Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Marekv8]

59 minutes ago, kevinbrink said:

I have bought a few pricey bottles a year from the same store for a number of years, last year I walked in one fall day and my monger told me he held the GTS he got for me, I purchased one from him the previous year for $199 which was apparently my threshold, this year he rang it up at $499 and I passed quite easily. Relationship building unfortunately isn't always a two way street. 

 

I was dealt a nice wake-up call a few years back. I had assumed that I was one of a particular store’s better customers when the little old lady in front of me dropped $12K on wine and champagne— apparently a monthly ritual. I have since stepped up my game, not with purchases— but with information, assistance and enthusiasm. There will always be bigger spenders, but not necessarily better customers.

[Surtur]

6 hours ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

I’m wondering if others are feeling the same way I am.  Throughout this whole boom I have faithfully visited the smaller local shops and most have rewarded me with an occasional nice bottle at a fair price. This year, however, things are almost universally different.  The number of shops that are pricing close to secondary unbelievable. When I ask what happened the owner tells me he can’t justify selling it for less. Not even to faithful customers.  I’ve just about reached the point where I have ZERO incentive to visit these places. I’m better off just going to big box shops like Costco or Sams. Most bottles are at least $5 sometimes $10 cheaper and I can usually find something decent.  Why even buy anything from the smaller shops?  

 

Im not there yet but I can see a time coming soon where there just won’t be a reason to give any business to the small shops.  Is it possible some shift like this will stop the boom?  

 

I used to build relationships with small shops and hope for the best but in the end, you have to worry about yourself first. At least I’m my case I can’t afford to pay even $20 more on a bottle in the hopes the owner might remember me when they get something special. Truthfully I have two shops I frequent for different things, makes me feel like I have two wives sometimes but my number one interest is saving a few dollars in the ever increasingly more expensive hobby. One of my shops is a small family business and as much as I would love to support them fully, they now sell Henry mckenna for $100 so forget it, however they do have insanely cheap prices on other things, namely $15 for Rittenhouse and $25 for a 1.75 of WT101. Everything else I go to BevMo where they actually do save me special things because I have befriended the manager and I share what I get with him. BevMo can be a little pricey on some things too but OWA for $30 vs $100 now or more on secondary? I’ll take that

[alcoholica]

8 hours ago, Marekv8 said:

 

I was dealt a nice wake-up call a few years back. I had assumed that I was one of a particular store’s better customers when the little old lady in front of me dropped $12K on wine and champagne— apparently a monthly ritual. I have since stepped up my game, not with purchases— but with information, assistance and enthusiasm. There will always be bigger spenders, but not necessarily better customers.

I tried that. This little small town liquor store had a bunch of Bookers and Buffalo Trace products (not the super rare stuff). I asked him if he could get certain bottles and educated him on bourbon. He told me that he could get a GTS and that he'd charge me normal markup, but wouldn't know what it was until it came in, but he'd give me a call. I waited a couple weeks after I had heard BTAC's were hitting for lotteries. I go in, and he's not there, but the GTS is sitting on a shelf for $600. So I go back a couple months later and he is there but the GTS is gone. I asked about the GTS and he said that his father sold it before it ever went on the shelf. Just lied to my face. I kind of hate to admit it, but I put an honest review on Google of what happened. Every now and again, I get an email saying that my review was useful.

[The Black Tot]

I have had a lot of the same experiences. My last reliable mom and pop provider of limiteds tried to charge me $400 for GTS last year. 

 

So I'm not getting any of those for a while. Maybe like a 10yrs while, too.

 

So I'm drinking from the bunker and working on guitars these days, waitin' on a couple dozen million barrels in Kentucky to mature.

[BrokeCal]

Here is an interesting story on CNN.  Maybe it's a sign the boom will be coming to an end?  One can only hope.

[DCFan]

18 minutes ago, BrokeCal said:

Here is an interesting story on CNN.  Maybe it's a sign the boom will be coming to an end?  One can only hope.

Don't believe it. This ranks right up there with global warming. Nothing we can do about it so enjoy your time on this planet and bottoms up.  

[alcoholica]

The taters buying all the unicorns already don’t drink the stuff

[FreddyC]

On 6/4/2019 at 8:01 AM, smokinjoe said:

  My opinion is that as long as you are not obsessing over them, and regularly heading out on an encompassing “hunt” to grab as many of these allocated  bottles as you can fit in your van, you’re probably OK. Like the DICK who is clearing out the McKenna at the Meijer...

 

 

Don't get me started on that guy!!!  LOL!  I'm starting to get broken of the "find Weller" fixation I was on. My wife has helped me do a couple of blind comparisons and both times I've done this, I preferred Maker's 46 and Larceny to the Weller SR.  I still want to try the 107, but I never have any luck finding that. I do like having Weller around though. I have a couple of buddies that come over and always want a pour....they know the name and that's what drives their selection. 

[HoustonNit]

Don't get me started on that guy!!!  LOL!  I'm starting to get broken of the "find Weller" fixation I was on. My wife has helped me do a couple of blind comparisons and both times I've done this, I preferred Maker's 46 and Larceny to the Weller SR.  I still want to try the 107, but I never have any luck finding that. I do like having Weller around though. I have a couple of buddies that come over and always want a pour....they know the name and that's what drives their selection. 

Weller Antique and 12 are to my opinion much better than WSR. Still not worth the prices some are charging and you still may prefer Makers 46 and Larceny over these.

[Limegoldconvertible68]

1 hour ago, FreddyC said:

Don't get me started on that guy!!!  LOL!  I'm starting to get broken of the "find Weller" fixation I was on. My wife has helped me do a couple of blind comparisons and both times I've done this, I preferred Maker's 46 and Larceny to the Weller SR.  I still want to try the 107, but I never have any luck finding that. I do like having Weller around though. I have a couple of buddies that come over and always want a pour....they know the name and that's what drives their selection. 

The ole blind test can be a real eye opener.  I hope you manage to find a reasonably priced bottle of 107 but I can almost guarantee you will pick Maker’s Cask Strength over Antique in a blind taste test.  While I love pulling out a bottle of Weller to impress guests(yes, I am that shallow) there is a lot of bourbon out there that my palate prefers more.  

[jwperry]

Since I'm still very much a noob to secondary market or most anything bourbon, I wonder if the new FB crack down on the secondary market will help grind this to a halt? 

 

I haven't actively used FB in years until I read (I think on here) about local groups dedicated to tastings and such. Many of the groups I've joined see the most activity circulating around B/S/T aspect of allocated or harder to find items. Removal of that aspect of the groups will likely bring a lot of attrition due to lack of interest (IMO). 

[flahute]

5 minutes ago, jwperry said:

Since I'm still very much a noob to secondary market or most anything bourbon, I wonder if the new FB crack down on the secondary market will help grind this to a halt? 

 

I haven't actively used FB in years until I read (I think on here) about local groups dedicated to tastings and such. Many of the groups I've joined see the most activity circulating around B/S/T aspect of allocated or harder to find items. Removal of that aspect of the groups will likely bring a lot of attrition due to lack of interest (IMO). 

It will not. They will pop right back up. This has already happened a few times. 

[jwperry]

5 minutes ago, flahute said:

It will not. They will pop right back up. This has already happened a few times. 

Ah, didn't know that. I was hoping that the dudes who brag on the local group about finding hard the find stuff at MSRP, then immediately post it on BSM pages would disappear and just leave it on the shelf for the rest of us. 

[BottledInBond]

6 minutes ago, jwperry said:

Ah, didn't know that. I was hoping that the dudes who brag on the local group about finding hard the find stuff at MSRP, then immediately post it on BSM pages would disappear and just leave it on the shelf for the rest of us. 

There are other ways people sell stuff (Craigslist, Bottlespot, etc.) so even a full and permanent FB crackdown wouldn’t cut it all out. At the end of the day it is all supply and demand. As long as their is still high demand and fairly limited supply buyers and sellers will still find ways to connect and determine a price. As long as there is still profit opportunity people will continue flipping bottles. 

[alcoholica]

51 minutes ago, BottledInBond said:

There are other ways people sell stuff (Craigslist, Bottlespot, etc.) so even a full and permanent FB crackdown wouldn’t cut it all out. At the end of the day it is all supply and demand. As long as their is still high demand and fairly limited supply buyers and sellers will still find ways to connect and determine a price. As long as there is still profit opportunity people will continue flipping bottles. 

Yup, and it’s a market propped up on people viewing it as a commodity. Most of these taters don’t even drink it. 

 

Pretty much why why I look for value bourbons these days. That and my trip to KY this year where i’ll load up on quality store picks, and KY only type stuff 

[Thig]

Peerless, just in case you thought the boom had passed. Sorry I can't post the link, just Google it.

Kentucky distillery’s first bourbon in 102 years sells out in less than a day

[Phil T]

Congrats to them! The back story is certainly interesting.  However,  $69-$79 for a 4 yr old bourbon, no thanks. The boom has not passed.

[smokinjoe]

I’m not ready to “call” anything, but based on some things I’m seeing it’s my opinion that supply is catching up with the demand to a point that some “normalcy” should soon return to most standard products (regional imbalances not withstanding).   Beam may already be there, but each Distillery will most likely have its own timetable.  But, again I think most are near to being caught up, and capable of handling further growth with less strain.  When those trajectories intersect, and where they go from there is another story I can’t begin to guess upon.  

 

[flahute]

26 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

I’m not ready to “call” anything, but based on some things I’m seeing it’s my opinion that supply is catching up with the demand to a point that some “normalcy” should soon return to most standard products (regional imbalances not withstanding).   Beam may already be there, but each Distillery will most likely have its own timetable.  But, again I think most are near to being caught up, and capable of handling further growth with less strain.  When those trajectories intersect, and where they go from there is another story I can’t begin to guess upon.  

 

I'm in a local facebook group that's mostly information only and is not about flipping. The sheer number of newbies in there that get excited about and chase all the $125+new sourced bourbon labels is staggering. There are far too many to try to educate so I just observe. Very little conversation about the value pours we discuss here. Until this segment of the bourbon population starts to see the light and the flow of newcomers willing to blindly spend $125+ on sourced bourbon starts to slow, we have a ways to go yet.

I hope it slows soon because as long as they continue to show up, the distilleries will continue to raise prices. I welcome the returning age statements and increasing supply but I do wonder about continued price creep.

 

[Guss West]

Price creep is one of the primary motivations for a bunker.  Even my midshelf bottles have gone up 25% in retail prices in the last two years.  The boom is still booming, this is the new normal. 

 

 

[smokinjoe]

58 minutes ago, flahute said:

I'm in a local facebook group that's mostly information only and is not about flipping. The sheer number of newbies in there that get excited about and chase all the $125+new sourced bourbon labels is staggering. There are far too many to try to educate so I just observe. Very little conversation about the value pours we discuss here. Until this segment of the bourbon population starts to see the light and the flow of newcomers willing to blindly spend $125+ on sourced bourbon starts to slow, we have a ways to go yet.

I hope it slows soon because as long as they continue to show up, the distilleries will continue to raise prices. I welcome the returning age statements and increasing supply but I do wonder about continued price creep.

 

Yeah, I get the irrational exuberance of the secondary and new to the game folks and where they may impact pricing at the local store, but they really don’t effect the general macro dynamics of the supply/demand market.  The boom is entirely macro, the other shenanigans (bubble) are the micro.  I work very hard to keep them separated in my mind in these discussions. 

[Phil T]

Joe and Steve are very deep thinkers.

 

Me? Not so much.

[smokinjoe]

11 minutes ago, Phil T said:

Joe and Steve are very deep thinkers.

 

Me? Not so much.

Yeah, but you’re drunk at the beach.  So, YOU WIN!!!!!  

 

 

[flahute]

23 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

Yeah, but you’re drunk at the beach.  So, YOU WIN!!!!!  

 

 

I concur. 

[PaulO]

3 hours ago, flahute said:

I'm in a local facebook group that's mostly information only and is not about flipping. The sheer number of newbies in there that get excited about and chase all the $125+new sourced bourbon labels is staggering. There are far too many to try to educate so I just observe. Very little conversation about the value pours we discuss here. Until this segment of the bourbon population starts to see the light and the flow of newcomers willing to blindly spend $125+ on sourced bourbon starts to slow, we have a ways to go yet.

...

I wonder about the people that buy expensive new sourced bourbon labels, or some of the "craft" products.  Are there repeat purchases?  It doesn't seem sustainable without some loyal customers.  On the other hand, it could be a sucker born every minute, just keep churning out new labels.

I'd like to see some of these folks try WT or OGD in a blind tasting with the stuff they buy.  That would be funny.