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Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked


BigBoldBully

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On ‎4‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 7:46 PM, Old Dusty said:

At the end of 2016 they were low on available barrels. We had 6 rolled out w several duplicate recipes. And we were only allowed one barrel. A friend was there the next day w another retailer and they had our five leftovers and one "new" barrel to choose from. Compare that to the end of 2015 and we had 10 to choose from and could have bought all ten if we wanted. I'm guessing your contact meant only 6 selection groups per month. And likely w a limited number of barrels to choose from. The days of all ten recipes being available are history. And so is the quality of the cohort. The floor on age was lowered from 9 to 8 years just to keep the program going. 

 

Seems to have loosened up a bit. We were there picking in February and had 10 barrels to choose from (A couple of duplicate recipes. We had no OBSO or OBSK) and were able to buy 2 barrels of BP. Age ranged from 8y1m to 10y1m. Plus we had 6 younger OBSV barrels (all about 8y or less I think) from which we could pick a SB 100 pf OBSV. They have apparently just resumed that program but with mostly younger whiskey.

 

Another store in town seems to have recently gotten an OBSV 100 pf at 7y9m and a BP OESQ at 8y1m. Our picks are arriving this week. Don't know if I will have them in hand before I leave for the Sampler. 

 

 

 

Edited by tanstaafl2
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Was just reading on r/bourbon today that there was a label application to basically re-import and rebottle a quantity of Stagg Jr. That that is the best financial option for the owner of the parcel/BT is probably a good indication that the boom has not yet peaked.


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22 hours ago, TexanBrad said:

Was just reading on r/bourbon today that there was a label application to basically re-import and rebottle a quantity of Stagg Jr. That that is the best financial option for the owner of the parcel/BT is probably a good indication that the boom has not yet peaked.


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I'm confused. Wouldn't that mean that the fabled overseas growth isn't materializing in the manner that was predicted?  Stagg Jr is a bottle I can find on the shelf regularly. If it's selling better here than in export countries sales aren't growing as rapidly as expected. 

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I'm confused. Wouldn't that mean that the fabled overseas growth isn't materializing in the manner that was predicted?  Stagg Jr is a bottle I can find on the shelf regularly. If it's selling better here than in export countries sales aren't growing as rapidly as expected. 

I kind of read that the same way. Thank you for coherently detailing my "huh?".


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I'm confused. Wouldn't that mean that the fabled overseas growth isn't materializing in the manner that was predicted?  Stagg Jr is a bottle I can find on the shelf regularly. If it's selling better here than in export countries sales aren't growing as rapidly as expected. 


I guess it's supposed to read that they have limited stock domestic. Low enough that it makes economic sense to ship back domestically and rebottle.

However it seems like a clearer indication that they way overestimated the overseas market.
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I guess it's supposed to read that they have limited stock domestic. Low enough that it makes economic sense to ship back domestically and rebottle.

However it seems like a clearer indication that they way overestimated the overseas market.


The speculation that sounds most likely to me is that they sold it to a distributor/importer abroad who anticipated a US like rush on it like in some places domestically, and instead of dumping it at cost, was given an offer that worked out better to ship it back here, with enough margin for BT to relabel and rebottle it and still make a tidy profit. That would tell me that people domestically are still throwing stupid money for good, not great, juice. The boom is done IMHO when that stops.


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17 hours ago, TexanBrad said:

 


The speculation that sounds most likely to me is that they sold it to a distributor/importer abroad who anticipated a US like rush on it like in some places domestically, and instead of dumping it at cost, was given an offer that worked out better to ship it back here, with enough margin for BT to relabel and rebottle it and still make a tidy profit. That would tell me that people domestically are still throwing stupid money for good, not great, juice. The boom is done IMHO when that stops.


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Of course, that label was surrendered, which makes it seem like that didn't make financial sense to them after all.

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A store near me sold one each of 2011, 2014 & 2015 FR SmBLE for $1400 before tax - so the boom isn't over by any means because that's just insane 

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Thought about starting a new thread but, upon reflection decided this post does not merit its own thread as it is just a rumination.

 

THIS is sort of a mea culpa as I am admitting that I am, indeed, contributing to the Bubble and that I now think the bubble has awhile to run.  I've been thinking about this, fuzzily, for several weeks.  I think what's bugging me about "THIS " is that THIS is finally identifiable if not nameable.  While I'm awaiting the start of the Nats vs. the Phillies in Philly, here's some chaff to pick through.

 

In prior posts, I've descried the "shiny object" tendencies of the majors to release LEs that none of us see or to discontinue traditional brands (Old Fitz BIB which I haven't seen for two years) which they can repackage at higher prices and lower proofs (Larceny which, I admit, I do like and buy, especially in the Summer when a wheated @ 92 proof can be consumed all day IM not so HO).  BUT - as the photo below shows, I am an active member of the Shiny Object (hereinafter "SO") consumer pool.  I have concluded this is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Just today, as thunderstorms rolled through so I was trapped in the house, I finished off the dregs of my one bottle of WT RB 112.8 and refreshed the glass with WT RB 108.2 - each with a small ice cube as it wasn't yet 5PM.  I noticed (as the photo shows) that I have far more comparatively limited releases on the shelves than I do bottom shelfers even though I drink far more bottom and midshelf stuff than LEs.  This really surprised me as I have stockpiled OGB BIB, OGD 114, VOB BIB "6" which is hard to find here, some ER 10YR neck label, and JB BIB.

 

I am admitting to SO attraction.  It has been about six days since my last purchase, and I think it was sale-priced JB BIB and OF 1897.  Did you catch that? OF 1897!!  A major distillery took some of their tens of thousands of bonded barrels and blended them and put a fancy label on the product AND GOT ME TO BUY MULTIPLES of it at about double the price of what bondeds used to go for.

 

Why don't I feel BAD about this?  Because I love OF 1897.

 

I guess what I'm saying is: I really don't care if there IS a bubble; I am loving the heck out of what I am finding on the shelves.  McKenzie Rye?  WHo'd have thought I'd like it in spite of Ritt being cheaper per ounce, and I LOVE Ritt.

 

Game starts in 4 minutes.  BYE!

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CRAP!!  Forgot the photo.  HERE -

IMG_3359.JPG

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20 minutes ago, Clueby said:

Don't grab that bottle of Liquid Plumber by mistake!

 

 

the contents of which could be mistaken for old overholt........

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57 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

 While I'm awaiting the start of the Nats vs. the Phillies in Philly, here's some chaff to pick through.

 

That catch Herrera just made on that shot up the alley by Heisey is going to drive me to drink. :D

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I've got to say that I've had SO syndrome for several years - but always at retail so I'm not adding fuel to the secondary 

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1 hour ago, DCFan said:

 

That catch Herrera just made on that shot up the alley by Heisey is going to drive me to drink. :D

Looks like Blake Treinen wants to keep it interesting.  Talk about driving me to drink.  And with that, I'm going to the kitchen to do the dishes while sipping on a 4R SiB PS (don't know which one, yet) while the game plays in the background.

 

I sure hope the Nats haven't peaked.

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24 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

 

I sure hope the Nats haven't peaked.

LOL. I remember years ago when the Indians were perennially bad, opening day, Lettermen in his monologue says "Today was opening day for Major League Baseball and the Cleveland Indians have already been mathematically eliminated from post-season play."

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^^^^^while the 20 fans that were actually in the 'old' stadium made sure that they sat behind a column, so that they couldn't see the game (or at least couldn't be seen at the game:)). 

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6 hours ago, Harry in WashDC said:

Looks like Blake Treinen wants to keep it interesting.  Talk about driving me to drink.  And with that, I'm going to the kitchen to do the dishes while sipping on a 4R SiB PS (don't know which one, yet) while the game plays in the background.

 

I sure hope the Nats haven't peaked.

 

I'm feeling so good about the Nats that I think I'm going to win the lottery the Va ABC just said is coming for the 25 yo PVW

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10 hours ago, Paddy said:

^^^^^while the 20 fans that were actually in the 'old' stadium made sure that they sat behind a column, so that they couldn't see the game (or at least couldn't be seen at the game:)). 

Hahaha, I remember those bad seats.

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In Kentucky I don't see it even close to ending.   Stuff that is on the shelfs other places never makes it to the shelf here and you camp out for everything.  People clear shelves of anything allocated bribe employees for tips and flip it the next day.  If you want anything other than shelf turds. Good luck unless you pay secondary .   

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CRAP!!  Forgot the photo.  HERE -
IMG_3359.thumb.JPG.9b26ec11f6f37d990b6baeefcc7e4f3b.JPG


If your sharing can you show pics of trash can Bourbon, and other hidden bottles, behind the door, in the dining table leaf?
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8 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 


If your sharing can you show pics of trash can Bourbon, and other hidden bottles, behind the door, in the dining table leaf?

That SoComfort is my wife's; she likes it.  It has a black label because it is the 100 proof.  Don't tell her I swapped the 100 for the 70 proof years ago.  She had me create some cocktails using SC, and if I'm going to drink it, I at least want a buzz from it.  Also, the Liquid Plumber is NOT a mixer - rule is I can buy what I want as long as it doesn't take up her lower shelf space.  The LP just happened to be up there.  Up to the right behind the Bernheim and a Booker's is my ER 10 yr neck label & ASmith Bowman LE stash.  And, yeah, I can post pictures of the trash can OGD BIB etc., but I have to wait until she's asleep or she'll ask what the heck I doing creeping around the house in my underwear with a camera.

 

RE: Paddy and Steve - Baltimore's Memorial Stadium had some of those.  Before the move to Orioles Park at Camden Yards (about the only thing good Mr. Angelos has done for us other than Mr. Machado), I always seemed to sit in one.  Guess that's because they knew I was from WashDC.

 

Back on thread -- At least the LEs are being sold via lottery by the control states like Virginia.  Nonresidents like me can't participate in VA's lottery, but at least I know scalpers aren't getting them all.  To me, the sophistication of control state sales is yet another indication that the market has matured - they wouldn't spend the money for the system if the demand, and profit, weren't there.

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On ‎5‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 9:07 PM, jvd99 said:

I've got to say that I've had SO syndrome for several years - but always at retail so I'm not adding fuel to the secondary 

 

I certainly had SO syndrome when I started! I am better now...

 

OK, maybe I am only marginally so. But that is still better than I was! :wacko:

Edited by tanstaafl2
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There's no doubt I have SO syndrome, but I have a self imposed price point limit that keeps me somewhat in check.


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