Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[DCFan]

5 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

Isn't this whole boom being driven by gen x'ers and millennial? It's not the baby boomers, with a few exceptions most seem to still buy overpriced vodka or cheap whiskey.

 

I don't know how the numbers break down which was why I threw it out there.

[HoustonNit]

 
I don't know how the numbers break down which was why I threw it out there.

Definitely feels like at least the secondary pricing and crazy stuff is being driven by the 25-40ish crowd and not really boomers.

[DCFan]

15 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

Definitely feels like at least the secondary pricing and crazy stuff is being driven by the 25-40ish crowd and not really boomers.

 

I didn't know if they had the funds to splurge on the unicorns, LE's, and other highly sought after bourbons like the boomers (which is my demographic).

[EarthQuake]

I was born in 1985 which makes me a millennial - I own a house and a car and don't spend my money on avocado toast (insert millennials are ruining everything joke here). I have enough disposable income that I could chase down LEs on the secondary market if I really wanted to - but I don't, mostly because I like trying new things and dropping $300+ on a bottle means a lot less things I can try. I observe the secondary market on sites like bourbonex, mostly to see if there is something I really enjoy (like Barterhouse) but can't regularly find at a reasonable price. This is basically never true, so I've yet to buy anything on the secondary. I buy a lot of whiskey that I can't find locally on the internet, but rarely for much more than retail. I have something like 25 bottles of whiskey at any give time plus that much more in cognac, mezcal, gin, rum, and countless mixers. Most of my friends think I'm a little crazy when it comes to my inventory of booze.

 

My friends who are my age fall into a few categories:

 

People who like cocktails. They typically don't know much about booze rather than what they need to make a cocktail. Spending over $20 on a bottle is a tough decision, even if they can easily afford it.

 

People who like whiskey but stick to the big brands like Makers Mark. This group isn't outwardly adventurous but will try new whiskeys if you're at a bar and suggest something.

 

People who enjoy a wide range of whiskey but are price conscience. This group has favorite whiskey brands, a decent stock of bottles (maybe 5-10 at any given time) but is hard pressed to pay over $40 for a bottle. This group is often still paying off student loans and has limited disposable income.

 

I have other friends, mostly professionals with decent jobs, who are less price conscience and have no problem spending up to $100 on a bottle, often for scotch. These friends are similar to the previous group but may be into fairly specific things like Lagavulin and would generally scoff at paying $100+ for bourbon or rye even though they can afford it. This group will often try new things at bars, and probably picks up a handful of new bottles each year just to try them.

 

Outside of the posters on this wonderful site, I don't know or talk to anyone remotely like myself, nobody who checks the liquor section every time they go to the grocery store just to see if they have something new or rare in, let alone specifically hunting for special bottles. None of my friends shop for whiskey on the secondary market. Most do not know it exists, nor would they realize what Pappy is if they saw it on a shelf at retail. The ones who do know it exists, mostly because I've talked to them about it, think it's absurd to pay secondary prices when there is so much good whiskey available at retail every day.

 

From observing secondary market sites like bourbonex, I would say most people participating in the secondary market are over 40. I say this judging by the avatars of people on that site, usually men in their 40-70s or. So it's my experience that it's not millennials, but gen-x'ers and boomers that make the secondary market move.

 

Now, my sample size is too small for this to be "data", but there are my anecdotes.

Edited August 8, 2017 by EarthQuake

[lcpfratn]

Even if demand stays as high as it is and supply rises, prices will (if the word drop is uncomfortable) ease...
 
One thing is for sure, it will be the end of the $50

I agree 100% Paul. I'm even more amazed at the over $50 2yr craft distillery offerings, especially with so many of them out there now. I'm not saying that all of the young craft stuff is horrible, but they need to get real with the pricing before I'm going to even give it a try. Two examples that recently hit our market are Rabbit Hole and A.D. Laws...both with 2yr age statements and over $50 as I recall. I'm not a buyer of 2yr old bourbon at anywhere close to that price.


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[JSpartan]

2 hours ago, EarthQuake said:

I was born in 1985 which makes me a millennial - I own a house and a car and don't spend my money on avocado toast (insert millennials are ruining everything joke here). I have enough disposable income that I could chase down LEs on the secondary market if I really wanted to - but I don't, mostly because I like trying new things and dropping $300+ on a bottle means a lot less things I can try. I observe the secondary market on sites like bourbonex, mostly to see if there is something I really enjoy (like Barterhouse) but can't regularly find at a reasonable price. This is basically never true, so I've yet to buy anything on the secondary. I buy a lot of whiskey that I can't find locally on the internet, but rarely for much more than retail. I have something like 25 bottles of whiskey at any give time plus that much more in cognac, mezcal, gin, rum, and countless mixers. Most of my friends think I'm a little crazy when it comes to my inventory of booze.

 

My friends who are my age fall into a few categories:

 

People who like cocktails. They typically don't know much about booze rather than what they need to make a cocktail. Spending over $20 on a bottle is a tough decision, even if they can easily afford it.

 

People who like whiskey but stick to the big brands like Makers Mark. This group isn't outwardly adventurous but will try new whiskeys if you're at a bar and suggest something.

 

People who enjoy a wide range of whiskey but are price conscience. This group has favorite whiskey brands, a decent stock of bottles (maybe 5-10 at any given time) but is hard pressed to pay over $40 for a bottle. This group is often still paying off student loans and has limited disposable income.

 

I have other friends, mostly professionals with decent jobs, who are less price conscience and have no problem spending up to $100 on a bottle, often for scotch. These friends are similar to the previous group but may be into fairly specific things like Lagavulin and would generally scoff at paying $100+ for bourbon or rye even though they can afford it. This group will often try new things at bars, and probably picks up a handful of new bottles each year just to try them.

 

Outside of the posters on this wonderful site, I don't know or talk to anyone remotely like myself, nobody who checks the liquor section every time they go to the grocery store just to see if they have something new or rare in, let alone specifically hunting for special bottles. None of my friends shop for whiskey on the secondary market. Most do not know it exists, nor would they realize what Pappy is if they saw it on a shelf at retail. The ones who do know it exists, mostly because I've talked to them about it, think it's absurd to pay secondary prices when there is so much good whiskey available at retail every day.

 

From observing secondary market sites like bourbonex, I would say most people participating in the secondary market are over 40. I say this judging by the avatars of people on that site, usually men in their 40-70s or. So it's my experience that it's not millennials, but gen-x'ers and boomers that make the secondary market move.

 

Now, my sample size is too small for this to be "data", but there are my anecdotes.

I too was born in 1985 and this is the exact description of my friends as well.  A few are definitely interested in good bourbon as well, but don't go actively seeking it out like I will. I also have never participated in the secondary market as you can still find great bourbons at MSRP. I refuse to give in to the extreme pricing of some of those bottles.  I have, however, lucked into some of the harder to find bottles, which is part of the thrill of the hunt to me. 

[kevinbrink]

3 hours ago, DCFan said:

 

I didn't know if they had the funds to splurge on the unicorns, LE's, and other highly sought after bourbons like the boomers (which is my demographic).

I think for sure the Gen X crowd is in a financial position to do so, I also think we are more compelled by FOMO than our parent's generations. 

[DCFan]

13 minutes ago, kevinbrink said:

I think for sure the Gen X crowd is in a financial position to do so, I also think we are more compelled by FOMO than our parent's generations. 

 

Another article today that says that the boomers are shutting out the millennials from the housing market because they're living longer and aren't selling. (They are the 2 biggest groups). So are they taking out their frustrations with expensive bourbons instead? 

 

ps - excuse me while I look up FOMO

[kevinbrink]

2 minutes ago, DCFan said:

 

Another article today that says that the boomers are shutting out the millennials from the housing market because they're living longer and aren't selling. (They are the 2 biggest groups). So are they taking out their frustrations with expensive bourbons instead? 

 

ps - excuse me while I look up FOMO

FOMO = Fear Of Missing Out. In regards to housing, that is real for sure, affordable housing is really not abundant so I think younger Gen X'ers and Millennials have had a hard time of reconciling the advantage of a mortgage over rent. I also think that mobility has become important since more people are employed by national/international companies than in previous generations. I certainly spend the money I save having a rent rather than Mortgage and Taxes on bourbon.  I would be much more interested in buying a Vacation home then a permanent residence considering that the places I would buy would be much more affordable. If that happens there will be some extra inventory on the shelves in NYC and Northern NJ so congrats to the other guys buying in those markets! 

[EarthQuake]

I think it would be safe to say there are very few millennials who are buying Pappy on the secondary market rather than saving for or buying a house. There are numerous factors that go into the housing situation, however, less disposable income and inflated housing prices (if this is due to boomers I do not know) tend to be the main reasons.

 

A lot of millennials simply can't afford to buy a house, often due to student loan debt, something that hits millennials harder than previous generations (higher rate of debt for equivalent education). When adjusted for inflation it's roughly 3 times more expensive to attend collage today than it was in say, 1980 (source: https://trends.collegeboard.org/college-pricing/figures-tables/tuition-fees-room-and-board-over-time). 100K+ in student loan debt on graduation is not uncommon.

 

Many millennials live in larger cities because that is where the well paying jobs tend to be, but the housing markets can be rather absurd in those areas. I'm lucky in that I work remotely with a decent paying job (software industry) and can live in a low cost of living area and afford a nice house and have money for various hobbies and travel. If I lived in LA or San Fran where a lot of my friends in the industry live, firstly I would be making an entry level salary, but secondly my house would have cost somewhere in the multi-million dollar range. I would end up renting like a lot of my friends.

 

Younger people typically work a lot of jobs, and often move across country in search of a good job (there are a number of reasons for this, for instance certain sectors like tech can be very volatile, jumping around can be financially beneficial as well - it's usually easier to get a higher salary at a new job then through promotion), which makes settling down and buying a house a risky and expensive proposition. The general rule of thumb is that if you're going to be somewhere for more three years, it tends to make sense to buy rather than rent. 3 years is a long time for someone that doesn't have confidence in their job security. In some parts of the country buying means having a down payment that is basically impossible to save up for (again, LA, SF, NYC, etc), so it's just not feasible. We bought our starter house at a young age (24) relative to our generation, but my wife's family helped with the down payment (a luxury most people don't have) and that equity made it a lot easier to buy our second house. Most of my friends who own houses have recently bought them now that they are getting into their 30's.

 

On the flip side it's a great time to buy a house if you can afford it and live in an area with a reasonable market. My wife and I bought our first in 2009, and current house in 2016 and each mortgage has been under 4% which is extremely low looking at historic trends. When my wife's father bought her childhood house in the late 80's I think he paid closer to 20%.

Edited August 8, 2017 by EarthQuake

[Kepler]

I think millennial males are spending their disposable income on things like whiskey and clothes instead of what boomers and  gen-xers spent it on when they were young and single -- cars and motorcycles.  Some studies I've heard of indicate some millennials would rather do without their car than their smartphone if forced to make a choice.  When I was in my early and mid 20's most of my extra cash went to my car -- by choice not necessity.

 

Is Millennial "Car Guy" an oxymoron??

[HoustonNit]

I think millennial males are spending their disposable income on things like whiskey and clothes instead of what boomers and  gen-xers spent it on when they were young and single -- cars and motorcycles.  Some studies I've heard of indicate some millennials would rather do without their car than their smartphone if forced to make a choice.  When I was in my early and mid 20's most of my extra cash went to my car -- by choice not necessity.
 
Is Millennial "Car Guy" an oxymoron??

This! Also just in general young millennials, educated with decent entry level jobs whether they are spending there money on nice cars which they aren't or things like jeans and whiskey which there more inclined to do have disposable income to waste. Whiskey is in right now with DINKS, hipster, yuppies

I work with a baby boomer supplier who could easily afford good bourbon. He has a bottle of Bowman Brothers in his office which his brother gave him as it's there last name. I asked him about it and he said he never tried it but was into some expensive Russian vodka I never heard of.

[EarthQuake]

Hey did you guys hear the latest study that millennials would rather buy skinny jeans than groceries? Tune in for this and other made up nonsense on "Back in My Day", exclusively on the Grumpy-Old-Man channel.

Edited August 9, 2017 by EarthQuake

[flahute]

Based on my experience out at whiskey bars both here and in Kentucky, and while waiting in line at liquor stores for LE releases, and online in the secondary Facebook groups - there are indeed quite a few millennials willing to spend larger sums of cash on LE and other desirable whiskeys. Gen Xers are in there too, but the millennials make up a large percentage of the group. What I've seen in them to a much greater degree than previous generations is the desire to enter a 'hobby' and go straight to the top wanting to try 'the best' while making it the primary item they consume.  Anything else is perceived as a let down or compromise. You don't get as many clicks and likes for what is common.

[musekatcher]

1 hour ago, flahute said:

What I've seen in them to a much greater degree than previous generations is the desire to enter a 'hobby' and go straight to the top wanting to try 'the best' while making it the primary item they consume.

 

Good observation.  When folks enter a hobby utilizing money to speed up the ascension process, it usually leads to a quick climax followed by a quick exit to the next hobby.  Merchants know this, and provide product offerings to accommodate this behavior, because these are the most profitable consumers, spending the most money in the shortest period of time.  I think that explains many of the posers on the top shelf.  Maybe this is more data pointing to a fad that will subside. 

[HoustonNit]

Hey did you guys hear the latest study that millennials would rather buy skinny jeans than groceries? Tune in for this and other made up nonsense on "Back in My Day", exclusively on the Grumpy-Old-Man channel.

How else can you fit in skinny jeans.

[The Black Tot]

4 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

 

How else can you fit in skinny jeans.

 

 

[HoustonNit]

Hey did you guys hear the latest study that millennials would rather buy skinny jeans than groceries? Tune in for this and other made up nonsense on "Back in My Day", exclusively on the Grumpy-Old-Man channel.

Full disclosure I'm technically a millennial but I don't think anyone wants to see me in skinny jeans.

[birdie]

My opinion is the the buyers are all over the board with regards to age, it comes down to disposable income. (My son is in college and he has friends with disposable income, school is starting to fire up in my college town, and the number of BMW's and Audi's around is going up every day, driven by 20 year olds. Obviously its not their disposable income, its their parents, but either way they have access to money) I also have a number of mid 40's friends that buy high end LE bourbons on the secondary and at inflated prices in stores on a regular basis.

 

Their reasoning when I ask normally falls into these buckets,

 

1. I can afford it.

2. I am not going to drive to 6 different stores to see if I can get it cheaper if its sitting right in front of me.

3. I am not going to wait on a lottery, store manager relationship, chance etc etc

 

And my favorite,

 

4. I have 3 bottles of Pappy 15 (for example) and drink it often, you are still looking/hunting for your first.

 

 

 

 

[Swamp55]

2 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

Full disclosure I'm technically a millennial but I don't think anyone wants to see me in skinny jeans.

 

 

In that case, I guess it really wouldn't be full disclosure...

[EarthQuake]

2 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Full disclosure I'm technically a millennial but I don't think anyone wants to see me in skinny jeans.

 

 

[Clueby]

This event (https://langleysocial.com/atou/tickets) would seem to indicate that there is very much a boom still going on.  The price recently dropped from $2500 to $1500 but I think that has to do with sponsorship and not popularity.

[BourbonDude]

On 8/10/2017 at 1:28 PM, Clueby said:

This event (https://langleysocial.com/atou/tickets) would seem to indicate that there is very much a boom still going on.  The price recently dropped from $2500 to $1500 but I think that has to do with sponsorship and not popularity.

 

Recently I was talking to a local liquor store owner about prices for various stuff, and mentioned that I had an opportunity to sample a bottle of Bowmore Black back in the 90s. IIRC, it was priced at about $700 at the time. He said today that Bowmore Black would go for $10,000. Yikes. 

[BourbonDude]

On 8/8/2017 at 11:36 AM, lcpfratn said:

I agree 100% Paul. I'm even more amazed at the over $50 2yr craft distillery offerings, especially with so many of them out there now. I'm not saying that all of the young craft stuff is horrible, but they need to get real with the pricing before I'm going to even give it a try. Two examples that recently hit our market are Rabbit Hole and A.D. Laws...both with 2yr age statements and over $50 as I recall. I'm not a buyer of 2yr old bourbon at anywhere close to that price.

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Yeah, also 100% agree. Have tried probably half a dozen of these in the last couple of years just for sh*ts and giggles and while not terrible, the juice is way too young, too harsh, and spirity, which is too bad, as some of these might have really been good if aged properly. But the prices are just silly.

 

For example, I just tried the Gunpowder Rye, $45 plus tax. This was better than most as it wasn't so harsh. It was actually pleasant. My main complaint was that it was so sweet that it overwhelmed the spicy rye flavors. So while not bad, it just didn't taste like rye.

 

The professional reviews I've read mention spiciness and an herbal quality. But I didn't get any of that because it was so sweet and fruity on my palate. Again, not unpleasant; it just didn't seem like rye to me. It could just as easily been a lighter, sweet bourbon.

Edited August 12, 2017 by BourbonDude

[BourbonDude]

1 hour ago, BourbonDude said:

 

Yeah, also 100% agree. Have tried probably half a dozen of these in the last couple of years just for sh*ts and giggles and while not terrible, the juice is way too young, too harsh, and spirity, which is too bad, as some of these might have really been good if aged properly. But the prices are just silly.

 

For example, I just tried the Gunpowder Rye, $45 plus tax. This was better than most as it wasn't so harsh. It was actually pleasant. My main complaint was that it was so sweet that it overwhelmed the spicy rye flavors. So while not bad, it just didn't taste like rye.

 

The professional reviews I've read mention spiciness and an herbal quality. But I didn't get any of that because it was so sweet and fruity on my palate. Again, not unpleasant; it just didn't seem like rye to me. It could just as easily been a lighter, sweet bourbon.

 

Oops, correction to the above. I meant to say the Gunfighter, not Gunpowder.