Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[PaulO]

I don't know how much of the Old Fitz 12 HH is releasing anymore.  Probably not a lot, maybe gift shop only.  I used to pass it around $39, then go pick up W 12 @ $28.  At least I managed to drink a couple Old Fitz 12 back in the day (and saved one too).

As far as auctions go - it just takes two people to start bidding against each other. 

[BottledInBond]

14 hours ago, PaulO said:

I don't know how much of the Old Fitz 12 HH is releasing anymore.  Probably not a lot, maybe gift shop only.  I used to pass it around $39, then go pick up W 12 @ $28.  At least I managed to drink a couple Old Fitz 12 back in the day (and saved one too).

As far as auctions go - it just takes two people to start bidding against each other. 

It hasn’t been at the gift shop the last 3 or 4 times I’ve been there. I’m sure most of the older barrels they had available got redirected into this recent 11 year BIB Old Fitz at an extra ~$90 per bottle. It is a cool looking bottle at least.......

[fishnbowljoe]

I wonder what the date on that bottle of VSOF 12 is. I was lucky enough to have found several from the old BHC. They were great. What was bottled after the demise of the BHC is another story.  Another member here contacted me regarding the first post BHC bottling of the VSOF 12. He said he bought a few bottles, and the first one he opened was less than stellar. He was wondering if it was him or what. He offered to send me one to get my opinion on it. I agreed, and a week or so later, my bottle arrived. I opened it immediately and had a healthy pour. WTF?! I won't say it was rancid, but it was barely drinkable. I contacted the member that sent me the bottle and told him he wasn't imagining things. That VSOF 12 wasn't very good at all. After seeing it on the shelves for only a few months, it disappeared.  

 

Fast forward a few years. A number of us were hanging out at the GN during the KBF, when Gary Gilman shows up with a VSOF 12 in hand. Long story short, HH reintroduced it. Gary graciously opened his bottle for a number of us to taste. Now this was more like it.   It tasted great! I believe that it was Liquor World that had a number of bottles for $34.99. I drove right over and bought a couple. Sadly, those were the last ones I ever bought. Considering the price on the newest version, they will probably remain so. 

 

Biba! Joe

[The Black Tot]

Very interesting about the variability of flavor on the VSOF. I tried one once at a sampler and left thinking "don't need that one". I suppose I tried one of the less-goodies.

 

Moot point now that, as stated above, they've found a higher price destination for this whiskey.

 

 

[beasled]

I've had good experience with VSOF 12, I even preferred it to Weller 12. 

 

Long gone on these shores, of course. 

[PaulO]

I'll agree with above comments.  I had noticed some definite variability between different batches of Old Fitz BIB, and the VSOF 12 over the years.  I'll say the same for Larceny too.  

[kcgumbohead]

This has some legs, thats for damn sure, both the boom and this thread!! Its fun reading through all the prognostications and it will be even more fun to see in 5-10 yrs from now, maybe even sooner, but I'll say 2023 on to see what shape the bourbon landscape is in. Vast quantities have been and continue to be put away, the real uptick gaining traction starting in maybe 2013? Weller is already in better shape than the last few years if the "what did you buy today thread" is any indication. Boutique bottle shapes of legacy brands at new boutique pricing and celebrity brands popping up with greater frequency, all while ever expanding oceans of whiskey sleep in warehouses from coast to coast. Feels like the initial breezes of the winds of change may be starting to blow ever so slightly.

[The Black Tot]

The BT statement from the other day that Chuck reposted in his blog shows that although BT expanded quite a bit, the exponential lift off is happening this year and next year - probably mostly next year when the new fermentation, and cooking equipment gooses their production capacity.

 

Harlan Wheatley mentioned that they've gone from filling 12K barrels in 1995 to 200K this year, but just this year they're adding more than 160K spaces in new rack houses.

 

Better late than never.

Edited June 13, 2018 by The Black Tot

[mikeydk]

I believe we are in a collectors market right now.  I wonder when the bunkers will be filled to capacity, and tastes change to something new.  Already, I'm hearing MEZCAL MEZCAL MEZCAL from people in their mid-twenties.  I'm curious what will happen to the aftermarket in five years when the hoarded supply begins to overtake the collecting population.  When the hoarded supply overtakes the collectors, the prices typically collapse except in the case of extremely rare items.  It's happened with Beanies, Hot Wheels, GI Joes, Star Wars, etc..  The prices are higher, because of the artificial "scarcity" due to distribution issues, the inability for Ebay to redistribute items to areas that have demand but no supply sources other than heavily marked up ones, and the stockpiling mentality that we have.  Not much gets left on a shelf anymore.  W12?  Gotta get them all to bunker!  When the increasing supply inevitably catches up, there will be a lot of bunkers bursting.  

 

I predict that in 5 years, lots of currently scarce things, will be more readily available at retail pricing as the insanity cools off, and the collectors market wanes.  Other than Pappy of course.  

[The Black Tot]

2 minutes ago, mikeydk said:

I believe we are in a collectors market right now.  I wonder when the bunkers will be filled to capacity, and tastes change to something new.  Already, I'm hearing MEZCAL MEZCAL MEZCAL from people in their mid-twenties.  I'm curious what will happen to the aftermarket in five years when the hoarded supply begins to overtake the collecting population.  When the hoarded supply overtakes the collectors, the prices typically collapse except in the case of extremely rare items.  It's happened with Beanies, Hot Wheels, GI Joes, Star Wars, etc..  The prices are higher, because of the artificial "scarcity" due to distribution issues, the inability for Ebay to redistribute items to areas that have demand but no supply sources other than heavily marked up ones, and the stockpiling mentality that we have.  Not much gets left on a shelf anymore.  W12?  Gotta get them all to bunker!  When the increasing supply inevitably catches up, there will be a lot of bunkers bursting.  

 

I predict that in 5 years, lots of currently scarce things, will be more readily available at retail pricing as the insanity cools off, and the collectors market wanes.  Other than Pappy of course.  

 

This. But the kiddos are going to have a hard time with mezcal since the agave harvests have been very bad for a few years running. I haven't checked the state of things this year though. The consecutive bad European grape harvests are really putting pressure on the wine market, too. Desperate Housewives are going to have to switch to vodka and gin.

 

Bunkers are still building even in this time of tight supply. There are probably more bottles stocked up in houses than at any time in US history. That adds up to eventual sales back pressure.

[Mako254]

2 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

The BT statement from the other day that Chuck reposted in his blog shows that although BT expanded quite a bit, the exponential lift off is happening this year and next year - probably mostly next year when the new fermentation, and cooking equipment gooses their production capacity.

 

Harlan Wheatley mentioned that they've gone from filling 12K barrels in 1995 to 200K this year, but just this year they're adding more than 160K spaces in new rack houses.

 

Better late than never.

 

2028 should be a hell of a year for bourbon. 

[The Black Tot]

56 minutes ago, Mako254 said:

 

2028 should be a hell of a year for bourbon. 

I'll drink to that!

[Surtur]

This past weekend I was in the San Luis Obispo/Pismo Beach area and I went in 5 liquor stores total. All 5 had 3-6 bottles of Weller 12 on their shelves for $169-$200. They all had several bottles of various VW, BTAC and others but I was looking for Weller so that was my focus. After finding the price in each store I just left since I don’t support stores that price gouge in that fashion, so I don’t buy anything at all. This is in stark contrast to even one year ago when I could never find any Weller at all, at any price. Is this a good sign? It would seem to me in this case, either A) stock has increased quite a bit, or people are no longer willing to pay secondary prices when they realize after all, it is just bourbon. These stores are banking on the random person coming in and paying that, but good luck selling the other 5.

 

On the other hand, my local store hasn’t received really anything at all this whole year. Their shelves are getting quite barren but this could also be more related to my area not being much into bourbon so they are in no hurry to re-stock.

[Billy Reis]

The expansions alone in 5 to 10 years should put us in a bit of a Bourbon glut. This along with the pending tariff wars could put us drinkers in a great position for some great economical pours. I believe many of the Distilleries were banking on the Chinese and Indian markets opening up. Right now, I'm not so sure. I'm definetly not paying secondary prices when there are so many good regular price bottles out there. IE, 4 Roses SiB.

[The Black Tot]

Correction to my post above: the agave supply is not the problem for tequila, speculative pricing is. Agave is selling for about 7 times its normal price right now, putting the squeeze on smaller producers who can't strike large futures agreements.

 

Based on previous similar cycles, agave prices should crash again and tequila will be cheap to make starting in about 2021, which isn't THAT far away.

[musekatcher]

3 hours ago, Surtur said:

so I don’t buy anything at all. This is in stark contrast to even one year ago when I could never find any Weller at all, at any price.

I practice the same doctrine, not rewarding bad behavior.  I haven't seen a bottle of Blanton's on my local shelves in 3 years now.  That's my barometer. 

 

For many reasons, I think its a fad and identity right now, which will change because those always change.  I still think there will be a glut, pricing will pull back some but not all the way, and quality and AS will go back up. 

[starhopper]

Local LS got in four bottles of ETL yesterday - put them on the top shelf behind the counter for $100ea.  Ridiculous. It's JUST NOT THAT GOOD FOLKS!

Edited June 14, 2018 by starhopper

[The Black Tot]

38 minutes ago, starhopper said:

Local LS got in four bottles of ETL yesterday - put them on the top shelf behind the counter for $100ea.  Ridiculous. It's JUST NOT THAT GOOD FOLKS!

Yeah, but they get bought by the FOMO folks, paying 100 because they just have to find that out for themselves.

[The Black Tot]

Honestly, with so many of the small stores engaged in the pseudo-secondary, the picture has flipped.

 

We used to say the little guys were the heroes and the big box stores were the devil - but the big box stores are now the best bet for buying the mid to upper shelf at MSRP.

 

One of my few remaining stores told me he held me a GTS this year. I was over the moon. I got there and he wanted $400. Finito.

[mikeydk]

11 hours ago, Surtur said:

This past weekend I was in the San Luis Obispo/Pismo Beach area and I went in 5 liquor stores total. All 5 had 3-6 bottles of Weller 12 on their shelves for $169-$200. They all had several bottles of various VW, BTAC and others but I was looking for Weller so that was my focus. After finding the price in each store I just left since I don’t support stores that price gouge in that fashion, so I don’t buy anything at all. This is in stark contrast to even one year ago when I could never find any Weller at all, at any price. Is this a good sign? It would seem to me in this case, either A) stock has increased quite a bit, or people are no longer willing to pay secondary prices when they realize after all, it is just bourbon. These stores are banking on the random person coming in and paying that, but good luck selling the other 5.

 

On the other hand, my local store hasn’t received really anything at all this whole year. Their shelves are getting quite barren but this could also be more related to my area not being much into bourbon so they are in no hurry to re-stock.

 

This is the liquor store owners conundrum-  Sell it for the MSRP, and put all 5 bottles on the shelf, and the first person to see them buys them ALL because they can keep one, and flip the other four bottles for 4x the price, and then explain to each customer asking if they have any that they are sold out.  The person that got it at "retail" makes a huge profit and the store owners customers are the ones impacted.  

 

OR

 

They sell them at the secondary price themselves, risk alienating regular customers, but preventing resellers from clearing their shelves, and at least giving those that wish to try it or add to their collections, the OPPORTUNITY to purchase one albeit at the inflated price.  Hey, at least the shops HAVE them right?  

 

This is a really difficult position to be in for a shop owner.  They know the MSRP, they know the aftermarket too.  If they just let them go at MSRP, they're missing out on profit AND missing out on the chance to serve their community the chance of owning one.  

 

I believe at this point, that no one can be happy in this market.  I hate paying markup, but I love being able to find one at all and deciding whether to pull out the funds or not.  The stores that sell retail hate seeing all the bottles go out the door in one box knowing full well that someone just made rent on that purchase.  

 

I'm at the point of judging a store more on how they price the "commons" rather than how they price the uncommon bottles.  If they charge $62 for Noah's Mill and $160 for Weller 12, I'm never ever ever EVER shopping there, and it's not because of the Weller 12.  If that Weller 12 is $200, and their Noah's is $42, I'm a customer.  The "unicorns" and the pricing on them, is no longer a deciding factor for me.  If it's one I've never had and want to try, that's on me.  I understand the conundrum, but the shop owners can't have both.  They can't aftermarket the uncommon, and be on the high side of MSRP for the commons.  

 

 

 

[mikeydk]

56 minutes ago, starhopper said:

Local LS got in four bottles of ETL yesterday - put them on the top shelf behind the counter for $100ea.  Ridiculous. It's JUST NOT THAT GOOD FOLKS!

Agreed.  It's not a "quality" or "worth it" market though.  It's a collectors market.  A hype market.  A never had it market.  They'll sadly, sell for that price, and I'll bet when they move 2 of them, the other two go to $125.  

[The Black Tot]

There is the third option.

 

Recognize the faces of your regular customers, and sell them one bottle each at MSRP.

 

The distilleries don't release this stuff for low MSRPs as a reward to the LS owner to gouge the customers - the MSRPs are low to say thank you to the drinkers who buy the regular products year round.

[mikeydk]

15 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

Honestly, with so many of the small stores engaged in the pseudo-secondary, the picture has flipped.

 

We used to say the little guys were the heroes and the big box stores were the devil - but the big box stores are now the best bet for buying the mid to upper shelf at MSRP.

 

One of my few remaining stores told me he held me a GTS this year. I was over the moon. I got there and he wanted $400. Finito.

Economy of scale for sure.  I had a similar thing for GTS, I would have been happy for the $100 discount they offered you, from what I paid the shop for mine.   

 

I don't like the idea of "raffles" but I'd rather pay $1 for the chance to buy at MSRP, than to never see it.  Better odds than PowerBall.  I'd rather liquor stores did raffles instead.  Levels the playing field a bit I suppose.  Shops make the money on the raffle tickets, buyers get 1 bottle at MSRP.  Done.  

[mikeydk]

2 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

There is the third option.

 

Recognize the faces of your regular customers, and sell them one bottle each at MSRP.

 

The distilleries don't release this stuff for low MSRPs as a reward to the LS owner to gouge the customers - the MSRPs are low to say thank you to the drinkers who buy the regular products year round.

I'm down for a loyalty program too.   

[Clueby]

5 minutes ago, mikeydk said:

 

This is the liquor store owners conundrum-  Sell it for the MSRP, and put all 5 bottles on the shelf, and the first person to see them buys them ALL because they can keep one, and flip the other four bottles for 4x the price, and then explain to each customer asking if they have any that they are sold out.  The person that got it at "retail" makes a huge profit and the store owners customers are the ones impacted.  

 

OR

 

They sell them at the secondary price themselves, risk alienating regular customers, but preventing resellers from clearing their shelves, and at least giving those that wish to try it or add to their collections, the OPPORTUNITY to purchase one albeit at the inflated price.  Hey, at least the shops HAVE them right?  

 

This is a really difficult position to be in for a shop owner.  They know the MSRP, they know the aftermarket too.  If they just let them go at MSRP, they're missing out on profit AND missing out on the chance to serve their community the chance of owning one.  

 

I believe at this point, that no one can be happy in this market.  I hate paying markup, but I love being able to find one at all and deciding whether to pull out the funds or not.  The stores that sell retail hate seeing all the bottles go out the door in one box knowing full well that someone just made rent on that purchase.  

 

I'm at the point of judging a store more on how they price the "commons" rather than how they price the uncommon bottles.  If they charge $62 for Noah's Mill and $160 for Weller 12, I'm never ever ever EVER shopping there, and it's not because of the Weller 12.  If that Weller 12 is $200, and their Noah's is $42, I'm a customer.  The "unicorns" and the pricing on them, is no longer a deciding factor for me.  If it's one I've never had and want to try, that's on me.  I understand the conundrum, but the shop owners can't have both.  They can't aftermarket the uncommon, and be on the high side of MSRP for the commons.  

 

 

 

There is another scenario where you price them at MSRP or even just slightly above and limit purchase to 1 per.  I know you run the risk of that 1 person returning and buying them 1 at a time but it might be an alternative.  That is essentially what one of the TW does here.  When they get it in they put it out at retail and limit it to 1 per.  This is the "lower tier unicorns"..not BTAC and Pappy.  Think ETL, OWA, Blanton's, CEHT, W12, etc.  If you pay attention, those aren't too hard to come by.