Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[kaiserhog]

I think the boom has peaked but demand will decline very slowly and it will be barely noticeable.

[squire]

It has for me, they're enough BIBs on the shelves to suit my needs.  The only whisky I want but cannot easily get is the 6 year old Green Label Heaven Hill.

[TimeWillTell]

On 5/2/2019 at 10:00 AM, alcoholica said:

Last weekend I saw someone selling Blanton’s, OWA and W12 for $299...each. I just laughed and left. 

 

Whether or not it’s at its peak, I do my part to make it the peak. I no longer seek out rare bottles, I never have paid much over MSRP and I now actively encourage people to stop doing so, and i’m drinking almost exclusively from my bunker. I am no longer feeding the beast in that regard. 

 

I will I’ll be heading to Ky this year. On my list is to purchase low price Heaven Hill BiB products, such as TW Samuels and the like. Other bourbons like Early Times BiB and the Beam 375 alternate BiB “Old Tub” I think. Also, Ky seems to have some really nice store picks. But chasing the Unicorns, I’m out. 

Exactly what I did last week. Good luck!

[Guss West]

Good to see you, squire! 

 

Well and truly, bourbon zen master!! 

[HoustonNit]

I was at Whole Foods, I normally don’t shop here but I was on my bicycle with my kid after going to the park and we stopped to get him some ice cream and to pick up some flowers for my wife for Mother’s Day.

At the registers there was Bourbon magazine with a big picture of BT tour guide Freddie Johnson. All I could thing was wow we are treating tour guides like rock stars and there’s a dedicated magazine to bourbon next to Food and Wine at every Whole Foods in America. No way is the boom over, we haven’t even hit the peak.

Maybe this should go in confess your unpopular bourbon opinion.

[Guss West]

Not all tour guides are rock stars.  Freddie is. 

 

I check for whiskey mags while killing time in airports too. 

 

 

 

 

[HoustonNit]

Not all tour guides are rock stars.  Freddie is. 
 
 
 
 

I agree I’d rather meet Freddie than probably any rock star. This however should be the opinion of a very small subset of people on forums like this. The idea that Freddie is out there in magazines in every Whole Food next to actual rock stars tells me the boom is far from over.

[kcgumbohead]

8 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 

I agree I’d rather meet Freddie than probably any rock star. This however should be the opinion of a very small subset of people on forums like this. The idea that Freddie is out there in magazines in every Whole Food next to actual rock stars tells me the boom is far from over.

 

It may also be emblematic of its peak, which I see as a more gradual plateau. There is just so much noise out there right now, it just "feels" different, but then again, could just be my bourbon zen talkin .

[flahute]

3 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

I was at Whole Foods, I normally don’t shop here but I was on my bicycle with my kid after going to the park and we stopped to get him some ice cream and to pick up some flowers for my wife for Mother’s Day.

At the registers there was Bourbon magazine with a big picture of BT tour guide Freddie Johnson. All I could thing was wow we are treating tour guides like rock stars and there’s a dedicated magazine to bourbon next to Food and Wine at every Whole Foods in America. No way is the boom over, we haven’t even hit the peak.

Maybe this should go in confess your unpopular bourbon opinion.

It's a good magazine, you should read it.

[alcoholica]

20 hours ago, squire said:

It has for me, they're enough BIBs on the shelves to suit my needs.  The only whisky I want but cannot easily get is the 6 year old Green Label Heaven Hill.

 

There is an outside shot for you. Find out what states sell it and look for online shippers in those states. I know KY and GA sell it, not sure who else. You many get lucky and find it that way.  Some of these retailers will run free shipping promo's every now and again.

 

 

10 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

 

I agree I’d rather meet Freddie than probably any rock star. This however should be the opinion of a very small subset of people on forums like this. The idea that Freddie is out there in magazines in every Whole Food next to actual rock stars tells me the boom is far from over.

 

 

Freddie did the EH Taylor tour for us. It was right after he was announced for the HOF. He really is a Treasure. Ranks higher than many of the Master Distillers in my book. It truly was a pleasure.

[HoustonNit]

 
Freddie did the EH Taylor tour for us. It was right after he was announced for the HOF. He really is a Treasure. Ranks higher than many of the Master Distillers in my book. It truly was a pleasure.

Wow quite the endorsement. I just read an article about Freddie, always assumed he worked there but it looks like before his time as a tour guide he worked for AT&T.

[alcoholica]

8 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Wow quite the endorsement. I just read an article about Freddie, always assumed he worked there but it looks like before his time as a tour guide he worked for AT&T.

 

I think he was an engineer, but not sure of that. Came home to work at Buffalo Trace, I believe as a promise to his father. He's a 3rd generation employee. I mean it could be all a put-on, but he really comes off as salt of the earth anytime i see him online in a clip. If you haven't seen Neat, he plays a large role in that. I think he also has an episode with Fred Minnick on his Amazon Prime show. 

[squire]

15 hours ago, alcoholica said:

 

There is an outside shot for you. Find out what states sell it and look for online shippers in those states. I know KY and GA sell it, not sure who else. You many get lucky and find it that way.  Some of these retailers will run free shipping promo's every now and again.

 

 

Oh I can get it, just not easily.  If I left here early in the morning I could cross the Kentucky State line by lunchtime.  Being cheap though I'd rather take the travel money and buy a case of Old Grand Dad.  My favorite Whisky Girl, Christina, runs a store 8 minutes from my front door and she will order me anything on the State list then call when it arrives.

 

 

[alcoholica]

So I joined a couple secondary market FB groups to see what it's like. I would never buy anything from any of them, because that's just silly. But it's interesting (and infuriating) to observe. I firmly believe that if the ATF were to do their jobs and shut down the private sale of alcohol, that the boom would be over. Not that growth might not still occur, but we are in a bubble.

 

Two facts about hoarding:

1. Drinkers hoard because they don't know when they'll see a specific bottle again
2. Flippers hoard to make money

But both groups hoard. This is creating an artificial demand. Why artificial? Because group A is buying way faster than consumption, and group B is reminiscent of Tulip Mania.

 

Honestly, these sites seem more like bitcoin than anything, only bitcoin on the whiskey standard. These guys just have stockpiles of the stuff, and they always have some excuse of why they're selling. But I never hear any of them say, "this is a great bottle. I had  one with some buddies and the flavor was amazing with x,y,z coming through." I never hear any of them actually talk about bourbon other than overpricing it.

 

So if the ATF were to crack down, you'd see two things for sure. 1) a bunch of taters stuck with moutainload of whiskey that they don't drink, so they obviously wouldn't be buying more, or their sales reach is very reduced. 2) the rest of us stop hoarding as much, but still get to buy bottles that we want 

 

Just a thought. 

[Mako254]

Seen in a handful of stores along I95 from St Augustine Fl to where 26 picks up north of walterboro:

-Booker’s (anni’s answer) for $109. They wouldn’t budge stating ‘buffalo trace made it an allocated item’

-Blantons for $170

-ETL $150

-multiple four roses SBLE for $499

-Booker’s rye for $1499

-pvw and btac w/ no price 

-old fitz decanters for $299

 

to hell with all of that and the taters driving it. 

 

 

[lcpfratn]

Seen in a handful of stores along I95 from St Augustine Fl to where 26 picks up north of walterboro:
-Booker’s (anni’s answer) for $109. They wouldn’t budge stating ‘buffalo trace made it an allocated item’
-Blantons for $170
-ETL $150
-multiple four roses SBLE for $499
-Booker’s rye for $1499
-pvw and btac w/ no price 
-old fitz decanters for $299
 
to hell with all of that and the taters driving it. 
 
 

They apparently don’t even know who makes what since BT has nothing to do with Booker’s!

[Shizzy]

Out here in the Wild Wild West, where everything is limited and sales on anything perceived as collectible are at secondary market prices straight out of the liquor store, I've begun to notice some price increases.  I went to a store who is known to get some choice items and carry some regular stuff that I enjoy.  I had purchased a 1.75 of BT because I was barrel aging some Manhattans for my upcoming nuptials.  Price was $44.99.  I went back this week to pick up another bottle as I figured it would be a great mixer for people and they could keep their hands off my other stuff.  Price increased to $52.99.  They're selling WSR for $79.99!  I like the stuff, but I'm not paying that much for what I would call a good entry level wheated bourbon.  When regular old BT starts to disappear from our shelves, I can understand the "hoard" mode that everyone is getting into.  It's a good thing I'm fat, dumb and happy drinking my WT101.

[alcoholica]

56 minutes ago, Shizzy said:

Out here in the Wild Wild West, where everything is limited and sales on anything perceived as collectible are at secondary market prices straight out of the liquor store, I've begun to notice some price increases.  I went to a store who is known to get some choice items and carry some regular stuff that I enjoy.  I had purchased a 1.75 of BT because I was barrel aging some Manhattans for my upcoming nuptials.  Price was $44.99.  I went back this week to pick up another bottle as I figured it would be a great mixer for people and they could keep their hands off my other stuff.  Price increased to $52.99.  They're selling WSR for $79.99!  I like the stuff, but I'm not paying that much for what I would call a good entry level wheated bourbon.  When regular old BT starts to disappear from our shelves, I can understand the "hoard" mode that everyone is getting into.  It's a good thing I'm fat, dumb and happy drinking my WT101.

I recently opened a bottle of 101. Damn that’s just great stuff. Ef the taters

 

[HoustonNit]

Out here in the Wild Wild West, where everything is limited and sales on anything perceived as collectible are at secondary market prices straight out of the liquor store, I've begun to notice some price increases.  I went to a store who is known to get some choice items and carry some regular stuff that I enjoy.  I had purchased a 1.75 of BT because I was barrel aging some Manhattans for my upcoming nuptials.  Price was $44.99.  I went back this week to pick up another bottle as I figured it would be a great mixer for people and they could keep their hands off my other stuff.  Price increased to $52.99.  They're selling WSR for $79.99!  I like the stuff, but I'm not paying that much for what I would call a good entry level wheated bourbon.  When regular old BT starts to disappear from our shelves, I can understand the "hoard" mode that everyone is getting into.  It's a good thing I'm fat, dumb and happy drinking my WT101.

I can’t really comment on the fat part but your certainly not dumb for drinking WT101 and avoiding overpriced BT products.

[HoustonNit]

Seen in a handful of stores along I95 from St Augustine Fl to where 26 picks up north of walterboro:
-Booker’s (anni’s answer) for $109. They wouldn’t budge stating ‘buffalo trace made it an allocated item’
-Blantons for $170
-ETL $150
-multiple four roses SBLE for $499
-Booker’s rye for $1499
-pvw and btac w/ no price 
-old fitz decanters for $299
 
to hell with all of that and the taters driving it. 
 
 

How old do you think the Old Fitz decanters are, 70s SW? If so it’s maybe the only thing not crazy, I still wouldn’t pay it but...

[Shizzy]

23 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 

 

I can’t really comment on the fat part but your certainly not dumb for drinking WT101 and avoiding overpriced BT products.

 

LOL!  Fat.  Definitely fat.  But happy, for sure.

[squire]

The whole thing strikes me as a ship with a rudder stuck in one place.  I no longer care how limited some stuff is or how high retailers mark up the price because I'm literally not buying any of it.  Old Grand Dad for example is reliable, available. reasonably priced and suits me just fine.  Oh, I'll continue to buy new stuff such as the recent Rye expressions from Beam and Brown-Forman, even some artisanal products like Finger Lakes Distilling Bourbon, but I'm not buying anything from someone who didn't actually distill the whiskey that's in the bottle.

[0895]

6 hours ago, Shizzy said:

  I had purchased a 1.75 of BT because I was barrel aging some Manhattans for my upcoming nuptials.  Price was $44.99.  I went back this week to pick up another bottle as I figured it would be a great mixer for people and they could keep their hands off my other stuff. 

 

 It's a good thing I'm fat, dumb and happy drinking my WT101.

 

Im sure you already know, WT101 makes fantastic manhattans & other cocktails. 

[FreddyC]

Just from an anecdotal point of view, there are some folks that have enjoyed whiskey/bourbon for many years, but didn't know it was a "thing". For the past 25 years or so, I have gravitated to bourbon/whiskey because I liked it and not beer. I generally picked up what coincided with what was in my wallet.    Only in the past year (less than that really) have I evolved into an "enthusiast", but I don't feel like I'm just jumping on the bandwagon as I didn't even know there was a bandwagon to get on! I enjoy getting recommendations from people that are long time lovers of bourbon and not just getting in on the "cool" factor. That has led me to BiB brands and that's what I gravitate to as every day drinks. I like a variety, but I don't hoard....well I guess a little....when McKenna BiB won its' latest award I bought a few bottles (one for my boss) when the shelves started clearing out. I like that stuff and didn't want to have to do without it when I wanted it. Now I just sip it as a "special" gift to myself. If you find it at a chain store here in Louisville, it can still be had for $33, but some of the independent stores have been selling it for over $50. 

 

I'm still not really immersed in the bourbon culture, but I'm learning by coming to this site and I watch a couple YouTube channels (The Bourbon Guild is a favorite) that are fun and informative. So, to answer in line with the topic, a new enthusiast like myself sees it (the boom) as being bigger than I had previously thought. I'm on the side of wanting the hipsters and Johnny Come Lately's to move on so I can get my hands on some stuff that I won't likely get to try otherwise. 

 

I think this is my first "real" post, and I want to say I do enjoy lurking and reading what you guys/gals comment on! You veterans are full of great info! 

[Vosgar]

On 5/29/2019 at 12:49 PM, Shizzy said:

 It's a good thing I'm fat, dumb and happy drinking my WT101.

Made me think of this classic line from Animal House