Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[jvd99]

8 hours ago, lcpfratn said:

 I also think that even though the crafts and NDPs may only represent 1% of the volume output right now, I'm pretty sure they occupy a much larger percentage of shelf space on liquor store shelves and that percentage is growing.

 

Spot on observation.  To my eye, I'd guess most shelves have 20-30% craft garbage I've never heard of.  

[Jackinbox]

19 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

At least Castle And Key is doing good work, and saving some very precious bourbon history. I'm inclined to buy some of their stuff just for that.

 

They're not just buying MGP bulk and chucking it into mini-barrels with a cockamamy legend or hillbilly pioneer

 

I agree.  Castle And Key seems to be doing everything the right way and I'm sure I'll buy a bottle when the release their BIB.  

 

I take back what I said about $79.  I went back and listened again to Marianne Barnes' comments regarding price from an interview.  My memory was that she had said it would probably be less than $80, and I took that as meaning it would probably end up at $79.95.  After listening again I think she was suggesting that $80 would be too high for their standard BIB.  She mentioned there was a tipping point between "premium" and "ultra-premium" where your case volume drops dramatically and that they want to be below that line.  Of course we're still a few years away from official pricing, so we'll have to wait and see.  

 

It would be crazy to think they would be able to compete with Beam and HH on BIB pricing, but I'm hoping they can at least be in the range where I can afford to buy their stuff on a regular basis. 

[BourbonDude]

On 8/12/2017 at 9:15 PM, Harry in WashDC said:

Some discussion lately on millenial contributions to the BOOM.  After a half hour of browsing for stuff, I found only two places of interest.  The first, A New York Post article form Feb 2017, included this quote:  "Millennials continue to be interested in “authentic” consumer products like whiskeys, said David Ozgo, the group’s chief economist."  No additional or more detailed info was provided, and I couldn't find related info on the DISCUS website.  Full NYPost article is HERE: http://nypost.com/2017/02/07/millennials-are-drinking-a-lot-of-whiskey/

 

The other article IS on the DISCUS website and shows that the "suppliers" are profiting from the continuing boom, especially at the "super premium" level.  In 2003, "suppliers" shipped 2,972,000 9-liter cases ($148 mill) of Value product, 4,278,000 cases ($339 mill) of Premium, 5,823,000 ($768 mill) of Hi End Premium, and 332,000 cases ($63 mill) of Super Premium.  Compare that to 2016 - 3,677,000 cases ($217 mill) of Value, 5,648,000 cases ($598 mill) of Premium, 10,367,000,($1,833 mill) of Hi End Premium, and 2,061,000 cases ($467 mill) of Super Premium.  (Aggregate revenue includes Federal Excise Tax).

 

From 2011-2016, growth rates in case sales were 35.4% for Value, 21.8% for Premium, 33.2% for Hi End Premium, and 127.3% for Super Premium.

Growth rates in revenue were -----------------------45.3%    "     "    , 31.3%  "     "         , 44.2%  "   "   "       "        , and 140.9%  "      "         "       .

 

Note that Super Premium volume in 2003 was about one/eighth of Value sales and in 2016 was 2/3 Value sales.

Note that Super Premium revenue in 2003 was about 3/5 of Value revenue and in 2016 was TWICE Value sales.

 

All this is easier to see on the DISCUS tables at: http://www.discus.org/assets/1/7/Bourbon_and_Tennessee_Whiskey_2016.pdf

 

My takeaway?  Secondary market persons aren't the ONLY ones making money off the boom.  Also, it explains why MSRPs on our favorite Hi End Premiums and Super Premiums are going up.

Great information, thanks!

[Kepler]

Had dinner at a nice steakhouse with friends.  This was on display behind the counter.  This is why we can't get any of this stuff in stores.

 

 

[flahute]

13 minutes ago, Kepler said:

Had dinner at a nice steakhouse with friends.  This was on display behind the counter.  This is why we can't get any of this stuff in stores.

 

 

Yep.

Amazing the sheer number of little podunk places along with steakhouses and the like - not to mention the whiskey specific places - that have BTAC, Van Winkle, etc.

It's exploded. 

[Harry in WashDC]

15 hours ago, flahute said:

Yep.

Amazing the sheer number of little podunk places along with steakhouses and the like - not to mention the whiskey specific places - that have BTAC, Van Winkle, etc.

It's exploded. 

Steve - Just had a thought (yeah, is dangerous).  For some time now, I have not chased the LEs - laziness is primary although with so many good/great whiskeys out there I like at MSRP, I guess I'm a "value" shopper which includes the top shelf.  If I fall on an LE , I might buy it if it is close to MSRP, provided it is something I really want.  I saw your comment and realized WHY I've taken this approach at least since this thread started - When I go in a restaurant with a good bourbon/rye/Other American whiskey selection, I ALWAYS check the list.  If I see something LE I haven't tried, I'll try it.  While a very few tastes have moved me to look for my own expensive-but-available-without-sweat bottle, most of them are "Great but . . ."

 

Hence, I don't mind the retailers getting them as I likely would not buy a whole bottle anyway.  There are exceptions, but I can count them on less than one hand.  HHSB#2 is one.  I shall not mention the other two or three as I'm not sure what they are today.

[PaulO]

Yes to everything Harry said.

Here's the reality check.  Any moderately successful bar or restaurant with a liquor license spends a lot more money than an individual will (jokes aside).  Of course businesses get treated differently.  They buy tons of the basic stuff that most of us seldom buy.

[sbsbsb]

On 10/1/2017 at 12:50 AM, Kepler said:

Had dinner at a nice steakhouse with friends.  This was on display behind the counter.  This is why we can't get any of this stuff in stores.

 

 

This is a great illustration of where I think the "Ebay empties" are going.  You couldn't pay me to buy a pour from any of these.  6 different bottles of THH, all OPEN?  Are there really that many people wanting to do a sbs of a 2011 vs a 2012 THH?  Same with the GTS and ER17.  And there's NO REASON whatsoever to have those 5 open bottles of ORVW, it's all the same juice.  Same with the Lot B, VWFRR.  If you owned the joint, wouldn't you keep the other bottles sealed until needed?

[flahute]

23 minutes ago, sbsbsb said:

Are there really that many people wanting to do a sbs of a 2011 vs a 2012 THH?

Yes. You might be surprised how many there are.

[sbsbsb]

17 minutes ago, flahute said:

Yes. You might be surprised how many there are.

On this board, yes, and I get that.  But out there attending nice steakhouses?  I think not.  And it doesn't explain the multiple ORVW, Lot B's, or VWFRR's.  I'd love to see this place's bourbon menu.  

 

OP for this photo...curious, was this a chain steakhouse, or a locally-owned place?  And how long have they been in business?

[flahute]

18 minutes ago, sbsbsb said:

On this board, yes, and I get that.  But out there attending nice steakhouses?  I think not.  And it doesn't explain the multiple ORVW, Lot B's, or VWFRR's.  I'd love to see this place's bourbon menu.  

 

OP for this photo...curious, was this a chain steakhouse, or a locally-owned place?  And how long have they been in business?

This board is but a small fraction of bourbonia. Lots of people out there looking to buy on secondary want to know what year is "the best" before they buy. ORVW is different from year to year and there are plenty of people out there who are nerdy enough to again want to know which one they like best. The Van Winkle rye has been moving further and further away from being fully tanked product so it too is changing. All that aside, they could all be from the same year and the intent could be to show off. I've seen that too.

 

Though the place may only be "a steakhouse", you never know if the owner or bar manager is a whiskey nerd with ambitions to make their place a whiskey destination.

[sbsbsb]

12 minutes ago, flahute said:

This board is but a small fraction of bourbonia. Lots of people out there looking to buy on secondary want to know what year is "the best" before they buy. ORVW is different from year to year and there are plenty of people out there who are nerdy enough to again want to know which one they like best. The Van Winkle rye has been moving further and further away from being fully tanked product so it too is changing. All that aside, they could all be from the same year and the intent could be to show off. I've seen that too.

 

Though the place may only be "a steakhouse", you never know if the owner or bar manager is a whiskey nerd with ambitions to make their place a whiskey destination.

Will concede that last point, if you'll also concede my point that 1) It's not a selection you'd typically see at any on-premises establishment, and 2) You never know if the owner or manager is facing hard times in an incredibly failure-prone industry, and is refilling bottles with cheaper product that can easily be resold for $50-$100 PER OUNCE with little risk.

[jvd99]

1 hour ago, sbsbsb said:

This is a great illustration of where I think the "Ebay empties" are going.  You couldn't pay me to buy a pour from any of these.  

No way would I buy any of that.  The chances those bottles are refilled isn't worth it to me.  just like I'd never buy anything secondary that's easily faked, like the two cent plastic closure on FR bottles. 

[birdie]

I don't thing the Boom is even close to being over, I have been in the 'game' 3 yrs, and I have friends that are only just starting their journey, a local liquor store had 300+ calls with regards to the Four Roses 50th Anniversary bottle in about a 2 day period. Its only October and already the traffic chasing bottles is building up, and in the end as long as there are people in line, either physically or via the internet, willing to pay the money the Boom will continue.

[DCFan]

2 minutes ago, birdie said:

I don't thing the Boom is even close to being over,

The boom hasn’t even topped out yet so I find it funny to even discuss.

[HoustonNit]

No way would I buy any of that.  The chances those bottles are refilled isn't worth it to me.  just like I'd never buy anything secondary that's easily faked, like the two cent plastic closure on FR bottles. 

I assume this is Texas. From what I understand the TABC monitors this pretty closely, I have a feeling refilling bottles for resale is much more complicated than simply putting more hooch in the bottles.

[flahute]

3 hours ago, sbsbsb said:

Will concede that last point, if you'll also concede my point that 1) It's not a selection you'd typically see at any on-premises establishment, and 2) You never know if the owner or manager is facing hard times in an incredibly failure-prone industry, and is refilling bottles with cheaper product that can easily be resold for $50-$100 PER OUNCE with little risk.

Can't concede number one because I've seen places like that. Never had a quibble with number 2 because it's certainly possible. I'm just saying that the sight of a place/selection like this is not an automatic indicator. That said, with prices being what they are on these at some places, I'm not a buyer either.

[jvd99]

3 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

 

I assume this is Texas. From what I understand the TABC monitors this pretty closely, I have a feeling refilling bottles for resale is much more complicated than simply putting more hooch in the bottles.

 

My dad monitored his supply real close too, and his bottles were filled up with other stuff all the time when I was in high school.  

[HoustonNit]

My dad monitored his supply real close too, and his bottles were filled up with other stuff all the time when I was in high school.  

Haha nice!

Also apparently all the customers pay in cash and business is slow. Except when the drug money needs to be laundered then business is great but that money is laundered through over priced bottles of Champagne.

[Kepler]

5 hours ago, sbsbsb said:

On this board, yes, and I get that.  But out there attending nice steakhouses?  I think not.  And it doesn't explain the multiple ORVW, Lot B's, or VWFRR's.  I'd love to see this place's bourbon menu.  

 

OP for this photo...curious, was this a chain steakhouse, or a locally-owned place?  And how long have they been in business?

 

This is a true high end local chain that's been in  business a long time and has a great reputation.  They're legit and their whiskey collection is legit. Not fakes. 

The whiskey menu listed each vintage year separately in the menu.

Edited October 3, 2017 by Kepler
typo

[Kepler]

3 hours ago, birdie said:

I don't thing the Boom is even close to being over, I have been in the 'game' 3 yrs, and I have friends that are only just starting their journey, a local liquor store had 300+ calls with regards to the Four Roses 50th Anniversary bottle in about a 2 day period. Its only October and already the traffic chasing bottles is building up, and in the end as long as there are people in line, either physically or via the internet, willing to pay the money the Boom will continue.

I agree, there are way more new people joining the wave than there are veterans tiring of the chase.  Just look how many new members are joining this site.

Edited October 3, 2017 by Kepler

[jvd99]

1 hour ago, Kepler said:

 

This is a true high end local chain that's been in  business a long time and has a great reputation.  They're legit and their whiskey collection is legit. Not fakes. 

The whiskey menu listed each vintage year separately in the menu.

If this place has a market for high end bourbon, how are bottles from several years ago still on the bar?  You may be completely correct in your assessment that they're 100% legit, but that selection screams red flags for me.  Just one person's point of view.

[Gorzo]

Sometimes the paranoia on this site that presumes establishments or individuals are out to screw people with fakes, refilled bottles or hoarding  gets to be a little much. Not saying it doesn't  happen but certainly not the norm.  There are people willing to pay $25-$50+ a pour and that's who higher end establishments and to some degree the secondary market caters to not the WT101 drinkers. 

 

 The higher end bourbon market will be hot as long as people have extra cash in their pocket from the better economy. All "luxury" items are doing well cause people have more money. Next recession things will go the other way.  I am not saying you will find Pappy on the shelf but you also won't have to pay 5-10x MSRP either and a lot of other allocated bourbon that stores mark up will come back in line.... It's simple economics.  I haven't been involved in the whole bourbon game for that long, so I know nothing about an era of easy to find higher end bourbon, but imagine it runs in cycles like everything else.

[flahute]

11 minutes ago, jvd99 said:

If this place has a market for high end bourbon, how are bottles from several years ago still on the bar?  You may be completely correct in your assessment that they're 100% legit, but that selection screams red flags for me.  Just one person's point of view.

Price it high enough and it moves pretty slow, which is the intent.

[kemosabe]

1 hour ago, jvd99 said:

My dad monitored his supply real close too, and his bottles were filled up with other stuff all the time when I was in high school.  

That's funny.  Hope my kid isn't playing that game.

Edited October 3, 2017 by kemosabe
I'm retarded.