Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[flahute]

5 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

LOL!  Probably not enough. I guess only time will tell.

 

Biba! Joe

Indeed.

[geclbxf]

2 hours ago, flahute said:

Indeed.

According to the sales teams and tater liquor stores - all of them.

 

In reality = Very Few.

[smokinjoe]

There is the bourbon “boom”, and there is a bourbon “bubble”.  Don’t confuse them. “Taters”, secondary, LEs, etc., is the bubble. The bubble is but a gnat on the ass of the bourbon boom.  

[mbroo5880i]

How many barrels did Barton lose a few years ago?  That was probably their honey barrels.  

 

Some may be better than others but to quote Stephen Stills "Love the one you're with."  In the dark or in the glass, to quote Hot Chocolate "Everyone's a Winner Baby." Apologies to Adam Sandler.

 

 

[flahute]

3 hours ago, geclbxf said:

According to the sales teams and tater liquor stores - all of them.

 

In reality = Very Few.

Exquisite.

[PaulO]

I expect what is coming off the stills of the legacy companies to be very consistent in quality.  Next that takes us to the barrel.  We know lumber varies.  How well was it dried.  What was the char level.  Then we have where said barrel is placed in the warehouse, and how long.  You can see where things may diverge, particularly with aging.

In the past, I think barrels may have occasionally sat around in unusual parts of warehouses because demand was not so high.

Nowadays demand is high.  Everything is tightly monitored and controlled.  Barrels of same product and age, likely to be nearly identical.

[BottledInBond]

7 hours ago, PaulO said:

I expect what is coming off the stills of the legacy companies to be very consistent in quality.  Next that takes us to the barrel.  We know lumber varies.  How well was it dried.  What was the char level.  Then we have where said barrel is placed in the warehouse, and how long.  You can see where things may diverge, particularly with aging.

In the past, I think barrels may have occasionally sat around in unusual parts of warehouses because demand was not so high.

Nowadays demand is high.  Everything is tightly monitored and controlled.  Barrels of same product and age, likely to be nearly identical.

I don’t know if I agree with that entirely. Keep in mind that many distilleries have different types of structures, stone/metal/wood, with different heights, different wind and sun exposure, etc. Several distillers also have Warehouses in different locations entirely. I do think what’s coming off the stills is consistent, but that’s really the only thing that is consistent. I’ve tasted multiple different barrels that came from the same floor of the same warehouse with the same age and they’ve tasted quite different which would suggest the barrel itself can provide pretty decent variances. But the variances are even bigger warehouse to warehouse, especially including ones who have multiple locations, like, try a bottle that was aged at HH Deatsville and tell me it doesn’t taste different than a bottle aged in Bardstown. 
 

Four Roses is a great example of variances barrel to barrel as they take some of the warehouse variables out of the equation. 

[Clueby]

So this is what a lottery in the St. Louis area looks like.  You get 1 entry for every $200 you spend.  At least the prices are reasonable for the lottery items but the chances of 1 of 22 bottles is somewhere between slim and none.  BT is pretty much regularly available most places (although usually limited to 1 per).  MIGHT find HMcK occasionally.  The others are unicorns.

 

[PhantomLamb]

1 hour ago, Clueby said:

So this is what a lottery in the St. Louis area looks like.  You get 1 entry for every $200 you spend.  At least the prices are reasonable for the lottery items but the chances of 1 of 22 bottles is somewhere between slim and none.  BT is pretty much regularly available most places (although usually limited to 1 per).  MIGHT find HMcK occasionally.  The others are unicorns.

 

$200 just to enter?  Frankly, I don't think any of those bottles are worth even $80 let alone $200.  That's rough.

[0895]

3 hours ago, Clueby said:

So this is what a lottery in the St. Louis area looks like.  You get 1 entry for every $200 you spend.  At least the prices are reasonable for the lottery items but the chances of 1 of 22 bottles is somewhere between slim and none.  BT is pretty much regularly available most places (although usually limited to 1 per).  MIGHT find HMcK occasionally.  The others are unicorns.

 

 

I'm going to add that this store is known for sending a lot of stuff out the back door and then having pretend lotteries like this, to make it look like they are doing the right thing by the consumers.  It's all an act to save face, because someone called them out about selling bottles for secondary pricing on their internet site under a different name than their store name.

There's no way they only got 1 bottle of ETL, SJR, 4 Blanton's, 3 BT, etc. all summer.

Where's the rest of the case of 6 is the question?

In fact I was there about a month ago and the HHBiB and BT were out on the shelf at those prices, along with ECBP, ER10, and a few others.

I even bought an Eagle rare off the shelf for $40, and you don't see that in the lottery, but BT is?

The usual shenanigans with this store are at play here and I'm not buying in.

If anyone wants to add $160 to the $40 I spent on my ER10 for a "lotto ticket", I'll gladly help them out.

[0895]

On 7/2/2021 at 7:46 AM, BottledInBond said:

 

Four Roses is a great example of variances barrel to barrel as they take some of the warehouse variables out of the equation. 

 

Absolutely.

I often look for tastes of 4R barrels next to or near barrels of bottles I own (from the same mash run), just to see how they vary.

The difference can be staggering.

[geclbxf]

On 8/30/2021 at 3:11 PM, PhantomLamb said:

$200 just to enter?  Frankly, I don't think any of those bottles are worth even $80 let alone $200.  That's rough.

I think this is just the "reward" system, if you spent $1000 on everyday purchases you would get 5 entries for a chance to win and buy at that posted price.

[PhantomLamb]

4 hours ago, geclbxf said:

I think this is just the "reward" system, if you spent $1000 on everyday purchases you would get 5 entries for a chance to win and buy at that posted price.

Understood, that was going to be my second guess.

[fishnbowljoe]

As if things aren’t ridiculous enough…..

 

I received a group text last night from one of the guys in our local bourbon/cigar group. He said he was at a store two weeks ago and they had 15-20 cases of BT stacked up near the checkout. He didn’t buy any then. He was out of Four Roses and went back to that store last night to restock. He figured he’d also get a bottle of BT to see what all the fuss is about. They only had two bottles of BT left. They were on the shelf behind the checkout along side the “good stuff” with a limit of one. When he asked what was going on with BT, the guy behind the counter told him that the word was out that BT was just Blanton’s in a domestic bottle. WTF? Sheesh what craziness. I reckon taters and flippers just want to keep perpetuating things. The good news is that it was still priced at $23.99, and he bought one. In hindsight, I’m glad I bought a couple of liters of BT last week even though I didn’t really need any more. I’m also glad I have plenty of BT in my bunker. Hopefully anyway.

 

Biba! Joe

[PaulO]

9 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

As if things aren’t ridiculous enough…..

 

I received a group text last night from one of the guys in our local bourbon/cigar group. He said he was at a store two weeks ago and they had 15-20 cases of BT stacked up near the checkout. He didn’t buy any then. He was out of Four Roses and went back to that store last night to restock. He figured he’d also get a bottle of BT to see what all the fuss is about. They only had two bottles of BT left. They were on the shelf behind the checkout along side the “good stuff” with a limit of one. When he asked what was going on with BT, the guy behind the counter told him that the word was out that BT was just Blanton’s in a domestic bottle. WTF? Sheesh what craziness. I reckon taters and flippers just want to keep perpetuating things. The good news is that it was still priced at $23.99, and he bought one. In hindsight, I’m glad I bought a couple of liters of BT last week even though I didn’t really need any more. I’m also glad I have plenty of BT in my bunker. Hopefully anyway.

 

Biba! Joe

Joe, down here it's normal for me to see cases and cases of BT 750mls and 1.75L bottles at local grocery stores.  Sometimes they even run a good sale price.  Bad news is that's the only product of theirs I see, other than: Benchmark, Fireball, or a stray Saz Rye at tater price.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if all this big expansion at the distillery goes for the flagship brand. 

[fosmith]

22 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

As if things aren’t ridiculous enough…..

 

I received a group text last night from one of the guys in our local bourbon/cigar group. He said he was at a store two weeks ago and they had 15-20 cases of BT stacked up near the checkout. He didn’t buy any then. He was out of Four Roses and went back to that store last night to restock. He figured he’d also get a bottle of BT to see what all the fuss is about. They only had two bottles of BT left. They were on the shelf behind the checkout along side the “good stuff” with a limit of one. When he asked what was going on with BT, the guy behind the counter told him that the word was out that BT was just Blanton’s in a domestic bottle. WTF? Sheesh what craziness. I reckon taters and flippers just want to keep perpetuating things. The good news is that it was still priced at $23.99, and he bought one. In hindsight, I’m glad I bought a couple of liters of BT last week even though I didn’t really need any more. I’m also glad I have plenty of BT in my bunker. Hopefully anyway.

 

Biba! Joe

Interesting. Here in the Bay Area, BT is always available.  It's like $22 at Safeway.  And Eagle Rare is pretty available also though it comes and goes.  I've even gotten a couple of bottles of Blanton's at Safeway for $55 although not very often.  Weller and Stagg Jr.  have become impossible to find tho..

[IowaJeff]

Based on activity in local bourbon facebook groups, you can occasionally find BT or Eagle Rare on the shelves in the Des Moines, Iowa area, but not often and they won't last long. Blantons you may find in an off the beaten path place.  Weller, Stagg Jr, and EHT are not going to happen.  For the highly allocated bottles, some of the larger grocery chains will sometimes do raffles, but I suspect there are  backroom deals at some shops.  There are a couple of FB groups that have a somewhat strained relationship it seems.  Both have done some picks.  One doesn't do secondary sales at all, the other does.  One has 3k+ members, the other 400 or so.  I'm not too active in either, I'll sometimes share my thoughts on a bottle.  Enthusiasm still seems to be growing here.  I'm just hoping I can still buy bottles like Rare Breed, OF 1920 locally going forward.  

[mal00768]

Okay confession time. I cry myself to sleep every night as I think about how I did not stock up on those $50 Knob creek 12-15 year old picks that were everywhere. I have a single 15 year left that my father in law gave me. And it's the newer $100+ bottling that seems to be more rare than it should be. boohoo 

[G L Tirebiter]

Today's news.....2 bottle limit on some product in PA....

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/pennsylvania/articles/2021-09-16/pennsylvania-liquor-stores-put-2-bottle-limit-on-some-booze

[PhantomLamb]

On 9/16/2021 at 7:47 PM, G L Tirebiter said:

Today's news.....2 bottle limit on some product in PA....

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/pennsylvania/articles/2021-09-16/pennsylvania-liquor-stores-put-2-bottle-limit-on-some-booze

Yep, but won't solve a thing.  Stupid IMO.

[Harry in WashDC]

BUMP!  Virginia is a control state. TODAY, I saw and passed  on OF 1897 BIB at $45 a 750 not on sale.  Usually, I see it for over $50.  That’s a significant drop in MSRP.  Just saying.  Also, the MSRP on the MM expressions were a few dollars lower than last month’s.

 

Is a trend developing????

[smokinjoe]

Another big year in 2021 for American whiskey.  
 

https://www.distilledspirits.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/American-Whiskey-2021-2.pdf

 

[FasterHorses]

Black Tot…. We gettin close?  I thought covid would kill it. Maybe inflation will bring back some sanity. 

[PhantomLamb]

2 hours ago, FasterHorses said:

Black Tot…. We gettin close?  I thought covid would kill it. Maybe inflation will bring back some sanity. 

I've been bugging him with the same question for the last 2 years now lol.

[Kepler]

The history of this thread is amazing.  Judging by my own personal observations on local Facebook bourbon groups recently, I am sensing a plateau has been reached.  Seems like the rate of new joiners has slowed.  That's always been my barometer.  When fewer people begin joining the craze ("I'm new to the game" -- btw I hate that phrase ... is drinking bourbon a "game"?) ... anyway I digress... When the number of new joiners levels off, the craze stops growing, and inevitably the temporary hobbyists (the ones just passing through) will slowly leave and over time equilibrium will be reached.  In theory mind you.