Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Richnimrod]

Hey I died TWICE.... This Week Alone!!!!    Send me some W12!     I deserve it!     Jeeeeez, how many times must a fella die to get a bottle or two?????

[mosugoji64]

37 minutes ago, Richnimrod said:

Hey I died TWICE.... This Week Alone!!!!    Send me some W12!     I deserve it!     Jeeeeez, how many times must a fella die to get a bottle or two?????

 

Third time's the charm, Rich! You can do it! 

[The Black Tot]

And I bet everyone in creative writing class in high school was thinking "where will I ever USE this stuff?"

[flahute]

12 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

And I bet everyone in creative writing class in high school was thinking "where will I ever USE this stuff?"

Between bourbon labels and fake news websites, they can write their own ticket now.

[Insanityabounds]

Hi all, I stumbled onto this forum via this thread popping up after a Google search. Read the whole thing pretty much and a lot of it is very interesting, especially since it starts in like 2015 and goes on till today giving one a pretty good picture of how things have changed in the Bourbon world and how the boom/bubble has effected it. Personally I dont see many signs of the movement slowing down. In Birmingham anything to do with Buffalo Trace is highly allocated and extremely hard to find. I mean they keep regualr BT behind the counters and sell one per hard to get. Ive seen six bottles of ECBP in the last two years. Four Roses private selections over 10 years old dissapear pretty quickly. Things like RY10 or Henry McKenna 10 are non existent. All the Willett stuff gets bought up indiscriminately. The state got an allocation of ETL not long ago. I was in the store I visit most often when I saw an ABC rep walk in the front carrying a couple of taped over boxes. Stuck around fora min to see what it could be and got lucky. Got one and texted a buddy they had some. When he got there 15 mins later it was all gone. Only nice thing was it was 36 bucks after tax. Only thing I can point to that may be good is stuff like KC25 and Blood Oath along with IWH15 seem to be sitting on the shelves. Weller might as well be on the freaking moon if you live round here. Anyways, just my two cents. Bottle Blue Book shows transactions are still taking place on the secondary for some crazy prices. I think a couple more years of a few hundred people competing for 10 bottles in early Nov while store employees pilfer everything first will turn a lot more people off. They mostly show up for Pappy and when it was gone in 5 mins many of the people I stood in line with had no idea what else they should try and get. That was last year. The same bottlings that where hard to get last year are just as hard if not harder to get this year. Its doubly aggravating for me because in this part of the State almost all of my favorite drinks have either been killed or are so allocated its not even fun to try and find them any more. So, in my eyes the boom/bubble is still in full swing and causing major disruptions in the industry,  but I see better days on the horizon. Anyways, just my two cents. Cheers. 

[BrianGA]

I like collecting/hunting, I can't say I fully understand the need to bunker though.  I want to, I just don't understand the need to do so.  Ok NAS is now a reality, but is the quality of bourbon going to continue to deteriorate in a meaningful way?  I'm just not experienced enough to really understand.  Do you bunker ER10 (if you like it), or is that just unnecessary?  I guess it depends on what section of the country you're in, and what is readily available?

[Paddy]

^^^I don't think it's deteriorating Brian, just evolving.  There's probably more 'good' bourbon available out there now than at any other time in the short history of this God bless American product. 

 

But, on the other hand, you can't walk into the local and pick up a case of Pappy at $39 per bottle any more either.  A few folks had the foresight to capture a snapshot of that moment in time...by stocking it up in their bunkers. 

 

Sure wish I'd thought of that.

 

Ever determined to not entirely miss my window, I've been modestly collecting a snapshot of this era's finest offerings of our local product for several year now.  So at this point in the game, do I regret buying 12 and 14+ year old barrel proof 4R private selections for $40 and change?  What about Elijah Craig 12 year at $22, Elmer T Lee at $22, cases of Weller 12 at $22, handles of Ancient Ancient Age 10 year old at $35 or Knob Creek 9 year old at $22?  I won't even bring up the Old Charter 10 year old, age stated Wild Turkey 101's, Eagle Rare 101's, age stated Very Old Barton BIB's, etc..., 'cause the point is already clear.

 

Mind you, I'm not planning on building a warehouse (or adding on to my home), but it is nice to have a small moment in time captured in a few bottles.  Particularly if they are bottles that one finds enjoyable.  My hope is that I will be able to somewhat compare the old to the current and new, over the remaining span of my run on this earth.  Especially rewarding would be to share this experience with my family and good friends.  I pray that, before my time comes to an end, we manage to go through the entire lot!  

Edited August 6, 2017 by Paddy

[BrianGA]

Well said Paddy! 

 

Still learning as I go here.  Not sure how clearly the writing on the wall was a few years back.  I'm incredibly jealous of the collections I've seen here, and am drooling over the bottles mentioned above.  

 

I'm not sure I recognize whether there is a need to - or HOW to - effectively collect TODAY.  Prices seem so steep it is difficult to recognize where there is still value out there, particularly as craft distilleries and production ramps up.  We're in the bubble, right? "Buy low" makes sense.  Buying quality/quantity low during the bubble is tough!! 

 

For now, I'll continue to look for difficult to find bottles.  I can't help thinking I'm overlooking those "moment in time" bottles that I'll wish I'd focused on collecting a bit more. 4R Private Selections, OF 1920, and ECBP (if found) at ~$60+ a pop is tough to commit to.  I'm still trying to find stores that will let anything unique go in the ballpark of MSRP. 

[Harry in WashDC]

7 hours ago, BrianGA said:

. . . 

 

I'm still trying to find stores that will let anything unique go in the ballpark of MSRP. 

Do not mess up that forest/trees thing.  I have liked Knob Creek since it came out.  For awhile, I didn't buy it because I figured it'd always be around.  About two years ago, when it became rare in some places for some reason,  stores around here were hip-deep so I started bunkering - but only when it was "on sale" at under $22 per 750.  Then, they dropped the age statement.  I'm glad I have a several years' supply @$23-23 although I have to admit that I still like it even though the price now is around $25-27.  But EC 12/NAS?  It just doesn't fit my palate and never has so I don't buy it at any price.  IOW, I bunker but only so I don't have to search later for my basics.  But that's just me.  YMMV. 

[smokinjoe]

The boom is Over.  Done.  Finito.  My monger offered me the latest ECBP at $54...and I said no thanks...

 

Or, I could simply be a bigger dumbass than previously thought....

 

 

 

 

[Prof_Stack]

The boom is over for me.  I have rediscovered red wine, and a trip through the wine country in E Washington State convinced me that there is more to alcohol pleasure than whiskey.  So, my whiskey collection (very small by most standards here) will take a few years to dwindle away, with me unlikely to buy much of anything.  

 

I checked out a tax-free liquor store in Oregon last week and found that I had no interest in their spirits.  The prices were higher than I expected.  I walked out with a nice cabernet from WA for $18, again, tax free.

 

Last week I saw that Woodinville Whiskey is having a "you-tap-it" bottle fill, by reservation only.  They are also releasing two special port and apple-wood finished bourbons for "only" $70.  As much as I like their products, being local and all, no thanks.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Prof_Stack

[Vosgar]

1 hour ago, smokinjoe said:

The boom is Over.  Done.  Finito.  

While I don't think the bourbon boom is over, it is for me. I've got more stashed away than anyone should, heck, even my kids were talking about what are they going to do with all of it when I'm dead ("hey guys, c'mon, I'm standing right here while you're saying this!"). I'm over buying things I like just because it's a good deal, craft bourbon at this point isn't any good, and the special releases have gone crazy with their prices.

 

That being said, I'm still busting the bunker by buying a few goodies, but they're private selections and whiskies other than bourbon. I just can't seem to help myself 

[lcpfratn]

The boom is Over.  Done.  Finito.  My monger offered me the latest ECBP at $54...and I said no thanks...
 
Or, I could simply be a bigger dumbass than previously thought....
 

The boom absolutely must be over then because we all know you are not a dumbass...smartass yes, but dumbass not so much! [emoji12][emoji23][emoji6][emoji56]



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[mosugoji64]

21 hours ago, BrianGA said:

Well said Paddy! 

 

Still learning as I go here.  Not sure how clearly the writing on the wall was a few years back.  I'm incredibly jealous of the collections I've seen here, and am drooling over the bottles mentioned above.  

 

I'm not sure I recognize whether there is a need to - or HOW to - effectively collect TODAY.  Prices seem so steep it is difficult to recognize where there is still value out there, particularly as craft distilleries and production ramps up.  We're in the bubble, right? "Buy low" makes sense.  Buying quality/quantity low during the bubble is tough!! 

 

For now, I'll continue to look for difficult to find bottles.  I can't help thinking I'm overlooking those "moment in time" bottles that I'll wish I'd focused on collecting a bit more. 4R Private Selections, OF 1920, and ECBP (if found) at ~$60+ a pop is tough to commit to.  I'm still trying to find stores that will let anything unique go in the ballpark of MSRP. 

 

From one Brian to another  the key to effective collecting is to buy what you like rather than chasing what is hard to find. The examples Paddy gave are irritating as many of those were once easily obtainable at reasonable prices. Some are now inexplicably unobtainable due to the boom, but that's just the state of things now. Don't worry about that. Pay more attention to Harry's example. He stocked up on KC because he liked it and found some good deals, not because it was something special. Most of those here with impressive bunkers built them by buying things they liked that later became high-demand bottles. Stock up on what you like so you'll have it around. Chances are fair that some of those things will become desirable to others later on, which will make you feel pretty cool, but the best part is that you'll have a good stock of stuff you enjoy drinking.

[kevinbrink]

I agree with the sentiment of buying what you like, in my 20's (I'm 37 now) I pretty much drank WT 101, KC, and occasionally spent some extra scratch to buy a bottle of Bakers or Booker's. Somewhere along the way one of the discount places in my area was selling Eagle Rare for really cheap, like sub $20 cheap, so that became a regular purchase and allured by the fancy bottle an occasional Blanton's.  Never really did any research just pulled that stuff off the shelf, the real change in my buying didn't take place until I started going to some festivals in my early 30's and then my buying habits changed full on after watching the Mind of a Chef episode where Sean Brock and David Chang went to BT in 2012. For a few years I tried buying all of the BT stuff I could get my hands on but didn't do a lot of reading other then looking at BT's website and checking bottles off my list.  In 2014 I went to KY for the first time and did some distillery trips and realized there were a lot of things I liked more than the BT stuff I was buying, and that really opened the bay doors and got me to start buying everything. I think now I have honed it in a bit but I still itch to buy every new release I see. Because I never really got into Bourbon as a hobby early on I just bought what I drank and I guess I missed the opportunity to try a lot of stuff that I wouldn't spend the money on now, but I don't really regret it.  These days I buy lots of different stuff but never multiples unless I already know I like it or it's a good deal, so the only things I really have bunkered are ECBP, KC 9yr, EC 12, and some Four Roses PS that I really liked. I find it funny what people go over board to bunker like SAOS, I have a bunch of bottles that I bought more because the price was right, but I have a friend that bought a bunch of SAOS SB Rye for way over retail, even though he could have bought a Redemption 7 yr for less. 

[The Black Tot]

With record levels of (not just American) whiskey laid down for maturation, time is on your side.

 

The time to bunker is when the sun is setting on a glut, not in the mature stages of a boom.

 

If you're under 60 and reckon you'll make 70 I predict you'll be around for the next glut.

 

Having said the above, at this point in whiskey history try every private selection you can until you figure out who shares your taste priorities. And when you find one that knocks your socks off, clear the shelves, because there's only <~200 of them.

 

The only good reason to bunker is that when you get to the end of a great bottle these days, there's no guarantee you'll be able to replace it with something as good, for a reasonable price, since in this market, a lot of the best bottles disappear fast. Having a bunker means you've got more time to wait to find the next great one. Having a larger bunker means you can wait to find the next rye, the next wheater, the next whatever subcategory.

 

But don't get too hung up on buying multiples of limiteds now that the pricing has gone silly. A lot of us with bunkers aren't even worried if we get singles of them these days. There's an ocean of great bourbon asleep in the wood, the future looks very tasty and affordable.

Edited August 7, 2017 by The Black Tot

[Mako254]

22 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

The boom is Over.  Done.  Finito.  My monger offered me the latest ECBP at $54...and I said no thanks...

 

Or, I could simply be a bigger dumbass than previously thought....

 

 

 

 

 

I cracked a B517 ECBP this weekend and it very very good. Second time around was better, but the first night I had been drinking beer in the lake all day and my palate wasn't up to speed. 

[Paddy]

I'll chime back in to agree with Brian above, and Paul (TBT) later down thread.  As you can see by my previous post, my bunker wasn't built on limited's or high dollar bottles, simply stuff I liked that I had the foresight to see was either going away in the near future, or if nothing else, was going to get much more expensive (and harder to find). 

 

A Paul said, it's really crazy to chase limited releases at this stage of the boom.  Find what you like, at a price you find reasonable, and put a few back to give yourself a little margin for any rainy days ahead. 

 

In due time, everything else will work itself out.  

[Harry in WashDC]

6 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

With record levels of (not just American) whiskey laid down for maturation, time is on your side.

 

. . .

 

If you're under 60 and reckon you'll make 70 I predict you'll be around for the next glut.

. . .

 

 

Ah, poop.  I missed the cut.  I guess I'll just have to be happy with what I can find on the shelves to supplement the multiyear 's worth of basics I have hidden around the house.  Somedays I feel like Ray Milland in "Lost Weekend".  I'll open a drawer or move a box in the basement or attic and go, "Lookie here!  I forgot about this!"  Never when my wife is around, of course.  And my car trunk?  Two WSRs which I swore I would buy no more of when I finished my last bottle.  But, the price was SO GOOD . . . 

IN SUM, I'm doing my part to keep The Boom going.

Edited August 8, 2017 by Harry in WashDC

[Swoboda]

"Ray Milland" . . . priceless!

 

[Jackinbox]

7 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

With record levels of (not just American) whiskey laid down for maturation, time is on your side.

 

The time to bunker is when the sun is setting on a glut, not in the mature stages of a boom.

 

 

The stuff I'm bunkering is stuff that I'm not worried about being able to find in the future.  I'm bunkering it because I found a killer deal on it.   Even when the boom ends, I don't think prices are going to drop.   They might stabilize but I don't think they'll drop.  

[The Black Tot]

Even if demand stays as high as it is and supply rises, prices will (if the word drop is uncomfortable) ease...

 

One thing is for sure, it will be the end of the $50 <6yr craft bottle.

[KyleCBreese]

I saw a 7 year, 6 month Four Roses store pick today. That tells me that the warehouses are still being squeezed thin. I haven't seen many signs of a slowdown here in NJ.

[DCFan]

I wonder if there is a correlation to bourbon with the latest financial release from Harley Davidson a couple of weeks ago and the ensuing results? HD reported some pretty crappy numbers so they are laying people off and slowing production. The slow down is being attributed to the fact that baby boomers are now getting too old to be riding and the younger generations don't  have the same love affair with HD as the boomers did. Do the gen x'rs and millennials share our passion with bourbon enough to keep the boom going or will sales flatten out? What do the all important polls have to say about young people and liquor?

[HoustonNit]

Isn't this whole boom being driven by gen x'ers and millennial? It's not the baby boomers, with a few exceptions most seem to still buy overpriced vodka or cheap whiskey.