Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[chasking]

My perception is that what was for years perceived as a bubble or anomalous market may have transitioned into a new normal, which may change in the future but not in the sense of going back to what it was.

 

A thread running throughout discussion of the bourbon boom was that even if the fad for unicorn bourbons and feeding frenzy around certain products abated the mere fact that the fad happened brought a bunch more people into the whiskey hobby in general, and they are not all going to leave, so the market for bourbon would be changed.  I haven't pulled up the actual statistics but the interwebs appear to predict continued growth for the rest of the decade, but not at a market-disruptive rate.  Maybe the way things are is the way they are going to be for a while.

 

One thing that I could see making a difference would be the effect of all the frantic production and distillery expansion of the last decade+ making itself felt.  If everybody could get as much as they wanted of, say, anything in the basic BT line, how much would they buy?

[Jazz June]

2 minutes ago, chasking said:

My perception is that what was for years perceived as a bubble or anomalous market may have transitioned into a new normal, which may change in the future but not in the sense of going back to what it was.

 

A thread running throughout discussion of the bourbon boom was that even if the fad for unicorn bourbons and feeding frenzy around certain products abated the mere fact that the fad happened brought a bunch more people into the whiskey hobby in general, and they are not all going to leave, so the market for bourbon would be changed.  I haven't pulled up the actual statistics but the interwebs appear to predict continued growth for the rest of the decade, but not at a market-disruptive rate.  Maybe the way things are is the way they are going to be for a while.

 

One thing that I could see making a difference would be the effect of all the frantic production and distillery expansion of the last decade+ making itself felt.  If everybody could get as much as they wanted of, say, anything in the basic BT line, how much would they buy?

 

I think this is right. Things are flattening out and appear likely to continue to do so, but it will never go back to the way things "were." To take BT products for example, I think Buffalo Trace and Weller SR will become more and more available, eventually returning to shelf products that people don't obsess over (I know they already are in some places). But I don't think BTAC will ever be available on many store shelves at close to MSRP. And to me, this is fine - the real issue is price on mid-tier/increasing in availability bottles. I used to find $55-60 was a good price point for some of my favorite available bottles, but now that number is more like $75-100. It used to be that a $100 price point was for special releases, but now it's becoming fairly ordinary and most legacy distiller LEs are $200-250. Newer folks online certainly treat $100 as a "regular" price point in my area.  And good $25-30 bottles have climbed to $40-45. I doubt that this trend will reverse even if demand does level off for a while (I sure hope price increases level off soon). While lamenting decreased availability and increased price is of course a reasonable reaction, I don't really want the industry to be hit so hard that there is a rapid reversal of these trends. Rather it would be good if price increases paused for a good while and availability slowly crept up. Along with that increase in availability would hopefully come an increase in quality for some products that have lost quality due to pressure on stocks.

[Kepler]

I pretty much agree with what @chasking and @Jazz June said mostly.  I figure even after the "bust" we are headed for a new normal, not unlike where scotch settled into.

[steven s]

Was just in DC. The boom seems to be in full effect. Saw an OF1924 at 400, and pretty much EVERY "allocated" bottle you could imagine for similar pricing

 

did indulge in a pricey pour of MMCA at Jack Rose .... yum

[Charlutz]

Beginning to see some shifts. Like others have reported across the country, all BT products fly off the shelves even at stupid prices. Here in MD, ER, Stagg Jr, CEHT, RHF, ETL all are MIA. Need to maybe keep it quiet when they are in stock,  but ECBP, Larceny BP, FRSmB Select and OF SiB BP are attainable. That’s somewhat of an improvement over the “less fanatical” distilleries. 
 

Oh, and I’m down to my last bottle and a half of Booker’s that I bought on sale for $42 when I stocked up before the “shocking” price increase to $100 that flopped at first. Seems now that Beam knew what they were doing as when I see it, it’s behind the counter for $125 or even $150. 

Edited February 9, 2024 by Charlutz
Added booker’s comment

[Kepler]

11 hours ago, Charlutz said:

Beginning to see some shifts. Like others have reported across the country, all BT products fly off the shelves even at stupid prices. Here in MD, ER, Stagg Jr, CEHT, RHF, ETL all are MIA. Need to maybe keep it quiet when they are in stock,  but ECBP, Larceny BP, FRSmB Select and OF SiB BP are attainable. That’s somewhat of an improvement over the “less fanatical” distilleries. 
 

Oh, and I’m down to my last bottle and a half of Booker’s that I bought on sale for $42 when I stocked up before the “shocking” price increase to $100 that flopped at first. Seems now that Beam knew what they were doing as when I see it, it’s behind the counter for $125 or even $150. 

 

Yes in retrospect, Beam's remake of Booker's is perhaps the marketing genius move of the decade. 

 

They foresaw that all the growth would be in the new hordes of taters coming into the market with Benjamins burning holes in their pockets.  So many buyers are just eager to drop $100 on anything that moves.  Beam is brilliant.

 

[Charlutz]

Yeah, they already had the nicest packaging for a readily available bourbon, so it was a good brand for premiumization. EHT being in second with the tubes. While I like bookers it’s just not different enough to me from readily available KCSiB, which we can get for $52-62 here. 

[Bourbon Sabbath]

Fred's latest take on this subject.

 

[flahute]

Fred's video summed up:

-customers are not interested in all the new brands anymore and just buy what they like so that part of the boom appears to be slowing. 

-the little distillers aren't selling as much product (related to the above) and some have stopped making new distillate.

-overall, the bourbon. category is doing just fine and the big distillers are doing just fine.

[fishnbowljoe]

A bit unsure about Fred. Met him years ago. I’d much rather read or hear things from Mike Veach and “Colonel” Chuck Cowdery. 

[ThirstyinOhio]

15 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

A bit unsure about Fred. Met him years ago. I’d much rather read or hear things from Mike Veach and “Colonel” Chuck Cowdery. 

I've met Fred several times and he is a nice guy but I completely ignore his reviews/rankings.  The fact that he also tries to take credit for the Maker's Mark Cellar Aged is also cringe worthy as they've been toying with an extra aged release long before Fred.

Edited March 4, 2024 by ThirstyinOhio

[markandrex]

So basically a legend in his own mind.

[fishnbowljoe]

2 hours ago, markandrex said:

So basically a legend in his own mind.

 

[Phil T]

I've never watched or read any of his reviews/ info. Why would I? If I want good, solid info and reviews, I get it here man.

 

Prost!!  Phil 

[Richnimrod]

7 hours ago, markandrex said:

So basically a legend in his own mind.

Although probably true to some extent (he does come across as a little pompous) he is an authoritative writer, and with a pretty interesting and approachable style.   Just my opinions here, of course.

[fishnbowljoe]

Here’s Fred’s story. 
https://reservenationalguard.com/reserve-guard-veterans/former-iraq-war-photojournalist-becomes-world-renowned-bourbon-expert/#:~:text=Fred Minnick for Louisville Magazine,a photojournalist deployed to Iraq.

 

 I met Fred in Louisville. I was with @Vosgar on the way to one of our SB’s get togethers in Bardstown. We met @BourbonJoe, @fricky, @p_elliott, Mike Veach, and a couple of others at Bourbons Bistro to grab a bite to eat. After we ate, we were outside on the deck with the owner of Bourbons Bistro having some nice pours and cigars. Up walked this kinda scruffy looking guy. He had on a checked (flannel?) open collared shirt. No ascot. His hair was unkempt and looked slightly greasy, and it looked like he hadn’t shaved in a couple of days. He walked right up and said hi to the owner of Bourbons Bistro and nodded at Mike Veach. He pulled up a chair, sat down, and grabbed a glass. He looked at what on the table. He spotted a nice bottle, picked it up and poured some in his glass. It was then the owner of Bourbons Bistro introduced Fred to the rest of us. It kinda surprised me a bit. I’d heard a little about Fred. I sure didn’t  picture him the way he appeared that night. 

[flahute]

15 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

Here’s Fred’s story. 
https://reservenationalguard.com/reserve-guard-veterans/former-iraq-war-photojournalist-becomes-world-renowned-bourbon-expert/#:~:text=Fred Minnick for Louisville Magazine,a photojournalist deployed to Iraq.

 

 I met Fred in Louisville. I was with @Vosgar on the way to one of our SB’s get togethers in Bardstown. We met @BourbonJoe, @fricky, @p_elliott, Mike Veach, and a couple of others at Bourbons Bistro to grab a bite to eat. After we ate, we were outside on the deck with the owner of Bourbons Bistro having some nice pours and cigars. Up walked this kinda scruffy looking guy. He had on a checked (flannel?) open collared shirt. No ascot. His hair was unkempt and looked slightly greasy, and it looked like he hadn’t shaved in a couple of days. He walked right up and said hi to the owner of Bourbons Bistro and nodded at Mike Veach. He pulled up a chair, sat down, and grabbed a glass. He looked at what on the table. He spotted a nice bottle, picked it up and poured some in his glass. It was then the owner of Bourbons Bistro introduced Fred to the rest of us. It kinda surprised me a bit. I’d heard a little about Fred. I sure didn’t  picture him the way he appeared that night. 

That was from the time that he was still struggling quite a bit from PTSD he brought back from the war. He's a very different guy now.

[PaulO]

On 3/3/2024 at 7:21 PM, flahute said:

Fred's video summed up:

-customers are not interested in all the new brands anymore and just buy what they like so that part of the boom appears to be slowing. 

-the little distillers aren't selling as much product (related to the above) and some have stopped making new distillate.

-overall, the bourbon. category is doing just fine and the big distillers are doing just fine.

The little distillers that have stopped making new distillate - sounds like customers don't want to buy what they are making.  I suspect those operations go out of business, if they can't turn it around.

[mbroo5880i]

I disagree with Fred. There are several "little" distillers doing great things.  As they say "the cream rises to the top."  If they produce a quality product at a reasonable price, they will be fine. Here is looking at you, Still Austin and Hard Truth.

Edited March 7, 2024 by mbroo5880i

[Kepler]

I think the biggest challenge that small or craft distillers have is that they really struggle for repeat customers.  Too many "one and done" single bottle purchases.  I know I've purchased several new craft whiskies once, but due to the often (but not always) poor value proposition compared to legacy distillery products, I don't often go back for a second or third purchase.  If they don't break through with loyal repeat customers, it's a dead end street for them.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2024 by Kepler

[flahute]

On 3/6/2024 at 6:48 PM, mbroo5880i said:

I disagree with Fred. There are several "little" distillers doing great things.  As they say "the cream rises to the top."  If they produce a quality product at a reasonable price, they will be fine. Here is looking at you, Still Austin and Hard Truth.

How can you disagree with him when he was speaking in general terms and was not specific by name? Something can be true at a general level while also allowing for exceptions.

[mbroo5880i]

10 hours ago, flahute said:

How can you disagree with him when he was speaking in general terms and was not specific by name? Something can be true at a general level while also allowing for exceptions.

 

Fair enough. 

 

A better statement might have been "I understand what he is saying. However,  in my area more than a handful have proven successful and seem to be doing quite well. "

 

I get that most new craft distillers fail but there are many in my area that have passed the 5 to 10 year mark and have a loyal following.  

 

 

 

[Harry in WashDC]

Anecdotally, I think Fred and a few of the commenters above might have a point.  Today, I opened a bunkered JB BIB.  Sipping on it reminded me that I hadn’t seen one in a store for awhile.  Got thinking about that and went to the website.  The bonded is not listed, and neither are all those somewhat LEs they used to release in the perfume bottles.  They have lots of flavored stuff but only basics for bourbon.  Cutting back on variations of traditional bourbons but offering more flavored whiskey and seltzer and canned cocktails. Stores near me have lots of the legacy brand expressions like Turkey, HH expressions, and even BT at their new, higher prices but fewer LEs during the year.  I see fewer fancy labels of ndp products, and when I see them, there are usually a few bottles of each, not a case-worth, in corners and on high shelves rather than front and easily reachable.  Some of the newer distillers we’ve talked about here and generally liked are usually findable, but just as many we sort of picked on have disappeared.  New names also don’t appear as often as they did when this thread started.  Prices seem to have stabilized although my head still pulls up what I paid in 2012.

 

All my nonobjective opinion and fuzzy observation.

[Richnimrod]

6 hours ago, Harry in WashDC said:

Anecdotally, I think Fred and a few of the commenters above might have a point.  Today, I opened a bunkered JB BIB.  Sipping on it reminded me that I hadn’t seen one in a store for awhile.  Got thinking about that and went to the website.  The bonded is not listed, and neither are all those somewhat LEs they used to release in the perfume bottles.  They have lots of flavored stuff but only basics for bourbon.  Cutting back on variations of traditional bourbons but offering more flavored whiskey and seltzer and canned cocktails. Stores near me have lots of the legacy brand expressions like Turkey, HH expressions, and even BT at their new, higher prices but fewer LEs during the year.  I see fewer fancy labels of ndp products, and when I see them, there are usually a few bottles of each, not a case-worth, in corners and on high shelves rather than front and easily reachable.  Some of the newer distillers we’ve talked about here and generally liked are usually findable, but just as many we sort of picked on have disappeared.  New names also don’t appear as often as they did when this thread started.  Prices seem to have stabilized although my head still pulls up what I paid in 2012.

 

All my nonobjective opinion and fuzzy observation.

 

I can't find anything you mention here to disagree with, Harry.    It seems (for Beam, at least) that the lure of quicker/higher profits outweighs the pursuit of marketing more traditional brands.    That isn't a bad business strategy.   It may not help those of us looking for quality; but, it makes boardrooms & shareholders very happy.     

It also seems to suggest continued pressure on limited inventory industry-wide, as well some likely consolidation among producers.   Both of which have been predicted, discussed and apparently remain as issues, or even continue to accelerate the 'Boom'.   When will we see the 'Bust'?   ...Or is that not an inevitability?   Personally, I'm somewhat amazed we haven't seem some signs of the 'Boom' slowing, at least a little.   I  guess when there is an apparently unlimited demand from the market, the 'Boom' will continue, and we will continue to suffer some of the effects, while (maybe) enjoying some others.   Keep those seatbelts buckled.

[Jazzhead]

On 3/7/2024 at 10:00 PM, Kepler said:

I think the biggest challenge that small or craft distillers have is that they really struggle for repeat customers.  Too many "one and done" single bottle purchases.  I know I've purchased several new craft whiskies once, but due to the often (but not always) poor value proposition compared to legacy distillery products, I don't often go back for a second or third purchase.  If they don't break through with loyal repeat customers, it's a dead end street for them.

 

 

I agree that winning that second (and third and fourth) sale are essential to the success of a craft distiller.    There are a few that have won my repeat business, such as FEW, Starlight and BBC, but far more that have been "one and done".    At this point,   I won't consider a craft bourbon unless it's a straight,  and I'll usually take a chance if it's a BIB at a reasonable price.    That's my basic advice -  put out a BIB and don't charge eighty bucks for it.   If you do,  I'll buy your product once,  and then it's up to the quality to shine through.