Jump to content

Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked


BigBoldBully

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, flahute said:

My take on this, and I've said this somewhere earlier on this thread as well as in other topics so I apologize to those who have read this before, is that it's about the current approach to any hobby/collectible that becomes massively popular.

Before the boom, enthusiasts enjoyed their bourbon at all levels without overly focusing on the expensive ones or the limited ones. If you dig deep into the archives of this site you will see old timers leaving Van Winkle and BTAC on the shelf because they didn't think bourbon should cost that much, or, because they didn't think bourbon would taste good at some of those older ages, or because they just plain didn't like it. Spending large sums of money on a bottle was not seen as a badge of honor. For many it was seen as excessive. These enthusiasts were quite happy with the lower and middle shelves and would slowly work their way up the shelves when they had exhausted all the possibilities below.

Then something changed. A new wave of "collectors" entered the hobby. That word is troublesome in and of itself because it implies a change of outlook from that of "consumable" to "collectible".

This new wave is generally not interested in exploring to find out what they like. They only want to go straight to the top. The first question they ask is "What is the best?" And then they go out and try to find it.

Of course while there is no such thing as a universal "best", you still end up reading or being told that Van Winkle is the best with BTAC coming in a close second. When you can't find that, what do you do? You go to other products in that distillers portfolio. Thus, you end up with all this new blood chasing Blanton's, Rock Hill Farm, Elmer T Lee, Eagle Rare, and yes, even standard Buffalo Trace. (And of course, the Wellers.)

Well, Sazerac didn't predict this boom. Nobody did. And because these whiskies take 7,8,9+ years to be ready, they couldn't exactly speed things up to meet demand right away.

This is why there are shortages.

 

PS - mad props to you for being a welder. That is important work.

First off, thank you, I have massively enjoyed being a welder.

 

I agree with you fully. This is why a month or so ago I posted the topic about new drinkers going straight to the top. 

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, flahute said:

Nobody's arguing here! 

 

 

Just wait til I jump in to ask why if you dislike what someone is saying they must be a lawyer??:angry:

  • I like it 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was perusing really old SB threads and thought this post by Chuck Cowdery was pretty funny given the current boom:

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, jvd99 said:

I was perusing really old SB threads and thought this post by Chuck Cowdery was pretty funny given the current boom:

 

 

Was that really Julian Van Winkle posting in that thread?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, FasterHorses said:

Was that really Julian Van Winkle posting in that thread?

What Paddy said.  Also, that's really Chuck, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Paddy said:

^^^^Yes.

 

6 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

What Paddy said.  Also, that's really Chuck, too.

This is possibly the coolest website in the last 200 years.

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was perusing really old SB threads and thought this post by Chuck Cowdery was pretty funny given the current boom:
 
 

There seems to a serious issue with this site and Tapatalk. I get a link to a thread about registering for a block against telemarketers.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

May not be an indication of overall boom but RHF and Weller still top the demand list. Some of the stores in the local ABC county would hold a bottle if you saw it in their online inventory and would call. One of those stores who held bottles for me as recently as 6 months ago is no longer doing it. I called for RHF last week and OWA today and was told they are not taking names and it’s first come first serve, one bottle per customer. 

 

I got got a bit more color today and the counter guy said they were having problems with people showing up before the store opened and following trucks around. He said 5 people were in line today and 45 people had called before the store opened. Yes, OWA @$23 is a good deal, but you could get it last year if you were a bit diligent.  Now, you apparently need to have a day job that doesn’t require your presence at 10a and the willingness to chase. I have other sources but it sucks to lose a reliable retailer who sold at the low end of MSRP. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Charlutz said:

May not be an indication of overall boom but RHF and Weller still top the demand list. Some of the stores in the local ABC county would hold a bottle if you saw it in their online inventory and would call. One of those stores who held bottles for me as recently as 6 months ago is no longer doing it. I called for RHF last week and OWA today and was told they are not taking names and it’s first come first serve, one bottle per customer. 

 

I got got a bit more color today and the counter guy said they were having problems with people showing up before the store opened and following trucks around. He said 5 people were in line today and 45 people had called before the store opened. Yes, OWA @$23 is a good deal, but you could get it last year if you were a bit diligent.  Now, you apparently need to have a day job that doesn’t require your presence at 10a and the willingness to chase. I have other sources but it sucks to lose a reliable retailer who sold at the low end of MSRP. 

 

Because chasing the trucks and flipping anything with the name Weller on the secondary market pays as much as a part time job.  Still.

 

This boom may have slowed a bit, but it does not appear to have peaked.  Of course we'll be able to identify the peak only after we've passed it and are well into the decline.

Edited by miller542
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is my favorite thread on SB, always an entertaining read. A few weeks of minimal posting and then Boom, lots of great conversations and opinions, then a few weeks later everyone gets burned out and Bust again. If only the bourbon market was like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/23/2015 at 11:11 AM, BigBoldBully said:

My hope is that this thread can serve as a place to collect our observations and other evidence relevant to whether the bourbon boom has finally reached its zenith. ..............Maybe if this thread can stay active for a good while we will end up with a conveniently concentrated repository.

^^^^^^^^ From the original post ^^^^^^^^

 

I find it interesting that this thread has been active for almost 3 years

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, miller542 said:

 

Because chasing the trucks and flipping anything with the name Weller on the secondary market pays as much as a part time job.  Still.

 

This boom may have slowed a bit, but it does not appear to have peaked.  Of course we'll be able to identify the peak only after we've passed it and are well into the decline.

I’m not sure how anyone makes much money at this without having mules to buy multiple bottles. Secondary value of OWA is $50? $60? So for each bottle you make $25 or $35 but it costs you 2 hours to chase the bottle down, buy it and then the time to sell it, box it up and ship it. Plus, there are risks of loss in breakage or if the shipper identifies the bottle as an illegal shipment and confiscates it. That makes your hourly profit $10-20? Who wants to go through that much trouble and break the law for a job that pays just over minimum wage? Facts say it’s worth it to a lot of people because it happens but it makes no sense to me. 

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm just surprised the ~6yr ago surge in Weller production hasn't already started making OWA a fool's errand to flip.

 

Perhaps they are witholding a significant share of it for VW products, W12, and WLW. That would be good if true.

 

Ah well, I still have a lot bunkered and in the long run, it's wheater city.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Charlutz said:

....... it makes no sense to me. 

 

I agree.  The premium some are willing to pay just to have anything Weller is absurd.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a 1.75 of Antique on eBay currently going for $170. What's that saying about a fool and his money...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

I'm just surprised the ~6yr ago surge in Weller production hasn't already started making OWA a fool's errand to flip.

 

Perhaps they are witholding a significant share of it for VW products, W12, and WLW. That would be good if true.

 

Ah well, I still have a lot bunkered and in the long run, it's wheater city.

 

 

Mentioned this on another thread, but OWA availability has picked up significantly in the Chicago market. Seeing it at local liquor stores where it has been absent for years. Picked up a 1L for under $40 and left some on the shelf. Lots of WSR to be had as well, although that was always a relatively easy find. Speculated that this might be a sign of production catching up with demand, but I suppose it could also be a regional variance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, hugh jass said:

Mentioned this on another thread, but OWA availability has picked up significantly in the Chicago market. Seeing it at local liquor stores where it has been absent for years. Picked up a 1L for under $40 and left some on the shelf. Lots of WSR to be had as well, although that was always a relatively easy find. Speculated that this might be a sign of production catching up with demand, but I suppose it could also be a regional variance. 

The local allocations of Old Rip 10 and Lot B were up last fall too. And the private pick OWA’s start at 7 and I've seen them as high as 9yr. All good signs to me that the wheated mashbill production ramped significantly a decade or so ago. And that bodes well(er) for all of us. 

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have had probably 8 different private selection picks of OWA and currently have 3 and I've never seen an age statement on them.  Is that something that the store provided you from the barrel or is it actually on the sticker?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Clueby said:

I have had probably 8 different private selection picks of OWA and currently have 3 and I've never seen an age statement on them.  Is that something that the store provided you from the barrel or is it actually on the sticker?

 

The store should have that information Clueby. 

 

Biba! Joe

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've been seeing pictures and posts around the internet lately of a ton of 1.75 bottles of Weller SR and 12 year in the new bottle. Seems strange to me that it would be released in that bottle given the current state of production. I would love to find a 1.75 W12 myself, but at least in 750s more people could get a shot at getting one.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, fishnbowljoe said:

 

The store should have that information Clueby. 

 

Biba! Joe

This^. Whoever did the pick can verify the age from the fill date on the barrelhead. Though I have seen some private pick stickers that note the date barreled and the date bottled. Joe has tasted one in particular that I have in mind :) 

Edited by Old Dusty
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Clueby said:

Is that something that the store provided you from the barrel or is it actually on the sticker?

 

This version had it on the sticker. I've got an Elijah Craig PS with a 12-year statement as well.

 

IMG_8078.thumb.jpg.9c7cc03e6bc03dbce990d58f6402ddd7.jpg

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Marekv8 said:

 

This version had it on the sticker. I've got an Elijah Craig PS with a 12-year statement as well.

 

IMG_8078.thumb.jpg.9c7cc03e6bc03dbce990d58f6402ddd7.jpg

Is that a barrel for an individual?

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, FasterHorses said:

Is that a barrel for an individual?

I would tend to use the term "legend."

  • I like it 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.