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Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked


BigBoldBully

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10 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

This is a good point. I’ve never done 13 hours and likely never would. But I’ve waited in line for a couple hours a couple times and I have had good experiences in terms of the socializing aspects. Often a few fun sample bottles being passed around, I’ve made a few new friends that I’ve shared local intel with, and I’ve run into people I know and caught up with them. The last time I went I got nothing from the lottery aspect, but all that other stuff actually made it probably worthwhile for me. 

I was there as well with joeterp and a few others from here I’ve noticed. 
 

it really wasn’t terrible overall. I arrived at 4:30 and was about #30 in line. Although it was incredibly cold, hanging with all of the other bourbon fans really made the time pass quickly. 
 

it’s not all about the bourbon but the people as well. 

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51 minutes ago, ptman2000 said:

I was there as well with joeterp and a few others from here I’ve noticed. 
 

it really wasn’t terrible overall. I arrived at 4:30 and was about #30 in line. Although it was incredibly cold, hanging with all of the other bourbon fans really made the time pass quickly. 
 

it’s not all about the bourbon but the people as well. 

You were right near a buddy of mine who was #34, so you may have seen me as I stopped by him a few times.  Glad you had a good time and hopefully you got lucky in one of the lottos too.

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Signs the boom is not anywhere near its peak: when SB members, of all people, are having a splendid conversation about their adventures of standing in line overnight for a whiskey raffle. Lol. (please no hate mail, I come here in peace ?)

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10 hours ago, Kepler said:

Signs the boom is not anywhere near its peak: when SB members, of all people, are having a splendid conversation about their adventures of standing in line overnight for a whiskey raffle. Lol. (please no hate mail, I come here in peace ?)

*during winter

 

Its one thing if you live down south and something entirely different if it’s mid-winter in the Boston area. You’d have to be crazy like @GeeTen to do it. I’m a transplanted Florida boy so you won’t catch me out there. Hah

Edited by mal00768
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On 1/18/2020 at 8:25 AM, KyleCBreese said:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/mgp-ingredients-stock-is-plunging-on-disappointing-whiskey-sales-numbers-51579279726

 

MGP reports weak sales numbers. Seems like the aged barrels are too expensive and the young stuff is sitting on store shelves everywhere.

This is interesting. Looks like their "other inventory" has climbed from 64mm in Q2 2017 to 82mm in Q2 2018 to 104mm in Q3 2019. I didn't look into how they value that but I imagine there will be some desire to move some of that.

 

Stock is off more than 60% from its all time highs.

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On 1/19/2020 at 2:44 PM, flahute said:

You mean by making good whiskey that everyone wants to the point that there are more buyers than supply?

 

Maybe he means by expanding production 500%?

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On 1/18/2020 at 8:25 AM, KyleCBreese said:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/mgp-ingredients-stock-is-plunging-on-disappointing-whiskey-sales-numbers-51579279726

 

MGP reports weak sales numbers. Seems like the aged barrels are too expensive and the young stuff is sitting on store shelves everywhere.

Are they sourcing SAOS again?  I wonder if falling short of their projected sales played a role in reaching an agreement with Old Scout.

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4 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

 

Maybe he means by expanding production 500%?

500% is weak. I don't think they are taking this seriously enough.

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50 minutes ago, afmadd said:

Are they sourcing SAOS again?  I wonder if falling short of their projected sales played a role in reaching an agreement with Old Scout.

SAOS has MGP barrels but they are still aging and not ready yet.

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11 minutes ago, flahute said:

SAOS has MGP barrels but they are still aging and not ready yet.

A local store just did two SAOS MGP picks. They were 5 & 6 year. Bottled in Bond can correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't taste them because I already had some samples and was driving. I took a whiff though. The 6 year smelled like cherries.

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3 minutes ago, Bbstout said:

A local store just did two SAOS MGP picks. They were 5 & 6 year. Bottled in Bond can correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't taste them because I already had some samples and was driving. I took a whiff though. The 6 year smelled like cherries.

Thanks for the info. SA said on twitter that they were waiting for them to age but clearly they are releasing some now based on your local.

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To be honest they will have to be special for me to buy as I remember the old double digits old scout. 

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20 minutes ago, Bbstout said:

A local store just did two SAOS MGP picks. They were 5 & 6 year. Bottled in Bond can correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't taste them because I already had some samples and was driving. I took a whiff though. The 6 year smelled like cherries.

I've seen these at a local store as well. I think they're bottled at 99 proof, but that may be wrong. 

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5 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

 

Maybe he means by expanding production 500%?

TBT - you will find this interesting as it pertains to the increased demand for BT products. Check out the graph showing the increase in visitors to the distillery.

 https://www.gobourbon.com/bourbon-lovers-heading-to-buffalo-trace/

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2 hours ago, flahute said:

Thanks for the info. SA said on twitter that they were waiting for them to age but clearly they are releasing some now based on your local.

The owner of the local @Bbstout referenced was there last week. He picked two barrels, one of them getting bottled soon as a 5 year. The second barrel is going to be bottle later this year, and it will get to the 6 year by then, isn’t there quite yet. I tried them both and was pretty surprised how different they were but they did both taste like MGP to me. He didn’t have the details on which MGP mashbill either one was, so it’s certainly possible that the two barrels could have been different mashbills too.

 

I asked him if he had an option for rye, and he said they wouldn’t do any rye barrels currently. Sad since that’s what I really want from them again.....

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Oh I am very pleased tonight to read that SA is putting MGP in the rackhouses again.

 

MGP and those particular houses just work so well together.

 

If MGP is coming back down to reality with demand and pricing then let's hope Maxwelton rack houses get stuffed to the gills with that sweet stuff.

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36 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

Oh I am very pleased tonight to read that SA is putting MGP in the rackhouses again.

 

MGP and those particular houses just work so well together.

 

If MGP is coming back down to reality with demand and pricing then let's hope Maxwelton rack houses get stuffed to the gills with that sweet stuff.

This post deserves more than a "thumb up".  It captures the warm spots in the tummies of at least a half-decade's worth of SA fans.  In spite of a near miss with Big Level (which I bought based on the promise of Yearling), their NDP blends and barrel selections (Contradiction and the various SAOS releases among those) were and continue to be impressive.  Is John Little still there?  I sure hope so.  SOMEbody there is a Master Blender as I first concluded circa 2015 when Yeti was posting from WV.  I still have some bunkered (like, maybe three last time I looked).  This means I can start drinking them.

 

EDIT - Just checked - ONE 10YO, THREE SAOS (two of which are signed by Sarah).  Those'll last at least until March.:rolleyes:

Edited by Harry in WashDC
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TBT - you will find this interesting as it pertains to the increased demand for BT products. Check out the graph showing the increase in visitors to the distillery.
 https://www.gobourbon.com/bourbon-lovers-heading-to-buffalo-trace/


That’s charts insane, 3X growth in visitors in six years. BT is clearly geniuses when it comes to marketing and making good whiskey that people, particularly people getting into whiskey can really enjoy. They just seem to be really bad at capacity management or demand forecasting. That or really good at playing games with supply and demand.
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Oh I am very pleased tonight to read that SA is putting MGP in the rackhouses again.
 
MGP and those particular houses just work so well together.
 
If MGP is coming back down to reality with demand and pricing then let's hope Maxwelton rack houses get stuffed to the gills with that sweet stuff.


Odd place to put it but one of local stores was able to do a recent tour of MGP. I thought they didn’t do this? The place seemed actually very cool, hidden doors with prohibition nostalgia, etc. would be cool to check out.
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1 hour ago, HoustonNit said:

 


That’s charts insane, 3X growth in visitors in six years. BT is clearly geniuses when it comes to marketing and making good whiskey that people, particularly people getting into whiskey can really enjoy. They just seem to be really bad at capacity management or demand forecasting. That or really good at playing games with supply and demand.

 

Don't you ever get tired of repeating this same old rant against BT?  You continually bitch about their management and that the other big boys haven't had any problem keeping up with demand. Those other distilleries have been major players forever. BT, on the other hand, was practically non existent a mere 28 years ago when Sazarac bought them. They're very fortunate that a number of their products have really taken off during this boom, and if you'd be realistic, who could have ever forecast the extent of this growth?  Especially when an unexpected cult like following erupts? A distillery can't just decide to up production and have aged whiskey available immediately, and you know that. So how are they reacting? They're in the middle of a $1.2 Billion expansion. What else would you have them do?? It appears that you're just one of those people who hate anyone or any company who becomes successful.

 

I know you like to post comments to get reactions from those of us who are big fans of BT, but isn't it time to give it a rest?

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Don't you ever get tired of repeating this same old rant against BT?  You continually bitch about their management and that the other big boys haven't had any problem keeping up with demand. Those other distilleries have been major players forever. BT, on the other hand, was practically non existent a mere 28 years ago when Sazarac bought them. They're very fortunate that a number of their products have really taken off during this boom, and if you'd be realistic, who could have ever forecast the extent of this growth?  Especially when an unexpected cult like following erupts? A distillery can't just decide to up production and have aged whiskey available immediately, and you know that. So how are they reacting? They're in the middle of a $1.2 Billion expansion. What else would you have them do?? It appears that you're just one of those people who hate anyone or any company who becomes successful.
 
I know you like to post comments to get reactions from those of us who are big fans of BT, but isn't it time to give it a rest?


I agree with most of this but the forever comment is a bit much. The last time that bourbon was a big player on the domestic market what became BT had a brand that shared the market as the biggest seller with BF Early Times.

IMG_8841.jpg

I’m glad that BT is a successful producer but to not admit they didn’t anticipate the popularity of there product or are not playing games with there distribution, or both is a bit much blind fan boy love.
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It does seem to be a problem that only Sazerac have.

 

Bottom line, the business world is a results-based endeavor ...

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9 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

I’m glad that BT is a successful producer but to not admit they didn’t anticipate the popularity of there product or are not playing games with there distribution, or both is a bit much blind fan boy love.

 

I can live with my "blind fan boy love" of BT. :) Much better than being cranky and pissy about them.

 

BTW......should HH have anticipated McKenna becoming whiskey of the year and produced a lot more of it 10yrs before the award so there wouldn't have been a shortage of it?

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40 minutes ago, Vosgar said:

I can live with my "blind fan boy love" of BT. :) Much better than being cranky and pissy about them.

Yeah, like you’re an old guy who already has plenty of other shit to be cranky and pissy about!!  :D  

 

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11 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

Yeah, like you’re an old guy who already has plenty of other shit to be cranky and pissy about!!  :D  

 

Who......me???  LMAO!

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