Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[miller542]

2 hours ago, Clueby said:

It sounded like it was for display only.  I don't get this.  I don't think I have anything that I wouldn't open or doesn't already have a duplicate opened.

 

I don't get it either.

[smokinjoe]

Who's to say that the opposite wall from the picture isn't laden with open bottles of these?  

[Whiskey Dick]

the new posts of people ecstatic to grab a WSR, OFitzBIB, and VOBBIB...are enough to prove its getting even worse. Not saying, by any means, that those are bottom of the barrel bourbons, but they used to be overlooked as they were so readily available people took them for granted.

[Bbstout]

4 hours ago, miller542 said:

Is this available for sale for consumption?  Because this looks more like a bourbon museum than candy store.

Museum...not selling pours unfortunately.

[Harry in WashDC]

2 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

Who's to say that the opposite wall from the picture isn't laden with open bottles of these?  

ME!!  I have the power to read men's minds, you know.  Indeed, as you read this, you are thinking, "What an asshole."  See?

[The Black Tot]

On 3/7/2017 at 3:10 AM, Harry in WashDC said:

ME!!  I have the power to read men's minds, you know.  Indeed, as you read this, you are thinking, "What an asshole."  See?

 

Wow Harry. I hope you continue to use these powers only for good.

[sbsbsb]

I've seen a few comments in here stating that the first sign will come from the secondary market.  I watch the secondary market pretty closely, and do participate some (don't hate me), and can unequivocally state that it's come to a screeching halt.  Nothing is selling.  Prices just got so stupid, and people paid those stupid prices for a hot minute, but I think everyone's woken up.  And in another sign, nicer and nicer bottles are starting to come out of the woodwork again...VVOF's, Hirsch, early BTAC, etc.  But even those aren't moving.  I think the paradigm is again shifting to more inventory and less demand (again, at secondary or collectible prices).

 

Their is still an influx of new enthusiasts getting into bourbon everday, but it's 2017, and they aren't getting on here and reading about Van Winkle (at least in any real positive context), or any other glut bourbons from ghost distilleries.  Hence, they're getting into and going after the derivatives of those which are now mass-produced, for lack of a much better term.  As mentioned above...WSR, OFitzBIB, VOB.  Liquor stores are now holding lotteries for Rock Hill Farms, ECBP, WSR, barrel "picks" of Blanton's, etc.  This too will pass quickly.  It will only take a season or so for those enthusiasts to realize that a NAS bottle of Blanton's or RHF isn't the unicorn myth that was created by the glut era bourbons whose time is at least 4-5 years past at this point.  It's a new world.

[TexanBrad]

I've seen a few comments in here stating that the first sign will come from the secondary market.  I watch the secondary market pretty closely, and do participate some (don't hate me), and can unequivocally state that it's come to a screeching halt.  Nothing is selling.  Prices just got so stupid, and people paid those stupid prices for a hot minute, but I think everyone's woken up.  And in another sign, nicer and nicer bottles are starting to come out of the woodwork again...VVOF's, Hirsch, early BTAC, etc.  But even those aren't moving.  I think the paradigm is again shifting to more inventory and less demand (again, at secondary or collectible prices).
 
Their is still an influx of new enthusiasts getting into bourbon everday, but it's 2017, and they aren't getting on here and reading about Van Winkle (at least in any real positive context), or any other glut bourbons from ghost distilleries.  Hence, they're getting into and going after the derivatives of those which are now mass-produced, for lack of a much better term.  As mentioned above...WSR, OFitzBIB, VOB.  Liquor stores are now holding lotteries for Rock Hill Farms, ECBP, WSR, barrel "picks" of Blanton's, etc.  This too will pass quickly.  It will only take a season or so for those enthusiasts to realize that a NAS bottle of Blanton's or RHF isn't the unicorn myth that was created by the glut era bourbons whose time is at least 4-5 years past at this point.  It's a new world.

I keep an eye on the secondary as well, and even rarely buy a thing or two from generous folks that C+S things that don't make it to my area, and I can't say I see the same slowdown. The market is definitely becoming more fragmented (almost like the wine market, which I've followed for much longer) with more brands, more "hunt-able" bottles, etc. I still see the main items people lust after going for 5-10x retail though.

It is my hope that, as whiskey production becomes a bigger and bigger circle, we will reach a point, as wine seems to have, where you can go to a good store and have an abundance of high quality selection at a reasonable $20-$40 price point. That doesn't mean that the Pappys and the Birthday Bourbons and the Bordeaux First Growths aren't still out there selling for new car prices for a case, but you don't need them to experience the best, or close to the best, that the beverage has to offer.


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[jvd99]

With "advice" like the stuff peddled in this article, the end may come sooner than we think.  Next time you're at the bar, keep an eye out for anyone pouring bourbon into their hands, rubbing them together like Mr. Miagi, and then smelling their hands - which, of course, is the proper way to nose a whiskey 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.mensfitness.com/nutrition/what-to-drink/whiskey-101/amp

[DonutsNBourbon]

10 minutes ago, jvd99 said:

With "advice" like the stuff peddled in this article, the end may come sooner than we think.  Next time you're at the bar, keep an eye out for anyone pouring bourbon into their hands, rubbing them together like Mr. Miagi, and then smelling their hands - which, of course, is the proper way to nose a whiskey 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.mensfitness.com/nutrition/what-to-drink/whiskey-101/amp

 

wow... this article is unbelievable...  for being a master distiller, I would've expected a better explanation of the differences between bourbon and rye.

[flahute]

30 minutes ago, DonutsNBourbon said:

 

wow... this article is unbelievable...  for being a master distiller, I would've expected a better explanation of the differences between bourbon and rye.

Master blender, not distiller. 

Unfortunately, he answered the bourbon/rye question from the standpoint of American bourbon vs. Rye produced anywhere in the world. It's an answer to a different question than most of us thought was being asked. 

[Theiano]

2 minutes ago, flahute said:

Master blender, not distiller. 

Unfortunately, he answered the bourbon/rye question from the standpoint of American bourbon vs. Rye produced anywhere in the world. It's an answer to a different question than most of us thought was being asked. 

 

It is an exceptionally poor interview. When you consider that it is Johnnie Walker it kind of makes sense, he is effectively a brand ambassador, and he is trying to de-emphasize the characteristics of the different whiskies, which essentially promotes Johnnie Walker to a novice drinker ("all whiskies are very similar, but ours takes the best of everything and we've been doing it for a long time so it is the best of all").

[flahute]

3 hours ago, Theiano said:

 

It is an exceptionally poor interview. When you consider that it is Johnnie Walker it kind of makes sense, he is effectively a brand ambassador, and he is trying to de-emphasize the characteristics of the different whiskies, which essentially promotes Johnnie Walker to a novice drinker ("all whiskies are very similar, but ours takes the best of everything and we've been doing it for a long time so it is the best of all").

Agreed. It comes off as an advertisement for their products. The interviewer could have done a better job of redirecting.

[BottledInBond]

3 hours ago, flahute said:

Agreed. It comes off as an advertisement for their products. The interviewer could have done a better job of redirecting.

Am I being too cynical if I suspect that in an instance like this J Walker might actually be paying the magazine for this opportunity to position their products? We know it happens with product placements in TV and movies.....

[OldFitzWithTheGoldLabel]

I just picked up a new bottle of Weller! I'm so excited!

Is that the Weller 15?

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[b1gcountry]

It's hard to find anyone who has even had a sip of it (and lived)

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[JoeTerp]

14 hours ago, jvd99 said:

With "advice" like the stuff peddled in this article, the end may come sooner than we think.  Next time you're at the bar, keep an eye out for anyone pouring bourbon into their hands, rubbing them together like Mr. Miagi, and then smelling their hands - which, of course, is the proper way to nose a whiskey 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.mensfitness.com/nutrition/what-to-drink/whiskey-101/amp

Good thing the editor was knowledgeable enough to chime in. I didn't realize I've been doing it wrong by using a glass. 

[musekatcher]

19 hours ago, DonutsNBourbon said:

 

wow... this article is unbelievable...  for being a master distiller, I would've expected a better explanation of the differences between bourbon and rye.

 

A weak article, but perhaps milktoast for new-o-philes?  One thing mentioned: water on the side.   I keep a glass of water beside a glass of bourbon, and alternate a sip of water every 3-4 sips of bourbon.  I feel there is a more intense conversion on your tongue this way.  I came upon it by accident.   Is that what the author is describing? 

[dcbt]

We need to consider the source of that article was Men's Fitness.  Not exactly a go-to for whiskey insights...

[b1gcountry]

Anyone talking about'the most manly of whiskey' or anything like that losses my respect.

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[b1gcountry]

Most manly of anything will pretty much lose my respect actually.

Manliness is being responsible and confident, but knowing yourself and your capabilities.

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[DonutsNBourbon]

4 hours ago, musekatcher said:

 

A weak article, but perhaps milktoast for new-o-philes?  One thing mentioned: water on the side.   I keep a glass of water beside a glass of bourbon, and alternate a sip of water every 3-4 sips of bourbon.  I feel there is a more intense conversion on your tongue this way.  I came upon it by accident.   Is that what the author is describing? 

 

I always do too, it helps to open up the bourbon for me.  and to keep me from getting dehydrated

[meadeweber]

2 hours ago, DonutsNBourbon said:

 

I always do too, it helps to open up the bourbon for me.  and to keep me from getting dehydrated

That's not very manly.  

[gohrmund]

On ‎2‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 9:16 AM, BourbonGuy said:

You beat me to it.  There was a link that I saw on this site.  https://www.ft.com/content/a9878bea-2eec-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc 

As you mentioned there is a graph of the top 10 whiskey markets.  USA is #2 and is only 1/3 of the India market.  What makes it even more interesting is China isn't on the graph.

Don't hold your breath on that. I invest in a wine store that was focused on stores and distribution in china about 5 years ago. The thought was the rising middle class will be buying wine like crazy. Its been 5 years and I am still waiting for the china boom. I started with 400,000 shares and I now sit with 4,000 shares after 2 10-1 reverse splits. Actually they have recently changed the model and now are more into the cannabis business. Pipes, Vaporizers and stuff like that. They even gave up on the china boom, which is how I feel on waiting for the bourbon bubble to burst.

 

Gary

[fishnbowljoe]

I'm not quite sure how to be politically correct here.  I don't want to lump the oriental markets into one big basket because I know that they're different. Regardless of that, trends usually have a tendency to be relative. The Japanese got on the bourbon band wagon a while back. China then became a point of interest and exploration into the bourbon/spirits world. I've heard that now, the Japanese have been slowly drifting away from bourbon a bit, and have started to become slightly enamored with craft beers. If true, will the Chinese soon follow? 

 

Any comments or insight from y'all over in Japan would be greatly appreciated.

 

Joe