Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[HoustonNit]

All this KC discussion just reminds I need to pick these bad boys up!

From a locals twitter page:

"We have 2 brand new Knob Creek private barrels just in time for Derby weekend. "Rapture," aged 10 years, and "Four Horsemen," aged 12 years. "

[HoustonNit]

The question is, why did they not just wait until there was more 9YO available.

 

I don't think any company wants to stop there cash flow. This might be blasphemy around here but if they can keep the same flavor profile by selecting certain barrels that might not meet there age requirement I'd rather have slightly younger whiskey that tastes better than whiskey that meets some age requirement but isn't as good.

 

I just posted a pick above of a 10yr and 12yr store pick of KCSB. There's a good chance the 10yr might be better than the 12yr.

[Nm0369]

I'll go out on a limb and say that the age statement was dropped from both KC and EC for the same reason.  Their sales spiked to a point where they couldn't maintain an age stated small batch & premium offering.  Going all NAS would be drastic and turn some people away from the brand completely.  They've kept the age statement on ECBP and KCSB for now....if they go NAS the small batches will never be AS again unless there is a glut.

[HoustonNit]

I'll go out on a limb and say that the age statement was dropped from both KC and EC for the same reason.  Their sales spiked to a point where they couldn't maintain an age stated small batch & premium offering.  Going all NAS would be drastic and turn some people away from the brand completely.  They've kept the age statement on ECBP and KCSB for now....if they go NAS the small batches will never be AS again unless there is a glut.

Hasn't all the distilleries all made big investments to increase production to try to meet current demand. It'll take a while but would think at some point they'll have enough stock that they could put the age statements back on.

[JoeTerp]

25 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Hasn't all the distilleries all made big investments to increase production to try to meet current demand. It'll take a while but would think at some point they'll have enough stock that they could put the age statements back on.

 

I too think the age statements will return, but I think it's more likely that they come back as a premium product at a higher price than on the old product. 

[smokinjoe]

1 hour ago, JoeTerp said:

I too think the age statements will return, but I think it's more likely that they come back as a premium product at a higher price than on the old product. 

I agree 100, Joe.  In reality, they will re-occupy the upper price position that they gave away during the glut.  The Market working like it's supposed to, you could say.  

[GaryT]

On 5/11/2017 at 8:07 PM, smokinjoe said:

I agree 100, Joe.  In reality, they will re-occupy the upper price position that they gave away during the glut.  The Market working like it's supposed to, you could say.  

 

Agree.  I initially thought they wouldn't return without some other change (bottle or label redesign) but look at EC18yr (it isn't that they were running out of 18yr, but they recognized that the price-per-year ratio should be more than $3-$4 - and when it came back the bottle/label were pretty much the same).  And it doesn't sound like it languishes on the shelf at the new price point - so they got it right!  I think in some instances they may have to tweak the labeling (besides the addition of the AS obviously!) just to differentiate.  I mean - if they released a 12 yr, BIB version of EC for $60 . . . I'd be very interested despite only a couple proof points up from what was EC12.  Well - provided they have a new bottle  

[BottledInBond]

This morning there was a very large lottery event. 2 locations of a chain, the first 250 there each got a number and there were about 70 bottles of Van Winkle line and BTAC per store. So 140 bottles for 500 people. 28% get a nice bottle, and as far as I can tell none of the enthusiasts I know around here even went. It was a 20 minute drive and they handed out numbers starting at 6 AM and to me it just wasn't worth it but I was surprised that nobody else I know went either. Is it a possible sign of some mania reduction slightly? Possibly

[Clueby]

24 minutes ago, BottledInBond said:

This morning there was a very large lottery event. 2 locations of a chain, the first 250 there each got a number and there were about 70 bottles of Van Winkle line and BTAC per store. So 140 bottles for 500 people. 28% get a nice bottle, and as far as I can tell none of the enthusiasts I know around here even went. It was a 20 minute drive and they handed out numbers starting at 6 AM and to me it just wasn't worth it but I was surprised that nobody else I know went either. Is it a possible sign of some mania reduction slightly? Possibly

All three local stores here had the same lottery. Only one of the three hit their 250. Their were only about 30 VW and BTAC bottles per store with a total of 60 bottles. The rest was stuff like Four Grain, Boss Hogg, Yippee Ki Yay, even Blanton's. The PVW were the first to go of course. It didn't seem too manic and everyone there seemed genuinely interested in getting a bottle to drink and not to flip. Possibly the end is near(er).

Edited June 11, 2017 by Clueby

[smokinjoe]

1 hour ago, Clueby said:

 Possibly the end is near(er).

Not sure of this.  When folks stop showing up at these functions at 6 AM with any family member they can entice to go to increase their odds of getting a bottle of whiskey, we may be near(er).  

[Clueby]

2 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

Not sure of this.  When folks stop showing up at these functions at 6 AM with any family member they can entice to go to increase their odds of getting a bottle of whiskey, we may be near(er).  

Point taken. But a year or two ago they might have hit their 250 limit by 6am. 

[musekatcher]

On 5/11/2017 at 11:57 AM, HoustonNit said:

 

I don't think any company wants to stop there cash flow. This might be blasphemy around here but if they can keep the same flavor profile by selecting certain barrels that might not meet there age requirement I'd rather have slightly younger whiskey that tastes better than whiskey that meets some age requirement but isn't as good.

 

I just posted a pick above of a 10yr and 12yr store pick of KCSB. There's a good chance the 10yr might be better than the 12yr.

 

But,but,but...we all know quality is directly proportional to age, proof, popularity and inversely proportional to availability, production rates, barrel number per batch, and...oh wait, I confused price with quality again...;)

[musekatcher]

On 5/11/2017 at 11:01 AM, Theiano said:

 

 

Option 2. would be to eliminate the age statement and release to the customer demand. This will lose some customers but the hit is probably small, and more than compensated for by the growth in the market.

 

 

Very small.  Most who drink KC, aren't aware it had an age statement.  I looked in my cabinet the other day, and amazingly, the "9 year" age statement disappeared from an unopened bottle!  My 25 year old fessed up that he and some buddies consumed it and replaced it - so he thought!

[Thig]

  I looked in my cabinet the other day, and amazingly, the "9 year" age statement disappeared from an unopened bottle!  My 25 year old fessed up that he and some buddies consumed it and replaced it - so he thought!

Now that's genius, or so he thought.

[BigRich]

 
Very small.  Most who drink KC, aren't aware it had an age statement.  I looked in my cabinet the other day, and amazingly, the "9 year" age statement disappeared from an unopened bottle!  My 25 year old fessed up that he and some buddies consumed it and replaced it - so he thought!

Better than drinking half and refilling it with water/vodka


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BottledInBond]

10 hours ago, Clueby said:

All three local stores here had the same lottery. Only one of the three hit their 250. Their were only about 30 VW and BTAC bottles per store with a total of 60 bottles. The rest was stuff like Four Grain, Boss Hogg, Yippee Ki Yay, even Blanton's. The PVW were the first to go of course. It didn't seem too manic and everyone there seemed genuinely interested in getting a bottle to drink and not to flip. Possibly the end is near(er).

Here were the bottle lists from the stores here

[Clueby]

59 minutes ago, BottledInBond said:

Here were the bottle lists from the stores here.

There are 3 local stores in the St. Louis area. Here is the list for the one I went to. Other stores were similar. You guys had WAY more VW 10 and 12.

[bourbon4all]

19 minutes ago, Clueby said:

There are 3 local stores in the St. Louis area. Here is the list for the one I went to. Other stores were similar. You guys had WAY more VW 10 and 12.

Great prices. I like how the wlw is cheaper than handy and eagle rare. Interesting that there was no sazerac to be found

[BottledInBond]

3 hours ago, Clueby said:

There are 3 local stores in the St. Louis area. Here is the list for the one I went to. Other stores were similar. You guys had WAY more VW 10 and 12.

Was anyone actually happy if they "won" the right to buy some of the junk on the second half of this list after spending a couple hours on the endeavor? I would assume people just left at that point but I might be crazy. If people actually stayed and waited for their chance to buy a bottle of Willett Pot Still Reserve et al then my worst fears have been realized and the boom is still getting worse.....

[PaulO]

The store knows many people don't want to go empty handed after they waited.

[Nm0369]

I went to a lottery yesterday at an independently owned store.  I bet there were 200 people for a much less exciting lineup than posted above.  Tons of wives/girlfriends tagging along to double the odds.  One of the early draws was a girl and her guy walked up there and pointed to the bottle he wanted.  Maybe I'm just jealous my wife has no interest in a bourbon lottery on Saturday morning.   1st bottle chosen was actually EC18....then all the PVW, four Grain etc.  I didn't get anything but the samples were worth the drive.  I tried Decades, WR brandy cask, Blood Oath and some nice scotch.

[Limegoldconvertible68]

Can someone explain the logic of having the lottery in June. Didn't All the Pappy come out last October?  Some of the small stores around me dole out the bottle at that time with the bigger chains doing the special events early in the Christmas buying season. What's the point of waiting 6 additional months?

[mbroo5880i]

I know a few chains hold bottles for special fundraising, either via a lottery or auction.  This is a traditionally slow time of the year for releases so it brings people into the store.  

[flahute]

1 hour ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

Can someone explain the logic of having the lottery in June. Didn't All the Pappy come out last October?  Some of the small stores around me dole out the bottle at that time with the bigger chains doing the special events early in the Christmas buying season. What's the point of waiting 6 additional months?

 

21 minutes ago, mbroo5880i said:

I know a few chains hold bottles for special fundraising, either via a lottery or auction.  This is a traditionally slow time of the year for releases so it brings people into the store.  

What mbroo said is why. 

Whether or not fundraising is involved, some stores like to have a draw during a slow time of the year. 

[musekatcher]

16 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

Was anyone actually happy if they "won" the right to buy some of the junk on the second half of this list after spending a couple hours on the endeavor?

 

I'd have that bottle of EC18.  Its a little steep for my current palette, but the oldest whiskey I have is only 14 yr.  Gotta up my game..