Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[TheOakMonster]

Pre-2016, our store easily sold 5+ cases of standard Buffalo Trace a month. Guess how much we've sold each month for the past two and half years? Exactly one case. That's because the product has been on allocation in New York for over two years. Not one case per bottle size, but one case total across the brand.  That's real sales our store, the distributor, and the distillery is losing. It's not a game to sell more whiskey. If the distillery had it, they'd sell it.

[Surtur]

Well that’s the interesting thing is in California, Buffalo Trace is in every liquor store, grocery store, drug store, etc. The only thing is that it has gone from $20 in 2012 to $30 or even $35 now. I don’t know amigo, I’m just observing and reporting  

[flahute]

45 minutes ago, Surtur said:

Well that’s the interesting thing is in California, Buffalo Trace is in every liquor store, grocery store, drug store, etc. The only thing is that it has gone from $20 in 2012 to $30 or even $35 now. I don’t know amigo, I’m just observing and reporting  

If BT is that prevalent where you are, how does that support your claim that Sazerac is willingly perpetrating a shortage to drive up demand?

[mikeydk]

1 hour ago, TheOakMonster said:

Pre-2016, our store easily sold 5+ cases of standard Buffalo Trace a month. Guess how much we've sold each month for the past two and half years? Exactly one case. That's because the product has been on allocation in New York for over two years. Not one case per bottle size, but one case total across the brand.  That's real sales our store, the distributor, and the distillery is losing. It's not a game to sell more whiskey. If the distillery had it, they'd sell it.

I’ve wondered what kind of impact this boom era was having on stores.  Lost in the hype of BTAC and PVW is the real down and dirty stuff like the above post.  I rarely see buffalo trace in stores these days at all. Even some bevmos nearby hardly have them.   

 

How does the convo go with the distributor?   Sorry we don’t have any to sell you?   That has to suck.  

[Surtur]

Edit: sorry, replying to Flahute

 

There could be a lot of factors involved. My town is a suburb is Los Angeles and rather small, whiskey of any type isn’t a big seller here so stock is aplenty. I commute and work In LA so I visit both my small town shops and the stores in the city. In California the only thing that has been really effected is the LEs.

 

My claim comes largely from the internet and the fever that has overtaken many newer and younger drinkers, which are a huge source of word of mouth for businesses. Every time a 22 year old posts a picture of Buffalo Trace on their Instagram, all their followers instantly give that bottle huge respect because it now holds weight in their social circle. That is largely what created the boom, millenials and social media, combined with accessibility of “whiskey” such as honey Jack, it made whiskey approachable. Millenials are huge into branding and marketing, which is where my claim that PERHAPS MAYBE the actual amount has been slightly overstated to ride this wave into the sunset. I’m really just throwing an alternate viewpoint out there, not going for an argument. Whether I’m right or wrong, let’s just all enjoy the bourbon we do have available.

 

But what the hell do I know, I’m a welder by trade and I’m already up way, way too late.

Edited February 1, 2018 by Surtur

[musekatcher]

5 hours ago, Surtur said:

Every time a 22 year old posts a picture of Buffalo Trace on their Instagram, all their followers instantly give that bottle huge respect because it now holds weight in their social circle. That is largely what created the boom, millenials and social media, combined with accessibility of “whiskey” such as honey Jack, it made whiskey approachable.

 

Social media is a marketeers dream, able to reach more impressionable people for less cost.    Sounds like BT is the new Hollister - just wearing the name promotes you to "cool".  It can backfire though, at some point it may become a badge of shame for the posers.  Lets watch and see if BT starts packaging their product with an updated sparkly cap, a distinctive regal bottle, and shipped in a colorful velvet bag - lol. 

[Clueby]

I see it with a lot of other brands but regular BT never seems to be in short supply here other than a shortage about 2 years ago. Pretty much every liquor store, grocery store, and Walgreens has cases of the stuff.

I could fill a truck with it in an hour. The regional distribution system mystifies me.

Seems to be the same way with Weller (to a slightly lesser degree) and Texas.

[Surtur]

27 minutes ago, musekatcher said:

 

Social media is a marketeers dream, able to reach more impressionable people for less cost.    Sounds like BT is the new Hollister - just wearing the name promotes you to "cool".  It can backfire though, at some point it may become a badge of shame for the posers.  Lets watch and see if BT starts packaging their product with an updated sparkly cap, a distinctive regal bottle, and shipped in a colorful velvet bag - lol. 

 

 That would be the day. I work at UCLA so I am very well-versed in hipsters. I have to give Buffalo Trace and Sazerac credit in that respect though, no other company has even remotely reached their success with new "enthusiasts". Just about everything the younger people salivate over is made at BT.

[Richnimrod]

5 minutes ago, Surtur said:

 

 That would be the day. I work at UCLA so I am very well-versed in hipsters. I have to give Buffalo Trace and Sazerac credit in that respect though, no other company has even remotely reached their success with new "enthusiasts". Just about everything the younger people salivate over is made at BT.

Isn't just barely possible that the young hipsters find the BT profile(s) tasty?    I know I do.

[Surtur]

16 minutes ago, Richnimrod said:

Isn't just barely possible that the young hipsters find the BT profile(s) tasty?    I know I do.

I think we all do. BT just simply won the younger market over, and it's quite impressive.

[smokinjoe]

13 hours ago, Surtur said:

 

Goodness, you must be a lawyer. Weller, PVW, BTAC, Blanton’s, and a few others have been raise to mythical status and near household names because of the boom combined with the shortage. You don’t think it’s good for their business to have thousands of people lined up and on lists to try and get maybe one of 5 bottles of Pappy? Again as the title of the thread, my observation is the supply shortage MAY be slightly inflated by the companies to drive up more demand. People are buying ORVW for $400, even though that’s secondary pricing and they store gets the profit, the fact someone is even willing to pay that is based solely on reputation. 

 

We’re never going to agree on this and that is perfectly fine, but you seem to be taking this a bit personally.

Nothing personal at all.  I’m just trying to follow your rationales on some of your statements/opinions.  

[flahute]

12 hours ago, Surtur said:

Edit: sorry, replying to Flahute

 

There could be a lot of factors involved. My town is a suburb is Los Angeles and rather small, whiskey of any type isn’t a big seller here so stock is aplenty. I commute and work In LA so I visit both my small town shops and the stores in the city. In California the only thing that has been really effected is the LEs.

 

My claim comes largely from the internet and the fever that has overtaken many newer and younger drinkers, which are a huge source of word of mouth for businesses. Every time a 22 year old posts a picture of Buffalo Trace on their Instagram, all their followers instantly give that bottle huge respect because it now holds weight in their social circle. That is largely what created the boom, millenials and social media, combined with accessibility of “whiskey” such as honey Jack, it made whiskey approachable. Millenials are huge into branding and marketing, which is where my claim that PERHAPS MAYBE the actual amount has been slightly overstated to ride this wave into the sunset. I’m really just throwing an alternate viewpoint out there, not going for an argument. Whether I’m right or wrong, let’s just all enjoy the bourbon we do have available.

 

But what the hell do I know, I’m a welder by trade and I’m already up way, way too late.

Nobody's arguing here! We discuss and disagree with each other and discuss some more. As you can see from this thread, some of us have been discussing this for quite a while now.

 

 

[The Black Tot]

5 minutes ago, flahute said:

Nobody's arguing here!

YOU'RE CRAZY! DISAGREE COMPLETELY!

[The Black Tot]

Probably old news to the fast movers on here, but I just read an article saying BT is now nearly finished the first of their newest warehouse expansion project. 58K barrel warehouses. One every 4 months, for the next 10 years!

 

To quote Daffy Duck, "Da-rewell, Da-rewell"

[Paddy]

^^^^Oh hell Paul, that's just another one of their smoke screens to make us think there's a production/supply shortage. 

 

Maybe they're gonna use all them new rickhouse's to drive up demand (and never place a barrel in 'em)!   

[The Black Tot]

Just so long as they do something about the CLIX vodka shortage!!!

[The Black Tot]

Just to calculate that, that's 30x58K = 1.74 MILLION more barrels aging in addition to all the capacity they have at present.

 

As Jerry Seinfeld said about McDonald's 58 Billion burgers sold:
 

"...I'll have one..."

[flahute]

13 hours ago, Surtur said:

My claim comes largely from the internet and the fever that has overtaken many newer and younger drinkers, which are a huge source of word of mouth for businesses. Every time a 22 year old posts a picture of Buffalo Trace on their Instagram, all their followers instantly give that bottle huge respect because it now holds weight in their social circle. That is largely what created the boom, millenials and social media, combined with accessibility of “whiskey” such as honey Jack, it made whiskey approachable. Millenials are huge into branding and marketing, which is where my claim that PERHAPS MAYBE the actual amount has been slightly overstated to ride this wave into the sunset. I’m really just throwing an alternate viewpoint out there, not going for an argument. Whether I’m right or wrong, let’s just all enjoy the bourbon we do have available.

 

But what the hell do I know, I’m a welder by trade and I’m already up way, way too late.

My take on this, and I've said this somewhere earlier on this thread as well as in other topics so I apologize to those who have read this before, is that it's about the current approach to any hobby/collectible that becomes massively popular.

Before the boom, enthusiasts enjoyed their bourbon at all levels without overly focusing on the expensive ones or the limited ones. If you dig deep into the archives of this site you will see old timers leaving Van Winkle and BTAC on the shelf because they didn't think bourbon should cost that much, or, because they didn't think bourbon would taste good at some of those older ages, or because they just plain didn't like it. Spending large sums of money on a bottle was not seen as a badge of honor. For many it was seen as excessive. These enthusiasts were quite happy with the lower and middle shelves and would slowly work their way up the shelves when they had exhausted all the possibilities below.

Then something changed. A new wave of "collectors" entered the hobby. That word is troublesome in and of itself because it implies a change of outlook from that of "consumable" to "collectible".

This new wave is generally not interested in exploring to find out what they like. They only want to go straight to the top. The first question they ask is "What is the best?" And then they go out and try to find it.

Of course while there is no such thing as a universal "best", you still end up reading or being told that Van Winkle is the best with BTAC coming in a close second. When you can't find that, what do you do? You go to other products in that distillers portfolio. Thus, you end up with all this new blood chasing Blanton's, Rock Hill Farm, Elmer T Lee, Eagle Rare, and yes, even standard Buffalo Trace. (And of course, the Wellers.)

Well, Sazerac didn't predict this boom. Nobody did. And because these whiskies take 7,8,9+ years to be ready, they couldn't exactly speed things up to meet demand right away.

This is why there are shortages.

 

PS - mad props to you for being a welder. That is important work.

[Paddy]

^^^and that's what got me into bunkering.  Hell, I live in Kentucky... we never thought there would be a day that we couldn't go out and pick up a Weller, Eagle Rare, Rock Hill or Blanton's!  Now, when you do see it, it's limit 1 and often times gone by the end or the day.  Like most of you know, a lot of products are harder to find here than elsewhere (due to an educated population and bourbon tourism).   

 

Back in the day, when the stores were flush with glut whiskey (most of it older than the age statement), there was no reason to overpay for a VanWinkle bottle.  There simply was too much other good whiskey on the shelves to bother!  Fast forward to the present day/same as Pappy mentality, and some of the locals that used to sell three or four cases of Weller a month now don't see that much product in a year.  Allotments are so tight, that many don't even get a sniff of W12 anymore.  Just a pittance of WSR and a dab (or two) of OWA. 

 

Those are lost sales for the store, distributor and distillery.  Regular drinkers (who believe it or not are still in the majority) that used to stop by once a month and pick up a handle of AAA 10 yr and W12 have been forced to move on.  Customers that have been forced to diversify are customers that may never come back.  Therefore, allocations and expansion abound!            

[PaulO]

1 hour ago, flahute said:

...

Before the boom, enthusiasts enjoyed their bourbon at all levels without overly focusing on the expensive ones or the limited ones. If you dig deep into the archives of this site you will see old timers leaving Van Winkle and BTAC on the shelf because they didn't think bourbon should cost that much, or, because they didn't think bourbon would taste good at some of those older ages, or because they just plain didn't like it. Spending large sums of money on a bottle was not seen as a badge of honor. For many it was seen as excessive. These enthusiasts were quite happy with the lower and middle shelves and would slowly work their way up the shelves when they had exhausted all the possibilities below.

...

Steve, I'm still like this; haven't changed.

That's a good description.

1 hour ago, Paddy said:

... Those are lost sales for the store, distributor and distillery.  Regular drinkers (who believe it or not are still in the majority) that used to stop by once a month and pick up a handle of AAA 10 yr and W12 have been forced to move on.  Customers that have been forced to diversify are customers that may never come back.  Therefore, allocations and expansion abound!            

Yeah, I've been forced to move on.  The BT products I used to enjoy are no where to be found.  It means I've been enjoying more and more: HH, Beam, WT, and 4R brands.  BT - I may never come back.    

[EarthQuake]

17 hours ago, Surtur said:

Edit: sorry, replying to Flahute

 

There could be a lot of factors involved. My town is a suburb is Los Angeles and rather small, whiskey of any type isn’t a big seller here so stock is aplenty. I commute and work In LA so I visit both my small town shops and the stores in the city. In California the only thing that has been really effected is the LEs.

 

My claim comes largely from the internet and the fever that has overtaken many newer and younger drinkers, which are a huge source of word of mouth for businesses. Every time a 22 year old posts a picture of Buffalo Trace on their Instagram, all their followers instantly give that bottle huge respect because it now holds weight in their social circle. That is largely what created the boom, millenials and social media, combined with accessibility of “whiskey” such as honey Jack, it made whiskey approachable. Millenials are huge into branding and marketing, which is where my claim that PERHAPS MAYBE the actual amount has been slightly overstated to ride this wave into the sunset. I’m really just throwing an alternate viewpoint out there, not going for an argument. Whether I’m right or wrong, let’s just all enjoy the bourbon we do have available.

 

But what the hell do I know, I’m a welder by trade and I’m already up way, way too late.

Lol everything is always the Millennial's fault. There's a number of flaws to this theory:

 

1. The ones you're talking about are not old enough to have been a significant factor to the rise in popularity of bourbon, which goes back about 10 years. The old timers on this site, and people closer to my age rage (35-ish) are though.

2. Millennials are more often then not, interested in craft whiskey. They want local, organic, fair trade, etc. They're not picking up Buffalo Trace for status, they don't even know what Buffalo Trace is. If they see it on a shelf, they would think it was from a large, faceless corporate distillery, which is a big red flag to them. Most people in my age range/area think the local Cedar Ridge and Few (out of Chicago) products are the bee's knees. Millennials have created and supported the craft whiskey boom, I'll give you that. Honestly though, If I start talking about Pappy, BTAC and OFBB, most of my friends think I'm having some sort of autistic fit. They (largely) don't know what this stuff is nor care.

3. Millennials usually don't have enough money to buy Pappy at retail (they are struggling to find jobs and pay off student loans as it is), let alone drive up the secondary price. The market for this is almost exclusively 35+ year old men (look at who is buying/selling on secondary groups and this is clear to see). Sure, there are trust fund kids who have money to burn, but that's a small group and stretches over various generations/age ranges.

4. There are a number of people in the 25-40 age range who are starting to appreciate bourbon and whiskey in general more, but from my experience they are very similar to the people on this site. They try a lot of different brands (or have favorites like Maker's Mark, Woodford, or Wild Turkey 101) and are hesitant to spend over say, $40 on a bottle. People act like anyone under the age of 60 can't possibly be frugal, but this is very far from the truth. Even those who are willing to spend more on alcohol struggle with spending "scotch prices" on bourbon.

5. The vast majority of kids in the 21-25 range do not drink whiskey straight, they certainly aren't out shopping for limited edition BT products. They drink cocktails and beer, and maybe eventually they'll have a decent old fashioned and start to explore whiskey more. Then they'll go looking for craft whiskies, because they think (from their experience with craft beer), that's where the good/interesting stuff is. I've seen this happen with nearly everyone I know who is even remotely interested in whiskey.

 

If you see a 22 year old post a bottle of BT on the Facebook, more likely than not this is simply a young person who is well on their way to appreciating whiskey, much the same as the various members of this site. Maybe they have family or friends who know more about whiskey and are introducing them to the basics/the good stuff.

 

In summary, Millennials created the bourbon boom as much as they created the housing bubble.

 

Saying all that, there are certainly people out there who buy all manner of whiskeys for status. But this doesn't apply to a specific age range. I was at a local lottery recently and an older (50+), wealthy man was fortunate enough to win the single bottle of Pappy 12. He didn't seem to know much about bourbon, but was very excited to get his trophy. Just because he didn't go and post about it on Facebook, doesn't mean he's any different from a 22 year old doing the same thing.

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by EarthQuake

[HoustonNit]

There seems to be a lot of discussion about the boom and who’s causing it but little about whether or not it has peaked.

I don’t expect there will be a bubble or peak but demand will slowly die down and also supply will catch up. Eventually everyone that wants a trophy bottle will have one. Eventually people buying multiples of things like RHF or W12 will stop through a combination of full bunkers and the fact that producers making massive expansions will have those bottles on the shelf more readily.

Another factor is people eventually will get tired of searching all over town for bottles they can’t find or only find at heavily inflated prices.

[HoustonNit]

To who’s causing the spike it’s baby boomers to millennials, seems to be one of the few products that’s considered cool across all age groups. It’s mostly male and mostly white but all age groups.

 

[EarthQuake]

59 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

To who’s causing the spike it’s baby boomers to millennials, seems to be one of the few products that’s considered cool across all age groups. It’s mostly male and mostly white but all age groups.

 

Yeah I would agree there, I think we're seeing increased interest in bourbon from all age ranges. Women too.

[Surtur]

15 hours ago, EarthQuake said:

Lol everything is always the Millennial's fault. There's a number of flaws to this theory:

 

1. The ones you're talking about are not old enough to have been a significant factor to the rise in popularity of bourbon, which goes back about 10 years. The old timers on this site, and people closer to my age rage (35-ish) are though.

2. Millennials are more often then not, interested in craft whiskey. They want local, organic, fair trade, etc. They're not picking up Buffalo Trace for status, they don't even know what Buffalo Trace is. If they see it on a shelf, they would think it was from a large, faceless corporate distillery, which is a big red flag to them. Most people in my age range/area think the local Cedar Ridge and Few (out of Chicago) products are the bee's knees. Millennials have created and supported the craft whiskey boom, I'll give you that. Honestly though, If I start talking about Pappy, BTAC and OFBB, most of my friends think I'm having some sort of autistic fit. They (largely) don't know what this stuff is nor care.

3. Millennials usually don't have enough money to buy Pappy at retail (they are struggling to find jobs and pay off student loans as it is), let alone drive up the secondary price. The market for this is almost exclusively 35+ year old men (look at who is buying/selling on secondary groups and this is clear to see). Sure, there are trust fund kids who have money to burn, but that's a small group and stretches over various generations/age ranges.

4. There are a number of people in the 25-40 age range who are starting to appreciate bourbon and whiskey in general more, but from my experience they are very similar to the people on this site. They try a lot of different brands (or have favorites like Maker's Mark, Woodford, or Wild Turkey 101) and are hesitant to spend over say, $40 on a bottle. People act like anyone under the age of 60 can't possibly be frugal, but this is very far from the truth. Even those who are willing to spend more on alcohol struggle with spending "scotch prices" on bourbon.

5. The vast majority of kids in the 21-25 range do not drink whiskey straight, they certainly aren't out shopping for limited edition BT products. They drink cocktails and beer, and maybe eventually they'll have a decent old fashioned and start to explore whiskey more. Then they'll go looking for craft whiskies, because they think (from their experience with craft beer), that's where the good/interesting stuff is. I've seen this happen with nearly everyone I know who is even remotely interested in whiskey.

 

If you see a 22 year old post a bottle of BT on the Facebook, more likely than not this is simply a young person who is well on their way to appreciating whiskey, much the same as the various members of this site. Maybe they have family or friends who know more about whiskey and are introducing them to the basics/the good stuff.

 

You're making an awful lot of sweeping generalizations and assumptions. There is a lot of discussion on what a millenial is, but technically at 35 you could be a millenial. It is basically for anyone who has grown up in the internet age, so 1980s birth date which would be anyone in the roughly 16-35 age range at the moment.

 

Secondly, as I said in a previous post I work at UCLA as a research & development welder. I work daily with students, undergrads, and post-docs to get their research accomplished, and I have been doing this for quite a few years now so I deal with millenials daily. They like single malt scotch and premium bourbon, as well as craft sure. There are bars here on campus stacked to the gills with high end whiskeys and they do shell out the money for them. Our Vons grocery store has Michters 10 among many others locked inside a case and they sell.

 

I disagree 21-25 year olds don't drink whiskey straight, in my experience they seem to prefer it over ice, but still straight. This of course applies to enthusiasts in that age range, but we are still a minority. Even a good number of 50-60 year olds drink their Jack Daniels and Crown Royal every night. As you said, if you start talking about BTAC and what a crime it is to drop an age statement, most people will think your mental stability is gone. However, a huge number of people in their 20s also live with their parents still, and have disposable income for whiskey.

 

I feel you took my use of the word millenial as derogatory, but it's simply an age range. Using the age group 16-35ish (you can google that, I'm not 100% on the dates) that group is directly responsible for the boom in social media. Social media has it's goods and bads, but when it comes to hobbies like bourbon collecting/hunting/drinking, what it has done is accelerate information, in a similar way to forums like this but in a huge fashion. So yes, let's say a 22 year old fledgling bourbon enthusiast tried his first bottle of Makers Mark and took to instagram to search for bourbon because his interest has been stimulated. He sees an established account that posts tons of pictures, and one of the pictures is Buffalo Trace. The 22 year old probably saw that once or twice before, plus it's affordable and it must be worth something if an instagram account is endorsing it. He goes and buys it, posts a picture, and the chain continues ad nauseum, and that's what happened with Weller. If you have instagram, I implore you to go hashtag search Weller. That's not even considering twitter, facebook, or youtube.

 

Something like this bourbon boom is complex and has a bunch of factors behind it, but social media is a huge one, along with flavored whiskeys. Millenials are not to be hung and bled for "causing this" but they are the first generation to have the ability to share their hobbies with the world instantly.

 

Ok, I hope I never have to type the word millenial again