flahute Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, PaulO said: I wonder about the people that buy expensive new sourced bourbon labels, or some of the "craft" products. Are there repeat purchases? It doesn't seem sustainable without some loyal customers. On the other hand, it could be a sucker born every minute, just keep churning out new labels. I'd like to see some of these folks try WT or OGD in a blind tasting with the stuff they buy. That would be funny. Good question! I think some of the craft buyers can't admit they don't like it because they believe everyone else likes it and that it's supposed to be good because "craft" so they talk themselves into liking it because they're afraid of looking dumb. The sourced bourbon is usually good bourbon (just not worth the price) but most of these guys don't know any better so they rave about how good it is. It's so hilarious to see the posts exclaiming "look what I scored!" and "I went hunting today and scored this!" Then they get all the attaboys and "that's good juice!" comments and I just shake my head. You can't educate these guys because they don't want to hear it. On the one had it's fine because it keeps them away from good values like Rare Breed and really KC Single Barrels but on the other hand the distilleries see what people are willing to pay for crap and average bourbon and adjust accordingly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulO Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Steve, That all makes me grateful this site exists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 We're not long away from the BT summer shutdown, when they install their new massive fermentation tanks, and basically make the jump to light speed, since they already have been rocking the rackhouse expansion. I agree, the majors are catching up with demand in the lower ages. It's very exciting. The volume of sales (# of bottles, not dollars) is still rising faster than the rate of consumption of alcohol per capita. That can mean only one thing: inventory is building in houses in the US. It's the rise of the home bar - and in some, ahem, extreme (and far fewer, but significant) cases, the rise of the hobbyist bourbon collection. When regular bourbon buyers say "I've got enough to last me a while" (absolute sickos - I know), and the stills are still running in the red, look out. I don't worry about price creep at all. And I mean AT ALL. Time is on all of our sides on this particular issue, if not others... Once the US takes the first breather from its fever pitch bourbon buying spree (because without increasing their consumption in step with production, they have NO. CHOICE. but to hit a saturation point), the majors are going to be fighting a bare knuckle price war. Anyway, too much young bourbon leads to lots of extra-matured bourbon. The future is SO delicious, I can hardly stand it. Just imagine that first new monster batch of wheated bourbon from BT's new giant fermenters - yaaaaassssss.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mako254 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 3 hours ago, The Black Tot said: We're not long away from the BT summer shutdown, when they install their new massive fermentation tanks, and basically make the jump to light speed, since they already have been rocking the rackhouse expansion. I agree, the majors are catching up with demand in the lower ages. It's very exciting. The volume of sales (# of bottles, not dollars) is still rising faster than the rate of consumption of alcohol per capita. That can mean only one thing: inventory is building in houses in the US. It's the rise of the home bar - and in some, ahem, extreme (and far fewer, but significant) cases, the rise of the hobbyist bourbon collection. When regular bourbon buyers say "I've got enough to last me a while" (absolute sickos - I know), and the stills are still running in the red, look out. I don't worry about price creep at all. And I mean AT ALL. Time is on all of our sides on this particular issue, if not others... Once the US takes the first breather from its fever pitch bourbon buying spree (because without increasing their consumption in step with production, they have NO. CHOICE. but to hit a saturation point), the majors are going to be fighting a bare knuckle price war. Anyway, too much young bourbon leads to lots of extra-matured bourbon. The future is SO delicious, I can hardly stand it. Just imagine that first new monster batch of wheated bourbon from BT's new giant fermenters - yaaaaassssss.... Yep. This is a time to be patient for us die hards. Market slows down a little, some the trendy types move on the the next thing AND there will still be full rickhouses slap damn full of mature bourbon. It will be a different scene in 5 years. Not saying we will see ec12 stacked deep for $19 or OWA end capa but there will be plenty to choose from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Loblaw Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 3 hours ago, Mako254 said: Yep. This is a time to be patient for us die hards. Market slows down a little, some the trendy types move on the the next thing AND there will still be full rickhouses slap damn full of mature bourbon. It will be a different scene in 5 years. Not saying we will see ec12 stacked deep for $19 or OWA end capa but there will be plenty to choose from. It will certainly be nice when stocks are up, but I have a feeling that things still won't ever get close to returning to the good ol days. I think we will start to see a lot of age stated limited edition type releases with prices north of $100. (Bakers 13, This new 14 year MGP, and Mister Sam all spring to mind) . I'd also imagine that most of the big boys are going to try to increase their overseas market which if that is the case, may significantly affect the potential for another glut. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Well - there are feelings, and there are numbers... If you make more than a whiskey geek can drink, he'll store it. But when you make more than a whiskey geek can STORE... you're going to snuff out demand. Then your whiskey will get older and you'll start pumping big volume to the specialist crowd, and your $100 "limited edition" product sits 6 deep in every store, which leads to the end of FOMO pressure, since it's always (or at least regularly) available. You're right, once the stocks start aging significantly, we'll see the great cash grab for 12yr plus whiskey limiteds at $100 (we're already seeing the start of the wave). But when the volume of those increase, a lot of US whiskey buyers don't want to buy 3 $100 bottles a week, much less their wives. They'll get tired of that quickly, and then you've got shelf turds, and an eventual price adjustment. This isn't happening in a vacuum. Rum production is up, Tequila production is up. Ah, the magic of overseas... It's a nice dream, but it ain't gonna happen. Most of the countries that have the volumes of people with disposable income for a whiskey hobby are already customers, and already priced in. As for the others, most of the big population countries either have SIGNIFICANTLY different palates from ours, or don't have the kind of wealth in the general population to entertain spending $50+ for a bottle. Japan bought a lot in the last glut, but Japan has always had a thing for US cultural iconography. Overseas magic is also the plan of Scotch, Rum, and Tequila distilleries. And high end wine producers. Etc, etc. Everyone thinks their horse is going to win, but there ain't as much track width as everyone wishes there was. This industry is wildly cyclical. Usually we agree on that. To say that the bottom half of the cycle won't come again just because we're in the top half....well, they probably said the top half of the cycle would never happen again when they were in the bottom half... and here we are. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Well - there are feelings, and there are numbers... [emoji4] If you make more than a whiskey geek can drink, he'll store it. But when you make more than a whiskey geek can STORE... you're going to snuff out demand. Then your whiskey will get older and you'll start pumping big volume to the specialist crowd, and your $100 "limited edition" product sits 6 deep in every store, which leads to the end of FOMO pressure, since it's always (or at least regularly) available. You're right, once the stocks start aging significantly, we'll see the great cash grab for 12yr plus whiskey limiteds at $100 (we're already seeing the start of the wave). But when the volume of those increase, a lot of US whiskey buyers don't want to buy 3 $100 bottles a week, much less their wives. They'll get tired of that quickly, and then you've got shelf turds, and an eventual price adjustment. This isn't happening in a vacuum. Rum production is up, Tequila production is up. Ah, the magic of overseas... It's a nice dream, but it ain't gonna happen. Most of the countries that have the volumes of people with disposable income for a whiskey hobby are already customers, and already priced in. As for the others, most of the big population countries either have SIGNIFICANTLY different palates from ours, or don't have the kind of wealth in the general population to entertain spending $50+ for a bottle. Japan bought a lot in the last glut, but Japan has always had a thing for US cultural iconography. Overseas magic is also the plan of Scotch, Rum, and Tequila distilleries. And high end wine producers. Etc, etc. Everyone thinks their horse is going to win, but there ain't as much track width as everyone wishes there was. This industry is wildly cyclical. Usually we agree on that. To say that the bottom half of the cycle won't come again just because we're in the top half....well, they probably said the top half of the cycle would never happen again when they were in the bottom half... and here we are. Paul, I always enjoy your little essays on this topic, and usually agree wholeheartedly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jazz June Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 The return of the age statement to Knob Creek SmB got me thinking - what things that are blamed on the boom might be reversed by future inventory increases? Currently allocated products no longer allocated? Decreases in prices? Return of previously dropped age statements? I think things would have to be pretty bad for prices to actually go down, but a prolonged freeze may happen. The end of allocations seems to be the goal of building and filling new warehouses, so that will probably happen for the "regular" products. I hope other age statements come back, but not sure how likely that is. As others have said, the days of finding Van Winkle, BTAC, etc. on the shelves for reasonable prices are probably gone for good. But if you could routinely walk into a store and find your favorite "normal" releases (maybe with their age statements returned), would that even matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhantomLamb Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, Jazz June said: The return of the age statement to Knob Creek SmB got me thinking - what things that are blamed on the boom might be reversed by future inventory increases? Currently allocated products no longer allocated? Decreases in prices? Return of previously dropped age statements? I think things would have to be pretty bad for prices to actually go down, but a prolonged freeze may happen. The end of allocations seems to be the goal of building and filling new warehouses, so that will probably happen for the "regular" products. I hope other age statements come back, but not sure how likely that is. As others have said, the days of finding Van Winkle, BTAC, etc. on the shelves for reasonable prices are probably gone for good. But if you could routinely walk into a store and find your favorite "normal" releases (maybe with their age statements returned), would that even matter? I would have to agree here. Maybe I'm sick in the head, but at times I like the chase for PVW or BTAC, it makes it more special to me when I can find them. Personally, being able to find good "normal" picks with age statements back would be enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 I like my BTAC as much as the next guy, but I'd fancy my chances better if every year they put out 80K bottles of GTS and WLW instead of 20-40K. Obviously, that's a way off, but more rackhouses and production capacity means more honey barrels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarthQuake Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 23 hours ago, flahute said: Good question! I think some of the craft buyers can't admit they don't like it because they believe everyone else likes it and that it's supposed to be good because "craft" so they talk themselves into liking it because they're afraid of looking dumb. This is perhaps the most succinct description of the forces that drive the craft market that I've ever read. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulO Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 I could see prices stay at or close to MSRP for most things. I guess that could count as a price decrease. As fishnbowljoe has talked to people that know, only a small portion of BT production is Weller recipe. In the future there may be a tsunami of mash bill #1, but not much Weller. BTAC and VW releases will probably stay rather limited, as that's the business model. Tot's point about potential honey barrels sounds logical. Maybe some great single barrel selections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, PaulO said: As fishnbowljoe has talked to people that know, only a small portion of BT production is Weller recipe. In the future there may be a tsunami of mash bill #1, but not much Weller. As I understand it, they make the wheated recipe for one month per year... ...now they'll still be making it one month per year, but with double the capacity thanks to the new fermenters, which were their prior production bottleneck. I'm pretty sure it's at least double the size they're installing this summer. Edited July 3, 2019 by The Black Tot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbstout Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 On July 1, 2019 at 8:51 PM, smokinjoe said: Yeah, I get the irrational exuberance of the secondary and new to the game folks and where they may impact pricing at the local store, but they really don’t effect the general macro dynamics of the supply/demand market. The boom is entirely macro, the other shenanigans (bubble) are the micro. I work very hard to keep them separated in my mind in these discussions. I laugh when I see posts of people on Facebook stating they are "new to the game". Is Bourbon a game? I started drinking Bourbon because I loved the taste & the experience. Sad to see it become a status drink. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUfan99 Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 @The Black Tot speaking hope with logical reasoning to boot! Kentucky Owl and the like can die tomorrow for all I care, but will I be able to get Rare Breed for less than $40 like the bottle I just finished last night ever again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fosmith Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 2 hours ago, CUfan99 said: @The Black Tot speaking hope with logical reasoning to boot! Kentucky Owl and the like can die tomorrow for all I care, but will I be able to get Rare Breed for less than $40 like the bottle I just finished last night ever again? I recently got a back up Rare Breed at Total Wine for $39 so, it's possible. Even at the more common $50 price point, it's a great value. And, totally agree on KO. I did get drawn in on the batch 1 rye and it's good but not something I would buy again at the price. As for the Confiscated, not even slightly tempted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 2 hours ago, CUfan99 said: will I be able to get Rare Breed for less than $40 like the bottle I just finished last night ever again? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FasterHorses Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 The boom has peaked. It will not relinquish its death grip for a couple more years but it has peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 DISCUS numbers for 2018 show continued growth in American Whiskey: https://www.distilledspirits.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/American-Whiskey-2018.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 It's that time of year, Joe. Shall we do this again? A few weeks ago I already made the jpegs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Points of interest: -US whiskey's hermano, Tequila, is rising at a similar rate of more than 1.5 million new cases this year, and is closing the gap on total volumes. -Bourbon added just under 1.4M new cases from 2017-2018. But even vodka added 1.1M. -Similar trajectories in rye and Irish Whisky, but comparatively insignificant volumes. -Twice as much Irish as Scotch. Never thought of it like that. -Canadian has leveled off Agh, I knew I forgot one. Check out Rum, losing the battle: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 I see good times ahead for those of us who are genuine Bourbon fans, different certainly but still good. As for the newest and bestest limited production of the week from NDPs who we all know are bottling essentially the same stuff under different labels I don't care where that train is headed because I'm not buying a ticket. Yes, I'm aware of social media chatter about a new score and bragging about how much was paid but I do not take seriously the opinions of folks who are younger than my shoes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 (edited) Man, everything but rum is UP, UP, UP. Is the whole nation in a drunken stupor? Nope. Note the following chart. This is one of the things Joe helped clarify for me last year. Alcohol consumption does vary, but not by a crazy amount over the years. The below graphic can be a little hard to read, but spirits consumption is in medium grey and uses the legend on the left. All three categories sum to the line, which uses the scale at the right. What we can see is that spirits consumption appears to be moderately increasing (so is wine), and beer is on the decline. However, where is this drinking data gathered from? Ah, the same sales charts as above... That's actually good news for America's health, because it is unlikely that all whiskey being sold is being consumed. The data from the late 70s shows a peak spirits consumption rate of about 2L per person per year of 40% spirits MORE than we have in 2018. Back then, bourbon wasn't a collectible, and that was probably being consumed. Based on current trend lines, we're already a year or two away from SELLING the USAs peak historical capacity per capita to drink the stuff. And we know that the rate of PRODUCTION is now much higher than sales, in order to fill monstrous amounts of new rackhouses, as well as refill old ones. So in 3-4years when today's blitzkrieg of distillation hits it's early forms of maturity, we're clearly going to soar past what Americans can (or will) drink. Alcoholism is being treated more directly in 2019 than it was in 1977 and people are generally more aware of the health consequences, and the general trend of the last 40 years has been a gradual decrease in alcohol consumption. I believe the small uptick in consumption since 99 includes a lot of inventory building. Beer consumption is down, but wine is often stored as well, although probably less than bourbon these recent years. Edited July 5, 2019 by The Black Tot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 I would also add the thought that rum and Scotch sales declines or flattening is very probably more a production problem than a demand one, since Scotch takes so much longer to mature and the stocks have had the stuffing kicked out of them. Most rum matures quickly, but I don't believe the category put as much investment into expansion, and certainly, the mismanagement of CARICOM and the failure to bring honest age statements and accurate labeling to rum has likely hurt the category badly and prevented the advance of its respect as a premium drink. Having said that, even with the decline there is still nearly one bottle of rum sold for every bottle of US whiskey in 2018. So it's still a giant category. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 It's also interesting to note that DISCUS starts its charts at the bottom of the last crash. So it's giving us a rather rosy picture of the situation. They ARE a spirits advocacy site, so... The data from the chart below comes from the National Institute of Health on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, who have no problem including what is essentially the sales data from the end of the last boom, ie THE GLUT. Note that back then things crashed faster than they've been building for the last 20 yrs, and it was about a 17yr slide. Maybe it won't happen like that again. But then...maybe it will. I remember people saying that bourbon fell out of fashion a long time ago because it's what hip people's square old grandparents drank. There are a fair few grandfathers on this forum, and even the younger ones among us are old enough to be the fathers of university students... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now