Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Anwalt]

Fred described me. Granted, I'm waaaaay newer than most of you. But then again, it's guys like me who've been screwing up the market for the Get Off My Lawn crowd (with respect, that's "You All").

 

I have slowed down on buying. Granted, that's not saying much given just how much I did buy for the first 2 years. But I definitely have a much better sense of what I like. You guys were the ones who caused me to be cautious with start ups/NDP's. And also provided some delightful exceptions to the rule. If I do not read it here, hear it from a bourbon buddy I know & trust, or hear it from one of the few reviewers I follow, odds are very low that I'll try something new from an NDP. There's just way too much stuff I know is good and I am super happy with. Indeed, some recommendations made here have gone unrealized simply because I don't drink all that much (2 oz each weekday, more on weekends, less when traveling) and I love going back to the ones I know I really like. That last part is what Fred was talking about.

 

Anymore, I get bottles from my regular sources and am not hunting for new sources. Though that hunting was a good bit of fun, what with Y-chromosomes & all. I trade a fair amount for OWA/WSR back in Ohio. Then I use those bottles to get what I want, usually in KY. I like the "game" aspect of it. Ingestible, inebriating baseball cards. I also like the people I meet. Reminds me of gun culture.

 

I still have a lot to learn. I'm having a ton of fun doing so. My palate is a million miles ahead of where it was and still has millions more to go.

 

I would note that secondary is down by about 6 to 10%. Dunno if that is increased supply (especially of WFP and W12), drop in top-end demand ("super taters") or both...my gut says both. That, and some of the prices (even by my pretty bougie standards) have been rather excessive (e.g., the MMCA and 4R 35th when they first came out and even now, etc.).

 

I do talk to a few people in various businesses (I have a lot of clients who do interesting things). They say sales of NDP's are down, and by a lot. With a few exceptions, most of which have been named as being exceptional here.

 

This piece on Barrell's woes strikes me as truthy for NDP's as a whole. And a bit surprising, since they are, in my view, one of the Worthy NDP's: 

 

 

 

[Kepler]

12 hours ago, Jazzhead said:

...

I won't consider a craft bourbon unless it's a straight,  and I'll usually take a chance if it's a BIB at a reasonable price.    That's my basic advice -  put out a BIB and don't charge eighty bucks for it.   If you do,  I'll buy your product once,  and then it's up to the quality to shine through.   

 

Very solid advice for any craft producer.  Bonded is the best place for them to start. 

 

[Skinsfan1311]

18 hours ago, Kepler said:

 

Very solid advice for any craft producer.  Bonded is the best place for them to start. 

 

New Riff comes to mind....

[mbroo5880i]

On 3/20/2024 at 2:30 PM, Anwalt said:

I have slowed down on buying. 

 

Sorry for editing your post to the above.

 

So says the man who has clients and friends who buys and mules for him on a daily basis.

 

That's like Pablo Escobar saying "I have slowed down on my daily involvement in my business.  Yet, business is good."  

 

Tongue-in-cheek buddy.  Even though you are an Ohio State fan, you are pretty cool.  

[mbroo5880i]

23 hours ago, Kepler said:

 

Very solid advice for any craft producer.  Bonded is the best place for them to start. 

 

 

I agree 100%

 

@Jazzheadand @Kepler Solid perspective.  Straight bourbon, preferrably BIB, decent price provides great incentive to try.  Enjoyment provides great incentive for a repeat purchase.

 

I have found several "craft" distillers that I enjoy.  New Riff, Still Austin, Woodinville, Hard Truth, Chattanooga.  I know they can't match the QPR of the majors but that's ok.  Given today's market where it is difficult to differentiate and the annual release are allocated, I am happy to seek single barrel offerings and craft bourbons and ryes.  It makes me feel like Magellan or, maybe Aldous Huxley, as is it is a Brave New World.

 

Honestly, I have stopped thinking in terms of major and craft distillers.  It is whiskey.  If I like it, I buy it. 

Edited March 22 by mbroo5880i

[Anwalt]

26 minutes ago, mbroo5880i said:

 

Sorry for editing your post to the above.

 

So says the man who has clients and friends who buys and mules for him on a daily basis.

 

That's like Pablo Escobar saying "I have slowed down on my daily involvement in my business.  Yet, business is good."  

 

Tongue-in-cheek buddy.  Even though you are an Ohio State fan, you are pretty cool.  

 

All taken in the friendly spirit ya always offer it in, ya darned Hoosier! (Cheap) Valentine's Day card on the way....

 

Funny you mention it. Some friends are in Australia and just offered to bring 8 or so bottles....ain't gonna say no! 

[Kepler]

On 3/21/2024 at 3:22 PM, Skinsfan1311 said:

New Riff comes to mind....

That is a good one.

[geclbxf]

On 3/22/2024 at 11:13 PM, Kepler said:

That is a good one.

Peerless and BBC are in this group for me for sure.

[lcpfratn]

I have seen some significant price reductions on certain Barrell/Stellum products recently along with significant reductions in the price of Bardstown American Highway. I’m not sure if this was solely a distributor action or not, but I suspect some involvement by the distilleries with this too. Too many products are just overpriced, and sitting on shelves, so I think we’re going to start seeing more of this type of thing happening…and sooner than later. I’m also starting to see allocations on some legacy brand products improving and some things actually coming off allocation. Is the boom over?…maybe not, but I’m starting to see some cracks in the foundation. 

[Kepler]

47 minutes ago, lcpfratn said:

I have seen some significant price reductions on certain Barrell/Stellum products recently along with significant reductions in the price of Bardstown American Highway. I’m not sure if this was solely a distributor action or not, but I suspect some involvement by the distilleries with this too. Too many products are just overpriced, and sitting on shelves, so I think we’re going to start seeing more of this type of thing happening…and sooner than later. I’m also starting to see allocations on some legacy brand products improving and some things actually coming off allocation. Is the boom over?…maybe not, but I’m starting to see some cracks in the foundation. 

 

I agree; I'm seeing some of the same things.

 

[aquavite]

I'm way too new to thing thing anyway to be tracking pricing, etc.  

 

About the only thing dramatic enough to make me believe prices are coming down is if the Pappy's drop of the secondary market are are sold only at MSRP!

 

Of course, that's also a function of "distribution and demand," but....

 

 

[Double C's]

12 hours ago, Kepler said:

 

I agree; I'm seeing some of the same things.

 

I concur as well. I am seeing more of the previously harder to get Heaven Hill products showing up and being more widely available. Some even with price reductions as well. Now if the same thing starts to happen with the BT portfolio in my area, then that will be a stronger indicator that the bubble may be popping.

[flahute]

17 hours ago, lcpfratn said:

I have seen some significant price reductions on certain Barrell/Stellum products recently along with significant reductions in the price of Bardstown American Highway. I’m not sure if this was solely a distributor action or not, but I suspect some involvement by the distilleries with this too. Too many products are just overpriced, and sitting on shelves, so I think we’re going to start seeing more of this type of thing happening…and sooner than later. I’m also starting to see allocations on some legacy brand products improving and some things actually coming off allocation. Is the boom over?…maybe not, but I’m starting to see some cracks in the foundation. 

Yep - Barrell had a tough year in 2023. In November we did a barrel pick with them in their brand new blending and bottling facility - really nice space. I'm not sure if you saw/heard but late in the year they laid off most of their sales staff and then early this year that facility was listed for sale. It is now off the market so they must have found a cash injection but they are clearly struggling. 

[b1gcountry]

The Bourbon market is not in a bubble, it has been expanding relentlessly because there are more and more Bourbon drinkers that enjoy it. They have established a large consumer base and the market could plateau, and releases may become more obtainable IF suppliers allow their supply to catch up with demand (ahem...buffalo trace). We are not going to see a bust sort of situation though. Consolidation we could see. Plateaus we could see. Shifting tastes to adopt more tequila or rum is also very possible.

[smokinjoe]

Increased availability may not necessarily be a sign of the boom ending, but rather a result of increased production finally coming of age to catch up to the crazy demand that has built up over the past few decades. 

 

[Kepler]

On 5/16/2024 at 9:30 PM, lcpfratn said:

I have seen some significant price reductions on certain Barrell/Stellum products recently along with significant reductions in the price of Bardstown American Highway. I’m not sure if this was solely a distributor action or not, but I suspect some involvement by the distilleries with this too. Too many products are just overpriced, and sitting on shelves, so I think we’re going to start seeing more of this type of thing happening…and sooner than later. I’m also starting to see allocations on some legacy brand products improving and some things actually coming off allocation. Is the boom over?…maybe not, but I’m starting to see some cracks in the foundation. 

 

On 5/17/2024 at 2:42 PM, flahute said:

Yep - Barrell had a tough year in 2023. In November we did a barrel pick with them in their brand new blending and bottling facility - really nice space. I'm not sure if you saw/heard but late in the year they laid off most of their sales staff and then early this year that facility was listed for sale. It is now off the market so they must have found a cash injection but they are clearly struggling. 

 

Along those lines, today I pulled the trigger on a bottle of Barrell Vantage bourbon because it has been reduced by 20 bucks.  The Vantage is one I've read good reviews on but never got around to purchasing it.  The discount gave me a reason to finally try it.  Similarly, I recently purchased a Stellum black Rye ("Fibanacci" blend) at a hefty discount. 

 

[Kepler]

On 5/17/2024 at 2:42 PM, flahute said:

Yep - Barrell had a tough year in 2023. In November we did a barrel pick with them in their brand new blending and bottling facility - really nice space. I'm not sure if you saw/heard but late in the year they laid off most of their sales staff and then early this year that facility was listed for sale. It is now off the market so they must have found a cash injection but they are clearly struggling. 

 

I had not actually heard that about BCS -- I knew one of their chief brand guys left, but hadn't heard more details.  Didn't know they listed the facility for sale.  I'm a huge fan of their bourbon product so it would make me sad if they don't make it.  Their business model (super-premium products offered continuously in very small individual batches) isn't really built to thrive during downturns in the market.  These luxury brands need a solid lower priced 'flagship' product to hang their hat on.  Barrell recently came out with their "Foundation" bourbon, which is a great offering, but I fear it might have been a too little/too late situation.  Time will tell I guess.

 

[jvd99]

Personally, the boom peaked for me a while ago. I stopped actively hunting a few years ago as it turned into a futile endeavor. Since then, I've stopped buying most anything, except I'm still part of my LS's barrel pick club, which gives us access to the LE's, but that's it.

 

I can't keep up with all the craft brands coming online and the majors aren't coming out with anything that's interesting, attainable and reasonably priced.

 

I curated my bunker over 12 years, and I've started pulling from it as my primary source for unopened scotch and bourbons.

[FasterHorses]

Joe passed on a blantons gold and eht single barrel. If the booms not over its very close.