Jackinbox Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 2 hours ago, BourbonDude said: Yeah, also 100% agree. Have tried probably half a dozen of these in the last couple of years just for sh*ts and giggles and while not terrible, the juice is way too young, too harsh, and spirity, which is too bad, as some of these might have really been good if aged properly. But the prices are just silly. Just wait until Castle & Key starts selling their 4-year bourbon for $79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 At least Castle And Key is doing good work, and saving some very precious bourbon history. I'm inclined to buy some of their stuff just for that. They're not just buying MGP bulk and chucking it into mini-barrels with a cockamamy legend or hillbilly pioneer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BourbonDude Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 (edited) 37 minutes ago, The Black Tot said: At least Castle And Key is doing good work, and saving some very precious bourbon history. I'm inclined to buy some of their stuff just for that. They're not just buying MGP bulk and chucking it into mini-barrels with a cockamamy legend or hillbilly pioneer Haha! You mean like Blood Oath? Yeah, $60 (and maybe more like $40) juice selling for $125 plus tax. Tried the #2 and #3. I was dumb enough to buy the second one. But I'm not dumb enough to buy the third. Fool me once, fool me twice, etc. Didn't know about Blood Oath until I tried it, but just the presentation made me suspicious. My fave liquor store only had 1 of each bottle, and they had just sat there for a while. First bad sign. Bottle design looked pretentious and contrived. Second bad sign. Blood Oath name even more pretentious and contrived. Third bad sign. So I was 90% sure the liquid in the bottle wouldn't live up to the hype. ;-( Edited August 12, 2017 by BourbonDude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BourbonDude Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jackinbox said: Just wait until Castle & Key starts selling their 4-year bourbon for $79. After trying all those 2 year bottlings a 4 year sounds downright respectable. Edited August 12, 2017 by BourbonDude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 At least Castle And Key is doing good work, and saving some very precious bourbon history. I'm inclined to buy some of their stuff just for that. They're not just buying MGP bulk and chucking it into mini-barrels with a cockamamy legend or hillbilly pioneerI think many of us agree with your sentiments on Castle and Key, and I'll be right along with you to support them when they start selling their first products. I wouldn't mind supporting younger bourbon from some of the other start-up craft distillers either if they'd price it appropriately, but most of them have lost their minds. If a distillery is local to you, I can see supporting them to keep them going until they have time to get some age on their products, but trying to sell outside of your local area with prices that compete with Blanton's, CEHT, KCSiB, ECBP, Stagg Jr., etc., etc. doesn't garner much future goodwill for their businesses in my opinion. There are now over 800 distilleries in the US. With the forthcoming glut of all this new craft whiskey along with the big boys recent and ongoing production and rick-house expansions, within five years I predict that we will likely start to see the boom start to sputter a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 1 minute ago, lcpfratn said: . There are now over 800 distilleries in the US. With the forthcoming glut of all this new craft whiskey along with the big boys recent and ongoing production and rick-house expansions, within five years I predict that we will likely start to see the boom start to sputter a bit. I think we sometimes we overstate the output and impact of the astronomical number of US "craft" distilleries as it pertains to the bourbon market. Yes, 800 distilleries sound like a lot, but outside of a few top ones, their contribution to the bourbon pool won't fill a thimble. Even counting the bigger ones, I don't think the impact is much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvd99 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 2 hours ago, BourbonDude said: After trying all those 2 year bottlings a 4 year sounds downright respectable. All that young craft booze is just noise to me. I've lost all interest in trying that kind of stuff. The boom has peaked for me. I'm not aggressively hunting because there's nothing to hunt. My buying is way Down because nothing truly interests me that would be sitting on a shelf and my bunker is overflowing. I'm not interested in bars as a whisky destination because my bunker blows away most establishments' I just buy the LEs I'm offered from my local guy nowadays and stock up on everyday drinkers once in a while. That's the end of a 6 year hard run on all things bourbon/scotch. Now I'll just take a step back and watch the craziness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 I think we sometimes we overstate the output and impact of the astronomical number of US "craft" distilleries as it pertains to the bourbon market. Yes, 800 distilleries sound like a lot, but outside of a few top ones, their contribution to the bourbon pool won't fill a thimble. Even counting the bigger ones, I don't think the impact is much. Ah Joe, I knew I could count on you to chime in! I hear what you're sayin' and while I agree with you to some degree, I don't think you can completely discount the effect that all of those craft distillers combined with the expansions by the big boys will have within five years. I know one thing for sure, and that is most liquor stores have a finite space for product on their shelves, and I keep seeing more and more of this craft stuff popping up on the shelves in more and more stores, and at some point there's not going to be room for everything...well actually there's not room in most stores for everything now, and in many stores around me the brown stuff occupies a very small portion of the overall store space anyway. So, I'll stick to my prediction, and I guess we'll see what the "boom" looks like in 5 years. I'm sure we'll have some good conversations about this in the gazebo the next few years...I look forward to it. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 ^^^^ I'm so damn predictable!! 5 yrs seems reasonable to see real change, but only the expansion in capacity by the legacies will have an impact IMO. The crafts will bring Doodley squat, regardless of what they say... I do look forward to chattin' it up in the Gazebo with you over a few pours again real soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 (edited) 23 minutes ago, jvd99 said: All that young craft booze is just noise to me. I've lost all interest in trying that kind of stuff. The boom has peaked for me. I'm not aggressively hunting because there's nothing to hunt. My buying is way Down because nothing truly interests me that would be sitting on a shelf and my bunker is overflowing. I'm not interested in bars as a whisky destination because my bunker blows away most establishments' I just buy the LEs I'm offered from my local guy nowadays and stock up on everyday drinkers once in a while. That's the end of a 6 year hard run on all things bourbon/scotch. Now I'll just take a step back and watch the craziness. This is exactly what I was writing about way back in this thread. This is the one possible result of buying more than you can drink, which is what most spirits geeks have been doing for some time now. When enough of the booms heavy buyers hit "peak bunker", the industry is going to have a wake up call on what the actual consumption rate is. Just as all that new expansion is hitting maturation. It's already overdue, imo. I think people now are still buying mostly out of bunker buying habits formed over the last 5yrs particularly. That kind of drive doesn't exactly switch itself off like a light. I like to think I've slowed down - but this year already I'm probably at at least 80 bottles bought, and I've probably drank 15? So my bunker is still growing (metastasizing?). The difference is that this year the bottles that I've bought have all been bottles that I find to be fabulous. I no longer buy anything because "it's a bargain price" because I don't have time to drink anything but my faves, and I've got all the dogs I bought while I was starting out to finish even before I get to the proper part of the bunker. Edited August 12, 2017 by The Black Tot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 Who am I kidding? I'm probably at 120, dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvd99 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, The Black Tot said: When enough of the booms heavy buyers hit "peak bunker", the industry is going to have a wake up call on what the actual consumption rate is. I like the term "peak bunker." For me it's not only quality that can't be duplicated in this market, but I've literally run out of room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 ^^^^ I'm so damn predictable!! 5 yrs seems reasonable to see real change, but only the expansion in capacity by the legacies will have an impact IMO. The crafts will bring Doodley squat, regardless of what they say... I do look forward to chattin' it up in the Gazebo with you over a few pours again real soon! LOL! I love the video reference and I look forward to chattin' with you over a few pours too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 Who am I kidding? I'm probably at 120, dammit.Paul, it sounds like we can rely on you to bring some more good stuff to the Gazebo next Sampler weekend in April 2018. [emoji106][emoji1] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 Booked my room just the other night. Hoping the stars align and I'm not sent away to sea somewhere, but so far the plan remains intact. Don't tell Joe though, about half of those bottles this year have been rum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 33 minutes ago, The Black Tot said: Don't tell Joe though, about half of those bottles this year have been rum. The ersatz Rum Aficionado Fred Minnick hooked you in, did he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flahute Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 1 hour ago, lcpfratn said: LOL! I love the video reference and I look forward to chattin' with you over a few pours too! What Joe is saying about the impact of craft distillers is that in terms of proof gallons, all those craft distillers are still less than 1% or so of what the legacy distillers put out. It really is the expansions by those guys that will determine if another glut occurs or if we remain at status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry in WashDC Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Some discussion lately on millenial contributions to the BOOM. After a half hour of browsing for stuff, I found only two places of interest. The first, A New York Post article form Feb 2017, included this quote: "Millennials continue to be interested in “authentic” consumer products like whiskeys, said David Ozgo, the group’s chief economist." No additional or more detailed info was provided, and I couldn't find related info on the DISCUS website. Full NYPost article is HERE: http://nypost.com/2017/02/07/millennials-are-drinking-a-lot-of-whiskey/ The other article IS on the DISCUS website and shows that the "suppliers" are profiting from the continuing boom, especially at the "super premium" level. In 2003, "suppliers" shipped 2,972,000 9-liter cases ($148 mill) of Value product, 4,278,000 cases ($339 mill) of Premium, 5,823,000 ($768 mill) of Hi End Premium, and 332,000 cases ($63 mill) of Super Premium. Compare that to 2016 - 3,677,000 cases ($217 mill) of Value, 5,648,000 cases ($598 mill) of Premium, 10,367,000,($1,833 mill) of Hi End Premium, and 2,061,000 cases ($467 mill) of Super Premium. (Aggregate revenue includes Federal Excise Tax). From 2011-2016, growth rates in case sales were 35.4% for Value, 21.8% for Premium, 33.2% for Hi End Premium, and 127.3% for Super Premium. Growth rates in revenue were -----------------------45.3% " " , 31.3% " " , 44.2% " " " " , and 140.9% " " " . Note that Super Premium volume in 2003 was about one/eighth of Value sales and in 2016 was 2/3 Value sales. Note that Super Premium revenue in 2003 was about 3/5 of Value revenue and in 2016 was TWICE Value sales. All this is easier to see on the DISCUS tables at: http://www.discus.org/assets/1/7/Bourbon_and_Tennessee_Whiskey_2016.pdf My takeaway? Secondary market persons aren't the ONLY ones making money off the boom. Also, it explains why MSRPs on our favorite Hi End Premiums and Super Premiums are going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 2 hours ago, smokinjoe said: The ersatz Rum Aficionado Fred Minnick hooked you in, did he? Fortunately I got started before Mr M started chumming the waters. Actually I think he's doing me a great service, because he's pointing people towards different things than I'm after. His "Pappy Van Winkle Of Rum" isn't mine - so as far as I'm concerned it's "Go, Freddy, GO!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BourbonDude Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, jvd99 said: All that young craft booze is just noise to me. I've lost all interest in trying that kind of stuff. The boom has peaked for me. I'm not aggressively hunting because there's nothing to hunt. My buying is way Down because nothing truly interests me that would be sitting on a shelf and my bunker is overflowing. I'm not interested in bars as a whisky destination because my bunker blows away most establishments' I just buy the LEs I'm offered from my local guy nowadays and stock up on everyday drinkers once in a while. That's the end of a 6 year hard run on all things bourbon/scotch. Now I'll just take a step back and watch the craziness. Right. I'm in pretty much the same situation. There isn't much left for me to try in the way of bourbon, rye, and single malts that's worth my time and money. So I'm getting into gins and rums finally, just to extend my knowledge base, but I've basically reached the point of diminishing returns. Oh well, I'll just have to find another hobby. :-) But it was fun for something like 40 years. Edited August 13, 2017 by BourbonDude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 56 minutes ago, The Black Tot said: Fortunately I got started before Mr M started chumming the waters. Actually I think he's doing me a great service, because he's pointing people towards different things than I'm after. His "Pappy Van Winkle Of Rum" isn't mine - so as far as I'm concerned it's "Go, Freddy, GO!!!" Heehee! Chumming the waters. Spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoustonNit Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 @The Black Tot I believe he's made the most logical explanation of what I would suspect would happen to bourbons that most of us seek. Would expect that current glut demand production coming to age will coincide with full bunkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 What Joe is saying about the impact of craft distillers is that in terms of proof gallons, all those craft distillers are still less than 1% or so of what the legacy distillers put out. It really is the expansions by those guys that will determine if another glut occurs or if we remain at status quo.Steve, I'm not necessarily saying we are going to have a glut in five years, but I do think we'll start to see some of the air going out of the boom balloon. Some of the things I think we might see: 1) Unless we have rampant inflation, I think the current regular price increases will slow and some prices may even start to reverse. 2) The LEs and holy grail stuff probably won't change much, but mid shelf stuff will likely be more readily available. 3) I think we may start to see the return of age statements at least at the younger end because the crafts are likely going to do it as a competitive advantage...I would if I were them. I think the argument that Paul makes above has some merit to it. I also think that even though the crafts and NDPs may only represent 1% of the volume output right now, I'm pretty sure they occupy a much larger percentage of shelf space on liquor store shelves and that percentage is growing. Some of this is because stores can't get all the volume they want from the legacy distillers, and they are using the crafts to help fill their shelves. So what happens when the legacy distillers finally have more product, but the shelf space is already taken? And what if some of those craft distillers put out more desirable products (priced appropriately), which I think many will do within the next five years? All of this is speculation on my part of course...with maybe a little bit of thought behind it, but what the hell do I know? I may be right or maybe I'll be eating crow with a side of humble pie...only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Crow pairs well with craft bourbon, I've heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Crow pairs well with craft bourbon, I've heard.[emoji106][emoji12][emoji23][emoji23]Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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