Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Harry in WashDC]

On 2/22/2017 at 8:40 AM, Cundiff5535 said:

I'll give my thoughts here... I can say I do not think the "bubble" is anywhere near blowing... nearly every craft beer person I know is slowly moving to Bourbon (and still in love with beer).  Combine that with all the craft breweries and the fact that everyone is rushing stuff out... the demand will be sky high. Age statements are long gone and most places are not able to even source those juice any longer. 

 

Because of that, demand will stay sky high, and price will continue to rise.

 

i will not even get into how much gets shipped over seas...

 

Wanted to mention the Owl comment up top... $300 looks smart as they all are now selling for $700-$1k depending on batch number... I love the stuff but it's not worth $1k imo

I dunno whether this quote is spot on or not, and I did no research before posting this response- I just post crap based on feelings.  I moved from beer to bourbon almost exclusively when beers started putting international bitterness bull poop on the labels.  Virtually all my beer buying now is Fullers ESB or US of A session beers with not too many hops.  When my favorite German beers (Nurnburg area) stopped being available and my Belgians got lost in the fruit flavored shuffle, I shrugged and took the easy way out - bourbon. 

 

It looks to me, based on the most recent Distilled Spirits Council report I quoted a couple days ago, like basic offering production has caught up with demand - viz., basic BT is usually available.  The LEs being offered also look to me like they are designed to attract the big spenders rather than the enthusiasts.  That's fine with me - I'll just keep killing myself with bottom and middle shelfers (and my multi-year's worth of bunkered stuff) and seasonal releases like the CEHTs and save my money for something else - I don't know what, yet, but SOMEthing else.  A Jaguar?  A Tesla?  Cuban cigars?

 

It doesn't have to be spirits that the hot money runs to next.

[garbanzobean]

11 hours ago, Whiskey Dick said:

doubt it. I think the whole trend is being driven by profiteers and the "look what I have!" attitudes of hipsters of, sadly, my generation and younger

As much as it is fun to imagine that there is an enemy, I expect this group and the "Pokemon card flipper" types are but a symptom of any good's popularity.  If anything, the enemy is just as much us:  the bourbon enthusiasts who are worried about their favorite bourbons not being on shelves anymore, or who like bunkering dozens or hundreds of bottles at a time.  And the on premise accounts who like our money and want to make more of us.

[dcbt]

Barron's had an article on Boston Beer (aka Sammy Adams) this week.  While I read it I was thinking of the parallels to the current bourbon market and if something similar will be written about that in a few years.  Blips immediately below and full link at bottom.

 

"The problem for Boston Beer is that craft beer appears to have reached a saturation point... 

 

When Boston Beer was founded in 1984, there were just 97 breweries in the U.S. Now there are more than 5,000. The number has more than doubled since 2012, according to Bart Watson, chief economist at the Brewers Association.

Meanwhile, the fridge at the convenience store is still the same size, and consumers only have so much patience when they browse. Jim Koch, the chairman and founder of Boston Beer, said on the company’s conference call that consumers might actually be suffering from a “paradox of choice, where if you have too much variety, it actually depresses consumer purchases in that category.”

In fact, all these choices might be forcing consumers into the arms of (cue scary music) Big Beer.

“I’ve heard speculation from a couple of retailers that perhaps the fact that there were too many choices has in fact turned consumers away from craft with its extraordinary variety and category clutter and confusion and pushed them to something simple,” Koch said.

“When they can’t figure out what craft beer to have, they just say, ‘I’ll have a Corona.’”

 

http://www.barrons.com/articles/boston-beer-loses-its-edge-1488000288

[CardsandBourbon]

I think whether it has or will peak is not so much a function of us Baby Boomers but Gen X and the Millennials.  Boomers grew up during the time when Ward Cleaver would come home and while June was getting dinner on the table would step into the library "the early man cave" and pour some VOB from the decanter into his glass while listening to Beaver or Wally's latest problem.  NOTE:  For you youngsters this was a show called Leave It To Beaver.  We either embraced bourbon at that time or rejected it.  

 

I grew up in a "dry county" and wasn't around it.  For the most part in the last 10-15 years, when I started having disposable income I got more into wine.  I've actually come to bourbon recently as a result of my Gen X son's interest in it.  The true aficionados, like my son are into bourbon not for the "coolness" factor of having the latest greatest pour, but for the enjoyment of the spirit.  The buy it to have it group will move on but the true believers will stay with the spirit.  I don't see a crash as much as a flattening out of the market.  Kind of like the dot com boom where the borderline pours will cease to be and the good ones will continue on.  Of course this is just my opinion and I may be completely wrong.  It's happened before, so my wife tells me. LOL

[flahute]

4 hours ago, garbanzobean said:

As much as it is fun to imagine that there is an enemy, I expect this group and the "Pokemon card flipper" types are but a symptom of any good's popularity.  If anything, the enemy is just as much us:  the bourbon enthusiasts who are worried about their favorite bourbons not being on shelves anymore, or who like bunkering dozens or hundreds of bottles at a time.  And the on premise accounts who like our money and want to make more of us.

Agree with this. This is something smokinjoe has said quite a few times before as well. My anecdotal evidence shows that if flippers are completely taken out of the equation, our local allocations of LE's are still impossible to get unless you have those special connections. How do I know this? I know enough of the enthusiasts locally now and I know what the allocation numbers are for some of the local stores. People who want to drink the stuff still outnumber the bottles available. 

 

Things won't level off until bourbon stops being "the thing" that everyone talks about and the number of newcomers to the category slows down. And, it won't get better until the mindset of newcomers shifts away from the "I must go straight to the top and have the best right now" way of thinking. Even then, there's only so much better it can get, if at all.

[garbanzobean]

Also I'd just like to remind everyone ONCE AGAIN that if the foreign bourbon market ever develops as explosively as has been predicted in the past, it ain't going to be our bottom shelfers they will be going for.  Well, all the good VFM ones will also disappear due to supply constraints, but my point is that they are going to be trying to buy up all our LEs.  Right now that's not what seems to be happening, but no one really knows what the future holds.  Well, except for me.  I know what my future holds.  My future holds several cases of Stagg Jr. 

 

Edit: on the bright side, if that does happen, we can start blaming "those darn foreigners" instead of "those darn flippers/millennials/baby boomers/gen xers/on premise accounts/rich people/hipsters . . . ."

Edited February 26, 2017 by garbanzobean

[jvd99]

10 hours ago, dcbt said:

Jim Koch, the chairman and founder of Boston Beer, said on the company’s conference call that consumers might actually be suffering from a “paradox of choice, where if you have too much variety, it actually depresses consumer purchases in that category.”

 

 

This is why Costco has very few choices among its entire inventory.  

[dcbt]

Road trip, anyone, to hit all 805?  Granted, some may be NDPs, but it's also from last summer so undoubtedly more have since been added.

http://www.whiskyintelligence.com/2016/07/bourbon-rye-whiskey-distilleries-in-usa-whiskey-map-now-available-american-whiskey-news/

[Bbstout]

This was at a restaurant in South Dakota.  The owner was displaying his collection.  There were 20 other shelves holding countless rares.  One shelf had around 100 Booker's of various years including 25ths and Rye.  Another shelf full  of Blantons,  SFTB and gold.  Many other shelves of bottles I have never seen.  It was a Bourbon candy store. 

[DeepCover]

@Bbstout

 

Wow. Got anymore pics by chance?

[oke&coke]

I need new pants. 

[Harry in WashDC]

13 minutes ago, oke&coke said:

I need new pants. 

LOL.

[Whiskey Dick]

2 hours ago, oke&coke said:

I need new pants. 

 

 

I'm more inclined to think, 'what a dick'. collecting and showcasing entire hoardes of things others would like to actually enjoy. If it was 1-2 of each, sure.....

[Whiskey Dick]

the simple fact that people gleefully get on here anymore and post pics of WSR purchases tells me we are nowhere near the end of this craze. I remember when it was scoffed at, and now just due to the Weller name, it's a commodity.

[Harry in WashDC]

3 minutes ago, Whiskey Dick said:

 

 

I'm more inclined to think, 'what a dick'. collecting and showcasing entire hoardes of things others would like to actually enjoy. If it was 1-2 of each, sure.....

WD -  I get that.  When I saw the picture, my first thought was, "attention-getting device".  Farting works for me, and it's cheaper.  Second thought - will he live long enough to enjoy them all?  OTOH, I thought the pants joke was a nice response.  I haven't seen that much PVW in one place since the price of the Lot B went over $60, and I told Steve, my purveyor, "Sorry, no more for me."  I have no real regrets of doing so.  I discovered a whole new world of bourbon by leaving my high-maintenance faves behind.

 

What do you think are the chances of getting the shiny object crowd to start stockpiling, say, Vespa motor scooters.  I reallyreally wanted one when I was 14.

[b1gcountry]

I just picked up a new bottle of Weller! I'm so excited!

[Golferpimp1]

This was at a restaurant in South Dakota.  The owner was displaying his collection.  There were 20 other shelves holding countless rares.  One shelf had around 100 Booker's of various years including 25ths and Rye.  Another shelf full  of Blantons,  SFTB and gold.  Many other shelves of bottles I have never seen.  It was a Bourbon candy store. 

Ok so you'll have to share where of you don't mind since I spend some time up there with the in laws.......

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

[PaulO]

Apparently bars and restaurants getting priority is true. 

I just hope this guy offers a good pour at a fair price.

[jvd99]

3 hours ago, Whiskey Dick said:

 

 

I'm more inclined to think, 'what a dick'. collecting and showcasing entire hoardes of things others would like to actually enjoy. If it was 1-2 of each, sure.....

Exactly why you'll never see a pic of my bunker in the show us your stash thread.  I need a safe space...or is it a safety pin?  Oh well, I'm just going to admire my bunker now, carry on...

[Louisiana]

 

Hope that restaurant is locked up very good. Very impressive though.

 

 

[musekatcher]

14 hours ago, Bbstout said:

This was at a restaurant in South Dakota.  The owner was displaying his collection.  There were 20 other shelves holding countless rares.  One shelf had around 100 Booker's of various years including 25ths and Rye.  Another shelf full  of Blantons,  SFTB and gold.  Many other shelves of bottles I have never seen.  It was a Bourbon candy store.

 

Looks like 30k+ in PVW alone on half a shelf.  If there are 20 more shelves, that's another 600 bottles.  60k? 

[Bbstout]

9 hours ago, musekatcher said:

 

Looks like 30k+ in PVW alone on half a shelf.  If there are 20 more shelves, that's another 600 bottles.  60k? 

Easily. I would make sure I closed every night.

[miller542]

On 3/4/2017 at 4:08 PM, Bbstout said:

This was at a restaurant in South Dakota.  The owner was displaying his collection.  There were 20 other shelves holding countless rares.  One shelf had around 100 Booker's of various years including 25ths and Rye.  Another shelf full  of Blantons,  SFTB and gold.  Many other shelves of bottles I have never seen.  It was a Bourbon candy store. 

Is this available for sale for consumption?  Because this looks more like a bourbon museum than candy store.

[beasled]

16 minutes ago, miller542 said:

Is this available for sale for consumption?  Because this looks more like a bourbon museum than candy store.

 

The unopened bottles would suggest not..

[Clueby]

14 minutes ago, miller542 said:

Is this available for sale for consumption?  Because this looks more like a bourbon museum than candy store.

It sounded like it was for display only.  I see one (possibly) open bottle at the back of the ORVW stack.  I don't get this.  I don't think I have anything that I wouldn't open or doesn't already have a duplicate opened.