour ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

The Boom is Dead!  No way it can continue. First off, we have multiple states completely shutting down. Liquor Stores closed. Distributors are now idled in many areas. Cases of bourbon are stacking up everywhere.  Unemployment is ramping up at an insane level. Many are expecting it to top out somewhere between 30-50%.  When/if these people get there jobs back they will be way behind on their bills and all that “fun money” they used to buy expensive bourbon with simply won’t be there. Couple all that with the fact that ALL the majors have greatly increased production and we now have a glut. Plus this is a world wide epidemic. Goodbye Asian demand as well. It’s over. For that matter, I’m wondering if it’s not time to crack open my good bottles. Imagine dying from this virus and leaving behind amazing bourbon that I never tasted. Every thing is going to be different going forward.  

Just trying to lighten the mood Limegold. 

[BottledInBond]

Can the boom be over if NBC is doing a segment about Jefferson’s on their national broadcast this morning? 

[Richnimrod]

33 minutes ago, BottledInBond said:

Can the boom be over if NBC is doing a segment about Jefferson’s on their national broadcast this morning? 

 

Oh, Jeeeez!   Gotta wonder, I guess.....

[Vosgar]

1 hour ago, BottledInBond said:

Can the boom be over if NBC is doing a segment about Jefferson’s on their national broadcast this morning? 

 

Just curious, what did you think of the segment? 

[FasterHorses]

16 hours ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

The Boom is Dead!  No way it can continue. First off, we have multiple states completely shutting down. Liquor Stores closed. Distributors are now idled in many areas. Cases of bourbon are stacking up everywhere.  Unemployment is ramping up at an insane level. Many are expecting it to top out somewhere between 30-50%.  When/if these people get there jobs back they will be way behind on their bills and all that “fun money” they used to buy expensive bourbon with simply won’t be there. Couple all that with the fact that ALL the majors have greatly increased production and we now have a glut. Plus this is a world wide epidemic. Goodbye Asian demand as well. It’s over. For that matter, I’m wondering if it’s not time to crack open my good bottles. Imagine dying from this virus and leaving behind amazing bourbon that I never tasted. Every thing is going to be different going forward.  

I tend to agree with this. However i dont think there has been much rational thought  during the boom on the side of the consumer... as far as boundaries on what they/we will pay.  Unfortunately I think there will be a contingent of people that will be more than willing (and able) to keep the insanity going.

Im usually wrong though so maybe I’ll get to buy a Saz18 off the shelf this fall.

[FacePlant]

17 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

Be calm. And yes, don’t wonder any more if you should open the good bottles.  It doesn’t take something like this to get you there.  Open just one, and enjoy it while counting your blessings and have faith and confidence we’ll all get through this.  We will get through this.  

 

What do you mean Joe? We can't be calm in the midst of panic. Can we?

[BottledInBond]

2 hours ago, Vosgar said:

Just curious, what did you think of the segment? 

Truth be told, I didn’t really pay attention to it at all. Being that I’m not a Jefferson’s fan, when I noticed it on the TV I just kept going about my business but did snap that picture. Did I miss out on something actually interesting? I saw Trey was being interviewed and it seemed like they were mainly talking about the Ocean stuff 

[Bob_Loblaw]

On 3/21/2020 at 5:33 PM, smokinjoe said:

Or, boom...paused?  

Anything is possible, but if paused it will be a long one.  Can expound as needed, but my brief thoughts are that in the aftermath of the coronavirus:

 

1 - There will be some type of global recession and international demand for American whiskey will plummet;

2 - The expansion projects from the legacies are getting close to market age so there will be much more availability;

3 - Domestic demand will also substantially decrease.  Bourbon no longer has an inexpensive entry point.   There will be less dollars to go around and many of the younger drinkers will opt for things in the $19.99 price range.  (yes, I know there are several great inexpensive bourbons, but if you put a strict $20 cap they are really few and far between, plus we need variety)

4 - Crafts will take the brunt of the domestic decline due to their high price point at a time when regular BT and WSR start to be much more available.  Right now not having any tourism will hurt them more as well.  Total guess here, but I'd imagine a large % of people buying the $50 36 month whiskey are visitors capturing a memory.   I think some of the older crafts like New Riff & Wilderness Trail will be fine. Peerless is one who may have to reduce prices to make it.  The juice is actually very good for the age, but I am not supporting that price point!

5 - More On Premise fire sales:  Jack Rose was not alone.  Two places I know of in Chicago area sold everything.  One was priced pretty high.  $300 Stagg, $500 WLW $750 PVW.  The other was lower $200 Stagg, had to call on the Big Boys.  I called about OF 15 year ($145) and Blaum 12 ($100) both gone.  In any case, I can see this happening more as bars try to recoup $$ during this closure. Obviously this will have quite an effect on the secondary market.

6 - Retail Prices may not drop, but I think the upward price trend will stop and depending on how much 1-4 above goes on could decrease.  

 

Basically I am doing a full 180 and think The Black Tot's predictions are now spot on.  A glut is indeed on the horizon and the situation now exists where I can actually see price reductions. 

[smokinjoe]

32 minutes ago, Bob_Loblaw said:

Anything is possible, but if paused it will be a long one.  Can expound as needed, but my brief thoughts are that in the aftermath of the coronavirus:

 

1 - There will be some type of global recession and international demand for American whiskey will plummet;

2 - The expansion projects from the legacies are getting close to market age so there will be much more availability;

3 - Domestic demand will also substantially decrease.  Bourbon no longer has an inexpensive entry point.   There will be less dollars to go around and many of the younger drinkers will opt for things in the $19.99 price range.  (yes, I know there are several great inexpensive bourbons, but if you put a strict $20 cap they are really few and far between, plus we need variety)

4 - Crafts will take the brunt of the domestic decline due to their high price point at a time when regular BT and WSR start to be much more available.  Right now not having any tourism will hurt them more as well.  Total guess here, but I'd imagine a large % of people buying the $50 36 month whiskey are visitors capturing a memory.   I think some of the older crafts like New Riff & Wilderness Trail will be fine. Peerless is one who may have to reduce prices to make it.  The juice is actually very good for the age, but I am not supporting that price point!

5 - More On Premise fire sales:  Jack Rose was not alone.  Two places I know of in Chicago area sold everything.  One was priced pretty high.  $300 Stagg, $500 WLW $750 PVW.  The other was lower $200 Stagg, had to call on the Big Boys.  I called about OF 15 year ($145) and Blaum 12 ($100) both gone.  In any case, I can see this happening more as bars try to recoup $$ during this closure. Obviously this will have quite an effect on the secondary market.

6 - Retail Prices may not drop, but I think the upward price trend will stop and depending on how much 1-4 above goes on could decrease.  

 

Basically I am doing a full 180 and think The Black Tot's predictions are now spot on.  A glut is indeed on the horizon and the situation now exists where I can actually see price reductions. 

All possibilities.  But, the predictions of the boom ending have to be put in the proper context of how this incredible demand and growth in bourbon might end.  That is, an unforeseen potential global catastrophe.  My friend TBT is good, but I don’t recall global pandemic being a primary leader causing the death of the boom .  I’m sure a meteorite striking Kentucky might achieve the same end.  Personally, I have global pandemic 7th, meteorite 6th, and dogs and cats sleeping together a surprising #3!  
 

Interestingly, we Americans are getting used to these types of debacles in the last couple of decades, and bourbon growth has just kept chugging along after, maybe, a blip.  9/11?  Did it.  Financial collapse in 2008?  That, too.  Fred Minnick?  Jury still out.  Though, I’m guessing a cravat may be a dandy substitute for a wickedly stylistic face mask.  .  Don’t forget.  The bourbon boom was built on solid principles of quality and value.  The overall spirits market may take a hit, but bourbon is positioned to ride it out.  Just like us.  

[BottledInBond]

1 hour ago, smokinjoe said:

All possibilities.  But, the predictions of the boom ending have to be put in the proper context of how this incredible demand and growth in bourbon might end.  That is, an unforeseen potential global catastrophe.  My friend TBT is good, but I don’t recall global pandemic being a primary leader causing the death of the boom .  I’m sure a meteorite striking Kentucky might achieve the same end.  Personally, I have global pandemic 7th, meteorite 6th, and dogs and cats sleeping together a surprising #3!  
 

Interestingly, we Americans are getting used to these types of debacles in the last couple of decades, and bourbon growth has just kept chugging along after, maybe, a blip.  9/11?  Did it.  Financial collapse in 2008?  That, too.  Fred Minnick?  Jury still out.  Though, I’m guessing a cravat may be a dandy substitute for a wickedly stylistic face mask.  .  Don’t forget.  The bourbon boom was built on solid principles of quality and value.  The overall spirits market may take a hit, but bourbon is positioned to ride it out.  Just like us.  

“The bourbon Boom was built on solid principles of quality and value”

 

this is where @Bob_Loblaw has a good point related to the potential vulnerability of the craft crowd. They generally do not currently offer quality or value. Their lack of gift shop sales is going to hurt for a while, regardless of the bigger picture (and potentially longer term) issues

[FasterHorses]

If and whenthe dust settles .. It will be hard for me to not remember Heavem Hill taking away all the 7 year bourbon off the shelf in a single week  and raising the price x3.  Not to mention the HmcK shenanigans.  
Im not a WT guy but they seem to be the ones who have been the least opportunists thru the boom. 

[smokinjoe]

24 minutes ago, BottledInBond said:

“The bourbon Boom was built on solid principles of quality and value”

 

this is where @Bob_Loblaw has a good point related to the potential vulnerability of the craft crowd. They generally do not currently offer quality or value. Their lack of gift shop sales is going to hurt for a while, regardless of the bigger picture (and potentially longer term) issues

Agree with you guys.  But honestly, I don’t count the crafts as part of the boom at all.  They have been lampreys on the great white legacy bourbon boom shark. That said, there are a few I hope gut it through.  

[B.B. Babington]

On 3/22/2020 at 7:39 PM, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

..., I’m wondering if it’s not time to crack open my good bottles.....  

what?  I don't understand, they're still sealed?  It does take a while to work oneself to the back of the cabinet.  I find what helps is a glencairn in each hand.

[PhantomLamb]

23 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

Can the boom be over if NBC is doing a segment about Jefferson’s on their national broadcast this morning? 

Her facial expression says it all...

[ThirstyinOhio]

I think it will all depend on the economy at this point.  If we can get back to a bit of resemblance of normality in 6 weeks, I think the boom will continue on.  Sure, it'll take a bit for the surplus to be bought up but I'd be it would be gone in 30 days.  A lot of people were doing really well financially up to this point and that might save the economy, had this hit back when we had 7 and 8% unemployment then it would be completely different.  However, if this drags out for 12-16 weeks then this whole country is going to look a LOT different.  

[Jazz June]

One thought to add; if distilleries are shuttering for a while, will there be a shortage in 4-12 years of various products? Much like there were shortages created by drops in production during the financial crisis. At this point, I don't think anyone has been or will be closed for a significant amount of time, but if this drags on, who knows. They were already going full steam and failing to meet demand.

[fishnbowljoe]

I believe most distilleries are still open. They are just closed to the public. I’m pretty sure they’re still working. With liquor stores being deemed a necessary business, they’re gonna need product to sell. I know for a fact the trucking industry is running full steam ahead. Products, necessary or not have to be delivered. 
 

Biba! Joe

[Jazz June]

52 minutes ago, fishnbowljoe said:

I believe most distilleries are still open. They are just closed to the public. I’m pretty sure they’re still working. With liquor stores being deemed a necessary business, they’re gonna need product to sell. I know for a fact the trucking industry is running full steam ahead. Products, necessary or not have to be delivered. 
 

Biba! Joe

Four Roses is shut down until at least 4/6. See: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/life/food/spirits/bourbon/2020/03/20/four-roses-distillery-temporarily-shuts-down-coronavirus/2883290001/

 

Edited to add: I think you are broadly correct that most are still going, but this could easily change, especially given the state by state rules being put in place. Our offices in various states are being subjected to different rules, for example.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Jazz June
additional comment

[Vosgar]

Did anyone happen to notice that yesterday was the 5th anniversary of this thread?

[kcgumbohead]

On 3/23/2020 at 2:33 PM, BottledInBond said:

Truth be told, I didn’t really pay attention to it at all. Being that I’m not a Jefferson’s fan, when I noticed it on the TV I just kept going about my business but did snap that picture. Did I miss out on something actually interesting? I saw Trey was being interviewed and it seemed like they were mainly talking about the Ocean stuff 

The expression on that woman's face looks like she is about to taste ocean water.

[smokinjoe]

34 minutes ago, kcgumbohead said:

The expression on that woman's face looks like she is about to taste ocean water.

That’s more likely her thinking: “Damn Roker...those are the fugliest glasses I’ve ever seen.”  

[RWBadley]

Years ago my small company had a product that was due to go on the Today show. our spot was in the can, but our segment kept getting bumped. For weeks. Every week something would happen to bump us. 7 weeks after our original air date we finally got on.

 

That whiskey spot may have been recorded weeks ago, it's hard to say...

 

As for the boom. It would seem priorities are about to change pretty quick.

 

Stay healthy everybody. Wash your hands and pretend everybody else but immediate family is a zombie you want to stay away from.    Harsh, but this sh*ts about to get real

 

Open up the good stuff if you have it and at least see what the fuss is about. 

 

Cheers,

 

RW

[Harry in WashDC]

3 hours ago, Jazz June said:

One thought to add; if distilleries are shuttering for a while, will there be a shortage in 4-12 years of various products? Much like there were shortages created by drops in production during the financial crisis. At this point, I don't think anyone has been or will be closed for a significant amount of time, but if this drags on, who knows. They were already going full steam and failing to meet demand.

I've seen several stories about the distillers' shift to making hand sanitizer (including an email from Davin deK a few hours ago about Canadian distillers).  My impression is - many of them already used some of the undrinkable/even poisonous heads and tails for "cleaning" purposes around the facility rather than dumping some/all (? I forget what the book on "Distilling" said) into the next run.

 

IF THIS IS TRUE AND CORRECT, I expect the reduction in new make coming off the still and going into barrels is being reduced only marginally - that is, by the amount of salvageable heads and tails that are not being rerun but are now going into cleaning/sanitizing products..

 

Did I get ANY of that right?

Edited March 24, 2020 by Harry in WashDC
added a phrase to clarify my obscure point

[CUfan99]

New life is close to being breathed into the bourbon boom with Congress close to passing a $2 TRILLION stimulus bill. Whiskey.....er.....stimulus checks issued to most Americans in April. We’ll see.