Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[DonutsNBourbon]

yikes, WSR was part of the lottery...  shows that the boom isn't close to over.

[Richnimrod]

My comment 'at large' about much of what we see in the marketplaces (retail, grey, black; et al) is thus....

"Rationality is limited entirely by actuality, or reality, if you prefer.    Irrationality is unlimited by anything yet discovered."  

Supply & demand count; but, I've been around the block a few times and (trust me) this (^^^) is why we see what see in all these markets.  

This is mainly why it's hard to get a handle on the durability of this boom or bubble or whatever one wishes to call it.

[Thig]

My comment 'at large' about much of what we see in the marketplaces (retail, grey, black; et al) is thus....
"Rationality is limited entirely by actuality, or reality, if you prefer.    Irrationality is unlimited by anything yet discovered."  
Supply & demand count; but, I've been around the block a few times and (trust me) this (^^^) is why we see what see in all these markets.  
This is mainly why it's hard to get a handle on the durability of this boom or bubble or whatever one wishes to call it.

That's just deep man.

[Richnimrod]

1 hour ago, Thig said:

That's just deep man.

Can't be too damned 'deep'.... I'm the one who wrote it, right?!!   HA!    But, I dare say there may be a kernel of wisdom in there; accidental or not.

[RWBadley]

23 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

Was anyone actually happy if they "won" the right to buy some of the junk on the second half of this list after spending a couple hours on the endeavor? I would assume people just left at that point but I might be crazy. If people actually stayed and waited for their chance to buy a bottle of Willett Pot Still Reserve et al then my worst fears have been realized and the boom is still getting worse.....

 

Waiting on line mostly isn't very exciting, but with fellow bourbon enthusiasts it might be a bit easier! Take a chair and a flask.

 

Lately I have seen lines around the block at some breweries for the latest release. Good Grief it's just Beer, People!!

 

The ECBP old bottle isn't bad at 51$.  A solid choice.

 

The Forged oak and Barterhouse aren't too bad either, but I thought the Forged oak on release was higher priced than the Barterhouse. I remember thinking the Forged oak (20yo) quite tasty - not sure about the later ones.

 

The Barterhouse was pretty good depending on the bottling number. I think they did a lot of them and I always thought some tasted better that others...

 

Cheers,

[Limegoldconvertible68]

2 hours ago, RWBadley said:

 

Waiting on line mostly isn't very exciting, but with fellow bourbon enthusiasts it might be a bit easier! Take a chair and a flask.

 

Lately I have seen lines around the block at some breweries for the latest release. Good Grief it's just Beer, People!!

 

The ECBP old bottle isn't bad at 51$.  A solid choice.

 

The Forged oak and Barterhouse aren't too bad either, but I thought the Forged oak on release was higher priced than the Barterhouse. I remember thinking the Forged oak (20yo) quite tasty - not sure about the later ones.

 

The Barterhouse was pretty good depending on the bottling number. I think they did a lot of them and I always thought some tasted better that others...

 

Cheers,

Barterhouse is the 20 yr old bourbon with Forged Oak being a 15 year. I have never seen FO priced more expensive than Barterhouse. 

[RWBadley]

25 minutes ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

Barterhouse is the 20 yr old bourbon with Forged Oak being a 15 year. I have never seen FO priced more expensive than Barterhouse. 

 

Oh right- I was thinking of Rhetoric 20yo which seemed a pretty good pour. The Forged Oak 15 I think I only got to try once and don't seem to remember it...

Edited June 12, 2017 by RWBadley

[Jamie76]

Like a recession, you don't know you're upon it until you see it in the rear view mirror.

[NDN98]

On 6/11/2017 at 6:23 PM, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

Can someone explain the logic of having the lottery in June. Didn't All the Pappy come out last October?  Some of the small stores around me dole out the bottle at that time with the bigger chains doing the special events early in the Christmas buying season. What's the point of waiting 6 additional months?

Most of the summer lotteries around me are done as part of "tastings" put on by Sazerac at local stores.  They (Sazerac) allocated X # of bottles of the various Pappy offerings, BT Antique, Stagg Jr., Blanton's, 1792 Sweet Wheat, Weller 12, etc. for the tasting/lottery.  Went to one last week and it had a pretty decent turnout.  Everyone got to taste several Sazerac offerings, people got to have a chance to purchase some hard-to-find bottles, and the store got foot traffic and some additional sales.

[musekatcher]

17 hours ago, DonutsNBourbon said:

yikes, WSR was part of the lottery...  shows that the boom isn't close to over.

 

Alarming.  What's next?  Rationing Kentucky Tavern?  3 figure retail prices Old Barton?  Out of control....

[Bbstout]

I actually contemplated being late to my daughters softball game to wait in line for a chance at a rare bottle. The night before I realized what an idiot I was to even entertain the thought. Definitely was an eye opener that I have gotten to wrapped up in the chase. I am going to make a concerted effort to back off and only purchase special bottles. 

[PaulO]

I've come to the conclusion BT/Sazerac engineers a whole lot of the hype shortage hysteria.  I used to be a loyal Weller customer.  Such a small amount comes our way anymore.  I can just forget about it.  If I ever did just find it on shelves; that would be great.

Meanwhile, I'll go to my local grocery store for good deals on WT 101 and MM.  Some games - the way to win is not to play.

In my opinion; regular MM is much better than Weller SR.

[Limegoldconvertible68]

12 hours ago, PaulO said:

I've come to the conclusion BT/Sazerac engineers a whole lot of the hype shortage hysteria.  I used to be a loyal Weller customer.  Such a small amount comes our way anymore.  I can just forget about it.  If I ever did just find it on shelves; that would be great.

Meanwhile, I'll go to my local grocery store for good deals on WT 101 and MM.  Some games - the way to win is not to play.

In my opinion; regular MM is much better than Weller SR.

Interesting you mention going to the grocery store for the good deals. I wonder if there might be some harm to liquor stores over this boom. My justification for paying the higher prices at Liqour stores has always been that they take care of me with an occasional hard to find bottle because I'm a great customer. Unfortunately, this is increasingly not the case. It's becoming more of a I pay their higher prices they screw me and auction off the good bottles.

[DonutsNBourbon]

3 hours ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

Interesting you mention going to the grocery store for the good deals. I wonder if there might be some harm to liquor stores over this boom. My justification for paying the higher prices at Liqour stores has always been that they take care of me with an occasional hard to find bottle because I'm a great customer. Unfortunately, this is increasingly not the case. It's becoming more of a I pay their higher prices they screw me and auction off the good bottles.

 

honestly, unless you have a really good relationship with your local or you're spending thousands of dollars at their store, you're just not going to get those good bottles.  so I just go for whichever place has the cheapest price and the bottles I'm looking for.  I'm still looking for that store where I can build that relationship, but I've cut back on my spending, too many bottles in the bunker already!

[PaulO]

I have some liquor stores that I like.  The main difference I find between liquor stores and grocery stores with a liquor section is; grocery stores won't mess around much with items they can't keep stocked.  

A good liquor store should have a better selection, and some deals.

A grocery or pharmacy will have the most main stream items, usually something on sale.

A lot of this boom is a proliferation of labels and marketing.

[chasking]

On 6/13/2017 at 10:16 PM, PaulO said:

I've come to the conclusion BT/Sazerac engineers a whole lot of the hype shortage hysteria.  I used to be a loyal Weller customer.  Such a small amount comes our way anymore.  I can just forget about it.  If I ever did just find it on shelves; that would be great.

Meanwhile, I'll go to my local grocery store for good deals on WT 101 and MM.  Some games - the way to win is not to play.

In my opinion; regular MM is much better than Weller SR.

 

I feel that as long as Larceny is readily available, I'm not too concerned if Weller SR is hard to find.  And, I've also found good deals at the supermarket---one near my house had Smooth Ambler products last time I looked.

[KyleCBreese]

Saw a report on Bloomberg today that Trails End is exploring a sale with a sale price of up to 200 million. That seems incredibly high for a barely known product. I think the boom is as strong as ever. 

[KyleCBreese]

Looks like WhistlePig is exploring a sale as well. 

[Harry in WashDC]

17 minutes ago, KyleCBreese said:

Looks like WhistlePig is exploring a sale as well. 

Hhhhmmmm.  Here's a link  - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-22/whistlepig-rye-whiskey-said-to-weigh-sale-amid-takeover-interest

 

That link ALSO has a link to a Bloomberg story on the recent (since last year) infighting with/among the BOD.  This uneducated, inexperienced in investment banking observer wonders if some of the big money investors (like Barclay's and Quadrant Capital Advisors to list just two who are named in the Bloomberg articles) have decided NOW is the time to take the money and run.  I sure hope any buyer realizes that WP can command its price NOT because of its bottles and labels BUT because of the excellently blended and finished and treated (to some palates like mine) distillate in the bottles even if a lot of it is from ADL (Thanks, Dave. You chose well IMO).

[mbroo5880i]

14 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

Hhhhmmmm.  Here's a link  - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-22/whistlepig-rye-whiskey-said-to-weigh-sale-amid-takeover-interest

 

That link ALSO has a link to a Bloomberg story on the recent (since last year) infighting with/among the BOD.  This uneducated, inexperienced in investment banking observer wonders if some of the big money investors (like Barclay's and Quadrant Capital Advisors to list just two who are named in the Bloomberg articles) have decided NOW is the time to take the money and run.  I sure hope any buyer realizes that WP can command its price NOT because of its bottles and labels BUT because of the excellently blended and finished and treated (to some palates like mine) distillate in the bottles even if a lot of it is from ADL (Thanks, Dave. You chose well IMO).

 

Whistlepig gets a lot of criticism but I have always enjoyed their products.  I just wish they were cheaper so I could buy more.

[lcpfratn]

Hhhhmmmm.  Here's a link  - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-22/whistlepig-rye-whiskey-said-to-weigh-sale-amid-takeover-interest
 
That link ALSO has a link to a Bloomberg story on the recent (since last year) infighting with/among the BOD.  This uneducated, inexperienced in investment banking observer wonders if some of the big money investors (like Barclay's and Quadrant Capital Advisors to list just two who are named in the Bloomberg articles) have decided NOW is the time to take the money and run.  I sure hope any buyer realizes that WP can command its price NOT because of its bottles and labels BUT because of the excellently blended and finished and treated (to some palates like mine) distillate in the bottles even if a lot of it is from ADL (Thanks, Dave. You chose well IMO).

This sounds to me like the private equity guys are thinking that now may be the best time to take the money and run. That's not always an indicator of the end of the run, but these guys are pretty good at reading the tea leaves and making the most money in the least amount of time, so this may actually mean they are sensing a slow down. In regards to WP, I see it sitting on the shelves everywhere...kinda like Booker's. I like Bookers's a lot and have a bottle of WP that I haven't opened yet, but I think they've both gotten to be overpriced. Time will tell of course.


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[garbanzobean]

I don't know about the boom peaking, but we do seem to be approaching equilibrium for many standard bourbons, and I haven't noticed too many new shiny object special editions released in the past year.  It strikes me that many are settling into jacked up prices or lotteries for LEs as the normal.  One thing that I appreciate is that unlike the malt whisky world, world class bourbon is still available in the $15-$35 range.  A lot of it is different and maybe not as good as the glut era, but it stands on its own two legs in terms of quality.  I expect we will probably start to see a lot of smaller guys who never managed to get well aged whiskey to market fold in the next 3-5 years as the ones who did/do continue to get snapped up by the bigger fish.  

 

A big question mark for me remains the highly sought after normals (OWA, RHF, Old Fitz, etc) and the sought after LEs (BTAC, Van Winkle, EHT, Four Roses, etc).  Not sure they are going to be widely available for some time yet.  I'm less concerned by those than I am the lack of interesting store selections and private barrels from Four Roses, Buffalo Trace, HH, Willett, etc.  Outside of Beam and WT, just not feeling the love there.  Without those creating interest and excitement, I'm starting to doubt that the era of $100 Booker's is going to come to pass.  Maybe I am out of touch though.  I've only bought about 4 bottles of whiskey at actual liquor stores in 2017, so I may not have an accurate read on what's happening.

 

I truly believe that in terms of quality, the bottom continues to drop out of the entry level age stated single malt world in favor of garbage NAS releases.  So at least bourbon is in much better shape there.

[El Vino]

I have been in and out of this thread over time.  Lots of interesting observations. GB, I was interested in your observation regarding the market for standards having reached an equilibrium.  With the bulk of the increase in production since the beginning of the boom still aging in rick-houses - with more coming - a lot more whiskey will be hitting the streets over the next five years.  The long awaited supply response.  If the market for standards is in equilibrium now, the increased supply can only drive down prices.  How many would agree that the "market" for standards is in equilibrium now? In my opinion, the market for limiteds will remain tight because that is largely a function of manufactured shortages by withholding supply.

Edited June 24, 2017 by El Vino

[musekatcher]

4 hours ago, El Vino said:

I have been in and out of this thread over time.  Lots of interesting observations. GB, I was interested in your observation regarding the market for standards having reached an equilibrium.  With the bulk of the increase in production since the beginning of the boom still aging in rick-houses - with more coming - a lot more whiskey will be hitting the streets over the next five years.  The long awaited supply response.  If the market for standards is in equilibrium now, the increased supply can only drive down prices.  How many would agree that the "market" for standards is in equilibrium now? In my opinion, the market for limiteds will remain tight because that is largely a function of manufactured shortages by withholding supply.

 

I agree with GB, and project the steady state pricing for better-than-average bourbon is around $50-$60, because that's the per-portion rate for wine, scotch, vodka, and other libations.    Folks are determined to spend $50 when they enter the door, and stores are hyping whatever they have in stock, whether it compares or not - lots of "new" buyers with cash right now.  When Blantons, OWA, and other superior whiskey stocks hit the shelves in quantity in a few years, folks should move to those as obviously superior, and leave these other $50 poser brands collecting dust - UNLESS the bourbon industry tries to have it both ways - but I think they got the message with the Booker's misstep.  I haven't seen Blantons on my shelves since 2015, and I window shop twice a month.  We must be rationed to a two boxes a year or something...

Edited June 24, 2017 by musekatcher

[lcpfratn]

Blanton's is readily available in West TN and always has been. Some shops don't always have it, but others have it by the cases. The only thing that comes and goes quickly are W12, ETL and ECBP outside of BTAC, PH and Pappy. The boom for the LE stuff will continue as long as they continue to limit supplies, but I think age statements will start to come back on some things as supply starts to finally catch up to demand over the next few years.


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