Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[flahute]

39 minutes ago, Doug007 said:

That is exactly the kind of ridiculousness that happens at the peak.

 

I've talked to a few people that have tasted it and none of them were impressed.

True, BUT, we were saying the exact same thing 2 years ago about similar stupidity and people keep finding new and more expensive ways to be even more stupid.

[flahute]

18 minutes ago, kevinbrink said:

It's mentioned in this article by Minnick and is apparently an "Underground" blend, people are fucking stupid....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/fredminnick/2018/11/05/how-a-bourbon-auction-went-crazy-to-defeat-cancer/#1c8d2b86736f

Ah yes. That was my group's event. The Bald Monk went for half of what people pay for it online. A veritable bargain!

[kevinbrink]

2 minutes ago, flahute said:

Ah yes. That was my group's event. The Bald Monk went for half of what people pay for it online. A veritable bargain!

Is it just some home blend?

[kevinbrink]

17 minutes ago, flahute said:

Ah yes. That was my group's event. The Bald Monk went for half of what people pay for it online. A veritable bargain!

Just to another point in no way did I mean to diminish your groups event which clearly did a very fine service to a great cause

[flahute]

50 minutes ago, kevinbrink said:

Is it just some home blend?

It’s a J Mattingly product I think. Related to Old Baldy which was the first of the cult blends done by Ed Bley who was the spirits buyer at Cork N Bottle at the time. 

[kevinbrink]

2 hours ago, flahute said:

It’s a J Mattingly product I think. Related to Old Baldy which was the first of the cult blends done by Ed Bley who was the spirits buyer at Cork N Bottle at the time. 

That's what I suspected but Fred's use of the word "Underground" through me for a loop.

[Jazzhead]

Has the bourbon boom peaked?   I don't see how.   The big distilleries continue to be hailed as producing the best whiskeys in the world (was just reading the new Jim Murray (Whisky Bible)  and the category's hot enough that those who want to spend $900 bucks for a bottle of bourbon can do so, as well as those of us who only carry a Jackson.  

 

And then there's craft.    More and more are releasing straight bourbons,  and some of them are well worth the time of anyone on this board.   And that situation is only going to get better.   How they all find shelf space is beyond me,  but anyone from mega-retailers to mom-and-pops can display stuff no one else has.   

 

Speaking for myself, it's like being a pig in schitt out there.   

Edited November 28, 2018 by Jazzhead

[kevinbrink]

The travel retail market is always good for a laugh but usually it's Pricey NAS Scotch in Bespoke Lalique Decanters (though good to know Woodford is getting in on that game) but this ad copy repost, er I mean "article" by the Whiskey Wash is the best laugh I've had all day, the packaging for MM 101 is described as a Bespoke Carton........

 

It's a cardboard box.

https://thewhiskeywash.com/whiskey-styles/bourbon/makers-mark-101-bourbon-debuts-as-a-travel-retail-exclusive/

[Bbstout]

I'm sure I posted on this thread somewhere that I thought the boom had peaked bit now I'm thinking we have a long way to go. Look at all the great affordable bottles priced around $20...

 

Old Fitz BIB Gone

HHBIB Gone

Old Ezra 7 101 Gone

 

Henry McKenna raising prices and becoming allocated as well as OGD 114 raising prices (although not allocated yet)

 

I know I am spouting doom and gloom. But as a consumer before the craziness like many here, I am having a hard time dropping $50+ on bottles that are equal to what was available for $20 or less in the past. 

 

Looks like I am becoming a digruntled old man. Luckily I can grumble with a Bunker sufficiently stocked with great bottles at affordable pre boom prices.

 

I don't blame the Industry as we live in a Capitalist country and they have every right to seek maximum profits but I will miss "the good old days"

[kevinbrink]

4 minutes ago, Bbstout said:

I'm sure I posted on this thread somewhere that I thought the boom had peaked bit now I'm thinking we have a long way to go. Look at all the great affordable bottles priced around $20...

 

Old Fitz BIB Gone

HHBIB Gone

Old Ezra 7 101 Gone

 

Henry McKenna raising prices and becoming allocated as well as OGD 114 raising prices (although not allocated yet)

 

I know I am spouting doom and gloom. But as a consumer before the craziness like many here, I am having a hard time dropping $50+ on bottles that are equal to what was available for $20 or less in the past. 

 

Looks like I am becoming a digruntled old man. Luckily I can grumble with a Bunker sufficiently stocked with great bottles at affordable pre boom prices.

 

I don't blame the Industry as we live in a Capitalist country and they have every right to seek maximum profits but I will miss "the good old days"

I do wonder how our bunker building will impact the potential end of the boom, I wonder if the incoming crowd will mindlessly hoard away middle shelf whiskey in the way that I have, admittedly somewhat stupidly, done. I have plenty of OWA, ETL, RHF and honestly I rarely drink them. Once stocks become more plentiful and there is less scarcity the motivation for hoarding will go away. I do think that the growth in the Super High End LE's will continue but in some ways that can be problematic for an industry. Scotch has seen overall $ spent increase while volumes decline since consumers aren't buying entry level malts and more dramatically blends at volume anymore and to continue to feed the monster you need to move volume to make way for continued production. Building more warehouses if/when sales go flat will be a less desirable investment. 

 

Craft Beers boom is seems to be ending and I think excluding the continued dominance of the "New Hot IPA" the enthusiast community has slowed their buying because of full cellars and and over abundance of supply. I'm part of that crowd but I've also stopped buying the New Hot IPA for the most part. 

[Paddy]

I too, sometimes lament how swift things have evolved.  However, I guess it's evolution, but I'm now very content to buy WT101 ($16.99-19.99 in my area).  IMO, it's only gotten better over the past few years, and it's the best bang for the buck (traditional mashbill with good age/proof) readily available on the current market. 

 

As for splurges, I'll settle for WTRB.  Best barrel proof QPR on the market (and the current batch is very good)!  My TW is currently selling it for $36.99. 

 

Both are readily available, so is my glass half full?

[smokinjoe]

1 minute ago, Paddy said:

I too, sometimes lament how swift things have evolved.  However, I guess it's evolution, but I'm now very content to buy WT101 ($16.99-19.99 in my area).  IMO, it's only gotten better over the past few years, and it's the best bang for the buck (traditional mashbill with good age/proof) readily available on the current market. 

 

As for splurges, I'll settle for WTRB.  Best barrel proof QPR on the market (and the current batch is very good)!  My TW is currently selling it for $36.99. 

 

Both are readily available, so is my glass half full?

No sir.  Your cup runneth over with Goodness...  

[flahute]

^^^^^^^^^These two guys right here. All sorts of hell yes.

[Harry in WashDC]

On 11/27/2018 at 3:52 PM, flahute said:

True, BUT, we were saying the exact same thing 2 years ago about similar stupidity and people keep finding new and more expensive ways to be even more stupid.

For some perspective - This thread started on March 23, 2015, following several months of unfocused comments on miscellaneous threads RE: price increases and rolling shortages disappearing age statements, etc.  On Page two of this thread, I noted on 24 March that Whisky Advocate had articles by Chuck (no shortage) Cowdery and Fred (Shortage) Minnick commenting on the question although I stayed confused.

 

Go find them if you want to see what "we" thought back then OR better yet go read the first few pages of this thread - it is FASCINATING and a wonderful window into how we view the bourbon market.

 

Since then, we've seen quite a few changes in the market.  The unevenness of the market led me to try TONS (well, gallons) of brands and expressions I'd ignored.  On a macro scale, we all commented on new distilleries, distillery expansions, the end of the barrel shortage, the massive increase in rick houses at the majors (which increase was well underway in 2015; check out the Jack Daniels news on its expansion, for example), etc.

 

That was March 2015.  March 2019 means four years have gone by since this thread started, and it started some time AFTER we'd started complaining about shortages and prices AND after the majors had begun expanding production and storage.  As much as I miss the old Lot B @ $54 a 750, readily available OGD BIB at $16 a 750, and LEs collecting dust behind the counter because they are priced at $60 a 750, I cannot say I am disappointed with what I can get regularly now INCLUDING a bunch of new or resurrected brands and expressions.  And since my sweet spot for bourbon is 6 to 8 years at 100 proof or better, I have a bunker big enough to carry me until the circa 2014-5 distillate starts hitting the shelves in two to three years whether I buy current stuff or not.

 

ASIDE - Smugness about my bunker is not attractive, but at my age, "attractive" is not an adjective that applies to me, anyway.

[Harry in WashDC]

 

On 11/27/2018 at 3:52 PM, flahute said:

True, BUT, we were saying the exact same thing 2 years ago about similar stupidity and people keep finding new and more expensive ways to be even more stupid.

Um, Steve, I sure hope you recognized that my "perspective" comment was to augment your observation, not to give YOU some perspective.  For one thing, I note you also posted early on in this thread.

 

RE: the new and different ways of spending stupidly - this past Friday, I purchased one 750 of a craft rye, two 750s of a craft wheated, and a 750 of a craft bourbon, all about three years old and barrel proof, but at TWENTY PER CENT OFF THE MSRP!!!!  I sure hope they taste OK so I don't feel too stupid for driving, round trip, for five hours to get them.  On the plus side, I like their gin and white dog which is why I took the trip.  AND, the weather was nice for driving those back roads. 

[flahute]

1 hour ago, Harry in WashDC said:

 

Um, Steve, I sure hope you recognized that my "perspective" comment was to augment your observation, not to give YOU some perspective.  For one thing, I note you also posted early on in this thread.

 

RE: the new and different ways of spending stupidly - this past Friday, I purchased one 750 of a craft rye, two 750s of a craft wheated, and a 750 of a craft bourbon, all about three years old and barrel proof, but at TWENTY PER CENT OFF THE MSRP!!!!  I sure hope they taste OK so I don't feel too stupid for driving, round trip, for five hours to get them.  On the plus side, I like their gin and white dog which is why I took the trip.  AND, the weather was nice for driving those back roads. 

Had to go back and see what I said early in this thread. There were some naive moments but its mostly held up well.

Totally understood what you meant Harry!

And, I'd love to drive through the countryside with you one day in search of bourbon.

[Jazz June]

Tonight I saw Jim Beam Black bottles with the 8 year age statement, except that they appear to be new bottles. Did the age statement come back? If so, I'd say that's a sign that inventories are catching up.

[HoustonNit]

Tonight I saw Jim Beam Black bottles with the 8 year age statement, except that they appear to be new bottles. Did the age statement come back? If so, I'd say that's a sign that inventories are catching up.

Wow really? Fred Noe has said it’s his favorite so maybe he personally pushed for this?

[bourbon4all]

20 minutes ago, Jazz June said:

Tonight I saw Jim Beam Black bottles with the 8 year age statement, except that they appear to be new bottles. Did the age statement come back? If so, I'd say that's a sign that inventories are catching up.

I think quite a few could answer if you snapped a pic

[Surtur]

I think it has peaked, as in reached mass hysteria and only going to get better from here. 2018 I spent a lot of time tracking down Wild Turkey dusties, which led me to somewhere in the neighborhood of 100-200 new liquor stores. I saw various PVW ages in approximately 20% of stores I went to, which was unheard of around here any year prior in the boom. However, all the stores I have returned to since have failed to sell a single bottle this year, some of them nearly a year later because standard prices were $500, $700, $1000, $2000 and $2500 for the 10-23 year respectively. I saw a ton of BTAC for $600-$1000 depending on the bottle, EC18 for $200-400, OFBB for $400, etc. basically I found many bottles of every modern produced bourbon out there- that people aren’t buying.

 

this is obviously anecdotal evidence based on my experiences in my own area but even in Los Angeles area, people don’t want to buy these bottles for the prices being asked- supply has caught up with what people are willing to pay. I had a liquor store call me last night with a WLW for $799 plus tax which is basically $900 in LA taxes, to which I said fuc—I mean thank you but no. 

 

I’m a Wild Turkey fanboy so my life is a lot easier than other whiskey fandoms, but where I’m sitting things are looking better. It’s going to take a few years for shops to realize they’re being fools for charging that much, for the bandwagon bourbon fans to filter out, and the extra supply to catch up but it’s looking bright from all Ive seen

[HoustonNit]

@Surtur you find any dusty Turkey?

[Paddy]

^^^^So, unsold bottles on the shelves, at 5-10 x suggested retail, means things are better?

 

IMO, those bottles are priced that way for a reason.  Someone has/is/will always pay.  $500 to me = $5 to some folks out there.   

 

If nothing else, the comically high markup's do give those interested a bit of negotiating room. 

[Surtur]

3 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

@Surtur you find any dusty Turkey?

I did in fact find a pewter top KY Spirit, some old Rare Breed, a bunch of plain old 101 and some other stuff I think but I the CGF, Split Label, and Donut has all seemingly been bought unfortunately.

 

49 minutes ago, Paddy said:

^^^^So, unsold bottles on the shelves, at 5-10 x suggested retail, means things are better?

 

IMO, those bottles are priced that way for a reason.  Someone has/is/will always pay.  $500 to me = $5 to some folks out there.   

 

If nothing else, the comically high markup's do give those interested a bit of negotiating room. 

 

Bottles appearing on the shelves of small and sometimes seedy liquor stores for the first time in years, yes. To me that says stock is even getting in the hands of these other people, as remember I said I was dusty hunting so I’m hitting up every liquor store next to a tattoo shop downtown somewhere. I’ve done my share of dusty hunting in these types of stores and this is the first time it’s been common to see full lineups of all the big releases. And of course the bigger stores have them all too, same price. Oversaturation will end the boom, even if they are not being bought. It takes the mystique away when these young hunters see the same bottles in every store

[Theiano]

2 hours ago, Surtur said:

Bottles appearing on the shelves of small and sometimes seedy liquor stores for the first time in years, yes. To me that says stock is even getting in the hands of these other people, as remember I said I was dusty hunting so I’m hitting up every liquor store next to a tattoo shop downtown somewhere. I’ve done my share of dusty hunting in these types of stores and this is the first time it’s been common to see full lineups of all the big releases. And of course the bigger stores have them all too, same price. Oversaturation will end the boom, even if they are not being bought. It takes the mystique away when these young hunters see the same bottles in every store

I'm pretty much in agreement here, in fact I would go as far as to say the boom is over. This thread is about the peak, a lot of people think that a drop in prices mean the boom is over, but a stabilization is what is important. As far as I can see prices have stabilized, and I don't mean MSRPs, I mean secondary and marked-up prices. I know a number of stores in different states in which I could walk in and buy, at any time, the van Winkles, BTACs and numerous other LEs at the same price they could have been bought 1 or 2 years ago. The price is high, but it it is stable, and has been for the last year at least. Same goes for FRLE, Birthday bourbon, etc. relatively stable prices. Many limited editions are not selling well when they're released, and people are balking at the prices of some. Distilleries have started moving towards more non-traditional products, finished bourbons (sorry but it's not bourbon anymore), blended whiskies, and supplies have been increasing steadily. I don't know if prices will drop, but I don't think they will go up anymore, except for some super aged product 30+ yr, when it becomes available, and the low cost aged stated stuff, as it is still good value. I think everything else will just stay around the same for the foreseeable future.

 

 

[bourbon4all]

8 hours ago, Surtur said:

I did in fact find a pewter top KY Spirit, some old Rare Breed, a bunch of plain old 101 and some other stuff I think but I the CGF, Split Label, and Donut has all seemingly been bought unfortunately.

Wow congrats on the pewter, that’s quite a find. What year Rare Breed?