Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[HoustonNit]

This is nuts:

http://mobile.beveragedaily.com/Manufacturers/Diageo-s-Crown-Royal-Apple-hits-sweet-spot-in-whiskey-category

Also on yelp there's 5 reviews for a Liquor store with one of the better bourbon selections in town, one of the reviews involves CR Apple. It's the infamous Regal Apple, impossible to find. The owner called a distributor and was able to get some in within a few hours.

[BigRich]

And that was about the time Vodka peaked. 

I was thinking the same thing. Oh please, please, please...


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[lcpfratn]

I really do think the boom is getting close to its peak. While the bust may still be a few years off because of the length of time for the barrel maturation process, the investment in production expansion and growth of new distilleries is unprecedented. Combine that with the ever increasing prices of the product, and you have a sure fire recipe for an eventual glut and price decline. All you have to do is extrapolate all of the comments in the "what did you pass on buying today?" threads to start to get a feel that the pricing greed of some of the distilleries may finally start hurting sales of some products. Time will tell, but I know my bunker will grow more slowly this year than it did last year for two reasons; 1) I won't buy more of items that were good values in the past, but are no longer due to price increases and 2) I won't be beating the bushes for the harder to find stuff that I already have some of or don't want to pay exorbitant prices for. I read similar comments from so many others on this board, and that, along with the recent articles of a slow down have me thinking I may be better off waiting and enjoying my bunker for a while to see what happens with prices and availability over the next few years.


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[EarthQuake]

I made an order online for a couple bottles and added a 50ml Crown Harvest Rye on because I wanted to try it. They sent me Crown Apple instead, which I tried. This is the absolute worst whiskey I have ever consumed. Not just for snobby "this doesn't taste like proper whiskey" reasons either, it simply tastes awful. It's like a crappy blended Canadian whiskey mixed with an apple scented air freshener.

 

I'm saving half of the tiny bottle for either when someone very brave comes over or I perhaps if I want to play a prank on someone.

Edited April 16, 2017 by EarthQuake

[TexanBrad]

I made an order online for a couple bottles and added a 50ml Crown Harvest Rye on because I wanted to try it. They sent me Crown Apple instead, which I tried. This is the absolute worst whiskey I have ever consumed. Not just for snobby "this doesn't taste like proper whiskey" reasons either, it simply tastes awful. It's like a crappy blended Canadian whiskey mixed with an apple scented air freshener.
 
I'm saving half of the tiny bottle for either when someone very brave comes over or I perhaps if I want to play a prank on someone.

It truly is awful stuff. At least the vanilla just tastes like vanilla flavoring, so it's not a matter of it tasting like a bad blend.


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[kaiserhog]

13 minutes ago, TexanBrad said:

 

It truly is awful stuff. At least the vanilla just tastes like vanilla flavoring, so it's not a matter of it tasting like a bad blend.


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21 minutes ago, EarthQuake said:

I made an order online for a couple bottles and added a 50ml Crown Harvest Rye on because I wanted to try it. They sent me Crown Apple instead, which I tried. This is the absolute worst whiskey I have ever consumed. Not just for snobby "this doesn't taste like proper whiskey" reasons either, it simply tastes awful. It's like a crappy blended Canadian whiskey mixed with an apple scented air freshener.

 

I'm saving half of the tiny bottle for either when someone very brave comes over or I perhaps if I want to play a prank on someone.

Canadian whisky is behind, I only drink 40 Creek at this time.  Perhaps, that is because there are fewer distilleries and they are owned by fewer companies.  Plus it doesn't seem like Canadian whisky is regulated like our straight and bonded whiskey are.  Just my impressions, if someone know better please tell.

[jvd99]

Let's nominate Crown Apple as the BOTM (even though it's not a bourbon) and more people can pile on this insult to whiskydom 

[BottledInBond]

7 hours ago, lcpfratn said:

I really do think the boom is getting close to its peak. While the bust may still be a few years off because of the length of time for the barrel maturation process, the investment in production expansion and growth of new distilleries is unprecedented. Combine that with the ever increasing prices of the product, and you have a sure fire recipe for an eventual glut and price decline. All you have to do is extrapolate all of the comments in the "what did you pass on buying today?" threads to start to get a feel that the pricing greed of some of the distilleries may finally start hurting sales of some products. Time will tell, but I know my bunker will grow more slowly this year than it did last year for two reasons; 1) I won't buy more of items that were good values in the past, but are no longer due to price increases and 2) I won't be beating the bushes for the harder to find stuff that I already have some of or don't want to pay exorbitant prices for. I read similar comments from so many others on this board, and that, along with the recent articles of a slow down have me thinking I may be better off waiting and enjoying my bunker for a while to see what happens with prices and availability over the next few years.


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While I think there is a more discriminating trend within the purchasing trends of the members here, the members here are barely a drop in the bucket of the overall purchasing trends in the US. While I think many of us are well educated and know what pricing and quality used to be, the vast majority of consumers are clueless and the pricing still isn't that bad on a relative basis to Scotch. As an example when Total Wine has Eagle Rare in stock it is $26.99 and I buy it. Another store in my area charges $46.99 for Eagle Rare and they generally sell out just as fast as Total Wine does. Now I would never buy it at the $46.99 place but that doesn't matter because plenty of people don't know that it is a bad price, and it is still way cheaper than lots of mid level Scotch.

 

I also go back to a comment about the Asian markets for bourbon. Not sure who originally made the comment (Cowdery?) but essentially it said that if the Chinese finally really embrace bourbon there will be an ongoing shortage, but if they don't there will be a glut. 

 

By by the way, when I consider these situations I basically ignore the craft startups. 98% of their current product is crap, and also overpriced. The big boys (I'll loosely define as Heaven Hill, Sazerac, Beam Suntory, Brown Forman, Wild Turkey, Diageo, Michter's, MGP) have expanded enough to potentially create a glut on their own if consumption pivots. The crafts are also just a drop in the bucket. But their drop tends to taste like crap.....

[lcpfratn]

While I think there is a more discriminating trend within the purchasing trends of the members here, the members here are barely a drop in the bucket of the overall purchasing trends in the US. While I think many of us are well educated and know what pricing and quality used to be, the vast majority of consumers are clueless and the pricing still isn't that bad on a relative basis to Scotch. As an example when Total Wine has Eagle Rare in stock it is $26.99 and I buy it. Another store in my area charges $46.99 for Eagle Rare and they generally sell out just as fast as Total Wine does. Now I would never buy it at the $46.99 place but that doesn't matter because plenty of people don't know that it is a bad price, and it is still way cheaper than lots of mid level Scotch.
 
I also go back to a comment about the Asian markets for bourbon. Not sure who originally made the comment (Cowdery?) but essentially it said that if the Chinese finally really embrace bourbon there will be an ongoing shortage, but if they don't there will be a glut. 
 
By by the way, when I consider these situations I basically ignore the craft startups. 98% of their current product is crap, and also overpriced. The big boys (I'll loosely define as Heaven Hill, Sazerac, Beam Suntory, Brown Forman, Wild Turkey, Diageo, Michter's, MGP) have expanded enough to potentially create a glut on their own if consumption pivots. The crafts are also just a drop in the bucket. But their drop tends to taste like crap.....

I haven't really seen a bump in Sazerac/Buffalo Trace pricing, so it seems like they are being fairly disciplined in their pricing strategies. However, we have all seen some significant price increases with some of the other big boys lately. In regards to price comparisons with Scotch, you have to start bringing in variables such as more age in most cases with single malts and shipping costs. If you start comparing blended Scotch, which makes up over 80% of the Scotch market and compare many of the decent ones with mid shelf and even some lower mid shelf bourbons, there isn't much price difference. I can also still buy a lot of good (to me) 10 to 12 year single malts for less than $60; some that are still less than $50 and several for even less than $40 (Laphroaig 10 for example). So the price argument between Scotch and Bourbon is becoming less compelling to me all the time.

As far as China goes, yes I guess they COULD really embrace bourbon and help extend the shortage, but I don't think that is likely to happen. I really don't think the wealth demographics in China extend beyond a very small portion of the population. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe they have a very small wealthy class and then everyone else is at the low end of the economic spectrum. I don't believe they really have a vibrant middle class like Japan, Europe or the USA. So, I really don't think there will be any delay in the forthcoming glut because of a Chinese infatuation with bourbon.

Finally, all those craft distilleries will start to add up to more than just a drop in the bucket at some point, and as you pointed out, the big boys production expansion could eventually create the glut without taking into account any of the impact from the start ups. And the big boys are taking the crafts serious or we wouldn't see the acquisitions of some of the most successful ones that have already occurred recently. I'll agree that most of the craft stuff is overpriced and crap for now, but that will evolve over time too.

Who knows when things will actually change. I certainly don't know, but I think the signs of change are starting to appear on the horizon.


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[Charlutz]

I see members here acting with discipline but as others said, we are a minority of the bourbon market and a fairly skewed representation. I lurk on the secondary market and I'm seeing prices continue to increase. This is my first few months lurking there so what I'm seeing may just be the seasonality of the fall releases getting further in the rear view, thus rarer and more expensive. I can tell you that I've see W12 go from $90 shipped to $130 shipped in a couple months. OFBB16 from $160 shipped to $220 shipped. I've also seen a number of comments indicating that buyers are assembling collections and sets, like the 2013 BTAC or a 'vertical' set of all years of WLW or some such thing. When someone is collecting and not drinking, the prices don't align with those of us who consume. Now, if the allure of collecting dissipates we may see a retraction in prices but I've stopped trying to predict values. I'm buying what I like. Sometimes I overpay to retail but I don't regret my $300 THH and $300 WLW I bought this fall. I love those whiskeys. 

[ModestGlutton]

If trends in other markets (ie whine, tea, cigars, etc), globalization undoubtedly will create a nice crib in which the expansion of lesser quality products will be sold. Resting comfortably on their previous laurels, the modest amount of actual product that would be worthy of their evolving name, would keep them afloat and word of mouth will get more then a few uninformed palates to buy and become accustomed to a taste they will associate with that brand. Nobody can tell me a Nicaraguan cigar, albiet very good in some of the cases, can compare to that of a Cuban from a previous era. Not only is the product inferior but the market and the age of the time gave rise to great things that can't be reproduced today. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss budding distillers or people willing to start a new front, as were most of the gems will be found. But this "bubble" isn't going to burst whether or not the Chinese are involved, I doubt it, considering the lack of texture and taste complexity bourbon has to offer that can be found in other things like wine or tea. Though no doubt there will be a few buyers but it doesn't have the giddy hand-clapping-giggle that comes with a flavor change mid swig or a return of a new flavor minutes later after swallowing. If anything, it is sites like these that "remember the days of old" and "oh how I miss..." so on and so forth that are driving the very thing we love further out of our grasp. Not to say that sharing of information is bad but everything has a cost. I think we all know this but, hey, my friends don't really care about nuances of taste in bourbon so a nice place to come and hear others is very nice. On the other side of the coin we are the people that call out overpriced apple flavored monstrosities that should keep the market sane. And even though I won't pay 300 for an old school Romeo y Julieta, I may once in a while and Im still on my hunt for Davidoff's 100th anniversary no. 15 robusto, so if you find it, buy a box and save me one. So at the end of the day I say stop chasing ghosts and if you taste a good special edition don't buy a case, buy 3. Because it's not going to be cheaper then it is today. There's me pouring my thoughts in your glass, now time to fill my glass with..hmm....I went with a Bourye from 2015...something about it is simple but nice like a ditzy babe. Cheers!

[smokinjoe]

9 minutes ago, ModestGlutton said:

If trends in other markets (ie whine, tea, cigars, etc), globalization undoubtedly will create a nice crib in which the expansion of lesser quality products will be sold. Resting comfortably on their previous laurels, the modest amount of actual product that would be worthy of their evolving name, would keep them afloat and word of mouth will get more then a few uninformed palates to buy and become accustomed to a taste they will associate with that brand. Nobody can tell me a Nicaraguan cigar, albiet very good in some of the cases, can compare to that of a Cuban from a previous era. Not only is the product inferior but the market and the age of the time gave rise to great things that can't be reproduced today. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss budding distillers or people willing to start a new front, as were most of the gems will be found. But this "bubble" isn't going to burst whether or not the Chinese are involved, I doubt it, considering the lack of texture and taste complexity bourbon has to offer that can be found in other things like wine or tea. Though no doubt there will be a few buyers but it doesn't have the giddy hand-clapping-giggle that comes with a flavor change mid swig or a return of a new flavor minutes later after swallowing. If anything, it is sites like these that "remember the days of old" and "oh how I miss..." so on and so forth that are driving the very thing we love further out of our grasp. Not to say that sharing of information is bad but everything has a cost. I think we all know this but, hey, my friends don't really care about nuances of taste in bourbon so a nice place to come and hear others is very nice. On the other side of the coin we are the people that call out overpriced apple flavored monstrosities that should keep the market sane. And even though I won't pay 300 for an old school Romeo y Julieta, I may once in a while and Im still on my hunt for Davidoff's 100th anniversary no. 15 robusto, so if you find it, buy a box and save me one. So at the end of the day I say stop chasing ghosts and if you taste a good special edition don't buy a case, buy 3. Because it's not going to be cheaper then it is today. There's me pouring my thoughts in your glass, now time to fill my glass with..hmm....I went with a Bourye from 2015...something about it is simple but nice like a ditzy babe. Cheers!

I have read this now 4 times, including once out loud, and I still have no idea what point you are trying to make...

[mbroo5880i]

1 minute ago, smokinjoe said:

I have read this now 4 times, including once out loud, and I still have no idea what point you are trying to make...

 

 I couldn't quite make it all the way through once.  

 

[mbroo5880i]

I don't know much about predicting whether the boom has peaked.  I know, in most instances, that the signs of a boom, regardless of the industry, are often apparent but not recognized until after the fact.

 

I do know this.  While prices, as a rule, continue to increase along with demand, there are still several very affordable and readily available options available at reasonable prices.  I would hold up EC, KC, Pikesville 110, Larceny as good examples.  Pikesville 110 and Larceny are products that came out during the boom.

[b1gcountry]

Let's nominate Crown Apple as the BOTM (even though it's not a bourbon) and more people can pile on this insult to whiskydom 

I quit the forums...

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[dcbt]

37 minutes ago, ModestGlutton said:

If trends in other markets (ie whine, tea, cigars, etc), globalization undoubtedly will create a nice crib in which the expansion of lesser quality products will be sold. Resting comfortably on their previous laurels, the modest amount of actual product that would be worthy of their evolving name, would keep them afloat and word of mouth will get more then a few uninformed palates to buy and become accustomed to a taste they will associate with that brand. Nobody can tell me a Nicaraguan cigar, albiet very good in some of the cases, can compare to that of a Cuban from a previous era. Not only is the product inferior but the market and the age of the time gave rise to great things that can't be reproduced today. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss budding distillers or people willing to start a new front, as were most of the gems will be found. But this "bubble" isn't going to burst whether or not the Chinese are involved, I doubt it, considering the lack of texture and taste complexity bourbon has to offer that can be found in other things like wine or tea. Though no doubt there will be a few buyers but it doesn't have the giddy hand-clapping-giggle that comes with a flavor change mid swig or a return of a new flavor minutes later after swallowing. If anything, it is sites like these that "remember the days of old" and "oh how I miss..." so on and so forth that are driving the very thing we love further out of our grasp. Not to say that sharing of information is bad but everything has a cost. I think we all know this but, hey, my friends don't really care about nuances of taste in bourbon so a nice place to come and hear others is very nice. On the other side of the coin we are the people that call out overpriced apple flavored monstrosities that should keep the market sane. And even though I won't pay 300 for an old school Romeo y Julieta, I may once in a while and Im still on my hunt for Davidoff's 100th anniversary no. 15 robusto, so if you find it, buy a box and save me one. So at the end of the day I say stop chasing ghosts and if you taste a good special edition don't buy a case, buy 3. Because it's not going to be cheaper then it is today. There's me pouring my thoughts in your glass, now time to fill my glass with..hmm....I went with a Bourye from 2015...something about it is simple but nice like a ditzy babe. Cheers!

This begs for a quote from Billy Madison:

 

"At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

[ModestGlutton]

48 minutes ago, dcbt said:

This begs for a quote from Billy Madison:

 

"At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

Although, hurtful. I will simplify my thought for you.

 

1. As the market expands, lower quality product will be pushed off to people who don't know what the "good stuff" tastes like.

 

Similar to people pushing the shit off to college students thinking that having an increase in popularity for the like of Clyde Mayes or CR apple is a good thing. Rather then an increase for demand like 4R, because the smart and intelligent people working at Total Wines and others would recommend something like 4R and get them hooked on the good stuff so people at the breweries can't push out crap they know people will buy it. Power through knowledge.

 

2. There is no bubble, there is just a normal increase of demand because there are more people in the world.

 

3. If there is a bubble it is because of sites like this and others discussing what is good and bad. Hence the first two rules of fight club. The more people that know the easier something nice gets ruined. But its also nice to have an outlet to share and talk about something like bourbon with people who also like bourbon, unlike my friends in my physical world.

 

4. "Has the boom peaked", there is no boom more like a loud pop. and the horses are off. People are starting to like bourbon and I doubt it will reach the acclaim of wine, cigars, tea, furniture, rugs, art, etc etc etc.

On a side note, looking at bourbon's closest relative Scotch, can't even hold a small candle that is the giant of wine. I mean, a glass...in a restaurant of a wine could go for $$$$. Bottles easily can go for 5 figures. In tea, 1 cake (357 grams) of tea has reached over a million dollars at the highest side of the spectrum.

 

5. The cheapest price you are going to find it on the shelves is now.

 

[garbanzobean]

I had not been booze shopping in a good while due to some TOTALLY NECESSARY STOP LOOKING AT ME LIKE THAT firearms-related purchases, but I have sauntered by a few liquor stores in the past couple weeks.  What I saw reminded me of a couple of blog posts by everyone's favorite liquor Hype Man, Dave Driscoll.  

 

There is a ton of bourbon on the shelves at all of these stores.  And holy crap I don't recognize very much of it.  A whole lot of it is probably immature, and is unidentifiable cats and dogs bourbon.  This is somewhat concerning.  That said, short of most LEs, Rock Hill Farms, OWA107, and to a lesser degree Pikesville Rye, it appears that I can find everything I like to drink at one or more stores at all times now.  I'd say it's an issue of expectation management on my part, but I find myself genuinely excited to drink most of this stuff, so who knows.  Maybe supply is actually up.

 

Outside of Elijah Craig, Maker's, Knob Creek, and a bunch of random IBs, it is a private barrel desert out there.  I have seen one Four Roses PS in the past year within 50 miles of my house, and it's OESF, which I don't historically care for.  Not seeing Henry McKenna, anything BT that I would want, etc.  Wild Turkey is turning into a bright spot for Private Barrels.  Maybe I need to start bugging a couple store owners about doing more WT picks.  I think they might actually have the reserves to be my next FR.

 

This market is starting to remind me of the Scotch market.  Lots of options, many of them not of interest to me.  Random repackaging of the same young booze with various finishes and other gimmicks, as if none of the big distilleries want to be left holding a bunch of young spirit when the timer dings.  IBs are overpriced and losing QPR like a balloon full of holes.  The truly rare stuff is still impossible to find or is cost prohibitive.

[jvd99]

2 hours ago, garbanzobean said:

I had not been booze shopping in a good while due to some TOTALLY NECESSARY STOP LOOKING AT ME LIKE THAT firearms-related purchases ...

All fireArm purchases are necessary  No need to explain

[emr454]

2 hours ago, garbanzobean said:

I had not been booze shopping in a good while due to some TOTALLY NECESSARY STOP LOOKING AT ME LIKE THAT firearms-related purchases...

On the other side of that coin, I have not made any firearms-related purchases recently due to my booze shopping. Must correct that!

[b1gcountry]

On the other side of that coin, I have not made any firearms-related purchases recently due to my booze shopping. Must correct that!

We need a new 'bunker' thread!

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[smokinjoe]

13 hours ago, ModestGlutton said:

Although, hurtful. I will simplify my thought for you.

 

1. As the market expands, lower quality product will be pushed off to people who don't know what the "good stuff" tastes like.

 

Similar to people pushing the shit off to college students thinking that having an increase in popularity for the like of Clyde Mayes or CR apple is a good thing. Rather then an increase for demand like 4R, because the smart and intelligent people working at Total Wines and others would recommend something like 4R and get them hooked on the good stuff so people at the breweries can't push out crap they know people will buy it. Power through knowledge.

 

2. There is no bubble, there is just a normal increase of demand because there are more people in the world.

 

3. If there is a bubble it is because of sites like this and others discussing what is good and bad. Hence the first two rules of fight club. The more people that know the easier something nice gets ruined. But its also nice to have an outlet to share and talk about something like bourbon with people who also like bourbon, unlike my friends in my physical world.

 

4. "Has the boom peaked", there is no boom more like a loud pop. and the horses are off. People are starting to like bourbon and I doubt it will reach the acclaim of wine, cigars, tea, furniture, rugs, art, etc etc etc.

On a side note, looking at bourbon's closest relative Scotch, can't even hold a small candle that is the giant of wine. I mean, a glass...in a restaurant of a wine could go for $$$$. Bottles easily can go for 5 figures. In tea, 1 cake (357 grams) of tea has reached over a million dollars at the highest side of the spectrum.

 

5. The cheapest price you are going to find it on the shelves is now.

 

 

Im still till going to need an outline...

 

 

 

[Vosgar]

15 hours ago, ModestGlutton said:

considering the lack of texture and taste complexity bourbon has to offer that can be found in other things like wine or tea. 

While I understand there's no right or wrong when it comes to what a person likes, doesn't like and what their perceptions are, would I be correct in my thought that you're relatively new to bourbon? I ask only because I'm able to pick out more nuances in a whiskey now than I could in my first few years of drinking them. While some bourbon's may fit your description, there's plenty of others that IMHO offer plenty of complexity. 

 

[ModestGlutton]

1 hour ago, smokinjoe said:

 

Im still till going to need an outline...

 

 

 

 

excellent reference.  short of the short: bourbon good, drink more bourbon, buy more bourbon, save bourbon for later.

 

14 minutes ago, Vosgar said:

While I understand there's no right or wrong when it comes to what a person likes, doesn't like and what their perceptions are, would I be correct in my thought that you're relatively new to bourbon? I ask only because I'm able to pick out more nuances in a whiskey now than I could in my first few years of drinking them. While some bourbon's may fit your description, there's plenty of others that IMHO offer plenty of complexity. 

 

 

Yes I agree preference isn't the issue either, it is just what the scope of what the product has to offer. Alcohol is in general very straight forward, you drink it, the flavor can vary, some can be rough or smooth, but the feeling it gives you doesn't. Look into pu-erh tea.

 

 

[b1gcountry]

For Better or worse, I don't think you're going to win many bourbon drinkers on this site over to tea...

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