Harry in WashDC Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 0:38 PM, smokinjoe said: Here ya go...That's Harry in the passenger seat... Sure. Sure. Make Fun. THEN, go back and read the posts again. I'm not the only one with hidden compartments in the car OR with a penchant for testing the efficacy of the suspension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry in WashDC Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On another matter -- The Distilled Spirits Council (DISCUS) released its summary of distilled spirits sales in 2016. Here's some highlights, and the link to the release on the DISCUS website follows my extracted highlights. American whiskey sales domestically were up 6.8% over 2015 to 21.8 million cases. RE: the next big thing - cognac sales were up 12.1% to 5.1 million cases. American whiskey exports were up 10.2% (but cases sold isn't given). Vietnam doubled their purchases to $45.9 million, $29.2 million over 2015. Some beer info is given, too, and more detailed info and charts are linked there. http://www.discus.org/2016AnnualEconomicBriefing/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saul_cooperstein Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Most interesting line in the article for me was the one that implied that whiskey still room to grow because consumption (per capita I assume) of whiskey still below historical norms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flahute Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Saw someone on one of the facebook groups with a few dozen Kentucky Owls and someone commenting how this guy was smart to buy them at $300 each when he did. Yep - the peak is far away from this circumstance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richnimrod Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 minute ago, flahute said: Saw someone on one of the facebook groups with a few dozen Kentucky Owls and someone commenting how this guy was smart to buy them at $300 each when he did. Yep - the peak is far away from this circumstance. I wish the gentleman luck. ...Yet I assume he'll do very well without my administering any extra good fortune via this wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Dusty Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, flahute said: Saw someone on one of the facebook groups with a few dozen Kentucky Owls and someone commenting how this guy was smart to buy them at $300 each when he did. Yep - the peak is far away from this circumstance. Exhibit A why I'm not on FB. That kind of silliness drives me crazy. And as much ire as gets directed at the flippers....well, there's no flipping without a willing buyer. And that's what gets me here. Paying MSRP for the Owl is exorbitant IMO. Paying over that is really dumb money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flahute Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Old Dusty said: Exhibit A why I'm not on FB. That kind of silliness drives me crazy. And as much ire as gets directed at the flippers....well, there's no flipping without a willing buyer. And that's what gets me here. Paying MSRP for the Owl is exorbitant IMO. Paying over that is really dumb money. Totally agree. I used to be in a number of those groups because I liked seeing what things were selling for. I got tired of all the posturing and arguments so now I'm only in one and my days there are numbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Dusty Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Steve, I know a lot of folks coming to the same conclusions you are. Too much drama and nastiness. As is often said on here, if you aren't having fun you are doing it wrong. That shiz can't be fun. Profitable for many, but not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I see it the other way. The crazier it gets, the more the bubble is swollen, and the more and more suddenly and violently it can pop. Spiraling crazy is a sign of closeness to the burst, not distance. As Old Dusty just said, it's gone past fun. I don't think even the rich doodz are enjoying buying limiteds on secondary these days. It's probably starting to feel more chore than score. All of the incentives are steadily building to push people out, not draw new blood in. From these recent developments it seems the limiteds are now being pushed by traders more than enthusiasts. That's an important distinction, because traders for the most part have no loyalty to the commodities they buy and sell. Unlike enthusiasts, when spirits cease to be the "it" thing, the traders will drop them like a bad habit. I think it's a matter of time, but every day I'm amazed at how far it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Dusty Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Hope you are right on the timing. Whenever it happens I will be patiently waiting to liberate a few bottles from people who held too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richnimrod Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 3 hours ago, The Black Tot said: I see it the other way. The crazier it gets, the more the bubble is swollen, and the more and more suddenly and violently it can pop. Spiraling crazy is a sign of closeness to the burst, not distance. As Old Dusty just said, it's gone past fun. I don't think even the rich doodz are enjoying buying limiteds on secondary these days. It's probably starting to feel more chore than score. All of the incentives are steadily building to push people out, not draw new blood in. From these recent developments it seems the limiteds are now being pushed by traders more than enthusiasts. That's an important distinction, because traders for the most part have no loyalty to the commodities they buy and sell. Unlike enthusiasts, when spirits cease to be the "it" thing, the traders will drop them like a bad habit. I think it's a matter of time, but every day I'm amazed at how far it's gone. Mr. Tot, I sincerely hope you are correct. Your logic sounds 'on the money'; but my fear is that so little of this (collecting to flip) is based upon logic. Rather than logic, it seems to be based on the irrational belief that huge profits are guaranteed in relatively brief time frames by buying almost anything that's thought to be 'limited' or has been 'hyped' on the interwebs. The problem seems to be that this irrational belief is consistently being proven true! I agree with your contention that the more (and the more quickly) the bubble swells, the less likely it will continue for much longer; at least I hope so. ...Think Tulips in old Holland..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie76 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 14 hours ago, The Black Tot said: I see it the other way. The crazier it gets, the more the bubble is swollen, and the more and more suddenly and violently it can pop. Spiraling crazy is a sign of closeness to the burst, not distance. As Old Dusty just said, it's gone past fun. I don't think even the rich doodz are enjoying buying limiteds on secondary these days. It's probably starting to feel more chore than score. All of the incentives are steadily building to push people out, not draw new blood in. From these recent developments it seems the limiteds are now being pushed by traders more than enthusiasts. That's an important distinction, because traders for the most part have no loyalty to the commodities they buy and sell. Unlike enthusiasts, when spirits cease to be the "it" thing, the traders will drop them like a bad habit. I think it's a matter of time, but every day I'm amazed at how far it's gone. My opinion, so take it for what it is worth. The results of the "pop" won't be hard to find bottles sitting on store shelves for months on end like it used to be. Rather, the "pop" will be more like a slow deflation where harder to find bottles might be in greater supply, but still rationed out...whatever that means. There will certainly be less speculation than what we currently see (i.e., people clearing the shelves of bottles that might be the next big thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 6 hours ago, Jamie76 said: My opinion, so take it for what it is worth. The results of the "pop" won't be hard to find bottles sitting on store shelves for months on end like it used to be. Rather, the "pop" will be more like a slow deflation where harder to find bottles might be in greater supply, but still rationed out...whatever that means. There will certainly be less speculation than what we currently see (i.e., people clearing the shelves of bottles that might be the next big thing). I agree. I think it's going to start with some new hip fad. Someone rates Tears of Llorona tequila the greatest spirit in the world or something. A few stars name drop it in popular movies. Hey, you can actually get this stuff! The tequila wave starts. The producer of Mad Men creates a new show called Loco Hombres, with tumblers of tequila on the end tables of the rich and powerful. (Yes, I'm having fun with this and I'm kidding) The businessmen now need TOL to buy for their top clients instead of Pappy and WFEs. Secondary experiences a drop in demand and a reduction in prices to slightly above MSRPs. Still a markup, but no longer enough profit to be worth the hassle of driving around town to round them up for the flippers. Then it will be a glut of mid-shelfers. ETL, OWA, Blanton's and 4yr WFEs everywhere, all the time. Then the almost-rares like ECBP. This will take the pressure off the rackhouses to chop off the aging at 7 years or less, and will lead to increased supply up the aging chain. We might see the return of some age statements on the mid shelf to try and boost sales. Basically, the last to disappear will be the first to return, for about 5yrs until even the aged expressions become plentiful again and we start accumulating older barrels for the next wave of limiteds. OR I think scenario two is also possible: Some event disrupts international markets, and we have a global recession. Or we end up in a stupid unwinnable and unaffordable war. The historic debt levels in the US plunge us into recesson/depression. These aren't exactly stable times. People still want to drink whiskey (and perhaps need it more than ever!), but priorities and the value of the dollar have had a shocking reboot. The idea of spending more than $50 on a bottle goes back to ridiculous overnight, and yes, in this case, the secondary market crashes, and limiteds are again back on the shelves while people are figuring out how to eat and pay their rents/mortgages. Bubble busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garbanzobean Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 A wise man once said "sh*t in one hand, wish in the other. Let me know which one fills up first." I still think demand from on premise accounts will put domestic pressure on the supply for years to come, regardless of how many get sick of the hunt. And I'm not going to hope for a massive economic downturn or another war that kills a bunch more of my brothers in arms just so I can score Teh Pappiez. Ultimately I think Mr. Cowdery is right: International demand is going to be the final arbiter of the expansion or contraction of the bourbon market. Everyone was hoping China would catch on to the bourbon craze, but there are plenty of other markets where it could happen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cundiff5535 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 (edited) I'll give my thoughts here... I can say I do not think the "bubble" is anywhere near blowing... nearly every craft beer person I know is slowly moving to Bourbon (and still in love with beer). Combine that with all the craft breweries and the fact that everyone is rushing stuff out... the demand will be sky high. Age statements are long gone and most places are not able to even source those juice any longer. Because of that, demand will stay sky high, and price will continue to rise. i will not even get into how much gets shipped over seas... Wanted to mention the Owl comment up top... $300 looks smart as they all are now selling for $700-$1k depending on batch number... I love the stuff but it's not worth $1k imo Edited February 22, 2017 by Cundiff5535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopVol Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, Cundiff5535 said: I'll give my thoughts here... I can say I do not think the "bubble" is anywhere near blowing... nearly every craft beer person I know is slowly moving to Bourbon (and still in love with beer). Combine that with all the craft breweries and the fact that everyone is rushing stuff out... the demand will be sky high. Age statements are long gone and most places are not able to even source those juice any longer. Because of that, demand will stay sky high, and price will continue to rise. i will not even get into how much gets shipped over seas... Wanted to mention the Owl comment up top... $300 looks smart as they all are now selling for $700-$1k depending on batch number... I love the stuff but it's not worth $1k imo I have to agree with this. I’m one of those craft beer people you mention that ventured into bourbon. My beer cellar being way over crowded and wanting to shed a few lbs steered me to bourbon. I still love beer but I’ve gotten pretty disgusted with direction craft beer has gone, way too much overhyping and limited releases, macro breweries buying up the craft shops and changing recipes. I was very discouraged to find some of the same things going on in bourbon. I’m fortunate on the beer side though, I brew beer and can clone just about any beer with a little research and a couple tries and I’ve got my house beers I keep on tap. The bourbon boom seems newer than the craft beer boom and the number of people rushing out to get the new beer releases don’t really seem to be slowing down too much from what I hear so it’s possible the peek isn’t even in sight yet for the bourbon boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 (edited) For the record, I'm not "hoping" for an economic crash or war. I find those things as horrible and undesirable as anyone else. I just see them as distinct possibilities. Edited February 22, 2017 by The Black Tot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garbanzobean Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, The Black Tot said: For the record, I'm not "hoping" for an economic crash or war. I find those things as horrible and undesirable as anyone else. I just see them as distinct possibilities. Hey Tot, I did not intend to imply you were. I used the "I" as I was trying to make it clear I was referring to myself. I hate it when others put words in my mouth, so I try not to do the same to others. Cheers, Eric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tanstaafl2 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 7:53 PM, flahute said: Saw someone on one of the facebook groups with a few dozen Kentucky Owls and someone commenting how this guy was smart to buy them at $300 each when he did. Yep - the peak is far away from this circumstance. On 2/20/2017 at 7:56 PM, Richnimrod said: I wish the gentleman luck. ...Yet I assume he'll do very well without my administering any extra good fortune via this wish. If it is bad luck you are wishing on this flipper then I am right there with you! Getting rear ended with all this over hyped booze in the trunk which smashes it to pieces seems somehow appropriate. Not like the bourbon world (or I) would miss out on much with the premature eradication of a few cases of Kentucky Owl, whatever the heck that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richnimrod Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 hour ago, tanstaafl2 said: If it is bad luck you are wishing on this flipper then I am right there with you! Getting rear ended with all this over hyped booze in the trunk which smashes it to pieces seems somehow appropriate. Not like the bourbon world (or I) would miss out on much with the premature eradication of a few cases of Kentucky Owl, whatever the heck that is. I guess you couldn't tell for certain; but, the old tongue was waaaaaaay into the cheek on this one. I agree with your postulated scenario, Bruce. How fitting would it be to have such a collision befall such a person... and even the other person who thought how smart he was for grabbing it all up at $300 per. All in all, the KO drenching the pavement might not be such a bad thing. Might even be a good use of it. Clean the street really well, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvd99 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 According to the KDA barrel inventory is at 6.7 million and is the highest level since 1974. I don't know about you all, but I'm ready for the next glut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limegoldconvertible68 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 One thing I am noticing at the bigger corporate type stores is the incredible selection of crap...oops craft bourbon on the shelf. Navigating the bourbon section in these types of stores is no longer fun. Multiple bottles of stuff I have never heard of let alone tried and I have no desire to try them. There are so many that a random bourbon buyer has a 50/50 chance of buying one. Since I haven't tried them maybe I full of BS but I can see where after dropping $50 or so a few times it would be easy to move on to a different spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bourbon4all Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 15 hours ago, jvd99 said: According to the KDA barrel inventory is at 6.7 million and is the highest level since 1974. I don't know about you all, but I'm ready for the next glut. That's exciting. If the "boom" keeps on a little longer that number will keep growing and growing. That'll help get things back to properly aged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTaylor Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Has anyone given any thought to the effects the baby boomers may be having on the market? I'm over 50 now and though bourbon has always been my spirit of choice, I didn't start stocking and purchasing multiples, hunting unicorns, or start venturing outside my comfort zone or drinking it neat regularly until about 10 years ago. I just couldn't afford it when I was young. Following this scenario (if I'm fairly representative of the bourbon drinking demographic) the baby boomers would have been hitting their bourbon "prime" starting in the '90's. That generation very well could have kicked this whole thing off, and now as they are are approaching their 80's and their demand decreases over the next say 5-10 years the current production numbers virtually guarantee a glut. Unless of course the slope of bourbon' s popularity amongst the younger generations is steeper than the decreasing demand from the baby boomers, but I think the current pricing structure prevents that from happening. I think we're very close to a glut, and the price decreases that have to come with it. Just a thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Dick Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 doubt it. I think the whole trend is being driven by profiteers and the "look what I have!" attitudes of hipsters of, sadly, my generation and younger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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