Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[kevinbrink]

14 hours ago, Jazz June said:

Tonight I saw Jim Beam Black bottles with the 8 year age statement, except that they appear to be new bottles. Did the age statement come back? If so, I'd say that's a sign that inventories are catching up.

What was the bottle shape? The recent black is the more squat kind of rectangular shaped bottles, the older Black 8 year was the taller bottle, I don't have a current black but here are the last few labels with a DC for current bottle shape context. 

[Saul_cooperstein]

Hmmm. I look at the LE pricing in liquor stores maybe just a little differently. While I think bottles likely sitting because stores are pricing 20% beyond, not at, secondary...I think the more interesting part of the equation is that information is far more prevalent. The mystery is gone. And as others have said, having these types of bottles readily available even at a high price takes away from their luster. When boom was just really getting underway a few years ago I remember articles touted VW as bourbon even a billionaire couldn’t get because of its rarity / etc.  No one saw it on the shelf. A big emotional difference between something unattainable vs something expensive.  In addition the shift of product from retail to food service makes it further more attainable for more people. I think these are big factors and will have real impact on new drinkers and how they perceive the market. I still see the LE market mirroring many of the attributes of the CA cult Cabernet craze that began in mid 90s. Many once sought after bottles (Harlan, Colgin) are now just expensive but available, some have kept their luster and value steadily increases (Screaming Eagle) and new sensations emerge (Macdonald). I expect same dynamics in American LE whiskey moving forward. 

[Surtur]

7 hours ago, bourbon4all said:

Wow congrats on the pewter, that’s quite a find. What year Rare Breed?

Hmmm I don’t remember exactly as I found that one in February, but it was an early Batch 03. Early 2000s if I remember right

[Charlutz]

7 hours ago, Saul_cooperstein said:

Hmmm. I look at the LE pricing in liquor stores maybe just a little differently. While I think bottles likely sitting because stores are pricing 20% beyond, not at, secondary...I think the more interesting part of the equation is that information is far more prevalent. The mystery is gone. And as others have said, having these types of bottles readily available even at a high price takes away from their luster. When boom was just really getting underway a few years ago I remember articles touted VW as bourbon even a billionaire couldn’t get because of its rarity / etc.  No one saw it on the shelf. A big emotional difference between something unattainable vs something expensive.  In addition the shift of product from retail to food service makes it further more attainable for more people. I think these are big factors and will have real impact on new drinkers and how they perceive the market. I still see the LE market mirroring many of the attributes of the CA cult Cabernet craze that began in mid 90s. Many once sought after bottles (Harlan, Colgin) are now just expensive but available, some have kept their luster and value steadily increases (Screaming Eagle) and new sensations emerge (Macdonald). I expect same dynamics in American LE whiskey moving forward. 

I agree, but the time to age whiskey makes it difficult to compare with wine, craft beer, cigars, etc. It can take a decade to catch up to demand, all the while that boom is continuing to spawn new fans who can’t find what they want. The dynamics are the same as with those other products, but unfortunately the length of the aging process is elongating the length of the boom. 

[Saul_cooperstein]

10 minutes ago, Charlutz said:

I agree, but the time to age whiskey makes it difficult to compare with wine, craft beer, cigars, etc. It can take a decade to catch up to demand, all the while that boom is continuing to spawn new fans who can’t find what they want. The dynamics are the same as with those other products, but unfortunately the length of the aging process is elongating the length of the boom. 

Yes on a macro level. But specific to LEs vs cult cabs I think dynamics are pretty similar. 

[jsgorman]

The Bourbon market is now trending similar to Scotch and Fine Wines.   There will continue to be a strong market for the wealthy who wish to acquire rare / limited / older bottles that are exceptionally well regarded and well established bar-brands will stay strong as the millennials are drinking whisky cocktails (unlike my Gen-X brethren at the same age).

 

The biggest issue is that the current market is more prestige focused than ever before.  Most consumers aren't self confident of their own pallet and likely couldn't pick their "favorite' bourbon in a double blind.  Given that there are so many brands and sub-brands out there - it's a pretty confusing and expensive time to learn about flavor profiles and discern between a great bourbon and a great value.

 

I sold through Skinner Auction House the majority of my bunker a few years ago - I had more than I'd drink and there isn't anything I sold that I'd buy-back at the price I sold it for.  I still have more than I'll ever drink and am selling a few more bottles to help out a friend who needs some cash in a pinch.   But so long as there are limited quantities of things that wealthy people value - only a recession will dip auction pricing.  

 

But as far as retail pricing - there isn't much value in the mid-to-high range and the pricing is a lot more extreme for minimal discernible barrel age or BIB / barrel proof.  I'm glad I put together my bunker years ago - I still prefer the Wild Turkey RR 10YO (101) to anything that retails for $50-60 - and I paid $25 per bottle when I learned it was being replaced.  

 

 

[HoustonNit]

@Surtur some very nice Turkey finds.

[smokinjoe]

Until these numbers reverse, the boom is not over:

 

Sales of American whiskey grew 8.1 percent in 2017, jumping $252 million to $3.4 billion, according to the Distilled Spirits Council. Total sales outpaced sales of other adult beverages in the same year, including tequila, cognac and Irish whiskey.

 

There is always the temptation to confuse the shenanigans of the “bubble”, and its focus on secondary markets, limited edition pricing and availability, one’s personal position and opinion thereof, etc, with the actual realities  

of the continued “boom” growth of bourbon.  The “boom” is still very much alive.  

[DeepCover]

2 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

Until these numbers reverse, the boom is not over:

 

Sales of American whiskey grew 8.1 percent in 2017, jumping $252 million to $3.4 billion, according to the Distilled Spirits Council. Total sales outpaced sales of other adult beverages in the same year, including tequila, cognac and Irish whiskey.

 

There is always the temptation to confuse the shenanigans of the “bubble”, and its focus on secondary markets, limited edition pricing and availability, one’s personal position and opinion thereof, etc, with the actual realities  

of the continued “boom” growth of bourbon.  The “boom” is still very much alive.  

I’d like to see how that compares to production. I feel like it’s outpacing demand on the distillation side, but with the added step of aging, I feel like we’re still years away from available aged whiskey outpacing demand. I’d like to see the numbers though.

[mbroo5880i]

25 minutes ago, Whiskey Junkie said:

After work I decided to stop at 3 stores while out shopping for tools at Home Depot.  

Fortunately, the price of tools, especially cordless power tools continues to go down.  There must be a glut so now is the time to buy before all the millennials realize they can't spend all of their money on bourbon and they start buying up tools.  

 

Edited December 4, 2018 by mbroo5880i

[fishnbowljoe]

9 minutes ago, mbroo5880i said:

Fortunately, the price of tools, especially cordless power tools continues to go down.  There must be a glut so now is the time to buy before all the millennials realize they can't spend all of their money on bourbon and they start buying up tools.  

 

I seem to remember someone once saying that he thought that many of the millennials “are” tools.  

 

Biba! Joe

[smokinjoe]

45 minutes ago, Whiskey Junkie said:

So around 11am today I got a call from the owner of a store that I have stepped in to twice over all  and over a year ago.  He had my name on a list for limiteds and got a GTS today and let me know it was $499 and that was the cheapest in the area.  I thanked him and said I would consider it (no chance) and would stop by soon.

After work I decided to stop at 3 stores while out shopping for tools at Home Depot.  One store got 1 each of the Pappy 10-12 and 15 today all for 399-599-899. They had never gotten anything Pappy wise until today.  The 2nd store had a bottle of OVW 10 for 499 and  first time for them too. Third store is in an area/shopping center that doesn't sell any high end stuff especially liquor-low end all the way. So, new owner again here, and had GTS for 499, Michters 10 at 149, ORVW 10 for 399.  Just like the guys said here above, everyone is getting something now.  These will be their stars on the shelf that may still be there next year.  I still am calling a top here and interested to see what after after Christmas and winter bourbon season.  Prices may be up overall due to inflation but inventories at the store level will be high for foreseeable future in my opinion.  Time will tell.

"Everyone" is not getting "something", now.  

[Jazz June]

On 12/1/2018 at 9:30 AM, kevinbrink said:

What was the bottle shape? The recent black is the more squat kind of rectangular shaped bottles, the older Black 8 year was the taller bottle, I don't have a current black but here are the last few labels with a DC for current bottle shape context. 

My mistake. I think it was the middle of the three age stated bottles in the picture. I guess the boom continues then...

[Clueby]

The boom is definitely not over. TW lottery this morning had 500+ people for a chance at 130ish bottles. Two hours in 19 degree weather and the 3 of us got nothing. Couple people I know were a little luckier.

[JCwhammie]

19 minutes ago, Clueby said:

The boom is definitely not over. TW lottery this morning had 500+ people for a chance at 130ish bottles. Two hours in 19 degree weather and the 3 of us got nothing. Couple people I know were a little luckier.

I decided to sit this one out. I heard all 3 locations had crazy big turnouts

 

[Clueby]

34 minutes ago, JCwhammie said:

I decided to sit this one out. I heard all 3 locations had crazy big turnouts

 

You probably had about the same chance. They did have a 2015 PVW23 and 3 bottles of WHH27.

[0895]

1 hour ago, Clueby said:

Couple people I know were a little luckier.

 

Sorry buddy.  It was fun hanging out anyway. 

 

 

[Harry in WashDC]

Slight bump - don't remember what more recent thread speaks to this --

Chuck's latest hardcopy Bourbon Country Reader has this palate-warming sentence: "Sazerac President Mark Brown has predicted that the standard [for what is considered "fully aged" bourbon] will be more like eight years in the future [instead of the current four]."  Brackets are mine and are parts of surrounding sentences.  Chuck then notes that the rackhouse construction boom started about 20 years ago and that typical rackhouse size has increased from 20,00 barrels to 50,000 with some new houses holding 50,000 barrels.

 

Does this mean that stuff from the houses built in the last ten to twenty years will start giving up their treasure?  Will you SBers in Kentucky keep an eye out for increased forklift traffic in and around all those relatively new houses and report????

[kevinbrink]

I thought this was a good read comparing the Whiskey boom (primarily from a Scotch perspective) to Comic Books in the 90s

https://scotchwhisky.com/magazine/culture/25503/marvel-s-cautionary-tale-for-whisky-makers/?utm_source=mailjet

[Bob_Loblaw]

My answer to the thread topic is a big fat NOPE.

[callingtom]

1 hour ago, kevinbrink said:

I thought this was a good read comparing the Whiskey boom (primarily from a Scotch perspective) to Comic Books in the 90s

https://scotchwhisky.com/magazine/culture/25503/marvel-s-cautionary-tale-for-whisky-makers/?utm_source=mailjet

Cool read, and I most likely agree.  I am still pretty new to this forum, but I think that most people here have benefited from the boom.  I wish I could find RHF and Elmer on the shelf for MSRP, but I also look at all the cool new bottles I am trying.  For what I think is pretty cheap.  Bourbon used to be an after thought at most LS's and now when you walk in Bourbon is front and center.  Since I rarely overpay for a bottle I don't think I will be hurt if they are all worth 25% of MSRP in a few years.  I bought a MM Cask Strength @ Binny's today for $39.99.  I feel pretty lucky.

[ModestGlutton]

I haven't been in these parts in quite a while. But I dare say from the time I've been away my lips have been "familiarized" with some greats worth trying. I tried a bottle of Elmer for $60, several Eagles for $40 each (my favorite so far) and Blade and Bow from Costco which is sharp but not bad and a fair handful of others par for the course. But the question remains; has the boom come and gone? No, it hasn't. Not only are more "sophisticated" palettes of young drinkers (like myself) come to appreciate a nice decanter vs a cooler of tastes beer. But emerging markets (not just the U.K.) are acquiring tastes other than blonde Jezebel's and trucks. And competing markets like Australia will hopefully fuel a higher quality product on both sides (and hopefully a lower price). So I hope your boots are tied tight and your cantines filled, because ladies, it's going be a long march to the top.

[alcoholica]

Last weekend I saw someone selling Blanton’s, OWA and W12 for $299...each. I just laughed and left. 

 

Whether or not it’s at its peak, I do my part to make it the peak. I no longer seek out rare bottles, I never have paid much over MSRP and I now actively encourage people to stop doing so, and i’m drinking almost exclusively from my bunker. I am no longer feeding the beast in that regard. 

 

I will I’ll be heading to Ky this year. On my list is to purchase low price Heaven Hill BiB products, such as TW Samuels and the like. Other bourbons like Early Times BiB and the Beam 375 alternate BiB “Old Tub” I think. Also, Ky seems to have some really nice store picks. But chasing the Unicorns, I’m out. 

[HoustonNit]

I thought this was a good read comparing the Whiskey boom (primarily from a Scotch perspective) to Comic Books in the 90s
https://scotchwhisky.com/magazine/culture/25503/marvel-s-cautionary-tale-for-whisky-makers/?utm_source=mailjet

I posted something similar about the late 80s baseball card crash. Funny part is the kids that where behind the baseball cards are now the same adults driving what’s going on in bourbon. Has anyone seen the Nee Riff private selection that had the 89 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. sticker? No one had seemed to pick up on the irony.

[fishnbowljoe]

The boom has peaked. It’s just a lot of stupid s**t going on now.  

 

Biba! Joe