Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[The Black Tot]

2 minutes ago, mikeydk said:

Economy of scale for sure.  I had a similar thing for GTS, I would have been happy for the $100 discount they offered you, from what I paid the shop for mine.  

Just so we're vodka clear on this, I told him no chance at 400.

 

That is not a discount, it's a 300 dollar gouge mark up.

[Paddy]

To add to Paul's comment, not enough stores have yet figured out that loyalty being rewarded is a two way street.  The guy that gets 3 bottles of Pappy per year and puts them in glass for 10x MSRP is not doing himself any favors.  Hell, those three bottles aren't even going to make his payroll!  There's lots of large and small shops that no longer get my business because they've failed to figure this out.  Maybe they don't mind, but many of my like minded friends are now doing the same as me, which is moving on.  When enough of us figure out that we don't have to be gouged, the shops will too. 

 

BTW, I'm not going to spend thousands of dollars in your store every year in order to pay a $1 to get a chance stand in line with folks that have never seen the inside of your store for one shot at a raffle bottle.  That non-customer has the same chance that I do.  That's insulting to me, and that's why I no longer to business with the L***** B***'s (well I did go in one on New Year's Day because someone had given me a gift card)!

 

Simply put, I've taken my business elsewhere where it's a bit more appreciated.  Maybe L***** B*** doesn't miss the 10K I've spent this year alone (yes, I do have a bit of a problem).  However, if you multiply me x 100 persons in a city the size of mine, it certainly will eventually add up. 

 

Rant over...     

[Harry in WashDC]

35 minutes ago, Paddy said:

[snipped some really good stuff]

 

Rant over...     

You aren't the only one with a bit of a problem.  AND, I recently casually pointed out to a store owner who was seemingly reluctant to place a special order (for wine, no less), how much of my problem, roughly, came through his store.  Next time I was in, I was offered a KC 25th Anniversary at 10% off the typical shelf price around here.  Yes, I bought it.  Now, if he'd just lower his basic BT price a little bit . . .

[smokinjoe]

I really do not think there is a totally equitable, fair, and proper way for any liquor store to handle their sales of allocated limited edition products.  For every scenario that seems “fair”, there will be people who for seemingly justified reasons feel slighted.  “Everyone’s a Winner” is just not possible, unfortunately.  

 

 

[Swamp55]

One of my regular liquor stores uses what I think is a reasonable approach.  During any given month, for every $100 you spend in the store, you get one raffle ticket.  (E.g., spend $300 and get 3 tickets.)  At the end of the month, the owner conducts a public drawing (complete with live music and free liquor tastings) and the winner gets to buy a limited edition whiskey at MSRP.  (You don't have to be present to win.)  Last month the LE was a Van Winkle Lot B.  This month, it's a 2017 4RSmBLE.  So, the more you spend, the greater your chance at getting a limited item at list price.  I'm OK with that approach.

[Paddy]

^^^You're correct Joe.  Not everyone is going to get what they want in this market, and I'm ok with that.  I'm not a big enough asshat to expect my guy to save me his Pappy allotment.  Hell, I don't even care if I get one, or not, 'cause there's plenty enough good whiskey to go around.  Most reasonable enthusiasts understand where we are now, and should 'get' this.  Anyone else, well... you're just being an asshat. 

 

All I (and all of us should) expect, is to be treated in a fair and friendly manner.  In other words, if I'm doing regular business with you, you should be treating me better than the fly by's (or is that buy's?).  First come, first serve works fine for me (and know that I'm not going to chase the truck for it either).  If you get 12 bottles and sell it out limit 1 (and I happen to be number 13), I'm perfectly fine with that.  At least no one had to play Fluffy stand up on your hind legs and beg for it.  What I have a problem with is stores that amass the product (often for months), then send mass emails out to thousands of folks offering a 'special opportunity event'.  Well, what about the 'special opportunity' you had to sell me that damn bottle the last 40 times I was in your store?  For my business, you owe me the opportunity to purchase what you have in the store... every time I'm in it! 

[smokinjoe]

20 minutes ago, Paddy said:

^^^You're correct Joe.  Not everyone is going to get what they want in this market, and I'm ok with that.  I'm not a big enough asshat to expect my guy to save me his Pappy allotment.  Hell, I don't even care if I get one, or not, 'cause there's plenty enough good whiskey to go around.  Most reasonable enthusiasts understand where we are now, and should 'get' this.  Anyone else, well... you're just being an asshat. 

 

All I (and all of us should) expect, is to be treated in a fair and friendly manner.  In other words, if I'm doing regular business with you, you should be treating me better than the fly by's (or is that buy's?).  First come, first serve works fine for me (and know that I'm not going to chase the truck for it either).  If you get 12 bottles and sell it out limit 1 (and I happen to be number 13), I'm perfectly fine with that.  At least no one had to play Fluffy stand up on your hind legs and beg for it.  What I have a problem with is stores that amass the product (often for months), then send mass emails out to thousands of folks offering a 'special opportunity event'.  Well, what about the 'special opportunity' you had to sell me that damn bottle the last 40 times I was in your store?  For my business, you owe me the opportunity to purchase what you have in the store... every time I'm in it! 

I agree, too.  Kentucky May be the most difficult state of all to get the chance at the limiteds, simply because it is the epicenter of the boom and it seems everybody is in the game.  Even those who have no interest in bourbon, but understand it’s “worth”.  This happens in other states, but nowhere to the degree from what I have seen in the Motherland.  

[kcgumbohead]

There was a window several years back that many here took good advatage of and as a result can be VERY selective about current market purchases, there are also many here that did not take advantage or were not in the market when that window was open. My perspective on this is from the well stocked, have or tried all the unicorns before they were unicorns side of the fence. Up thread a good point was made about the pricing on commons VS LEs. I don’t give a flying RA about modern Pappy, BTAC,ETL....pick em. What I do look at and what drives my purchases is OGB bib, 4Rps, WT 101/RB/RRsib and various HH BIBS,  get silly with those and I am shopping elseware because there are a LOT of elsewares with my personal favorites. This isn’t the best time to be a newbie on the bourbon path unless you can reign in your urge to try everything and I get it, been there. I can also say that I honestly believe those days will return, just give it time. Read the SB archives go slow and explore what is available. Its become almost cliche to read “there is so much good stuff at sane prices on shelves now” but it is true. I look at the glass cases too but I do it for entertainment. Right now if rumors are true WT 101 is getting a bit older, its already ubiquitous and damn good, and its getting better? Cool!,  you dont have Weller? oh well that Larceny is on sale, OGD 114 is on the shelf a couple dollars higher but just as delicious, whats that? You got 2 4R Barrels in,why yes I would like a taste, is that a JW Dant 750 in a glass bottle? pack it up. It kinda makes me sad the energy folks will waste as they walk through an aisle bulging with well priced, very delicious bourbons and ryes, many of which they have never tasted but becuase ETLs picture isn’t on it or is but its 300.00, they leave disappointed. Enjoy today because in 5-10 yrs ETL, Weller and the like will be back in force and priced according to whats in the bottle not what some overheated market  has assigned to it, that’s just a path to disappointment. A toast to good whiskey and patience my friends, Slainte.

[mikeydk]

20 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

Just so we're vodka clear on this, I told him no chance at 400.

 

That is not a discount, it's a 300 dollar gouge mark up.

I'm clear on it.    For me that would have been a discount from what I paid.  That was a one off purchase for me, and it was for a very special occasion with friends.  I'd never do it again, not even at the price they offered it to you.  

[Surtur]

On 6/14/2018 at 1:04 PM, mikeydk said:

 

This is the liquor store owners conundrum-  Sell it for the MSRP, and put all 5 bottles on the shelf, and the first person to see them buys them ALL because they can keep one, and flip the other four bottles for 4x the price, and then explain to each customer asking if they have any that they are sold out.  The person that got it at "retail" makes a huge profit and the store owners customers are the ones impacted.  

 

OR

 

They sell them at the secondary price themselves, risk alienating regular customers, but preventing resellers from clearing their shelves, and at least giving those that wish to try it or add to their collections, the OPPORTUNITY to purchase one albeit at the inflated price.  Hey, at least the shops HAVE them right?  

 

This is a really difficult position to be in for a shop owner.  They know the MSRP, they know the aftermarket too.  If they just let them go at MSRP, they're missing out on profit AND missing out on the chance to serve their community the chance of owning one.  

 

I believe at this point, that no one can be happy in this market.  I hate paying markup, but I love being able to find one at all and deciding whether to pull out the funds or not.  The stores that sell retail hate seeing all the bottles go out the door in one box knowing full well that someone just made rent on that purchase.  

 

I'm at the point of judging a store more on how they price the "commons" rather than how they price the uncommon bottles.  If they charge $62 for Noah's Mill and $160 for Weller 12, I'm never ever ever EVER shopping there, and it's not because of the Weller 12.  If that Weller 12 is $200, and their Noah's is $42, I'm a customer.  The "unicorns" and the pricing on them, is no longer a deciding factor for me.  If it's one I've never had and want to try, that's on me.  I understand the conundrum, but the shop owners can't have both.  They can't aftermarket the uncommon, and be on the high side of MSRP for the commons.  

 

 

 

 

Well markup is one thing, but charging 5-10x msrp is unforgivable in my book, especially considering the term “unicorn” to now include Weller 12, EC18, and ETL. Here is Southern California, there is no bottle I can’t find you, if said bottle still exists. Those secondary prices are now the only prices for these bottles, unless as mentioned, you’re buying from a big chain. I’m okay with most mid level bottles varying in price +/- $10 at various stores as that’s how it goes, but if I’m paying $150-$200 for a bottle of bourbon, it had better be something truly special, not ETL. I would like to add that I’m not a bitter shopper, these stores are free to do what they want, but there will always be an affordable alternative and I and many others will always find it.

[starhopper]

14 hours ago, mikeydk said:

I'm clear on it.    For me that would have been a discount from what I paid.  That was a one off purchase for me, and it was for a very special occasion with friends.  I'd never do it again, not even at the price they offered it to you.  

And I thought the $249 I paid for my 2017 GTS was crazy!  But, it WAS an eye opener as I'd never had GTS before.  Definitely not worth even $249.

Edited June 16, 2018 by starhopper

[BottledInBond]

5 hours ago, starhopper said:

And I thought the $249 I paid for my 2017 GTS was crazy!  But, it WAS an eye opener as I'd never had GTS before.  Definitely not worth even $249.

I wouldn’t pay $250 for a 2017 GTS. But I would pay more than $250 for several other vintages of GTS. I thought the 17’ was good whiskey but not mind blowing like the best years have been. So, I hope you don’t give up on GTS based on only trying the 17’. When GTS has it’s good years, it is just about as good as whiskey gets, in my opinion. 

[mikeydk]

9 hours ago, starhopper said:

And I thought the $249 I paid for my 2017 GTS was crazy!  But, it WAS an eye opener as I'd never had GTS before.  Definitely not worth even $249.

Agreed, most things are not "worth" the price paid, but for the experience for a group of us to share a difficult to obtain whiskey and talk about it for a few hours and catch up (two from out of state) on life, it was worth twice what even I paid for it.    

[kevinbrink]

On 6/14/2018 at 9:54 PM, Three quarks said:

I had a bad dream the other night. In the dream, I was in a liquor store and they were unpacking the week's shipment. There was a box of bottles that looked exactly like the older (red cap) OWAs. I was really happy to see them, but when I looked closer, they had a different brand name. There was one legitimate old paper label 375, which I set aside. I went to talk to the manager and when I came back to get the 375, the stock person said: "A customer just got that, sorry." Again, a dream, but I sure do miss the days when you could walk in and see cases of Weller stacked up. 

 

That could have been pretty close real life if you have ever seen a Jeffer's Creek bottle. 

[elmossle]

On 6/14/2018 at 9:39 PM, smokinjoe said:

I agree, too.  Kentucky May be the most difficult state of all to get the chance at the limiteds, simply because it is the epicenter of the boom and it seems everybody is in the game.  Even those who have no interest in bourbon, but understand it’s “worth”.  This happens in other states, but nowhere to the degree from what I have seen in the Motherland.  

 

Kentucky is by far the worst state to build a collection and get those unique or hard to get bottles. It most certainly has its advantages with a wide selection of Single Barrel Store Picks a plenty being one of them! While there are times I do miss "home" back in KY, there is NO WAY my collection would be what it is today without us moving out of state 4 years ago. There is a much better chance, depending on state and city, of finding something as simple as ECBP away from the commonwealth.

[elmossle]

On 6/15/2018 at 8:33 AM, kcgumbohead said:

There was a window several years back that many here took good advatage of and as a result can be VERY selective about current market purchases, there are also many here that did not take advantage or were not in the market when that window was open. My perspective on this is from the well stocked, have or tried all the unicorns before they were unicorns side of the fence. Up thread a good point was made about the pricing on commons VS LEs. I don’t give a flying RA about modern Pappy, BTAC,ETL....pick em. What I do look at and what drives my purchases is OGB bib, 4Rps, WT 101/RB/RRsib and various HH BIBS,  get silly with those and I am shopping elseware because there are a LOT of elsewares with my personal favorites. This isn’t the best time to be a newbie on the bourbon path unless you can reign in your urge to try everything and I get it, been there. I can also say that I honestly believe those days will return, just give it time. Read the SB archives go slow and explore what is available. Its become almost cliche to read “there is so much good stuff at sane prices on shelves now” but it is true. I look at the glass cases too but I do it for entertainment. Right now if rumors are true WT 101 is getting a bit older, its already ubiquitous and damn good, and its getting better? Cool!,  you dont have Weller? oh well that Larceny is on sale, OGD 114 is on the shelf a couple dollars higher but just as delicious, whats that? You got 2 4R Barrels in,why yes I would like a taste, is that a JW Dant 750 in a glass bottle? pack it up. It kinda makes me sad the energy folks will waste as they walk through an aisle bulging with well priced, very delicious bourbons and ryes, many of which they have never tasted but becuase ETLs picture isn’t on it or is but its 300.00, they leave disappointed. Enjoy today because in 5-10 yrs ETL, Weller and the like will be back in force and priced according to whats in the bottle not what some overheated market  has assigned to it, that’s just a path to disappointment. A toast to good whiskey and patience my friends, Slainte.

 

All very good points. However, another aspect that new folks entering the bourbon "game/hunt" now versus a few years ago are store relationships. Most of us know the biggest reason why we get a bottle of LE's and someone else doesn't is because we have built a relationship over the years with a manager or store owner. It takes time, effort, and most importantly money to build these relationships and this does not happen overnight. Most quality stores already have a group of individuals they consider their top customers or folks they will do whatever they can to get them what is been requested. Lets face it, more and more LE's are going to bars and restaurants leaving less and less for Liquor Stores who have more and more people walking in asking the products. IMO, it is very hard for a established LS owner to think about setting something aside for someone who might be spending a few grand a year on bourbon in the last year or two when he has a few people that have been helping them keep the lights on and doors open buying bourbon and other items for the last 5 to 10 years.

 

Can it be done, sure it can. I have had to start over twice now in the past 4 years with new stores. And I can tell you I am having the best luck buying from stores that I already have had contact with in previous states because of the past history I developed with them. 

 

Timing is another part that is causing the markup at these stores. If 5 years ago you had 3 people coming asking for a bottle of GTS and you knew you would get in a case each year, the math was simple and everyone was happy. Now, you might have a dozen established customers all coming in looking for those same 3 bottles or worse a single bottle because your other 2 went to a bar and restaurant in town. Do you make one person happy and piss off your 11 other customers, or do you jackup the price of it knowing those 12 customers will not pay the price but somebody that pops in the store twice a year will.

 

Either way, like someone said previously, there is plenty of great bourbon on the shelves these days, you just have to know where to find it. Find them, and you do not need to chase or pay up for the LE's unless they fall in your lap. 

[musekatcher]

The last posts reveal a couple things that have to be repeated: there are plenty of really good bourbon's out there for less that aren't featured in Maxim, Fortune, or movies, and patience will reward us eventually.  The exception is for those who need to host guests or supply a party, where expectations insist on something less common, but notable. For the latter, I usually key on $30 wine or $60 whiskey, bourbon or Irish.  I never store/bring scotch, because its pervasive, and impressive scotch is silly expensive. 

[Marekv8]

16 minutes ago, musekatcher said:

The last posts reveal a couple things that have to be repeated: there are plenty of really good bourbon's out there for less that aren't featured in Maxim, Fortune, or movies, and patience will reward us eventually.  The exception is for those who need to host guests or supply a party, where expectations insist on something less common, but notable. For the latter, I usually key on $30 wine or $60 whiskey, bourbon or Irish.  I never store/bring scotch, because its pervasive, and impressive scotch is silly expensive. 

 

I'm curious as to what you consider an "impressive Scotch"-- I typically find that entry-level peated expressions like Lagavulin 16, Talisker 10, Ardbeg 10 or Highland Park 12 tend to delight and encourage trial & curious conversation (especially with millennials, typically female).

[musekatcher]

4 hours ago, Marekv8 said:

 

I'm curious as to what you consider an "impressive Scotch"-- I typically find that entry-level peated expressions like Lagavulin 16, Talisker 10, Ardbeg 10 or Highland Park 12 tend to delight and encourage trial & curious conversation (especially with millennials, typically female).

 

Interesting, the last time I priced scotch (7 years ago?) it was running much higher than Bourbon.  I'm pretty sure I paid close to $50 for Glenkinchie 12?  Looks like its selling under $40 now.  Maybe scotch has been displaced in  the states a bit by the Bourbon craze?

[HoustonNit]

 
Interesting, the last time I priced scotch (7 years ago?) it was running much higher than Bourbon.  I'm pretty sure I paid close to $50 for Glenkinchie 12?  Looks like its selling under $40 now.  Maybe scotch has been displaced in  the states a bit by the Bourbon craze?

Wonder if the exchange rate helps here.

[kevinbrink]

20 hours ago, musekatcher said:

 

Interesting, the last time I priced scotch (7 years ago?) it was running much higher than Bourbon.  I'm pretty sure I paid close to $50 for Glenkinchie 12?  Looks like its selling under $40 now.  Maybe scotch has been displaced in  the states a bit by the Bourbon craze?

I think there have been some brands looking to provide value at a lower price in scotch, off the top of my head Tomatin, Loch Lommond and Glen Moray 12 year olds are enjoyable and can be had at $30 here,  Deanston, Glenmorangie, Ardbeg, Laphroaig, Toumintoul, Glenfarclas, Auchentoshan, Glenlivet, Glen Grant, Aberfeldy and Glenfiddich are all right around $40. I don't know if it's been displaced but the value to dollar is certainly getting closer. 

[kevinbrink]

9 hours ago, Three quarks said:

I hadn't KB, but I looked it up and you are not kidding. Wow! Funny thing is that, with the scarcity of the other, I would probably buy the Jeffers Creek, if it was wheated.

 

It is one of the many brands Sazerac uses to sell Barton bourbon

[MTTS88]

The boom will never peak in Washington. The prices here are unfortunate. Fortunately, I live within 30mins of the Oregon border and also have reason to be in a variety of other states thanks to work. The boom will live on in Washington from the time deregulation was done tell Washington ceases to be. 

 

- The opinion of a disgruntled Washingtonian 

[Vosgar]

I couldn't believe this line in an email I received from a large liquor store chain: "A connoisseur's bourbon at an everyday price". An innocent enough statement, but the bourbon they were referring to was advertised for $79.99. If that's considered a normal/reasonable price for an everyday pour type of bottle, then the boom is still in full gonzo mode.

 

Although it's irrelevant to my point, the bottle being promoted was I.W. Harper 15yr. (in case you were wondering)

[Kane]

1 minute ago, Vosgar said:

I couldn't believe this line in an email I received from a large liquor store chain: "A connoisseur's bourbon at an everyday price". An innocent enough statement, but the bourbon they were referring to was advertised for $79.99. If that's considered a normal/reasonable price for an everyday pour type of bottle, then the boom is still in full gonzo mode.

 

Although it's irrelevant to my point, the bottle being promoted was I.W. Harper 15yr. (in case you were wondering)

I hate to be pedantic, but an "everyday" price should be something you can expect to see, well, everyday, by definition. Why is paying a normal price a luxury all of a sudden?